Forex - EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: waiting game early week

 08:23 (GMT) 17 Jun

  [Forex Flows]

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Somewhat of a waiting game to start the week, very flat and tepid, as the market sits on its hands ahead of the FOMC later in the week and to a lesser extent to see if Draghi delivers a keynote speech at the ECB conference later today or just sticks to usual refrains. In the meantime, in a FT interview, ECB's Coeure says most economic news may be temporary but that signals from financial markets are 'more alarming'. Stand out comment is probably, that 'at the moment we are talking about contingency planning, but at some point in coming months we might well be facing a situation where risks have materialised'. Elsewhere Coeure is also a bit less negative on the economy (not that bad, services construction doing quite well), but it does at least suggest the ECB also has a possible conditional easing bias too, depending on how things play out through the summer into autumn. Draghi will be watched closely in his evening opening address.

Forex - EUR/USD - USD benefitting both from safe haven flow and better retail sales

 12:50 (GMT) 14 Jun

 [Forex Flows]

The USD was well bid against most currencies even before the retail sales data, helped by the tanker attacks and consequent safe haven flow. But retail sales were also on the strong side, primarily because of upward revisions to the April data which make it likely that Q2 will deliver reasonable personal consumption gains. EUR/USD shoud find support above 1.12, and USD/JPY should remain resilient as long as geopolitical concerns continue. GBP/USD and the commodity currencies may be more vulnerable.

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