Forex - US North American Summary and Highlights 14 Feb


 21:06 (GMT) 14 Feb

  [Forex Highlights]

Sample Premium Content

Overview

US North American Summary and Highlights 14 Feb (0100-XKRK-C04)

The key US CPI release surprised on the upside, accompanied by a weak retail sales number. This initially lifted the USD while hitting equities and bonds, the front end in particular, but equities more than reversed their losses while the USD ended up weaker. As equities recovered pressure on USTs was felt more broadly across the curve.

News highlights

US North American Summary and Highlights 14 Feb (0100-XKRK-C01)

- US Jan CPI +0.5% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.3% vs 0.2% exp.

- US Jan retail sales -0.3% vs +0.2% exp, ex autos 0.0% vs +0.4% exp.

- US Dec business inventories +0.4% vs 0.3% exp.

Currencies:

US North American Summary and Highlights 14 Feb (0100-XKRK-C02)

A quiet European morning as traders looked to US data for inspiration led to a livelier afternoon as US CPI comfortably beat expectations, while retail sales were a miss. That initially proved a toxic mix for equity markets and while the USD generally reacted positively USD/JPY dragged its feet and that heaped more pain on EUR/JPY longs with a dip to 131.60. However, the USD was soon slammed back into reverse with EUR/USD eventually clearing 1.2400 after hitting a low at 1.2275, USD/JPY not matching that and allowing EUR/JPY a recovery above 133.00 as equities turned positive.

GBP was hit in the European morning, UK Foreign Minister Johnson getting the blame with a very pro-Brexit speech, but that not in any way a surprise. GBP did see a recovery later, but with EUR/GBP still well clear of .8850 and GBP/JPY below 150.00.

The NZD continues to lead the main commodity trio, not unusual for a Wednesday as the higher yielder, while AUD traders look to local employment data overnight. CAD got a modest lift as EIA data showed a big build in gasoline inventory, although US production edged higher again by 20k bpd.

EUR/SEK dipped as the Riksbank left policy unchanged with Ohlsson dissenting, but that short-lived. Jansson was altogether more dovish, still focused on the SEK 'not firming too rapidly'.

Bonds:

US North American Summary and Highlights 14 Feb (0100-XKRK-C03)

The high CPI, weak retail sales mix saw yields push higher in the US belly, 5s testing just through the recent 2.62%~ highs. The curve initially flatted, but long end losses built as initial equity losses were contained and gave way to a bounce back. 10 year yields at 4 year highs. 2s +6.4bps @ 2.17%, 5s +9.9bps @ 2.64%, 10s +8.4bps @ 2.91%, 30s +6.3bps @ 3.17%.

- Agency Spreads: Freddie/Fannie 5s -1.6/-0.8 bps, 10s +0.1/+0.3 bps.

- Swap Spreads: 2s +1.90bps, 5s +0.38bps, 10s +0.69bps.

Equities:

Futures were hit by the mix of a strong CPI and weak retail sales but after a weaker open recovered to neutral in the morning and built gains in the afternoon. Financials and technology led the way, with consumer discretionary also firm despite the weak retail sales data.

To Be Released -

23:50 GMT - JP: Key Machinery Orders (Dec) % m/m (Mkt: -2.3 Prev: 5.7)

23:50 GMT - JP: Key Machinery Orders (Dec) 4cast: 4.3% y/y (Mkt: 1.8 Prev: 4.1)

00:30 GMT - AU: Employment (Jan) 4cast: 37chg k (Mkt: 15 Prev: 34.7)

00:30 GMT - AU: Unemployment (Jan) 4cast: 5.4% (Mkt: 5.5 Prev: 5.5)

04:30 GMT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (Dec) % m/m (Prev: 0.09)

04:30 GMT - JP: Industrial Production (Dec F) 4cast: 2.7% m/m (Prev: 2.7)

04:30 GMT - JP: Industrial Production (Dec F) 4cast: 4.2% y/y (Prev: 4.2)

05:30 GMT - NL: Unemployment (sa) (Jan) % (Mkt: 4.3 Prev: 4.4)

07:00 GMT - NO: Trade Balance (Jan) NOK bn (Prev: 24.7)

08:00 GMT - ES: Flash CPI (Jan F) % m/m (Mkt: -1.1 Prev: -1.1)

08:00 GMT - ES: Flash CPI (Jan F) % y/y (Mkt: 0.5 Prev: 0.5)

08:00 GMT - ES: Flash HICP (Jan F) % m/m (Mkt: -1.5 Prev: -1.5)

08:00 GMT - ES: Flash HICP (Jan F) % y/y (Mkt: 0.7 Prev: 0.7)

08:00 GMT - IT: Trade Balance (EU) (Dec) EUR bn (Prev: 0.236)

08:00 GMT - IT: Trade Balance (Total) (Dec) EUR bn (Prev: 4380)

08:30 GMT - SE: SCB Unemployment (nsa) (Jan) % (Mkt: 7 Prev: 6)

10:00 GMT - EU: Trade Balance (nsa) (Dec) EUR bn (Mkt: 27 Prev: 26.3)

10:00 GMT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (Dec) EUR bn (Mkt: 22.3 Prev: 22.5)

10:00 GMT - GR: CPI (Jan) % y/y (Prev: 0.7)

10:00 GMT - GR: HICP (Jan) % y/y (Prev: 1)

13:30 GMT - US: Empire State Survey (Feb) (Mkt: 18 Prev: 17.7)

13:30 GMT - US: Initial Claims (Feb-10) k (Mkt: 228 Prev: 221)

13:30 GMT - US: Philadelphia Fed Survey (Feb) (Mkt: 22 Prev: 22.2)

13:30 GMT - US: PPI (Jan) 4cast: 0.4% m/m (Mkt: 0.4 Prev: -0.1)

13:30 GMT - US: PPI (ex Food & Energy) (Jan) 4cast: 0.3% m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: -0.1)

14:00 GMT - BE: Trade Balance (Dec) EUR mn (Prev: 592.4)

14:15 GMT - US: Capacity Utilization (Jan) 4cast: 77.1% (Mkt: 78 Prev: 77.9)

14:15 GMT - US: Industrial production (Jan) 4cast: 0.4% m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: 0.9)

15:00 GMT - US: NAHB Builders survey (Feb) (Mkt: 72 Prev: 72)

Data:

Events & Auctions

03:35 GMT - JP: Bills Auction

08:15 GMT - EU: ECB's Mersch Speaks in Paris

08:30 GMT - WLD: French Finance Minister Le Mairea and IMF's Lagarde Speak in Paris

09:30 GMT - ES: Tap of Oblig. 0.45 10/31/22 (EUR 2bn)

09:30 GMT - ES: Tap of Oblig. 1.4 4/30/28 (EUR 2bn)

09:30 GMT - ES: Tap of Oblig. 2.35 7/30/33 (EUR 2bn)

09:30 GMT - FR: Tap of OAT 0 2/25/21 (EUR 3bn)

09:50 GMT - FR: Tap of OAT 0 3/25/23 (EUR 3bn)

09:50 GMT - FR: Tap of OAT 6 10/25/25 (EUR 2bn)

10:30 GMT - UK: 2057 1.75% Bond Auction (GBP 2.25bn)

10:45 GMT - EU: ECB's Praet Speaks in Paris

10:50 GMT - FR: Tap of OATei 0.1 7/25/47 (EUR 500mn)

10:50 GMT - FR: Tap of OATei 1.85 7/25/27 (EUR 1bn)

10:50 GMT - FR: Tap of OATi 0.1 3/1/25 (EUR 500mn)

12:00 GMT - EU: ECB's Lautenschlager Speaks in Amsterdam

13:30 GMT - CA: ADP Publishes January Payrolls Report

18:00 GMT - US: 30yr TIPS Auction (USD 7bn)

18:30 GMT - CA: BoC's Schembri Speech

22:30 GMT - AU: To Be Released -


CurrenciesCountriesMarket Bulletins

Latest Currency Analysis

Available to subscribers only
Order Now