Forex - US North American Summary and Highlights 5 Dec

 19:18 (GMT) 05 Dec

  [Forex Highlights]

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US North American Summary and Highlights 5 Dec (0101-GNHF-C01)


A somewhat more dovish BoC tone saw markets price out a Jan rate hike and the CAD slipped. Otherwise a subdued day with US markets closed, though equity futures saw some recovery with Trump expressing some optimism on China trade.

News highlights

- Bank of Canada left rates unchanged as exp, said may be more room for non-inflationary growth, policy rate will need to rise to neutral, pace will depend on a number of factors.

- Fed's Beige Book reported modest-moderate growth, modest price gains, input costs rose faster than final goods prices, tariff-induced cost pressures have spread.


CAD the big loser as the BoC left rates unchanged - as expected - but with a less hawkish message than last time. USD/CAD pushed to a fresh YTD high at 1.3399, this despite slightly better crude, WTI +50c.

UK November services PMI disappointed at 50.4 against a market expectation of 52.5 - lowest since the post-Brexit reading in July 2016. GBP overall little affected, EUR/GBP fairly tight to .8900, Cable holding on the 1.27 handle after the look at the YTD low overnight.

Final November Eurozone PMIs show mild upward revision but had no impact on a sleepy EUR/USD, quickly moving off a low of 1.1309 as USDs were bought on the BoC decision, returning to near the earlier 1.1361 high.

USD/JPY closed near the highs around 113.20, UST yields off the lows and E-minis holding in positive territory if well down on the week.

Swedish November services PMI and October industrial production both much stronger than expected, helping EUR/SEK to break to its lowest level since June, as expectations of a Riksbank rate hike were firmed up. The low seen at 10.1600.

USD/CHF had a brief look over 1.00, but the USD doing all the work as EUR/CHF sticks at familiar levels.

AUD and NZD both gave ground to the USD, AUD/NZD still towards the lows but as yet no break of 1.0500.


US markets closed to observe President Bush's state funeral. CGBs rallied out of the BoC meeting that noted more slack for noninflationary growth after GDP revisions and the negative impact from oil (10s -4.5bp).


While US equity markets were closed futures saw some recovery from Tuesday's plunge, Trump tweeting some optimism on trade with China early in the day.


00:30 GMT - AU: Retail trade (Oct) % m/m (Mkt: 0.3 Prev: 0.2)

00:30 GMT - AU: Trade Balance (Oct) AUD mn (Mkt: 3000 Prev: 3017)

05:30 GMT - NL: CPI (Nov) % m/m (Prev: 0.4)

05:30 GMT - NL: CPI (Nov) % y/y (Prev: 2.1)

05:30 GMT - NL: HICP (Nov) % m/m (Prev: 0.5)

05:30 GMT - NL: HICP (Nov) % y/y (Mkt: 1.7 Prev: 1.9)

07:00 GMT - DE: Factory orders (nsa) (Oct) % y/y (Mkt: -3.1 Prev: -2.2)

07:00 GMT - DE: Factory orders (sa) (Oct) 4cast: -0.5% m/m (Mkt: -0.4 Prev: 0.3)

08:30 GMT - SE: Average House Prices (Nov) mn (Prev: 2.79)

09:00 GMT - IS: Trade Balance (Nov P) ISK bn (Prev: -12.1)

10:00 GMT - GR: Unemployment (Sep) % (Prev: 18.9)

13:15 GMT - US: ADP Employment Survey (Nov) 4cast: 175k (Mkt: 195 Prev: 227)

13:30 GMT - CA: Trade Balance (Nov) 4cast: -0.6USD bn (Mkt: -0.73 Prev: -0.42)

13:30 GMT - US: Initial Claims (43435) k (Mkt: 225 Prev: 234)

13:30 GMT - US: Non Farm Productivity (Q3 F) 4cast: % q/q ann (Mkt: 2.3 Prev: 2.2)

13:30 GMT - US: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -55.1USD bn (Mkt: -55 Prev: -54)

13:30 GMT - US: Unit Labor Costs (Q3 F) % q/q (Mkt: 1 Prev: 1.2)

15:00 GMT - CA: Ivey PMI (Nov) (Prev: 61.8)

15:00 GMT - US: Factory Orders (Oct) % m/m (Mkt: -2 Prev: 0.7)

15:00 GMT - US: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov) 4cast: 58.5index (Mkt: 59 Prev: 60.3)

Events & Auctions:

22:15 GMT - US: Fed's Quarles Speaks in Stanford

n/a GMT - ES: Expected: Tap of Bono 07/24 (EUR 1.5bn)

n/a GMT - ES: Expected: Tap of Oblig. 07/28 (EUR 1.5bn)

n/a GMT - ES: Expected: Tap of Oblig-ei 11/30 (EUR 1bn)

n/a GMT - FI: Market Holiday - Independence Day

03:30 GMT - JP: 6mth Bills Auction

06:00 GMT - JP: Auction for Enhanced Liquidity

07:30 GMT - EU: ECB's Guindos Speaks in Frankfurt

07:30 GMT - EU: ECB's Guindos Speaks in Frankfurt

08:45 GMT - UK: BoE's Hauser Speaks in London

09:05 GMT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney

09:50 GMT - FR: Expected: Tap of OAT 05/36 (EUR 1.5bn)

09:50 GMT - FR: Expected: Tap of OAT 05/48 (EUR 1.5bn)

09:50 GMT - FR: Expected: Tap of OAT 06/39(EUR 1.5bn)

09:50 GMT - FR: Expected: Tap of OAT 11/25 (EUR 1.5bn)

10:00 GMT - UK: BoE's Ramsden Speaks in London

13:00 GMT - CA: BoC's Poloz Gives Last Speech of the Year in Toronto

16:00 GMT - PT: EU's Moscovisi and Bank of Portugal's Costa Speak in London

16:30 GMT - US: 4wk Bills Auction (USD 40bn)

16:30 GMT - US: 8wk Bills Auction (USD 30bn)

17:15 GMT - US: Fed's Bostic Speaks in Atlanta

23:30 GMT - US: Fed's Williams Speaks in New York

23:45 GMT - US: Fed's Powell Gives Weclome Remarks at Housing Conference12:45 GMT - EU: ECB's Coeure Speaks in Frankfurt

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