Forex - Poland Preview: due Apr 30 - Apr CPI expected at 0.4% m/m, 1.5% y/y


 09:48 (GMT) 23 Apr

  [Economic Data]

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Poland Preview: due Apr 30 - Apr CPI expected at 0.4% m/m, 1.5% y/y (0101-KTNJ-C01)

We expect Polish Apr CPI to moderate slightly to 0.4% m/m 1.5% y/y from 1.7% y/y in March. The jump in March inflation was largely down to the unwinding of 2018 promotions in telecom prices, plus higher food prices and stronger than expected core inflation. However, for April, the main driver will be the energy regulator's decision and we expect current conditions to continue into April, whereby the regulator lowers fees related to distribution of electricity without increasing prices on electricity consumption. The fact that European Commission talks on the legislated power price freeze are unlikely to end before the European Parliament elections confirms the status quo for now. We would expect the recent rise in core CPI to remain contained going forward, especially as soft inflation is likely to persist in the Eurozone and hence imported inflation will remain contained. Our forecast is for annual CPI growth of 1.9% y/y in 2019, well within the NBP's 2.5% target.


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