Forex - US North American Summary and Highlights 13 Mar


 20:11 (GMT) 13 Mar

  [Forex Highlights]

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Overview

US North American Summary and Highlights 13 Mar (0101-JRZY-C04)

FX focus remains on the GBP, Cable pushing above 1.32 ahead of the vote against a no deal Brexit and further after an amended version ruling out no deal for good was passed. The USD was generally softer, slipping before and after Trump said he was in no hurry to complete a trade deal with China, comments that helped restrain equity gains.

News highlights

- US Jan durable goods orders +0.4% vs -0.4% exp, ex transport -0.1% vs +0.1% exp.

- US Feb PPI +0.1% vs 0.2% exp, ex food and energy +0.1% vs 0.2% exp.

- US Jan construction spending +1.3% vs 0.5% exp.

Currencies:

US North American Summary and Highlights 13 Mar (0101-JRZY-C01)

The GBP pushed higher ahead of the House of Commons vote against a no deal Brexit, traders encouraged by hints from Chancellor Hammond that he was open to a compromise deal with other parties, and talk that Thursday would see indicative votes on alternatives. While the USD was generally softer, EUR/GBP fell to around .8550. Cable got as high as 1.3275 as an amendment ruling out a no deal Brexit for good (another defeat for PM May) was narrowly passed, nudging still higher after the amended version was approved by a clear 321-278.

Despite generally firm equities, USD/JPY peaked ahead of 110.50, dipping with Boeing as Canada (and later the US) ceased 737 Max flights and testing 111.00 as Trump said he was in no rush to complete a trade deal with China.

US North American Summary and Highlights 13 Mar (0101-JRZY-C02)

EUR/USD had already crept above 1.1300, and bounced to 1.1335 as the USD took a hit on the Trump comments. Earlier the EUR was helped a little by stronger than expected Jan EU industrial production, up 1.4% after a 0.9% decline in Dec, despite Italian unemployment rising to 10.6% in Q4 from 10.3% in Q3. US data showing soft PPI and mixed durables helped maintain the picture.

EUR/NOK and USD/CAD both moved slightly below Tuesday low, helped by a firm oil price, USD/CAD falling below 1.33. AUD/USD gains failed to reach .71.

Bonds:

US North American Summary and Highlights 13 Mar (0101-JRZY-C03)

UST yields were pulled marginally higher by a UK gilt correction but remain firm into 30yr supply, still pressing the yield floor. Data ignored if slightly on the downside on core PPI and durables ex transport. 30s ticked a fraction lower after auction results not as impressive as the 10yr, if sound enough. 2s -0.2bps @ 2.45%, 5s +0.3bps @ 2.41%, 10s +0.7bps @ 2.61%, 30s +1.8bps @ 3.01%.

Agency Spreads: Freddie/Fannie 5s -0.1/-0.8 bps, 10s -1.4/-0.8 bps.

Swap Spreads: 2s +0.41bps, 5s -0.17bps, 10s -0.27bps.

Equities:

Equities advanced on optimism a no deal Brexit could be avoided, with gains in oil and US data on balance supportive. A correction higher for Boeing was however undermined by Canada, and later Trump stopping 737 Max flights, and later Trump stating he was in no hurry to get a trade deal with China saw the market generally come off the highs.

To Be Released -

Data

08:00 GMT - DE: CPI (Feb F) % m/m (Mkt: 0.5 Prev: 0.5)

08:00 GMT - DE: CPI (Feb F) % y/y (Mkt: 1.6 Prev: 1.6)

08:00 GMT - DE: HICP (Feb F) % m/m (Mkt: 0.5 Prev: 0.5)

08:00 GMT - DE: HICP (Feb F) % y/y (Mkt: 1.7 Prev: 1.7)

08:00 GMT - FI: CPI (Feb) % m/m (Prev: -0.4)

08:00 GMT - FI: CPI (Feb) % y/y (Prev: 1.1)

08:30 GMT - CH: Producer & Import prices (Feb) % m/m (Mkt: -0.1 Prev: -0.7)

08:30 GMT - CH: Producer & Import prices (Feb) % y/y (Mkt: -1 Prev: -0.5)

08:45 GMT - FR: CPI (Feb F) % m/m (Mkt: 0 Prev: 0)

08:45 GMT - FR: CPI (Feb F) % y/y (Mkt: 1.3 Prev: 1.3)

08:45 GMT - FR: HICP (Feb F) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0.1)

08:45 GMT - FR: HICP (Feb F) % y/y (Mkt: 1.5 Prev: 1.5)

12:00 GMT - IE: CPI (Feb) % m/m (Prev: -0.7)

12:00 GMT - IE: CPI (Feb) %y/y (Prev: 0.7)

12:00 GMT - IE: HICP (Feb) % m/m (Prev: -0.7)

12:00 GMT - IE: HICP (Feb) %y/y (Prev: 0.8)

12:30 GMT - CA: House Price Index (Jan) % m/m (Mkt: 0 Prev: 0)

12:30 GMT - US: Import Price Index (Feb) % m/m (Mkt: 0.3 Prev: -0.5)

12:30 GMT - US: Initial Claims (Mar 9) k (Mkt: 225 Prev: 223)

14:00 GMT - US: New Home Sales (Jan) 4cast: 590k (Mkt: 622 Prev: 621)

21:45 GMT - NZ: External Migration (sa) (Jan): (Prev: 5080)

Events & Auctions:

03:30 GMT - JP: 3mth Bills Auction

06:00 GMT - JP: Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity

08:00 GMT - EU: ECB's Nowotny speaks in Vienna

10:30 GMT - UK: 2049 Treasury Gilt Auction 1.75% (GBP 1.5bn)

10:30 GMT - IE: 364-day Bills Auction (0.5bn)

15:30 GMT - US: 4wk Bills Auction (USD60bn)

15:30 GMT - US: 8wk Bills Auction (USD35bn)

16:00 GMT - IE: Irish Central Bank's Lane speaks in Dublin

22.50 GMT - CA: Bank of Canada's Wilkins speaks


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