Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 09:02 (GMT) 13 Jun

  [Forex Highlights]

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Asia Close Highlights (0101-BHPK-C01)

13 June 2018

Regional Backdrop:

Asian currencies remained mostly in the red against the US dollar on Wednesday as the Fed rate hike was eyed. PHP (-0.58%) led the decline given the deteriorating current account deficit and BSP's unwillingness to turn hawkish. THB (-0.33%) and INR (-0.29%) also depreciated while the CNH (+0.05%) recoded mild gains on expectations of PBoC mirroring the Fed rate hike. Focus will be on China's May growth statistics due on Thursday before most Asian markets go away for the long Ramadan weekend.

USD/CNH traded up to intraday high of 6.4886 in the morning but was later seen with an offered tone, dipping to 6.3992 until last look. There are increasing expectations of a PBoC hike following the expected Fed June rate hike.

PBoC fixed mid-point at 6.4156 vs. previous close of 6.4040. USD/CNY saw a slight break above 6.4100 handle to a high of 6.4110 but reversed to consolidate around 6.4050 subsequently. 1Y NDFs also seen with a mildly offered tone, slipping to 6.5115 low at last look from a high of 6.5225 earlier in the session.

Gains in dollar as markets braced for a Fed rate hike supported USD/SGD. USD/SGD crept up, but faced strong resistance at 1.3372 area. Markets shrugged off impacts of Tuesday's Trump-Kim summit, and turned their attention to a series of central bank meetings slated for this week. With a seemingly certain hike from the Fed, markets will watch closely the Fed' narratives at its meeting.

Indonesia's onshore markets remain closed until June 20, for Ramadan.

USD/INR onshore spot gapped higher to open at 67.5950 on Wednesday vs. last close of 67.4800, and after some consolidation around 67.6000, pair was bid up to intraday high of 67.6925 at last check. A strong CPI report for May is likely to boost expectations of another RBI rate hike in August, which traditionally weighs on the rupee.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - On the larger scale of things, pair remains range-bound, and a move beyond 6.4100 handle should test a stronger resistance at 6.4322. For USD/CNY, a move beyond the 6.3900-6.4400 range will signal further downside or upside respectively.

USD/SGD - A clearance of resistance at 1.3372 will signal a firm upside momentum, the next strong hurdle is seen at 1.3406.

USD/IDR - We expect the rupiah to strengthen in the medium-term as BI continues to support the currency.

USD/INR - We expect upside pressures to persist despite the June RBI hike, and the break of resistances at 67.2900 and 67.6000 puts the focus back on the 68 handle.


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:41 (GMT) 11 Jun

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 12 June 2018

ASIA OUTLOOK

A quiet day as G7 anxieties were largely shrugged off and markets looked to the Trump-Kim summit with some optimism. This saw equities and UST yields a little firmer and the USD edging up in tight ranges. Lower Italian yields on a commitment to the EUR also supported risk sentiment.

Majors FX Highlights

The Bloomberg dollar index traded in a range-bound manner on Monday, lower than last Friday's high of 93.821 as the euro pared gains despite expectations of ECB hinting an unwinding at their meeting this week. Focus has now turned to the tone of the Fed statement before that, and the Trump-Kim summit happening in Singapore today. The two first meet at 9am SGT (0100 GMT) and the bilateral meeting begins at 9.15am SGT (0115 GMT) followed by a working lunch at 11.30am SGT (0330 GMT) before Kim Jong un departs Singapore at 2pm SGT (0600 GMT) and Trump later at 8pm SGT (1200 GMT).

EUR/USD jumped to fresh highs of 1.1821 on hawkish ECB expectations but retreated to <1.1780 later. GBP stumbled on much worse than expected production data, a wider than forecast trade deficit also adding weight but not pushing any of Cable, EUR/GBP or GBP/JPY far enough to threaten recent ranges. GBP resilience is notable given the busy data week and the upcoming Commons votes on the Brexit Bill. USD/JPY soared above 110 in late NY and was seen printing fresh highs of 110.38 at last look as risk-on sentiment persisted. USD/CAD has been both sides of 1.30, but a late rally in crude has tapped into below, if not by much. AUD and NZD kept well inside recent ranges.

Majors Data Highlights

After three successive rises, UK industrial output contracted afresh in April, the drop of 0.8% m/m being steeper than our own below-consensus prediction. The better April weather did little to revive construction output numbers released alongside. A rise of 0.5% repaired less than a quarter of the March slump, with the recession-bound sector showing a marked fall in y/y terms of 3.3%.

In the US, May CPI will be closely watched. We expect gains of 0.2% overall and ex food and energy, but a little below 0.2% before rounding. The core rate will be following a weak Apr so another soft number would get some attention. May budget data is also due. EU's June ZEW survey should see a small rebound to -3for the headline German number, up from -8.2. The EZ equivalent is expected to fall back further to 1.0 from 2.4. Key votes on Brexit in the UK as well, but keep early focus on Trump-Kim summit in Singapore today.

Emerging Asia FX Highlights

USD/Asians remained in broad consolidation in the NY hours but saw fresh gains in early Asian trading hours this morning as focus turned to Trump-Kim summit. USD/CNY 1Y NDFs saw some downside to 6.5080 in early NY Hours on Monday but inched back up to 6.5100+ levels later. Fresh gains towards 6.5200 came by at last look this morning. USD/SGD was bid up from the Asia-session low of 1.3327 printed on Monday but pair entered consolidation around 1.3350 as G7 outcome was shrugged off by the NY traders. Focus has however turned to Trump-Kim summit in Singapore this morning which saw pair jump to 1.3355 high at last look. USD/IDR 1M NDFs printed a low of 14042 in the Asian hours on Monday but recovered to 14080 thereafter. USD/INR 1M NDFs dipped to a low of 67.6000 in the Asian hours on Monday but pared losses to bid up to 67.8000 in late NY hours.

Emerging Asia Data Highlights

Malaysia's April industrial production figure stands at 4.6% y/y up from 3.1% in March. Eyes today on Singapore's April retail sales and India's May CPI and April IP due after the close of markets. Philippines remains closed for Independence Day, and Indonesia is away until June 21 for Ramadan holidays.

OVERNIGHT NEWS HIGHLIGHTS

- US 3yr auction yielded 2.664%, 0.1bp tail, b/c 2.83.

- US 10yr auction yielded 2.962%, 0.3bp through, b/c 2.59.

- VIX index: 12.35 (+1.40%)

- Gold Spot: $1,299.51/oz (-0.08%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $76.46 ($0.00)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $66.12 (+$0.02)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 199.39 (-0.32%)

- 10y UST: 2.952% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 25,322.31 (+0.02%); S&P: 2,782.00 (+0.11%); Nasdaq: 7,659.93 (+0.19%)

ASIA NEWS

China: The Chinese central bank is likely to raise rates of reverse repo and MLF by small margin, Economic Information Daily reports, citing China Minsheng Bank researcher Wen Bin. - BBG

India: RBI Sold Net $2.48B of Foreign Currency in April. - BBG

CURRENCIES

G7 kept the headline writers busy but the upshot has been no stretch of recent parameters for FX traders to get their teeth into. EUR/USD has tried both sides of 1.1800 but looks short of any early catalyst to stretch it outside of 1.1750/1.1850 - maybe US CPI can change things; we doubt the ZEW survey will.

GBP stumbled on much worse than expected production data, a wider than forecast trade deficit also adding weight but not pushing any of Cable, EUR/GBP or GBP/JPY far enough to threaten recent ranges. GBP resilience is notable given the busy data week and the upcoming Commons votes on the Brexit Bill.

USD/JPY got a lift, nudging a little above 110, from a solid equity reactions to G7, UST yields also lending some support. Fairly flat positioning leaves few targets for fast money to pursue.

USD/CAD has been both sides of 1.30, but a late rally in crude has tapped into below, if not by much. AUD and NZD kept well inside recent ranges.

NOK took an early hit from lower than expected inflation, headline and core CPI both missing consensus by 0.2% on a y/y basis. Damage was limited here too.

Little movement in the CHF, EUR/CHF either side of 1.16, USD/CHF managing to hold above last week's lows. Swiss sight deposits almost unchanged on the week to suggest the SNB remaining out of the FX market.

BONDS

With the global risk let up Monday, even if the threat of more risk aversion is never far away, USTs were able to refocus on re-cheapening into the concentrated early week supply pre-FOMC. The 3 and 10 year supply saw respectable receptions, but with little market response. 2s +2.9bps @ 2.53%, 5s +1.7bps @ 2.80%, 10s +1.1bps @ 2.96%, 30s +0.9bps @ 3.10%.

Agency Spreads: Freddie/Fannie 5s -0.2/-0.1 bps, 10s -0.7/-0.3 bps.

Swap Spreads: 2s -0.03bps, 5s -0.02bps, 10s +0.15bps.

EQUITIES

Equities shrugged off the post G7 acrimony in cautious trade ahead of the Trump-Kim summit and key data. Lower Italian yields were also supportive. The indices saw moderate gains in subdued trading before a late dip reduced the gains to marginal.

ASIA CURRENCIES

USD/CNY: 1Y NDFs saw some downside to 6.5080 in early NY Hours on Monday but inched back up to 6.5100+ levels later. Fresh gains towards 6.5200 came by at last look this morning. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 6.4064 vs. previous close of 6.4090. USD/CNY onshore spot opened at 6.4059 and traded to intraday low of 6.4000 before closing at 6.4047. For USD/CNY, a move beyond the 6.3900-6.4400 range will signal further downside or upside respectively.

USD/CNH: Pair dipped to a low of 6.3937 in early NY hours before inching back to 6.4000-handle in late NY hours, although fresh gains to 6.4035 were seen in early Asian hours as the focus turned to Trump-Kim summit. A move beyond 6.4150 may trigger test of a further 6.4322 resistance.

USD/SGD: Pair was bid up from the Asia-session low of 1.3327 printed on Monday but pair entered consolidation around 1.3350 as G7 outcome was shrugged off by the NY traders. Focus has however turned to Trump-Kim summit in Singapore this morning which saw pair jump to 1.3355 high at last look. The pair is likely to be range bound between 1.3305-1.3368, ahead of major risk events this week, including Trump-Kim summit, Fed, ECB and BoJ meeting. On the data front, Singapore's retail sales slated for Tuesday is likely to rebound by 6.1% y/y in April, after a dip by 1.5% y/y.

USD/IDR: 1M NDFs printed a low of 14042 in the Asian hours on Monday but recovered to 14080 thereafter. Indonesia's onshore markets remain closed until June 20, for Ramadan. We expect the rupiah to strengthen in the medium-term as BI continues to support the currency.

USD/INR: 1M NDFs dipped to a low of 67.6000 in the Asian hours on Monday but pared losses to bid up to 67.8000 in late NY hours. Onshore spot gapped a notch lower to open at 67.4600 on Monday vs. last close of 67.5000 and slid to a low of 67.2700 before recovering to 67.4650 into the close. Eyes on the May CPI data due on Tuesday, and we expect upside pressures to persist despite the RBI hike. Resistance turned support at 67.2900 appears to be at risk, but the 67 handle should remain intact.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

- 23:50 GMT - JP: PPI (May) [Prev: 0.1]

- 23:50 GMT - JP: PPI (May) [Prev: 2]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: Housing Finance (Apr) [Prev: -2.2]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: Lending Finance (Apr) [Prev: -9]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (May) [Prev: 10]

- 04:30 GMT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Apr) [Prev: -0.3]

- 05:00 GMT - SG: Retail Sales (Apr) [Prev: -1.5]

- 05:00 GMT - SG: Retail Sales (sa) (Apr) [Prev: 2.3]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Apr) [Prev: 2.6]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Claimant Count Change (May) [Prev: 31.2]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Claimant Count Rate (May) [Prev: 2.5]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Apr) [Prev: 4.2]

- 09:00 GMT - EU: ZEW (Economic Sentiment) (Jun) [Prev: 2.4]

- 10:00 GMT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May) [Prev: 104.8]

- 12:00 GMT - IN: CPI (May) [Prev: 4.58]

- 12:00 GMT - IN: Industrial Production (Apr) [Prev: 4.4]

- 12:30 GMT - US: CPI (May) [Prev: 0.2]

- 12:30 GMT - US: CPI (ex Food & Energy) (May) [Prev: 0.1]

- 18:00 GMT - US: Budget (May) [Prev: 214.3]

- 22:45 GMT - NZ: Food Price (May) [Prev: 0.1]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- PH: Market Holiday - Independence Day

- ID: Market Holiday - Hari Raya Aidilfitri


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:41 (GMT) 11 Jun

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 12 June 2018

ASIA OUTLOOK

A quiet day as G7 anxieties were largely shrugged off and markets looked to the Trump-Kim summit with some optimism. This saw equities and UST yields a little firmer and the USD edging up in tight ranges. Lower Italian yields on a commitment to the EUR also supported risk sentiment.

Majors FX Highlights

The Bloomberg dollar index traded in a range-bound manner on Monday, lower than last Friday's high of 93.821 as the euro pared gains despite expectations of ECB hinting an unwinding at their meeting this week. Focus has now turned to the tone of the Fed statement before that, and the Trump-Kim summit happening in Singapore today. The two first meet at 9am SGT (0100 GMT) and the bilateral meeting begins at 9.15am SGT (0115 GMT) followed by a working lunch at 11.30am SGT (0330 GMT) before Kim Jong un departs Singapore at 2pm SGT (0600 GMT) and Trump later at 8pm SGT (1200 GMT).

EUR/USD jumped to fresh highs of 1.1821 on hawkish ECB expectations but retreated to <1.1780 later. GBP stumbled on much worse than expected production data, a wider than forecast trade deficit also adding weight but not pushing any of Cable, EUR/GBP or GBP/JPY far enough to threaten recent ranges. GBP resilience is notable given the busy data week and the upcoming Commons votes on the Brexit Bill. USD/JPY soared above 110 in late NY and was seen printing fresh highs of 110.38 at last look as risk-on sentiment persisted. USD/CAD has been both sides of 1.30, but a late rally in crude has tapped into below, if not by much. AUD and NZD kept well inside recent ranges.

Majors Data Highlights

After three successive rises, UK industrial output contracted afresh in April, the drop of 0.8% m/m being steeper than our own below-consensus prediction. The better April weather did little to revive construction output numbers released alongside. A rise of 0.5% repaired less than a quarter of the March slump, with the recession-bound sector showing a marked fall in y/y terms of 3.3%.

In the US, May CPI will be closely watched. We expect gains of 0.2% overall and ex food and energy, but a little below 0.2% before rounding. The core rate will be following a weak Apr so another soft number would get some attention. May budget data is also due. EU's June ZEW survey should see a small rebound to -3for the headline German number, up from -8.2. The EZ equivalent is expected to fall back further to 1.0 from 2.4. Key votes on Brexit in the UK as well, but keep early focus on Trump-Kim summit in Singapore today.

Emerging Asia FX Highlights

USD/Asians remained in broad consolidation in the NY hours but saw fresh gains in early Asian trading hours this morning as focus turned to Trump-Kim summit. USD/CNY 1Y NDFs saw some downside to 6.5080 in early NY Hours on Monday but inched back up to 6.5100+ levels later. Fresh gains towards 6.5200 came by at last look this morning. USD/SGD was bid up from the Asia-session low of 1.3327 printed on Monday but pair entered consolidation around 1.3350 as G7 outcome was shrugged off by the NY traders. Focus has however turned to Trump-Kim summit in Singapore this morning which saw pair jump to 1.3355 high at last look. USD/IDR 1M NDFs printed a low of 14042 in the Asian hours on Monday but recovered to 14080 thereafter. USD/INR 1M NDFs dipped to a low of 67.6000 in the Asian hours on Monday but pared losses to bid up to 67.8000 in late NY hours.

Emerging Asia Data Highlights

Malaysia's April industrial production figure stands at 4.6% y/y up from 3.1% in March. Eyes today on Singapore's April retail sales and India's May CPI and April IP due after the close of markets. Philippines remains closed for Independence Day, and Indonesia is away until June 21 for Ramadan holidays.

OVERNIGHT NEWS HIGHLIGHTS

- US 3yr auction yielded 2.664%, 0.1bp tail, b/c 2.83.

- US 10yr auction yielded 2.962%, 0.3bp through, b/c 2.59.

- VIX index: 12.35 (+1.40%)

- Gold Spot: $1,299.51/oz (-0.08%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $76.46 ($0.00)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $66.12 (+$0.02)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 199.39 (-0.32%)

- 10y UST: 2.952% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 25,322.31 (+0.02%); S&P: 2,782.00 (+0.11%); Nasdaq: 7,659.93 (+0.19%)

ASIA NEWS

China: The Chinese central bank is likely to raise rates of reverse repo and MLF by small margin, Economic Information Daily reports, citing China Minsheng Bank researcher Wen Bin. - BBG

India: RBI Sold Net $2.48B of Foreign Currency in April. - BBG

CURRENCIES

G7 kept the headline writers busy but the upshot has been no stretch of recent parameters for FX traders to get their teeth into. EUR/USD has tried both sides of 1.1800 but looks short of any early catalyst to stretch it outside of 1.1750/1.1850 - maybe US CPI can change things; we doubt the ZEW survey will.

GBP stumbled on much worse than expected production data, a wider than forecast trade deficit also adding weight but not pushing any of Cable, EUR/GBP or GBP/JPY far enough to threaten recent ranges. GBP resilience is notable given the busy data week and the upcoming Commons votes on the Brexit Bill.

USD/JPY got a lift, nudging a little above 110, from a solid equity reactions to G7, UST yields also lending some support. Fairly flat positioning leaves few targets for fast money to pursue.

USD/CAD has been both sides of 1.30, but a late rally in crude has tapped into below, if not by much. AUD and NZD kept well inside recent ranges.

NOK took an early hit from lower than expected inflation, headline and core CPI both missing consensus by 0.2% on a y/y basis. Damage was limited here too.

Little movement in the CHF, EUR/CHF either side of 1.16, USD/CHF managing to hold above last week's lows. Swiss sight deposits almost unchanged on the week to suggest the SNB remaining out of the FX market.

BONDS

With the global risk let up Monday, even if the threat of more risk aversion is never far away, USTs were able to refocus on re-cheapening into the concentrated early week supply pre-FOMC. The 3 and 10 year supply saw respectable receptions, but with little market response. 2s +2.9bps @ 2.53%, 5s +1.7bps @ 2.80%, 10s +1.1bps @ 2.96%, 30s +0.9bps @ 3.10%.

Agency Spreads: Freddie/Fannie 5s -0.2/-0.1 bps, 10s -0.7/-0.3 bps.

Swap Spreads: 2s -0.03bps, 5s -0.02bps, 10s +0.15bps.

EQUITIES

Equities shrugged off the post G7 acrimony in cautious trade ahead of the Trump-Kim summit and key data. Lower Italian yields were also supportive. The indices saw moderate gains in subdued trading before a late dip reduced the gains to marginal.

ASIA CURRENCIES

USD/CNY: 1Y NDFs saw some downside to 6.5080 in early NY Hours on Monday but inched back up to 6.5100+ levels later. Fresh gains towards 6.5200 came by at last look this morning. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 6.4064 vs. previous close of 6.4090. USD/CNY onshore spot opened at 6.4059 and traded to intraday low of 6.4000 before closing at 6.4047. For USD/CNY, a move beyond the 6.3900-6.4400 range will signal further downside or upside respectively.

USD/CNH: Pair dipped to a low of 6.3937 in early NY hours before inching back to 6.4000-handle in late NY hours, although fresh gains to 6.4035 were seen in early Asian hours as the focus turned to Trump-Kim summit. A move beyond 6.4150 may trigger test of a further 6.4322 resistance.

USD/SGD: Pair was bid up from the Asia-session low of 1.3327 printed on Monday but pair entered consolidation around 1.3350 as G7 outcome was shrugged off by the NY traders. Focus has however turned to Trump-Kim summit in Singapore this morning which saw pair jump to 1.3355 high at last look. The pair is likely to be range bound between 1.3305-1.3368, ahead of major risk events this week, including Trump-Kim summit, Fed, ECB and BoJ meeting. On the data front, Singapore's retail sales slated for Tuesday is likely to rebound by 6.1% y/y in April, after a dip by 1.5% y/y.

USD/IDR: 1M NDFs printed a low of 14042 in the Asian hours on Monday but recovered to 14080 thereafter. Indonesia's onshore markets remain closed until June 20, for Ramadan. We expect the rupiah to strengthen in the medium-term as BI continues to support the currency.

USD/INR: 1M NDFs dipped to a low of 67.6000 in the Asian hours on Monday but pared losses to bid up to 67.8000 in late NY hours. Onshore spot gapped a notch lower to open at 67.4600 on Monday vs. last close of 67.5000 and slid to a low of 67.2700 before recovering to 67.4650 into the close. Eyes on the May CPI data due on Tuesday, and we expect upside pressures to persist despite the RBI hike. Resistance turned support at 67.2900 appears to be at risk, but the 67 handle should remain intact.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

- 23:50 GMT - JP: PPI (May) [Prev: 0.1]

- 23:50 GMT - JP: PPI (May) [Prev: 2]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: Housing Finance (Apr) [Prev: -2.2]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: Lending Finance (Apr) [Prev: -9]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (May) [Prev: 10]

- 04:30 GMT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Apr) [Prev: -0.3]

- 05:00 GMT - SG: Retail Sales (Apr) [Prev: -1.5]

- 05:00 GMT - SG: Retail Sales (sa) (Apr) [Prev: 2.3]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Apr) [Prev: 2.6]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Claimant Count Change (May) [Prev: 31.2]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Claimant Count Rate (May) [Prev: 2.5]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Apr) [Prev: 4.2]

- 09:00 GMT - EU: ZEW (Economic Sentiment) (Jun) [Prev: 2.4]

- 10:00 GMT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May) [Prev: 104.8]

- 12:00 GMT - IN: CPI (May) [Prev: 4.58]

- 12:00 GMT - IN: Industrial Production (Apr) [Prev: 4.4]

- 12:30 GMT - US: CPI (May) [Prev: 0.2]

- 12:30 GMT - US: CPI (ex Food & Energy) (May) [Prev: 0.1]

- 18:00 GMT - US: Budget (May) [Prev: 214.3]

- 22:45 GMT - NZ: Food Price (May) [Prev: 0.1]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- PH: Market Holiday - Independence Day

- ID: Market Holiday - Hari Raya Aidilfitri


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:41 (GMT) 11 Jun

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 12 June 2018

ASIA OUTLOOK

A quiet day as G7 anxieties were largely shrugged off and markets looked to the Trump-Kim summit with some optimism. This saw equities and UST yields a little firmer and the USD edging up in tight ranges. Lower Italian yields on a commitment to the EUR also supported risk sentiment.

Majors FX Highlights

The Bloomberg dollar index traded in a range-bound manner on Monday, lower than last Friday's high of 93.821 as the euro pared gains despite expectations of ECB hinting an unwinding at their meeting this week. Focus has now turned to the tone of the Fed statement before that, and the Trump-Kim summit happening in Singapore today. The two first meet at 9am SGT (0100 GMT) and the bilateral meeting begins at 9.15am SGT (0115 GMT) followed by a working lunch at 11.30am SGT (0330 GMT) before Kim Jong un departs Singapore at 2pm SGT (0600 GMT) and Trump later at 8pm SGT (1200 GMT).

EUR/USD jumped to fresh highs of 1.1821 on hawkish ECB expectations but retreated to <1.1780 later. GBP stumbled on much worse than expected production data, a wider than forecast trade deficit also adding weight but not pushing any of Cable, EUR/GBP or GBP/JPY far enough to threaten recent ranges. GBP resilience is notable given the busy data week and the upcoming Commons votes on the Brexit Bill. USD/JPY soared above 110 in late NY and was seen printing fresh highs of 110.38 at last look as risk-on sentiment persisted. USD/CAD has been both sides of 1.30, but a late rally in crude has tapped into below, if not by much. AUD and NZD kept well inside recent ranges.

Majors Data Highlights

After three successive rises, UK industrial output contracted afresh in April, the drop of 0.8% m/m being steeper than our own below-consensus prediction. The better April weather did little to revive construction output numbers released alongside. A rise of 0.5% repaired less than a quarter of the March slump, with the recession-bound sector showing a marked fall in y/y terms of 3.3%.

In the US, May CPI will be closely watched. We expect gains of 0.2% overall and ex food and energy, but a little below 0.2% before rounding. The core rate will be following a weak Apr so another soft number would get some attention. May budget data is also due. EU's June ZEW survey should see a small rebound to -3for the headline German number, up from -8.2. The EZ equivalent is expected to fall back further to 1.0 from 2.4. Key votes on Brexit in the UK as well, but keep early focus on Trump-Kim summit in Singapore today.

Emerging Asia FX Highlights

USD/Asians remained in broad consolidation in the NY hours but saw fresh gains in early Asian trading hours this morning as focus turned to Trump-Kim summit. USD/CNY 1Y NDFs saw some downside to 6.5080 in early NY Hours on Monday but inched back up to 6.5100+ levels later. Fresh gains towards 6.5200 came by at last look this morning. USD/SGD was bid up from the Asia-session low of 1.3327 printed on Monday but pair entered consolidation around 1.3350 as G7 outcome was shrugged off by the NY traders. Focus has however turned to Trump-Kim summit in Singapore this morning which saw pair jump to 1.3355 high at last look. USD/IDR 1M NDFs printed a low of 14042 in the Asian hours on Monday but recovered to 14080 thereafter. USD/INR 1M NDFs dipped to a low of 67.6000 in the Asian hours on Monday but pared losses to bid up to 67.8000 in late NY hours.

Emerging Asia Data Highlights

Malaysia's April industrial production figure stands at 4.6% y/y up from 3.1% in March. Eyes today on Singapore's April retail sales and India's May CPI and April IP due after the close of markets. Philippines remains closed for Independence Day, and Indonesia is away until June 21 for Ramadan holidays.

OVERNIGHT NEWS HIGHLIGHTS

- US 3yr auction yielded 2.664%, 0.1bp tail, b/c 2.83.

- US 10yr auction yielded 2.962%, 0.3bp through, b/c 2.59.

- VIX index: 12.35 (+1.40%)

- Gold Spot: $1,299.51/oz (-0.08%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $76.46 ($0.00)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $66.12 (+$0.02)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 199.39 (-0.32%)

- 10y UST: 2.952% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 25,322.31 (+0.02%); S&P: 2,782.00 (+0.11%); Nasdaq: 7,659.93 (+0.19%)

ASIA NEWS

China: The Chinese central bank is likely to raise rates of reverse repo and MLF by small margin, Economic Information Daily reports, citing China Minsheng Bank researcher Wen Bin. - BBG

India: RBI Sold Net $2.48B of Foreign Currency in April. - BBG

CURRENCIES

G7 kept the headline writers busy but the upshot has been no stretch of recent parameters for FX traders to get their teeth into. EUR/USD has tried both sides of 1.1800 but looks short of any early catalyst to stretch it outside of 1.1750/1.1850 - maybe US CPI can change things; we doubt the ZEW survey will.

GBP stumbled on much worse than expected production data, a wider than forecast trade deficit also adding weight but not pushing any of Cable, EUR/GBP or GBP/JPY far enough to threaten recent ranges. GBP resilience is notable given the busy data week and the upcoming Commons votes on the Brexit Bill.

USD/JPY got a lift, nudging a little above 110, from a solid equity reactions to G7, UST yields also lending some support. Fairly flat positioning leaves few targets for fast money to pursue.

USD/CAD has been both sides of 1.30, but a late rally in crude has tapped into below, if not by much. AUD and NZD kept well inside recent ranges.

NOK took an early hit from lower than expected inflation, headline and core CPI both missing consensus by 0.2% on a y/y basis. Damage was limited here too.

Little movement in the CHF, EUR/CHF either side of 1.16, USD/CHF managing to hold above last week's lows. Swiss sight deposits almost unchanged on the week to suggest the SNB remaining out of the FX market.

BONDS

With the global risk let up Monday, even if the threat of more risk aversion is never far away, USTs were able to refocus on re-cheapening into the concentrated early week supply pre-FOMC. The 3 and 10 year supply saw respectable receptions, but with little market response. 2s +2.9bps @ 2.53%, 5s +1.7bps @ 2.80%, 10s +1.1bps @ 2.96%, 30s +0.9bps @ 3.10%.

Agency Spreads: Freddie/Fannie 5s -0.2/-0.1 bps, 10s -0.7/-0.3 bps.

Swap Spreads: 2s -0.03bps, 5s -0.02bps, 10s +0.15bps.

EQUITIES

Equities shrugged off the post G7 acrimony in cautious trade ahead of the Trump-Kim summit and key data. Lower Italian yields were also supportive. The indices saw moderate gains in subdued trading before a late dip reduced the gains to marginal.

ASIA CURRENCIES

USD/CNY: 1Y NDFs saw some downside to 6.5080 in early NY Hours on Monday but inched back up to 6.5100+ levels later. Fresh gains towards 6.5200 came by at last look this morning. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 6.4064 vs. previous close of 6.4090. USD/CNY onshore spot opened at 6.4059 and traded to intraday low of 6.4000 before closing at 6.4047. For USD/CNY, a move beyond the 6.3900-6.4400 range will signal further downside or upside respectively.

USD/CNH: Pair dipped to a low of 6.3937 in early NY hours before inching back to 6.4000-handle in late NY hours, although fresh gains to 6.4035 were seen in early Asian hours as the focus turned to Trump-Kim summit. A move beyond 6.4150 may trigger test of a further 6.4322 resistance.

USD/SGD: Pair was bid up from the Asia-session low of 1.3327 printed on Monday but pair entered consolidation around 1.3350 as G7 outcome was shrugged off by the NY traders. Focus has however turned to Trump-Kim summit in Singapore this morning which saw pair jump to 1.3355 high at last look. The pair is likely to be range bound between 1.3305-1.3368, ahead of major risk events this week, including Trump-Kim summit, Fed, ECB and BoJ meeting. On the data front, Singapore's retail sales slated for Tuesday is likely to rebound by 6.1% y/y in April, after a dip by 1.5% y/y.

USD/IDR: 1M NDFs printed a low of 14042 in the Asian hours on Monday but recovered to 14080 thereafter. Indonesia's onshore markets remain closed until June 20, for Ramadan. We expect the rupiah to strengthen in the medium-term as BI continues to support the currency.

USD/INR: 1M NDFs dipped to a low of 67.6000 in the Asian hours on Monday but pared losses to bid up to 67.8000 in late NY hours. Onshore spot gapped a notch lower to open at 67.4600 on Monday vs. last close of 67.5000 and slid to a low of 67.2700 before recovering to 67.4650 into the close. Eyes on the May CPI data due on Tuesday, and we expect upside pressures to persist despite the RBI hike. Resistance turned support at 67.2900 appears to be at risk, but the 67 handle should remain intact.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

- 23:50 GMT - JP: PPI (May) [Prev: 0.1]

- 23:50 GMT - JP: PPI (May) [Prev: 2]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: Housing Finance (Apr) [Prev: -2.2]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: Lending Finance (Apr) [Prev: -9]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (May) [Prev: 10]

- 04:30 GMT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Apr) [Prev: -0.3]

- 05:00 GMT - SG: Retail Sales (Apr) [Prev: -1.5]

- 05:00 GMT - SG: Retail Sales (sa) (Apr) [Prev: 2.3]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Apr) [Prev: 2.6]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Claimant Count Change (May) [Prev: 31.2]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Claimant Count Rate (May) [Prev: 2.5]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Apr) [Prev: 4.2]

- 09:00 GMT - EU: ZEW (Economic Sentiment) (Jun) [Prev: 2.4]

- 10:00 GMT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May) [Prev: 104.8]

- 12:00 GMT - IN: CPI (May) [Prev: 4.58]

- 12:00 GMT - IN: Industrial Production (Apr) [Prev: 4.4]

- 12:30 GMT - US: CPI (May) [Prev: 0.2]

- 12:30 GMT - US: CPI (ex Food & Energy) (May) [Prev: 0.1]

- 18:00 GMT - US: Budget (May) [Prev: 214.3]

- 22:45 GMT - NZ: Food Price (May) [Prev: 0.1]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- PH: Market Holiday - Independence Day

- ID: Market Holiday - Hari Raya Aidilfitri


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:41 (GMT) 11 Jun

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 12 June 2018

ASIA OUTLOOK

A quiet day as G7 anxieties were largely shrugged off and markets looked to the Trump-Kim summit with some optimism. This saw equities and UST yields a little firmer and the USD edging up in tight ranges. Lower Italian yields on a commitment to the EUR also supported risk sentiment.

Majors FX Highlights

The Bloomberg dollar index traded in a range-bound manner on Monday, lower than last Friday's high of 93.821 as the euro pared gains despite expectations of ECB hinting an unwinding at their meeting this week. Focus has now turned to the tone of the Fed statement before that, and the Trump-Kim summit happening in Singapore today. The two first meet at 9am SGT (0100 GMT) and the bilateral meeting begins at 9.15am SGT (0115 GMT) followed by a working lunch at 11.30am SGT (0330 GMT) before Kim Jong un departs Singapore at 2pm SGT (0600 GMT) and Trump later at 8pm SGT (1200 GMT).

EUR/USD jumped to fresh highs of 1.1821 on hawkish ECB expectations but retreated to <1.1780 later. GBP stumbled on much worse than expected production data, a wider than forecast trade deficit also adding weight but not pushing any of Cable, EUR/GBP or GBP/JPY far enough to threaten recent ranges. GBP resilience is notable given the busy data week and the upcoming Commons votes on the Brexit Bill. USD/JPY soared above 110 in late NY and was seen printing fresh highs of 110.38 at last look as risk-on sentiment persisted. USD/CAD has been both sides of 1.30, but a late rally in crude has tapped into below, if not by much. AUD and NZD kept well inside recent ranges.

Majors Data Highlights

After three successive rises, UK industrial output contracted afresh in April, the drop of 0.8% m/m being steeper than our own below-consensus prediction. The better April weather did little to revive construction output numbers released alongside. A rise of 0.5% repaired less than a quarter of the March slump, with the recession-bound sector showing a marked fall in y/y terms of 3.3%.

In the US, May CPI will be closely watched. We expect gains of 0.2% overall and ex food and energy, but a little below 0.2% before rounding. The core rate will be following a weak Apr so another soft number would get some attention. May budget data is also due. EU's June ZEW survey should see a small rebound to -3for the headline German number, up from -8.2. The EZ equivalent is expected to fall back further to 1.0 from 2.4. Key votes on Brexit in the UK as well, but keep early focus on Trump-Kim summit in Singapore today.

Emerging Asia FX Highlights

USD/Asians remained in broad consolidation in the NY hours but saw fresh gains in early Asian trading hours this morning as focus turned to Trump-Kim summit. USD/CNY 1Y NDFs saw some downside to 6.5080 in early NY Hours on Monday but inched back up to 6.5100+ levels later. Fresh gains towards 6.5200 came by at last look this morning. USD/SGD was bid up from the Asia-session low of 1.3327 printed on Monday but pair entered consolidation around 1.3350 as G7 outcome was shrugged off by the NY traders. Focus has however turned to Trump-Kim summit in Singapore this morning which saw pair jump to 1.3355 high at last look. USD/IDR 1M NDFs printed a low of 14042 in the Asian hours on Monday but recovered to 14080 thereafter. USD/INR 1M NDFs dipped to a low of 67.6000 in the Asian hours on Monday but pared losses to bid up to 67.8000 in late NY hours.

Emerging Asia Data Highlights

Malaysia's April industrial production figure stands at 4.6% y/y up from 3.1% in March. Eyes today on Singapore's April retail sales and India's May CPI and April IP due after the close of markets. Philippines remains closed for Independence Day, and Indonesia is away until June 21 for Ramadan holidays.

OVERNIGHT NEWS HIGHLIGHTS

- US 3yr auction yielded 2.664%, 0.1bp tail, b/c 2.83.

- US 10yr auction yielded 2.962%, 0.3bp through, b/c 2.59.

- VIX index: 12.35 (+1.40%)

- Gold Spot: $1,299.51/oz (-0.08%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $76.46 ($0.00)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $66.12 (+$0.02)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 199.39 (-0.32%)

- 10y UST: 2.952% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 25,322.31 (+0.02%); S&P: 2,782.00 (+0.11%); Nasdaq: 7,659.93 (+0.19%)

ASIA NEWS

China: The Chinese central bank is likely to raise rates of reverse repo and MLF by small margin, Economic Information Daily reports, citing China Minsheng Bank researcher Wen Bin. - BBG

India: RBI Sold Net $2.48B of Foreign Currency in April. - BBG

CURRENCIES

G7 kept the headline writers busy but the upshot has been no stretch of recent parameters for FX traders to get their teeth into. EUR/USD has tried both sides of 1.1800 but looks short of any early catalyst to stretch it outside of 1.1750/1.1850 - maybe US CPI can change things; we doubt the ZEW survey will.

GBP stumbled on much worse than expected production data, a wider than forecast trade deficit also adding weight but not pushing any of Cable, EUR/GBP or GBP/JPY far enough to threaten recent ranges. GBP resilience is notable given the busy data week and the upcoming Commons votes on the Brexit Bill.

USD/JPY got a lift, nudging a little above 110, from a solid equity reactions to G7, UST yields also lending some support. Fairly flat positioning leaves few targets for fast money to pursue.

USD/CAD has been both sides of 1.30, but a late rally in crude has tapped into below, if not by much. AUD and NZD kept well inside recent ranges.

NOK took an early hit from lower than expected inflation, headline and core CPI both missing consensus by 0.2% on a y/y basis. Damage was limited here too.

Little movement in the CHF, EUR/CHF either side of 1.16, USD/CHF managing to hold above last week's lows. Swiss sight deposits almost unchanged on the week to suggest the SNB remaining out of the FX market.

BONDS

With the global risk let up Monday, even if the threat of more risk aversion is never far away, USTs were able to refocus on re-cheapening into the concentrated early week supply pre-FOMC. The 3 and 10 year supply saw respectable receptions, but with little market response. 2s +2.9bps @ 2.53%, 5s +1.7bps @ 2.80%, 10s +1.1bps @ 2.96%, 30s +0.9bps @ 3.10%.

Agency Spreads: Freddie/Fannie 5s -0.2/-0.1 bps, 10s -0.7/-0.3 bps.

Swap Spreads: 2s -0.03bps, 5s -0.02bps, 10s +0.15bps.

EQUITIES

Equities shrugged off the post G7 acrimony in cautious trade ahead of the Trump-Kim summit and key data. Lower Italian yields were also supportive. The indices saw moderate gains in subdued trading before a late dip reduced the gains to marginal.

ASIA CURRENCIES

USD/CNY: 1Y NDFs saw some downside to 6.5080 in early NY Hours on Monday but inched back up to 6.5100+ levels later. Fresh gains towards 6.5200 came by at last look this morning. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 6.4064 vs. previous close of 6.4090. USD/CNY onshore spot opened at 6.4059 and traded to intraday low of 6.4000 before closing at 6.4047. For USD/CNY, a move beyond the 6.3900-6.4400 range will signal further downside or upside respectively.

USD/CNH: Pair dipped to a low of 6.3937 in early NY hours before inching back to 6.4000-handle in late NY hours, although fresh gains to 6.4035 were seen in early Asian hours as the focus turned to Trump-Kim summit. A move beyond 6.4150 may trigger test of a further 6.4322 resistance.

USD/SGD: Pair was bid up from the Asia-session low of 1.3327 printed on Monday but pair entered consolidation around 1.3350 as G7 outcome was shrugged off by the NY traders. Focus has however turned to Trump-Kim summit in Singapore this morning which saw pair jump to 1.3355 high at last look. The pair is likely to be range bound between 1.3305-1.3368, ahead of major risk events this week, including Trump-Kim summit, Fed, ECB and BoJ meeting. On the data front, Singapore's retail sales slated for Tuesday is likely to rebound by 6.1% y/y in April, after a dip by 1.5% y/y.

USD/IDR: 1M NDFs printed a low of 14042 in the Asian hours on Monday but recovered to 14080 thereafter. Indonesia's onshore markets remain closed until June 20, for Ramadan. We expect the rupiah to strengthen in the medium-term as BI continues to support the currency.

USD/INR: 1M NDFs dipped to a low of 67.6000 in the Asian hours on Monday but pared losses to bid up to 67.8000 in late NY hours. Onshore spot gapped a notch lower to open at 67.4600 on Monday vs. last close of 67.5000 and slid to a low of 67.2700 before recovering to 67.4650 into the close. Eyes on the May CPI data due on Tuesday, and we expect upside pressures to persist despite the RBI hike. Resistance turned support at 67.2900 appears to be at risk, but the 67 handle should remain intact.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

- 23:50 GMT - JP: PPI (May) [Prev: 0.1]

- 23:50 GMT - JP: PPI (May) [Prev: 2]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: Housing Finance (Apr) [Prev: -2.2]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: Lending Finance (Apr) [Prev: -9]

- 01:30 GMT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (May) [Prev: 10]

- 04:30 GMT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Apr) [Prev: -0.3]

- 05:00 GMT - SG: Retail Sales (Apr) [Prev: -1.5]

- 05:00 GMT - SG: Retail Sales (sa) (Apr) [Prev: 2.3]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Apr) [Prev: 2.6]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Claimant Count Change (May) [Prev: 31.2]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: Claimant Count Rate (May) [Prev: 2.5]

- 08:30 GMT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Apr) [Prev: 4.2]

- 09:00 GMT - EU: ZEW (Economic Sentiment) (Jun) [Prev: 2.4]

- 10:00 GMT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May) [Prev: 104.8]

- 12:00 GMT - IN: CPI (May) [Prev: 4.58]

- 12:00 GMT - IN: Industrial Production (Apr) [Prev: 4.4]

- 12:30 GMT - US: CPI (May) [Prev: 0.2]

- 12:30 GMT - US: CPI (ex Food & Energy) (May) [Prev: 0.1]

- 18:00 GMT - US: Budget (May) [Prev: 214.3]

- 22:45 GMT - NZ: Food Price (May) [Prev: 0.1]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- PH: Market Holiday - Independence Day

- ID: Market Holiday - Hari Raya Aidilfitri


Forex - Flows: Net Foreign Equity Flows on Fri


 01:30 (GMT) 11 Jun

| | | | | |
| | | | | |
11-Jun-18 | | | | | |
09:28 SGT | 08/06/2018 | 07/06/2018 | 06/06/2018 | 05/06/2018 | 04/06/2018 |
SOUTH KOREA | 52.88 | 250.62 | - | -8.81 | -31.79 |
TAIWAN | -101.83 | 176.33 | 404.02 | 86.09 | 270.91 |
PHILIPPINES | -12.6966 | -9.2581 | -0.2685 | -12.8516 | -4.5744 |
INDONESIA | -175.434 | -7.072 | -36.246 | 6.422 | -10.969 |
THAILAND | -102.18 | -75.76 | -29.49 | -6.84 | -3.16 |
INDIA | - | -74.72 | 2.82 | 19.98 | 444.26 |
| | | | | |


Forex - Flows: Net Foreign Equity Flows on Fri


 01:30 (GMT) 11 Jun

| | | | | |
| | | | | |
11-Jun-18 | | | | | |
09:28 SGT | 08/06/2018 | 07/06/2018 | 06/06/2018 | 05/06/2018 | 04/06/2018 |
SOUTH KOREA | 52.88 | 250.62 | - | -8.81 | -31.79 |
TAIWAN | -101.83 | 176.33 | 404.02 | 86.09 | 270.91 |
PHILIPPINES | -12.6966 | -9.2581 | -0.2685 | -12.8516 | -4.5744 |
INDONESIA | -175.434 | -7.072 | -36.246 | 6.422 | -10.969 |
THAILAND | -102.18 | -75.76 | -29.49 | -6.84 | -3.16 |
INDIA | - | -74.72 | 2.82 | 19.98 | 444.26 |
| | | | | |


Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 09:15 (GMT) 08 Jun

 [Forex Highlights]

08 June 2018

Regional Backdrop:

Asian currencies were mixed in a week of stretched USD positioning. Key news in Asia was Reserve Bank of India hiking its policy rates pre-emptively. SGD (0.33%), CNY (0.17%), TWD (0.16%), CNH (0.13%) gained, while INR (-0.69%), IDR (-0.27%), THB (-0.21%), PHP (-0.19%), MYR (-0.16%) and KRW (-0.08%) weakened.

USD/CNH moved in a U-shape this week. From starting the week at above 6.4100, it had a low of 6.3749 on Wednesday. However, it has U-turned back up to 6.4046 at last look. Pair may be partially affected by a weaker than expected trade balance data on Friday.
USD/CNY started the week with an offered tone. Thereafter, USD/CNY was swayed by a high PBOC fixing on Friday. This has moved the pair from hovering at mostly 6.3900-6.3950 on Wednesday-Thursday to 6.4088 at last look. 1Y NDFs followed mostly spot movements to 6.5195 at last look.

USD/SGD started the week at around 1.3380, and trended down to a 1-month low of 1.3301 on Thursday. Further losses were stalled, and the pair bounced back to 1.3360 at last look. Singapore will be under spotlight next week for the much anticipated Trump-Kim summit on 12 June. On the data front, Singapore's retail sales is likely to rebound by 6.1% y/y in April, after a dip by 1.5% y/y.

USD/IDR onshore spot remained below 13900 for most part of the week, as the two hikes from May continued to support the rupiah. A fresh 6-week low of 13837 was printed on Wednesday as BI Governor showed commitment to raising rates again to maintain stability. However, gains in USD/IDR returned later in the week as risk sentiment weakened ahead of the coming week's FOMC and G7 meetings - pair was seen at the intraweek high of 13934 at last look.

USD/INR onshore spot remained in broad consolidation around the 67 handle Mon-Thurs, dipping to a 1-month low of 66.8300 following the RBI hike late on Wednesday. The downside however remained shallow and pair returned to trade near 67.5000 on the last day of the week, printing an intraweek high of 67.6050 until last check.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - A move beyond 6.4150 may trigger test of a further 6.4322 resistance.
For USD/CNY, a move beyond the 6.3900-6.4400 range will signal further downside or upside respectively.

USD/SGD - Failure to clear the strong support at 1.3305 now see downside pressure easing, and the pair is likely to be in consolidation between 1.3305 -1.3368.

USD/IDR - Downside potential is however still seen with strong support at 13780, which may likely be at risk before the Ramadan holidays begin absent any strong upsides in the US dollar.

USD/INR - We expect upside pressures to persist despite the RBI hike, and the break of resistances at 67.2900 and 67.6000 puts the focus back on the 68 handle.


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