Forex - US North American Summary and Highlights 8 Nov


 21:06 (GMT) 08 Nov

  [Forex Highlights]

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Overview

US North American Summary and Highlights 8 Nov (0101-FXTH-C04)

The USD picked up after the FOMC provided few surprises but leaving tightening expectations intact, which saw equities edge lower and the UST curve a little flatter.

News highlights

- US initial claims -1k to 214k as exp.

- FOMC left rates unchanged as exp.

Currencies:

US North American Summary and Highlights 8 Nov (0101-FXTH-C01)

EUR/USD nudged a little below 1.14 ahead of the FOMC assisted by UST yields coming off the day's lows. After a brief correction above the figure the slide renewed to near 1.1350 after the decision.

USD/JPY also gained some momentum ahead of the FOMC, beating Wednesday's high but not reaching 114.00. While the USD was generally firmer after the FOMC with equities struggling 114.00 continued to provide resistance. EUR/JPY spent much of the session battling with 130.00 but fell back below 129.50 after the FOMC.

Cable fell below 1.31 as EUR/USD fell below 1.14 but EUR/GBP was heavy with talk in the UK press of Brexit being done early next week, though EU's Juncker still sounded cautious. Stabilization however was seen near .8700, allowing cable to be dragged lower by EUR/USD after the FOMC.

EUR/CHF is also heavy if still not far from 1.1450, USD/CHF moving up from near 1.00 to above 1.0050.

US North American Summary and Highlights 8 Nov (0101-FXTH-C02)

USD/CAD downside was limited ahead of the FOMC with Crude under pressure and after picked up from near 1.3100 well above 1.3150. AUD/CAD remains near recent highs but AUD/USD could not get traction over .7300 and slipped towards .7250 after the FOMC. NZD/USD had a close look at .6800 before slipping back, AUD and NZD dancing close again after the split earlier in the week.

EUR/SEK broke below the strong support at 10.2840 following comments from Riksbank's Ingves and Floden. NOK/SEK has broken below 1.0800 ahead of Norwegian GDP due Friday.

Bonds:

US North American Summary and Highlights 8 Nov (0101-FXTH-C03)

After quiet morning, US belly slightly offered into the FOMC announcement, briefly trims a touch out on the investment reference, but 2s to 5s then quickly back to testing the yield tops thereafter and the curve stays flatter on the day. 2s +0.4bps @ 2.96%, 5s +0.5bps @ 3.08%, 10s -0.7bps @ 3.23%, 30s -1.7bps @ 3.42%.

Agency Spreads: Freddie/Fannie 5s -0.1/+0.2 bps, 10s +0.1/+1.0 bps.

Swap Spreads: 2s +0.48bps, 5s -0.50bps, 10s -0.23bps.

Equities:

Equities were subdued ahead of the FOMC but slipped after. Energy led the losses with oil prices moving lower but overall downside pressure was modest.

To Be Released -

Data:

21:45 GMT - NZ: Retail Card Spending (Oct) % m/m (Mkt: 0.6 Prev: 1.1)

23:50 GMT - JP: M2 Money Supply (Oct) % y/y (Mkt: 2.8 Prev: 2.8)

05:30 GMT - NL: Manufacturing Production (Sep) % m/m (Prev: 1.3)

05:30 GMT - NL: Manufacturing Production (Sep) %y/y (Prev: 3.1)

06:00 GMT - NO: CPI (Oct) % m/m (Mkt: 0 Prev: 0.6)

06:00 GMT - NO: CPI (Oct) % y/y (Mkt: 3.4 Prev: 3.4)

06:00 GMT - NO: CPI Core (Oct) % m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: 0.5)

06:00 GMT - NO: CPI Core (Oct) % y/y (Mkt: 1.8 Prev: 1.9)

06:00 GMT - NO: PPI inc. Oil (Oct) % m/m (Prev: 1.5)

06:00 GMT - NO: PPI inc. Oil (Oct) % y/y (Prev: 21.1)

06:45 GMT - FR: Industrial Production (Sep) % m/m (Mkt: -0.3 Prev: 0.3)

06:45 GMT - FR: Industrial Production (Sep) % y/y (Mkt: 1.1 Prev: 1.6)

06:45 GMT - FR: Manufacturing Production (Sep) % m/m (Mkt: -0.2 Prev: 0.6)

06:45 GMT - FR: Manufacturing Production (Sep) % y/y (Mkt: 1.8 Prev: 1.9)

09:30 GMT - UK: Construction Output (sa) (Sep) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: -0.7)

09:30 GMT - UK: Construction Output (sa) (Sep) % y/y (Mkt: 1.3 Prev: 0.3)

09:30 GMT - UK: GDP (Sep) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0)

09:30 GMT - UK: GDP (Q3 P) % q/q (Mkt: 0.6 Prev: 0.4)

09:30 GMT - UK: Index of Services (Sep) % 3m/3m (Mkt: 0.5 Prev: 0.5)

09:30 GMT - UK: Index of Services (Sep) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0)

09:30 GMT - UK: Industrial Production (Sep) % m/m (Mkt: -0.1 Prev: 0.2)

09:30 GMT - UK: Industrial Production (Sep) % y/y (Mkt: 0.4 Prev: 1.3)

09:30 GMT - UK: Manufacturing Production (Sep) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: -0.2)

09:30 GMT - UK: Manufacturing Production (Sep) % y/y (Mkt: 0.4 Prev: 1.3)

09:30 GMT - UK: Trade Balance (Non-EU) (Sep) GBP bn (Mkt: -3.825 Prev: -4.219)

09:30 GMT - UK: Visible Trade Balance (Sep) GBP bn (Mkt: -11.395 Prev: -11.195)

10:00 GMT - GR: CPI (Oct) % y/y (Prev: 1.1)

10:00 GMT - GR: HICP (Oct) % y/y (Prev: 1.1)

12:30 GMT - AU: Housing Finance (Sep) % m/m (Mkt: -1 Prev: -2.1)

12:30 GMT - AU: Lending Finance (Sep) % m/m (Prev: -1.1)

13:30 GMT - US: PPI (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: 0.2)

13:30 GMT - US: PPI (ex Food & Energy) (Oct) 4cast: 0.2% m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: 0.2)

15:00 GMT - US: Univ of Mich Sentiment (Nov P) (Mkt: 97.9 Prev: 98.6)

15:00 GMT - US: Wholesale Inventories (Sep F) % m/m (Mkt: 0.3 Prev: 0.3)

Events & Auctions:

00:30 GMT - AU: RBA Monetary Policy Statement

03:30 GMT - JP: 3mth Bills Auction

10:00 GMT - EU: ECB's Coeure Speaks in Frankfurt

10:00 GMT - UK: 28-Day Bills Auction (GBP 0.5bn)

11:00 GMT - UK: 182-Day Bills Auction (GBP 2bn)

11:00 GMT - UK: 91-Day Bills Auction (GBP 1bn)

13:30 GMT - US: Fed's Williams Speaks in New York

13:45 GMT - US: Fed's Harker Speaks in New York

14:05 GMT - US: Fed's Quarles Speaks in Washington

18:30 GMT - UK: BoE's Haldane Speaks in London


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