Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 08:51 (GMT) 16 Apr

  [Forex Highlights]

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Asia Close Highlights (0101-KKSL-C01)

17 April 2019

Regional Backdrop:

Asian currencies were weakening on Tuesday. MYR lost 0.53% against the USD, as were KRW (-0.24%), PHP (-0.19%) and INR (-0.18%). Only CNY was resilient with a small 0.02% gain. Markets remain watchful of China GDP data on Wednesday, where some resilience will help Asia FX against further weakness.

USD/CNH had an attempt to break away from the current range of 6.7050-6.7319. However, pair retreated again to 6.7084 last after reaching high of 6.7150. China's March new home prices rose 0.61% m/m, a strong performance. This also raises concerns on sustainability. Meanwhile, China's holdings of UST rose a third consecutive month. Pair last in a bid tone up to 6.7136. PBoC fixed mid-point at 6.7097 vs. previous close of 6.7085. USD/CNY last seen creeping down to 6.7077 last. 1Y NDFs last seen stable at 6.7456.

USD/SGD rose to 1.3537 at the beginning of Tuesday's Asian session, before reversing to 1.3529. However, pair rebounded and printed an intra-day high at 1.3538 subsequently. Attention will be on Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) and electronics exports on Wednesday. We are expecting NODX to slow down to -5.5% y/y in March from 4.9% y/y in February. Electronics exports are expected to see a slight improvement to -6.7% y/y in March from 8.0% y/y in February. Pair's recovery is likely to be just a dead cat bounce.

USD/IDR onshore spot remained stuck near Monday's levels, opening flat at 1.5-month lows of 14060 and rising only slightly to 14078 in the day before the nation votes. Quiet overnight markets underpinned, and Bank Indonesia also remains present in markets to curb volatilities.

USD/INR onshore spot gapped a notch higher to open at 69.4900 on Tuesday vs. last close of 69.4200 and edged higher to 69.5900 in early trading before turning back lower to 69.5000-levels and another bounce to fresh highs of 69.6000-levels in the afternoon. Quiet overnight markets, but a wider March trade deficit underpinned. Pair however saw gains capped amid gains in equities. Onshore markets remain closed on Thursday for a local festival.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - We view that the 6.7000 big figure is reachable if pair can cross the 5 April low of 6.7023. 6.7000 remains a big psychological support for USD/CNY.

USD/SGD - We expect pair to see a reversal and eye the 1.3515 support next.

USD/IDR - Markets will remain closed on Thursday for the elections, and Friday's movements may likely be choppy as quick counts are released late on Thursday. We see risk of break below 14035 support if Jokowi wins a second term.

USD/INR - We expect 69.8000 resistance area to continue to stand strong despite the election uncertainties, even as the downside below 68.5000 is also shallow.


Forex - China Flows: Both USD/CNY and USD/CNH remains northwards of 6.7000, in a bid to test resistance levels


 02:33 (GMT) 16 Apr

 [Forex Flows]

USD/CNH is last seen with an attempt to breakaway from the current range of 6.7050-6.7319. China's March new home prices rose 0.61% m/m, a strong performance. This also raises concerns on sustainability. Meanwhile, China's holdings of UST rose a third consecutive month. Pair last in a bid tone up to 6.7136. We view that the 6.7000 big figure is reachable if pair can cross the 5 April low of 6.7023.

PBoC fixed mid-point at 6.7097 vs. previous close of 6.7085. USD/CNY last seen creeping up to 6.7123 last. 1Y NDFs last seen slightly up to 6.7511. 6.7000 remains a big psychological support for USD/CNY.


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