Forex - Asia Highlights - Friday, 13 July 2018


 04:36 (GMT) 13 Jul

  [Forex Highlights]

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Asia Highlights - Friday, 13 July 2018 (0101-CBPS-C01)

US Overview:
Thursday saw mostly quiet trade with a mix of a soft US CPI and low initial claims having little impact, though was supportive for equities.

US Highlights:
- US Jun CPI +0.1% vs 0.2% exp, ex food/energy +0.2% as exp.
- US initial claims fell to 214k from 232k vs 225k exp.
- Fed's Harker said baseline for 3 2018 hikes, open to 4.
- Fed's Powell said economy in really good place, inflation target not fully achieved.

Currencies:
Very subdued trade throughout the day, EUR/USD toying with last Friday's low at 1.1667 with the bounce from a low at 1.1647 failing to reach 1.17. There was little reaction to the US data, softer than expected CPI matched up against initial claims at a 9 week low of 214k.
USD/JPY topped out around the N.American open at 112.62, not dipping far from there as the picture of soft inflation and strong employment giving equities a modest lift.
The UK Gov't White Paper on Brexit is out, reaction mixed among ministers but Mrs May still holding the keys to No.10 Downing Street as President Trump heads to London. EUR/GBP topped at the familiar .8850 level.
AUD/USD managed to regain the .74 handle but remains vulnerable to any escalation of US-China trade news. NZD is sticking close to its neighbour, the CAD also well in the commodity pack as WTI slips below $70 to counter the more hawkish tone from the BoC.
EUR/CHF ran higher to trade above 1.1700 and help USD/CHF trade above 1.00. No new news there but the US not threatening to quit NATO probably partly behind it.
EUR/SEK broke above the 10.20/10.30 range to a high at 10.37 as the Riksbank minutes proved dovish and core inflation was a touch shy of the 2.3% consensus at 2.2%.

Asia FX and News:
-I told May how to do Brexit but she wrecked it - the US trade deal is off: Trump ~ Sun
-N.Z. Manufacturing Expansion Slows Led by Hiring Outlook: PMI
-China's June Total Trade with U.S. +11.9% Y/y to $56.27 Bln
-Fed's Kashkari says businesses tell him they can't find workers
-Ross to Sell Equity Holdings After Faulted by Ethics Office ~ BBG
-Market remains hopeful of US and China resuming trade talks, with risk assets higher and AUD taking the lead of the majors. USD/JPY stretches the high slightly to 112.77 but unable to track the N225's bright performance, up over 2%. EUR/JPY getting offers queued at 131.50. GBP getting offer early in Asia as Trump reiterates his liking for a hard Brexit. Trump's opinion isn't really a surprising news, but he also threatened any future US-UK trade deal should there be no hard Brexit. Cable fell below 1.32 before a bounce off 1.317. EUR/GBP's climb stalls around 0.8850. AUD/USD higher but limited by Thurs high with USD under bid tone too. AUD/NZD advances to a 1-week high just shy of 1.095 with another disappointing PMI. EUR/USD hovers around 1.1665. EUR/CHF backs off from 1.17.

Data:

22:30 GMT - NZ: BNZ-Business NZ PMI (Jun) 52.8 (Prev: 54.5)

04:30 GMT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (May) -2.1% m/m (Prev: 1.8)

04:30 GMT - JP: Industrial Production (May P) -0.2% m/m (Prev: -0.2)

04:30 GMT - JP: Industrial Production (May P) 4.2% y/y (Prev: 4.2)

04:30 GMT - NL: Retail Trade (May) 4.2% y/y (Prev: 2.6)

Still To Be Released -

06:00 GMT - DE: Wholesale Price Index (Jun) % m/m (Prev: 0.8)

06:00 GMT - DE: Wholesale Price Index (Jun) % y/y (Prev: 2.9)

06:00 GMT - FI: CPI (Jun) % m/m (Prev: 0.1)

06:00 GMT - FI: CPI (Jun) % y/y (Prev: 1)

06:00 GMT - FI: GDP (May) % (Prev: 1.8)

06:00 GMT - NO: Trade Balance (Jun) NOK bn (Prev: 16.3)

07:00 GMT - ES: Flash CPI (Jun F) % m/m (Mkt: 0.3 Prev: 0.3)

07:00 GMT - ES: Flash CPI (Jun F) % y/y (Mkt: 2.3 Prev: 2.3)

07:00 GMT - ES: Flash HICP (Jun F) % m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: 0.2)

07:00 GMT - ES: Flash HICP (Jun F) % y/y (Mkt: 2.3 Prev: 2.3)

07:15 GMT - CH: Producer & Import prices (Jun) % m/m (Prev: 0.2)

07:15 GMT - CH: Producer & Import prices (Jun) % y/y (Prev: 3.2)

12:00 GMT - IS: Unemployment (Jun) % y/y (Prev: 2.2)

12:30 GMT - US: Import Price Index (Jun) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0.6)

13:00 GMT - CA: Existing Home Sales (Jun) 4cast: 1.5% m/m (Mkt: 1.5 Prev: -0.1)

14:00 GMT - US: Univ of Mich Sentiment (Jul P) (Mkt: 98 Prev: 98.2)

23:01 GMT - UK: Rightmove House Price Index (Jul) % m/m (Prev: 0.4)

23:01 GMT - UK: Rightmove House Price Index (Jul) % y/y (Prev: 1.7)

Events & Auctions:

00:00 GMT - US: Fed's Kashkari Speaks in Worthington, Minnesota

EU: ECB's de Guindos Speaks in Brussels

EU: EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council Meeting

TU: Sovereign Debt to be Rated by Fitch

11:00 GMT - UK: BoE's Cunliffe Speaks in Kendall, United Kingdom

16:30 GMT - US: Fed's Bostic Speaks in Virginia


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