Forex - European Highlights - 08 February 2019


 11:48 (GMT) 08 Feb

  [Forex Highlights]

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European Highlights

European Highlights - 08 February 2019 (0101-JBDD-C01)

08 February 2019

Asia FX and News

+ Trump to Sign Order on Chinese Telecom Equipment Ban ~ Politico

+ Japan Dec. Current-Acct Surplus 452.8b Yen; Est. +469.3b Yen, Household Spending Rises 0.1% Y/y; Est. +0.8%,

+ Cash Earnings Rise 1.8% Y/y; Est. +1.7%

+ RBA cuts GDP and inflation forecasts, underscored housing and consumption risks

+ Fed's Bullard: Yield Curve Suggests FOMC Should Tread Carefully; Balance Sheet Reserves to be more than Previously Thought

+ AUD again the loser in Asia, knocked lower as the RBA cuts its growth and inflation forecast amid housing and consumptions risks in the SoMP. AUD/USD reacted sharply lower but follow-thru selling was lacking before a modest bounce higher. However, weakness against the NZD persisted after 1.05 proved to be a resistance. USD/CAD marked slightly higher on softer oil prices, though 1.3330/50dma limits further gains ahead of jobs report.
Politico reported that Trump will sign an executive order to ban Chinese telecom equipment from US network next week according to unnamed sources. No major market reaction but might have contributed to the drift lower in E-minis and a slightly firmer yen.

Nikkei and JGBs

+ Nikkei -2.01%, JGB 10yr yield at -0.028%

Europe FX and news

+ German December trade numbers showed a stronger than expected rise in both imports and exports, and a larger than expected trade surplus. Exports in particular looked quite healthy, recording a solid rise in Q4, offsetting some of the negative sentiment about export prospects related to fears of a China/global slowdown. French industrial production recovered in December after a weak November, but Italian production fell again. EUR/USD was a little offered through most of the European morning, but held near 1.1325 and there was some talk of large bids near 1.13, possibly from central banks, possibly option related.

+ Norwegian mainland GDP was stronger than expected in December, and stronger in Q4 as a result, rising 0.9% q/q. However, the NOK weakened through the morning after initially rising slightly on the numbers, helped by the weaker oil price seen overnight, though Brent was back to Thursday's European close by the end of the morning.

Equities and bonds

+ Very quiet morning, if with US30s remaining firm out of supply & jittery Asia session, testing below 3%. Bunds yields remained depressed, 10s near 0.1%. BTPs manage to withstand more weak data (production -0.8%) and France spat, see minor bounce off lows.

Data:

JP: Bank Lending Data (Ex trusts) (Jan) 2.4% y/y (Prev: 2.5)

JP: Economy Watchers Survey (Jan) 45.6 (Mkt: 48.3 Prev: 46.8R)

06:45 GMT - CH: Unemployment (sa) (Jan) % (Mkt: 2.4 Prev: 2.4)

07:00 GMT - DE: Current Account (nsa) (Dec) EUR bn (Mkt: 23.3 Prev: 21.4)

07:00 GMT - DE: Trade Balance (Dec) EUR bn (Mkt: 16.5 Prev: 20.4)

07:00 GMT - NO: Mainland GDP (Dec) % (Mkt: 0.7 Prev: 0.3)

07:45 GMT - FR: Industrial Production (Dec) % m/m (Mkt: 0.6 Prev: -1.3)

07:45 GMT - FR: Industrial Production (Dec) % y/y (Mkt: -1.4 Prev: -2.1)

07:45 GMT - FR: Manufacturing Production (Dec) % m/m (Mkt: 1.1 Prev: -1.4)

07:45 GMT - FR: Manufacturing Production (Dec) % y/y (Mkt: -1.2 Prev: -2.2)

09:00 GMT - IT: Industrial Production (sa) (Dec) % m/m (Mkt: 0.4 Prev: -1.6)

09:00 GMT - IT: Industrial Production (wda) (Dec) % y/y (Mkt: -2.7 Prev: -2.6)

Still to be released:

13:15 GMT - CA: Housing Starts (Jan) 4cast: 197k (Mkt: 205 Prev: 213.4)

13:30 GMT - CA: Net Change in Employment (Jan) 4cast: -10k (Mkt: 5 Prev: 7.8)

13:30 GMT - CA: Unemployment (Jan) 4cast: 5.8% (Mkt: 5.7 Prev: 5.6)

Events & Auctions:

00:30 GMT - US: Fed's Bullard speaks in Saint Cloud, Minnesota

03:30 GMT - JP: 3mth Bills Auction

11:00 GMT - UK: 182-Day Bills Auction (GBP 1.5bn)

11:00 GMT - UK: 28-Day Bills Auction (GBP 0.5bn)

11:00 GMT - UK: 91-Day Bills Auction (GBP 1.5bn)

12:00 GMT - SE: Riksbank general council meeting

18:15 GMT - US: Fed's Daly speaks in San Francisco


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