Forex - Psychology/Strategy for major markets today


 16:06 (GMT) 12 Apr

  [Forex Strategy]

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Psychology/Strategy for major markets today (0101-KLJF-C01)

EUR/USD - Upside bias to EUR continues helped by big EUR/JPY flow and reports that ECB is unlikely to introduce tiering. Scope to 1.1350 area with break above 1.13 likely to trigger some covering of shorts.

USD/JPY - Another 49-year low in US jobless claims boosts the USD and risk appetite and provides a bid to USD/JPY. Upside bias continues helped by reported M&A flow and strong Chinese money growth, and break above 112 now looks achievable.

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD - GBP implied volatility has collapsed as Brexit deadline has been extended to end-October. Market now assuming "no deal" is off the agenda, but GBP still looks vulnerable against the EUR as political risk remains high.

DJIA, S&P - Sense that downside economic risks have faded supporting sentiment as more key financial sector earnings data are awaited.

T-Bond - USTs caught out long, and the upside yield breaks could extend further into Easter. 2.4%- in view on 5s (to 2.5% would be more of a pain trade).


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