Bonds: Treasuries were bid coming out of the overnight session while risk was dialed down a notch given that the rating agencies did not having anything nice to say about Europe and with equities under pressure. Session highs did not make it very far into the US morning as stocks quickly turned the corner back to the upside. Meanwhile, the Mar IBD/TIPP consumer optimism index extended weakness with a 1.4 point decline to 45.4, which managed to pause the market briefly, but treasuries continued to fade anyway in anticipation of the $40 bln 3-year supply. The auction saw solid results across the board, though despite not seeing much of a favorable price reaction after the results. Toward the end of the day, stocks gave up some of the gains and treasuries responded with a marginal bounce back move, but treasuries overall respected the range on the day. 2s -2bps 0.88%, 5s -3bps 2.34%, 10s -2bps 3.71%, and 30s -1bp 4.68%.
Equities: Stocks opened fractionally lower, but quickly crossed back into positive territory before the IBD data. Cisco's midday announcement concerning a new "revolutionary" router was the likely catalyst for fresh highs in all 3 major indices, however, afternoon profit-taking set in and left the mkt with only minor gains. Dow up 0.11% (+11.86 points), S&P edged higher by 0.17% (+1.95 points) while Nasdaq rose 0.36% (+8.47 points).
Asia Outlook: US equities managing to close with the head above the water despite slip in consumer sentiments was not a concrete indication of risk-on moves or increased risk appetite for that matter. Position readjustments and caution are expected to drive trades and our sense that RBNZ will not be shedding all of its dovish feathers so soon suggests that the yield hunt may also cool at the margin. Short-covering interest aside, we expect that the Greenback will be well supported on dips as Eurozone issue drag on.
In Asia, equities are seen waffling and gains are likely to be cautious as uncertainty about global macro risks remain. We expect that USD/AXJ will be mostly be in sideways trades with two-way action on the cards. Thai central bank meeting is not expected to yield any major surprises and we expect that it will be relatively uneventful with BoT stressing on external sector downside risks, benign core inflation and political uncertainty at home as strong causes not to normalize too much too soon. Meanwhile there will be some focus on Chinese Feb exports as well as lending. Better than expected data could boost AXJ, but we watch for pullback from further tightening risks being read from data.
NORTH ASIA
USD/KRW: Looks like the USD/KW will be in sideways trades today with range of 1130-1145 looking likely; BoK bids are seen supporting below as have been the case of recent. Overnight NDFs dealt in the 1135.0-1139.0 range in high vol trades, closing 1135.0-1136.0 from 138.5-1139.0 open. Money supply data for Jan watched, though it is not seen having major impact on monetary policy decision on Thu.
USD/CNY: IMF's comments on seeing changes in the CNY in "coming months" is not expected to trigger a huge move in the 1-yr NDFs as Beijing is deemed to move more cautiously. We expect that relatively tight range amid 6.6200-6.6600 will continue to remain intact with majority of price movements consolidating in the 6.6300-6.6500range. The 1-yr NDFs dealt 6.6380-6.6430 before closing 6.6380-6.6420. Feb trade and new loans data release awaited later.
USD/HKD: Consolidation amid 7.7580-7.7610 is seen for now; while a firmer USD could push prices higher, inflows into equity markets should help keep upside in check.
USD/TWD: Looks like the USD/TWD will be dealt in relatively contained 31.75-31.95 range for the time being; dips likely to be supported and intervention risks are seen below. Low vol and tight trades in the 1-mth NDFs which dealt 31.71 during the NY session; closed 31.70-31.73 from 31.71-31.73 open.
SOUTH ASIA
USD/SGD: EUR continuing in a wider sideways motion will invoke similar movements in the USD/SGD for now; 1.3960 is seen as the initial support ahead of the 1.3945. Intraday range of 1.3960-1.4035 is seen meanwhile.
USD/IDR: Range trades are seen in the 9170-9230 range for now as the USD/IDR moves back and forth. Assurance from FinMin could support the USD/IDR though broad macro trends will likely set the course. Overnight NDFs traded 9200; closed 9190-9210 from 9220-9250 open.
USD/MYR: Two-way moves in the USD/MYR should be confined in the 3.3300-3.3550 range in the near-term as FX land looks outside for cues. Moderate range of trades amid 3.3400-3.3425 in the 1-mth NDFs which closed 3.3380-3.3420 from 3.3430-3.3480 open.
USD/PHP: The USD/PHP is seen being weighed on bounces above 45.90; for now range of 45.60-45.95 should hold. Low range of trades in the 1-mth NDFs which traded 45.83; closed 45.80-45.90 from 45.90-46.00 open. Jan exports data to be released at 0100GMT.
USD/THB: Focus will be on the central ban meeting today. Our economists look for a status quo as BoT sits on its hands citing recovery that has yet to establish a firm footing as well as lingering political uncertainty. For now trades are expected to be in the 32.65-32.83 range as caution ahead of the weekend rally creeps in.
USD/INR: A stall in downside momentum is likely if SENSEX is not able to stage a rally. Oil importers are seen buying on dips below 45.45; and range of 45.35-45.75 is expected to hold for now. 1-mth NDFs closed 45.58-45.63 from 45.62-45.66 open; high vol of trades saw range of 45.56-45.68.