Forex - Malaysia Flows: Ringgit stable as CPI eyed this week


 02:45 (GMT) 22 Jul

  [Forex Flows]

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Malaysia Flows: Ringgit stable as CPI eyed this week (0101-MRXS-C01)

USD/MYR moved slightly higher to 4.1170 this morning after opening flat at 4.1120 but traded quietly despite upside pressures from Fed commentators trying to curb expectations of a 50bps cut and weak South Korea export data this morning signaling another month of export weakness for Asia. Pair however eyed the foreign reserve data due later today and the June CPI due on Wednesday to gauge BNM stance. Resistance at 4.120 will only come into view upon strong oil move lower or worsening trade situation. Expect 4.1040 support to be threatened. 1M NDFs traded higher to 4.1100 from lows of 4.1023 on Friday. KLCi was down by 0.26% at last sight.


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:45 (GMT) 17 Jul

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 18 Jul 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index was firm through the European morning but slid lower to 97.200 levels in NY as IMF said the USD was overvalued. The impact of softer than expected US housing sector data was brief, but equities and UST yields slipped.

EUR/USD moved off 1.12 - touching 1.1230 helped by higher than expected Eurozone CPI at 1.3% y/y in June - while USD/JPY broke below 108.00 to lows of 107.87 in early trading this morning.

UK CPI was in line with expectations, but continued talk of "no deal" being pursued by PM candidate Johnson weighed on GBP sentiment, helped by comments from Brexit minister Barclay who said "no deal" was underpriced. A dip below 1.24 on GBP/USD however found buyers, with highs above 1.2450 as EUR/GBP slipped back from a high around .9050.

Canadian CPI and manufacturing shipments were broadly in line with expectations. A weaker USD saw USD/CAD as low as 1.3031 before a modest correction as oil fell. NZD was the strongest of the commodity trio.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Jun housing starts -0.9% to 1253k vs 1260k exp, permits -6.1% to 1220k vs 1300k exp.

- Fed's George said prepared to adjust views based on risks.

- Fed's Beige Book said economy expanded at modest pace, little changed from prior period.

- Eurozone CPI at 1.3% y/y in June was better than expected.

- UK headline CPI inflation was unchanged in June at 2.0% y/y.

- VIX index: 13.97 (+8.63%)

- Gold Spot: $1,425.83/oz (-0.06%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $63.66 ($-0.69)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.59 ($-0.19)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 179.42 (-0.37%)

- 10y UST: 2.045% (-6bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,219.85 (-0.42%); S&P: 2,984.42 (-0.65%); Nasdaq: 8,185.21 (-0.46%)

Data/Events Ahead:

U.S. data due includes weekly initial claims, with continued risk of distortions from the annual auto retooling, and Jul's Philly Fed, which was soft in Jun but less so than the Empire State data. Jun's leading index follows later. Fed's Bostic and Williams both speak again on Thursday.

U.K. retail sales data for June should show a further clear correction given the messages from recent survey data and anecdotal evidences. Indeed, we see sales falling 1.0% m/m, which would be the largest of three successive falls but only return the level of sales back to its January level.

Japan's June trade data is due this morning. We expect the downtrend in exports to continue, with a further decline of 3.0% y/y seen in June. Imports are slightly lower, likely dropped by 0.6% y/y. This will see trade balance to improve to a surplus of ¥554bn in June.

Australia's June employment data will also be of interest. We expect unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.2% in June. Employment change should remain strong at 22.0k in June but softening from May's figures at 42.3k.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies were in the red against the dollar on Wednesday as risk aversion crept back in following Trump's threats to impose more tariffs on China. PHP was the biggest loser down 0.45% against the dollar. IDR slid 0.34% and KRW was down 0.30% ahead of Thursday's central bank meetings for both where we are expecting rate cuts.

USD/CNH was unable to break above 6.8840 on Wednesday and was offered to 6.8740 in the NY hours although a rebound to 6.8780-levels followed. We continue to see pair within the range of 6.8600-6.9000. 1Y NDFs also crept lower to 6.9120 but a rebound to 6.9160+ levels was seen subsequently. USD/CNY was seen with a downside bias, but still remained near familiar levels, ranging between 6.8733 - 8833. The onshore pair is still likely to trade within range of 6.8500-6.9000 for the time being.

USD/SGD remained bid on Wednesday amid worsening external and domestic conditions, and 1.3600 handle was broken once again as highs of 1.3626 were printed. Pair is testing the resistance at 1.3625 and a break above will open the doors to 1.3682.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs rallied to 14053 highs on Wednesday before easing slightly to 14030-levels. Onshore spot was lifted above 13940 in early trading on Wednesday from last close of 13935 amid calls for easing from BI at the Thursday meeting. Another pickup in trade tensions overnight with the US threatening further China tariffs resulted in risk aversion again, weighing on Asian currencies, but a drop in oil prices helped cushion the decline in rupiah. Pair however extended gains to intraday highs of 13983 into the close. Pair is likely to extend gains to 14000 if BI sounds excessively dovish.

USD/INR 1M NDFs shot up above the 69 handle on Wednesday although the break above was not firm. Onshore spot drifted higher to 1.5-week highs of 68.885 on Wednesday following a rally in the previous session. US threat of further tariffs on China is boosting risk aversion once again, and the drop in oil prices was unable to cap the upside for the pair. Pair is likely to eye the 69 handle if a firmer break of 69.845 resistance is seen. Buyers likely to crowd out any moves below 68.500.

Data/Events Highlights:

Singapore's non-oil domestic export (NODX) and electronic export growth weakened further to -17.3% y/y and -31.9% y/y respectively in June.

Data/Events Ahead:

Key interest rate decision are eyed in Asia - from Bank Indonesia and Bank of Korea. We are expecting a 25bps cut from both.

Hong Kong's June unemployment rate will be reported as well.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT - JP: Trade Balance (sa) (Jun) JPY bn (Mkt: -153.2 Prev: -609.1)

23:50 GMT - JP: Exports (Jun) 4cast: -3% y/y (Mkt: -5.4 Prev: -7.8)

23:50 GMT - JP: Trade Balance (nsa) (Jun) 4cast: 554JPY bn (Mkt: 403.5 Prev: -968.3)

23:50 GMT - JP: Imports (Jun) 4cast: -0.6% y/y (Mkt: -0.2 Prev: -0.2)

n/a GMT - ID: BI - 7D Reverse Repo Rate (Jul 18) 4cast: 5.75% (Mkt: 5.75 Prev: 6)

01:00 GMT - KR: BoK 7-Day Repo Rate (Jul 18) 4cast: 1.5% (Mkt: 1.75 Prev: 1.75)

01:30 GMT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Jul) (Prev: 2)

01:30 GMT - AU: Unemployment (Jun) 4cast: 5.2% (Mkt: 5.2 Prev: 5.2)

01:30 GMT - AU: Employment (Jun) 4cast: 22 k (Mkt: 9 Prev: 42.3)

08:30 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Jun) % m/m (Mkt: -0.2 Prev: -0.3)

08:30 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Jun) 4cast: -1% m/m (Mkt: -0.3 Prev: -0.5)

08:30 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Jun) % y/y (Mkt: 2.6 Prev: 2.2)

08:30 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Jun) 4cast: 1.8% y/y (Mkt: 2.6 Prev: 2.3)

12:30 GMT - US: Initial Claims (Jul 13) k (Mkt: 216 Prev: 209)

12:30 GMT - US: Philadelphia Fed Survey (Jul) (Mkt: 5 Prev: 0.3)

14:00 GMT - US: Leading Indicator (Jun) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0)

23:30 GMT - JP: Natl CPI (Jun) 4cast: 0.8% y/y (Mkt: 0.7 Prev: 0.8)

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- n/a GMT - ID: Bank Indonesia Rate Decision and Briefing

- 12:30 GMT - CA: ADP Canada Releases June Payroll Estimates

- 13:30 GMT - US: Fed's Bostic speaks in Clarksville

- 15:30 GMT - US: 4 wk Bills Auction

- 15:30 GMT - US: 8 wk Bills Auction

- 17:00 GMT - US: 10 yr TIP Auction

- 18:15 GMT - US: Fed's Williams speaks on monetary policy


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:38 (GMT) 16 Jul

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 17 Jul 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded with a bullish bias overnight on Tuesday on stronger than expected US retail sales building up further on GBP weakness.

Trump threats he could increase tariffs on China and a continued dovish tone from Powell helping to restrain momentum in USD/JPY ahead of 108.40. Early gains for JPY and CHF on the crosses were partially corrected.

GBP/USD losses eventually touched below 1.24 in North America on rising concerns about a "no deal" Brexit after PM candidates Johnson and Hunt indicated a hardening of their stance against the "backstop".

EUR/USD fell to near but not through 1.12, while EUR/GBP got close to .9050.

USD/CAD was an early exception to the strong USD story, falling to 1.3019, but as oil built significant losses CAD gains were reversed and more, USD/CAD reaching 1.3090.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Jun retail sales +0.4% vs 0.2% exp, ex auto +0.4% vs 0.1% exp, ex auto and gas +0.7% vs 0.3% exp.

- US Jun import prices -0.9% vs -0.6% exp.

- US Jun industrial production 0.0% vs +0.1% exp, manufacturing +0.4% vs 0.3% exp.

- US May business inventories +0.3% as exp.

- US Jul NAHB homebuilders' index rose to 65 from 64 vs 64 exp.

- Fed's Powell repeated would act as appropriate to sustain expansion.

- The German Zew economic expectations indicator fell further in July to -24.5. This follows a sharp drop to -21.1 in June from -2.1 in May and remains well below the long-term average of 21.8.

- UK labor market data was mixed, with stronger than expected earnings data offset by weaker employment and vacancies numbers.

- VIX index: 12.86 (+1.42%)

- Gold Spot: $1,404.97/oz (-0.09%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $64.35 ($-2.13)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.60 ($-0.02)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.08 (-1.64%)

- 10y UST: 2.103% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,335.63 (-0.09%); S&P: 3,004.04 (-0.34%); Nasdaq: 8,222.80 (-0.43%)

Data/Events Ahead:

- U.S. Jun housing starts are expected to rise by 0.9% to 1280k and permits to rise by 0.1% to 1300k. The Fed's Beige Book is also due today.

- The final estimate of June HICP is out today and should confirm the flash number of 1.2% and core inflation at 1.1%.

- U.K. June CPI data is likely to further reverse the rise seen in April with the headline rate falling to a five-month low of 1.8% y/y. This headline outcome would also be below the BoE thinking as laid out in the May Inflation Report (which saw a 2.0% rate in June). Alongside, house price data may show some further slide towards zero inflation.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were a mixed bag on Tuesday. PHP was the biggest winner up 0.21% against the dollar, buoyed by domestic stocks entering the bull market. KRW and HKD were both up at 0.14% and 0.12% respectively. INR and JPY were the biggest losers, both at over -0.2% against the dollar. IDR and SGD were down at -0.11% and -0.17% respectively.

USD/CNH traded with a modest upside bias in the NY session and inched up to 6.8820 from 6.8740-levels at the start of Tuesday's trading as Trump threatened tariffs on China again. We continue to see pair within the range of 6.8600-6.9000. 1Y NDFs also crept higher to 6.9220+ levels but were trading closer to the 6.9200 handle at last look. USD/CNY still trading near familiar levels, ranging between 6.8702 - 8795 on Tuesday. The onshore pair is still likely to trade within range of 6.8500-6.9000 for the time being.

USD/SGD was bid up to 1.3580+ levels in the NY session from sub-1.3565 levels seen earlier in the day. Focus for the week ahead will be on Singapore's non-oil domestic export (NODX) and electronic exports data due this morning. We expect the growth of both components to remain in contraction in June but an improvement from May figures. Pair may edge higher towards the 1.3610 resistance as trade uncertainties build up again.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs rebounded from the dip to sub-13980 levels seen on Tuesday to trade just above 14000 handle in the NY session. Onshore spot traded horizontally around 13920 levels on Tuesday after printing over 1-year lows of 13895 at the start of the week. Focus after Jokowi's reform announcement will likely shift to implementation and effectiveness, and the BI meeting this week is also highly critical with growing calls for a rate cut. Pair was seen inching up to intraday highs of 13940 in afternoon as 2019 budget deficit target was increased from 1.84% of GDP to 1.93% of GDP. Gains likely to extend back to the 14000 handle as trade uncertainties remain.

USD/INR 1M NDFs shot up to the 69 handle earlier in NY but eased later to 68.900 as oil prices slid. Onshore spot traded close to 68.550 in early trading. June trade data reported on Monday highlighted not just the impact of slowing global economy and protectionist trade measures, but also weakening domestic demand. Soft oil prices however helped cushion the impact, but pair rose again to 68.760 in the afternoon. Decline is likely to be stalled by the strong 68.345 support, expect prices to go back up to the 69 handle as headwinds remain.

Data/Events Highlights:

Tuesday was quiet in Asia in data terms.

Data/Events Ahead:

Singapore's June NODX is scheduled for release in Asia today, and we expect further negative trends.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

00:30 GMT - AU: Westpac-MI Leading Index (Jun) % m/m (Prev: -0.08)

00:30 GMT - SG: NODX - Electronics (Jun) 4cast: -22% y/y (Mkt: -22 Prev: -31.4)

00:30 GMT - SG: NODX (Jun) 4cast: -7.1% y/y (Mkt: -9.6 Prev: -15.9)

08:30 GMT - UK: CPI (Jun) 4cast: -0.2% m/m (Mkt: 0 Prev: 0.3)

08:30 GMT - UK: Output Prices (unadj.) (Jun) % y/y (Mkt: 1.7 Prev: 1.8)

08:30 GMT - UK: CPI (Jun) 4cast: 1.8% y/y (Mkt: 2 Prev: 2)

08:30 GMT - UK: Input Prices (nsa) (Jun) % y/y (Mkt: 0.3 Prev: 1.3)

08:30 GMT - UK: Output Prices Core (unadj.) (Jun) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0.1)

08:30 GMT - UK: Input Prices (nsa) (Jun) % m/m (Mkt: -0.5 Prev: 0)

09:00 GMT - EU: HICP - Core (Jun F) % y/y (Mkt: 1.1 Prev: 1.1)

09:00 GMT - EU: CPI (Jun) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0.1)

09:00 GMT - EU: CPI (Jun F) % y/y (Mkt: 1.2 Prev: 1.2)

12:30 GMT - US: Housing Starts (Jun) 4cast: 1280k (Mkt: 1260 Prev: 1269)

12:30 GMT - US: Building Permits (Jun) 4cast: 1300k (Mkt: 1300 Prev: 1299)

12:30 GMT - CA: CPI (Jun) 4cast: 0% m/m (Mkt: -0.3 Prev: 0.4)

12:30 GMT - CA: CPI (Jun) 4cast: 2.2% y/y (Mkt: 2 Prev: 2.4)

12:30 GMT - CA: Manufacturing Shipments (May) 4cast: 3% m/m (Mkt: 2 Prev: -0.6)

23:50 GMT - JP: Trade Balance (sa) (Jun) JPY bn (Mkt: -153.2 Prev: -609.1)

23:50 GMT - JP: Exports (Jun) 4cast: -3% y/y (Mkt: -5.4 Prev: )

23:50 GMT - JP: Trade Balance (nsa) (Jun) 4cast: 554JPY bn (Mkt: 403.5 Prev: -968.3)

23:50 GMT - JP: Imports (Jun) 4cast: -0.6% y/y (Mkt: -0.2)

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- 03:35 GMT - JP: 20 yr Bonds Auction

- 18:00 GMT - US: Fed releases Beige Book


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:42 (GMT) 15 Jul

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 16 Jul 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index was modestly weaker through a quiet European morning, but was bid up later in NY as manufacturing activity in NY posted its biggest increase in more than two years. There had been some concern about this release after the June number had shown the weakest outcome since 2016, but the July index recovered to mid-range for the year.

USD/JPY was quiet holding below 108.00 in the NY session but EUR/USD fell to near 1.1250. Press reports speculated that the European parliament might not ratify the appointment of Ursula von Leyen, the EU Council's nomination for Commission President.

Despite the EUR weakness, GBP weakened against both the EUR and the JPY, EUR/GBP touching above .90 and GBP/JPY below 135.00.

With oil heavy USD/CAD edged up to 1.3050 but AUD/USD held its gains, moving AUD/CAD up to around .9180. NZ Q2 CPI came in-line with expectations at 0.6% q/q and kiwi was boosted slightly to inch up above 0.6720.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Jul Empire State Manufacturing rose to 4.3 from -8.6 vs 2.0 exp.

- VIX index: 12.68 (+2.34%)

- Gold Spot: $1,416.14/oz (+0.14%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $66.48 ($-0.24)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $59.36 ($-0.22)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 183.08 (-0.69%)

- 10y UST: 2.089% (-3bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,359.16 (+0.10%); S&P: 3,014.30 (+0.02%); Nasdaq: 8,258.19 (+0.17%)

Data/Events Ahead:

- A bunch of key data due in the U.S. on Tuesday. Jun retail sales is expected to decline by 0.1% with a 0.2% fall ex autos and a flat figure ex autos and gasoline. Jun import prices are due alongside retail sales. Shortly after we expect a 0.1% decline in Jun industrial production, but weakness will be largely in utilities. Manufacturing should see an improved 0.4% increase. After the industrial production release we will see May business inventories, where existing data implies a rise of 0.4%, and Jul's NAHB homebuilders' survey. May TICS capital flows are due at the end of the day. Tuesday's Fed speakers are moderate non-voter Bostic and dovish voter Evans.

- German Zew survey is due as well, and having fallen sharply to -21.1 in June (May: -2.1) we expect the German expectations index to correct a little higher to -19 in July. EZ trade data for May will also be released on Tuesday.

- UK June labor market data will also be eyed, again with the most notable aspect being the high-profile average earnings numbers. These may (at least for the headline number) see a drop of a notch to a nine-month low of 3.0% y/y, ie down additionally from the first two months of the year which at 3.5% were the highest in a decade. This should reflect softer single-month estimates, back down to 3.0% for the overall figure and to 3.5% for the regular pay single month. The rest of the labor market data may show more mixed messages, especially given the further drop in vacancies seen last time around (now at the lowest in almost a year). Admittedly, the unemployment rate may rise a notch from its current cycle-low of 3.8% possibly a least part a result of rising participation (most notably for women).

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies were in the green today. Despite China's weak Q2 GDP, several of China's monthly indicators showed signs of stabilisation, which gave Asian currencies a boost. IDR was the biggest winner up 0.63% against the dollar, as President Jokowi pledged for sweeping reforms to attract foreign investment into Indonesia. PHP and INR were up 0.24% and 0.20% against the dollar respectively.

USD/CNH traded horizontally around 6.8740 in the overnight session after inching up to 6.8864 highs earlier in the day. We continue to see pair within the range of 6.8731-6.9000. 1Y NDFs likewise traded close to the 6.9160-levels after being choppy earlier in Monday's Asian session. USD/CNY still trading near familiar levels, ranging between 6.8710 - 8825 on Monday. The onshore pair is still likely to trade within range of 6.8500-6.9000 for the time being.

USD/SGD traded quietly around 1.3560 levels in Monday's NY session after slipping from 1.3585+ levels earlier in the day. Focus for the week ahead will be on Singapore's non-oil domestic export (NODX) and electronic exports data, which will be released on Wednesday. We expect the growth of both components to remain in contraction in June but an improvement from May figures. We expect pair to eye the 1.3545 support next. If broken, will turn our attention to the 1.3510 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs rebounded from the dip to 13954 seen earlier on Monday but still remained confined to sub-14000 levels in the NY session. Onshore spot also continued to slide on Monday, and printed fresh over 1-year lows of 13895. On the downside, next support is seen at 13840 and we expect it to hold for now as BI easing is on the cards.

USD/INR 1M NDFs traded choppily around 68.750-levels on Monday, unable to find a clear direction. Onshore spot was relatively steady around 68.500 levels on Monday. Pair remains in consolidation and may eye the 68.845 resistance next.

Data/Events Highlights:

- China's GDP matched market expectations and slowed to 6.2% y/y in Q2 from 6.4% y/y in Q1. Despite the worst GDP print on the y/y basis since Q1 2009, the other monthly indicators showed signs of stabilisation, which posed downside risks to the pair.

- Indonesia's exports continued to remain weak, and dropped by 8.98% y/y in June, while imports held up by 2.80% y/y in June. This translated into a narrower trade surplus of USD196m.

- India's wholesale prices grew softer than expected by 2.02% y/y in June. Exports and imports came in negative territory, down 9.7% y/y and 9.1% y/y respectively which translated to a deficit of USD 15.28bn.

Data/Events Ahead:

No tier 1 data is due in Asia on Tuesday.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

08:30 GMT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (May) 4cast: 3.9% (Mkt: 3.8 Prev: 3.8)

08:30 GMT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (May) 4cast: 3% 3m y/y (Mkt: 3.1 Prev: 3.1)

09:00 GMT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (May) EUR bn (Mkt: 17.5 Prev: 15.3)

12:30 GMT - US: Retail Sales (ex Autos) (Jun) 4cast: -0.2% m/m (Mkt: 0.3 Prev: 0.5)

12:30 GMT - US: Retail Sales (Jun) 4cast: -0.1% m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: 0.5)

12:30 GMT - US: Import Price Index (Jun) % m/m (Mkt: -0.6 Prev: -0.3)

13:15 GMT - US: Capacity Utilization (Jun) 4cast: 77.9% (Mkt: 78.1 Prev: 78.1)

13:15 GMT - US: Industrial production (Jun) 4cast: -0.1% m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0.4)

14:00 GMT - US: NAHB Builders survey (Jul) (Mkt: 64 Prev: 64)

14:00 GMT - US: Business Inventories (May) 4cast: 0.4USD bn (Mkt: 0.4 Prev: 0.5)

20:00 GMT - US: Net Long-term TICS Flows (May) USD bn (Prev: 46.9)

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- 09:30 GMT - UK: 2037 1.75% Bond Auction (GBP 2.25bln)

- 12:00 GMT - UK: BoE's Carney speaks in Paris

- 12:15 GMT - US: Fed's Bostic moderates Fed listens event

- 15:30 GMT - US: 52 wk Bills Auction (USD 26 bln)

- 17:00 GMT - US: Fed's Powell speaks at Bank of France dinner

- 19:30 GMT - US: Fed's Evans speaks in Chicago


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