Forex - Turkey Preview: due Mar 29 - Q4 2017 GDP growth seen slowing to 5.6% y/y


 10:55 (GMT) 14 Mar

  [Economic Data]

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Turkey Preview: due Mar 29 - Q4 2017 GDP growth seen slowing to 5.6% y/y (0100-YHMM-C01)

We think that GDP growth remained robust in Q4, even though it probably decelerated to 5.6% y/y from 11.1% y/y in Q3 amid unfavorable working-day and base effects, with recent stats office data showing that industrial production growth slowed to 7.5% y/y in Q4 from 13.9% y/y in Q3. We expect private consumption to continue to drive growth as attested to by stats office data revealing that retail sales growth accelerated to 4.0% y/y in Q4 from 1.5% y/y in Q3.

Overall, we see GDP growth quickening to 6.8% in 2017 from 3.2% in 2016, supported by credit and fiscal policy stimulus as well as a favourable external environment. But we are forecasting that growth will moderate to 4.2% in 2018, largely due to fading policy stimulus, although this will be partially offset by improving EZ export demand.


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