Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:41 (GMT) 03 Dec

  [Forex Highlights]

Sample Premium Content

Asia Overnight Highlights - 04 Dec 2019

MAJORS

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights (0101-PXSZ-C01)

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index was lower on Tuesday after the comment from President Trump in a press conference at the NATO Summit, saying that he had no deadline on a trade deal with China and it might be better to wait until after the November 2020 election. This triggered a risk off reaction in markets which had been hoping for a phase one deal by the end of the year or at least early in 2020.

USD/JPY lost around 15 pips on the statement, but as US equity and UST yield losses built, a low below 108.50 was seen. Comments from Commerce Secretary Ross suggesting tariffs on China might be hiked on December 15 added to market concerns.

EUR/USD fell around 20 pips down to 1.1065 on Trump's comments before picking up as UST yields weighed on the USD, though 1.10 still contains the upside. Trump suggested he could use trade as a weapon against countries not meeting their NATO commitments.

GBP was a little firmer against the EUR, benefitting from a new Kantar poll showing an increase in the Conservative poll lead to 12%. The UK construction PMI stayed very weak, but was slightly above market expectations. GBP/USD saw highs above 1.30.

AUD/USD fell back to opening levels at 0.6840 after extending the Asian session gains to 0.6860 in the European morning. USD/CAD also ended little changed.

Data/Events Highlights:

- Trump said no deadline for deal with China, could be better to wait until after election

- VIX index: 15.96 (+7.04%)

- Gold Spot: $1,476.79/oz (-0.06%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $60.82 ($-0.10)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.41 (+$0.31)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 177.59 (+0.26%)

- 10y UST: 1.716% (-10bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,502.81 (-1.01%); S&P: 3,093.20 (-0.66%); Nasdaq: 8,520.64 (-0.55%)

Data/Events Ahead:

We expect a 140k Nov increase in ADP's estimate of private sector employment growth. . Nov ISM non-manufacturing data is also due and we expect slippage to 54.0 from 54.7.

The Bank of Canada meets today. A rate cut looks unlikely, but recent data will be closely watched, Q3 GDP in particular.

Eurozone Services and Composite PMIs are due for final readings, whose flash readings were 51.5 (52.2 in October) and 50.3 (50.6 in October) respectively.

EMERGING ASIA

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights (0101-PXSZ-C02)

FX Highlights:

A mixed day for Asian currencies as dollar held onto its losses. Trump's latest tariffs against Brazil and Argentina rattled market nerves again on Tuesday, and further decline in risk sentiment was seen overnight with President Trump saying he's not running a deadline for the China deal and it could be postponed to after the elections. CNH (-0.37%) led the losses as a result, followed by KRW (-0.33%) and CNY (-0.31%). Philippines peso trimmed some earlier losses, rebounded by 0.25% against USD. SGD (+0.12%), MYR (+0.10%) and IDR (+0.07%) were also in gains.

USD/CNH extended the gains on Tuesday to 7.0800+ levels in NY from 7.0400-levels seen in the Asian session and settled around 7.0700 into the NY close after concerns regarding the phase 1 US/China trade deal rose again. Break above 7.0500 has exposed the 7.1000 handle once again. Onshore spot was seen printing over 1-month highs of 7.0650 on Tuesday amid risks to China tariffs after President Trump imposed tariffs on Brazil and Argentina. Upside remains vulnerable, eyes on 7.1000 big figure. 1Y NDFs were boosted to highs of 7.1585 from sub-7.1200 levels seen earlier.

USD/SGD continued to trade with a bearish bias on Tuesday despite fresh tariff concerns, and pair slid to sub-1.3650 levels in NY as the USD weakened. Pair may eye the 1.3635 support. If broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3596 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded choppily around 14170 on Tuesday, unable to find a firm bias. Onshore spot remained close to Monday's highs of 14132 and re-printed it in early trading. Pair was however possibly halted by authorities. Risk aversion was also higher due to a blast report at Indonesia's national monument park in Jakarta. Pair however retreated to sub-14120 levels into the close. We believe the pair remains fragile amid trade risks and a widening budget deficit at home. However, gains towards 14150 are still likely to be capped.

USD/INR 1M NDFs traded with a bid tone back to the 72 handle from lows of 71.710 earlier on Tuesday. Onshore spot traded in consolidation around 71.600 as the RBI's 3-day meeting began with the decision due on Thursday. Pair however rose back to 71.800 levels into the close, and is likely to face continued upside pressures amid domestic and external volatilities, and the 72 level may be eyed again.

Data/Events Highlights:

Singapore's November manufacturing PMI saw some gains to 49.8 in November from 49.6 in October, but still remained in contraction.

Data/Events Ahead:

Malaysia's October trade data is scheduled in Asia today, and we expect another contraction in exports and imports.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

00:00 GMT / 08:00 SGT - NZ: ANZ Commodity Price (Nov) [Prev: 1.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - JP: Services PMI (Nov F) [Prev: 50.4]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - JP: Composite PMI (Nov F) [Prev: 49.9]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 1.8% y/y [Mkt: 1.7, Prev: 1.4]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -13.5% y/y [Mkt: -12.5, Prev: -6.8]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -8% y/y [Mkt: -9, Prev: 2.4]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: 10.15MYR bn [Mkt: 11.9, Prev: 8.34]

05:00 GMT / 13:00 SGT - IN: Composite PMI (Nov) [Prev: 49.6]

05:00 GMT / 13:00 SGT - IN: Services PMI (Nov) [Prev: 49.2]

09:00 GMT / 17:00 SGT - EU: Services PMI (Nov Final) [Mkt: 51.5, Prev: 51.5]

09:00 GMT / 17:00 SGT - EU: Composite PMI (Nov Final) [Mkt: 50.3, Prev: 50.3]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: CIPS / Markit Services PMI (Nov Final) [Mkt: 48.6, Prev: 48.6]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: CIPS/Markit Composite PMI (Nov Final) [Mkt: 48.5, Prev: 48.5]

13:15 GMT / 21:15 SGT - US: ADP Employment Survey (Nov) 4cast: 140k [Mkt: 140, Prev: 125]

14:45 GMT / 22:45 SGT - US: Markit Services PMI (Nov F) [Mkt: 51.6, Prev: 51.6]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov) 4cast: 54 [Mkt: 54.5, Prev: 54.7]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - CA: BoC Rate (Dec 4) 4cast: 1.75% [Mkt: 1.75, Prev: 1.75]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Current Account Balance (Oct) [Prev: 7.4772]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- No Key Events Scheduled


Forex - Korea Q3 F GDP (sa) 0.4% q/q (Prev: 0.4 Mkt: 0.4 4CAST: 0.4)


 23:00 (GMT) 02 Dec

 [Economic Data]

Please view the story for more information...


Forex - India REVIEW: Q2 FY2020 GDP Growth Worsened to a Low since FY2013


 03:04 (GMT) 02 Dec

 [Economic Data]

India's Q2 FY2020 GDP growth plummeted further to 4.5% y/y, a low since FY2013. Although, it was aligned with market expectations, this was a slip from 5.0% y/y in Q1 FY 2020.

Private consumption growth ticked slightly higher to 5.1% y/y in Q2 FY2020, however, remained subdued. Investment growth dipped to 1.0% y/y, compared to 4.0% y/y in the previous quarter. Exports contracted for the first time since FY2016, by 0.4% y/y. Meanwhile, growth was supported by a surge in government expenditure at 15.6% y/y in FY 2020.

Overall, this is a weak print and we expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ease further in order to lend support to growth. We expect a 25-bps rate cut at the RBI's meeting on December 5, to bring the repo rate to 4.9% at year-end. We continue to see room for demand-side fiscal support announcements such as tax cuts either in the February budget or before. Given a tight fiscal hand, we believe an accelerated divestment plan will likely be in the cards.


Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 08:51 (GMT) 29 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

29 Nov 2019

Charu Chanana, Jiaxin Lu, Defa Zhao

Regional Backdrop:

Majority of the Asian currencies weakened against the dollar during the week as the dollar strengthened amid a strong Q3's GDP showing. Initial trade optimism was pared towards the end of the week, after Trump's signed the Bill in support of the Hong Kong protestors, risking possible retaliation from China. JPY was the biggest loser, down 0.80% against the dollar. Other currencies saw modest losses against the dollar as well: KRW (-0.21%), SGD (-0.19%), INR (-0.17%), THB (-0.15%), IDR (-0.15%) and MYR (-0.08%). CNH and CNY were the only winners, up 0.18% and 0.16% respectively against the greenback. TWD, PHP and HKD were relatively stable.

USD/CNH continued to be driven by trade headlines. Trade optimism at the start of the week spurred modest gains in offshore yuan, USD/CNH slipped to a low of 7.0091 on Tuesday. Market sentiment was subsequently dampened by the decision of US President Trump to sign Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, and USD/CNH edged up to 7.0350 at last look.

USD/CNY was largely range bound during the week. Pair traded mostly between 7.0217 -7.0358 amid trade jitters. 1Y NDFs tested the low of 7.0855 on Wednesday, and traded higher to 7.1050 thereafter.

USD/SGD traded with an upside bias across the week amid strength in the dollar. Pair extended its gains from around 1.3640 at the beginning of the week to 1.3671 on Friday, a fresh high since mid-October. Dollar strengthened after U.S's Q3 GDP beat expectations. Risk aversion rose as well after Trump has signed the human rights Bill in support for the Hong Kong protestors. Meanwhile, Singapore's October CPI remained weak and slipped further to 0.4% y/y from 0.5% y/y in September. However, Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September.

USD/IDR onshore spot started the week lower amid U.S./China trade deal optimism, and intraweek lows of 14078 were printed on Tuesday. Risk aversion however picked up later in the week following President Trump's signing of the HK bill which may likely instigate China and spoil the trade talks. Pair was however capped at 14100 initially, possibly stalled by authorities, but broke above on Friday to test the 14115 resistance as we had expected.

USD/INR onshore spot traded in v-shaped pattern on Tuesday, seeing a bearish bias first to slip to 3-week lows of 71.295 amid expectations of reforms from the Modi government following announcements of divestments. U.S/China trade talks however still kept investors jittery and the slowdown expected in Q3 GDP data on Friday boosted risk aversion and brought the pair back to 71.800 levels at last look on Friday.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - Quiet markets still mean no change to our view that the pair will remain within 7.0000-7.1000 near-term. For USD/CNY, Further gains is likely to be capped, the pair may target support at 7.0197.

USD/SGD - Eyes will be on the 1.3700 big figure as dollar continues to strength. If broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3721 resistance.

USD/IDR - Gains above 14115 will be tough unless trade talks see a real deterioration, in which case 14150 is likely to cap.

USD/INR - Pair is likely to face continued upside pressures amid domestic and external volatilities, and the 72 level may be eyed again.


Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 08:51 (GMT) 29 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

29 Nov 2019

Charu Chanana, Jiaxin Lu, Defa Zhao

Regional Backdrop:

Majority of the Asian currencies weakened against the dollar during the week as the dollar strengthened amid a strong Q3's GDP showing. Initial trade optimism was pared towards the end of the week, after Trump's signed the Bill in support of the Hong Kong protestors, risking possible retaliation from China. JPY was the biggest loser, down 0.80% against the dollar. Other currencies saw modest losses against the dollar as well: KRW (-0.21%), SGD (-0.19%), INR (-0.17%), THB (-0.15%), IDR (-0.15%) and MYR (-0.08%). CNH and CNY were the only winners, up 0.18% and 0.16% respectively against the greenback. TWD, PHP and HKD were relatively stable.

USD/CNH continued to be driven by trade headlines. Trade optimism at the start of the week spurred modest gains in offshore yuan, USD/CNH slipped to a low of 7.0091 on Tuesday. Market sentiment was subsequently dampened by the decision of US President Trump to sign Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, and USD/CNH edged up to 7.0350 at last look.

USD/CNY was largely range bound during the week. Pair traded mostly between 7.0217 -7.0358 amid trade jitters. 1Y NDFs tested the low of 7.0855 on Wednesday, and traded higher to 7.1050 thereafter.

USD/SGD traded with an upside bias across the week amid strength in the dollar. Pair extended its gains from around 1.3640 at the beginning of the week to 1.3671 on Friday, a fresh high since mid-October. Dollar strengthened after U.S's Q3 GDP beat expectations. Risk aversion rose as well after Trump has signed the human rights Bill in support for the Hong Kong protestors. Meanwhile, Singapore's October CPI remained weak and slipped further to 0.4% y/y from 0.5% y/y in September. However, Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September.

USD/IDR onshore spot started the week lower amid U.S./China trade deal optimism, and intraweek lows of 14078 were printed on Tuesday. Risk aversion however picked up later in the week following President Trump's signing of the HK bill which may likely instigate China and spoil the trade talks. Pair was however capped at 14100 initially, possibly stalled by authorities, but broke above on Friday to test the 14115 resistance as we had expected.

USD/INR onshore spot traded in v-shaped pattern on Tuesday, seeing a bearish bias first to slip to 3-week lows of 71.295 amid expectations of reforms from the Modi government following announcements of divestments. U.S/China trade talks however still kept investors jittery and the slowdown expected in Q3 GDP data on Friday boosted risk aversion and brought the pair back to 71.800 levels at last look on Friday.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - Quiet markets still mean no change to our view that the pair will remain within 7.0000-7.1000 near-term. For USD/CNY, Further gains is likely to be capped, the pair may target support at 7.0197.

USD/SGD - Eyes will be on the 1.3700 big figure as dollar continues to strength. If broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3721 resistance.

USD/IDR - Gains above 14115 will be tough unless trade talks see a real deterioration, in which case 14150 is likely to cap.

USD/INR - Pair is likely to face continued upside pressures amid domestic and external volatilities, and the 72 level may be eyed again.


Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 08:51 (GMT) 29 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

29 Nov 2019

Charu Chanana, Jiaxin Lu, Defa Zhao

Regional Backdrop:

Majority of the Asian currencies weakened against the dollar during the week as the dollar strengthened amid a strong Q3's GDP showing. Initial trade optimism was pared towards the end of the week, after Trump's signed the Bill in support of the Hong Kong protestors, risking possible retaliation from China. JPY was the biggest loser, down 0.80% against the dollar. Other currencies saw modest losses against the dollar as well: KRW (-0.21%), SGD (-0.19%), INR (-0.17%), THB (-0.15%), IDR (-0.15%) and MYR (-0.08%). CNH and CNY were the only winners, up 0.18% and 0.16% respectively against the greenback. TWD, PHP and HKD were relatively stable.

USD/CNH continued to be driven by trade headlines. Trade optimism at the start of the week spurred modest gains in offshore yuan, USD/CNH slipped to a low of 7.0091 on Tuesday. Market sentiment was subsequently dampened by the decision of US President Trump to sign Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, and USD/CNH edged up to 7.0350 at last look.

USD/CNY was largely range bound during the week. Pair traded mostly between 7.0217 -7.0358 amid trade jitters. 1Y NDFs tested the low of 7.0855 on Wednesday, and traded higher to 7.1050 thereafter.

USD/SGD traded with an upside bias across the week amid strength in the dollar. Pair extended its gains from around 1.3640 at the beginning of the week to 1.3671 on Friday, a fresh high since mid-October. Dollar strengthened after U.S's Q3 GDP beat expectations. Risk aversion rose as well after Trump has signed the human rights Bill in support for the Hong Kong protestors. Meanwhile, Singapore's October CPI remained weak and slipped further to 0.4% y/y from 0.5% y/y in September. However, Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September.

USD/IDR onshore spot started the week lower amid U.S./China trade deal optimism, and intraweek lows of 14078 were printed on Tuesday. Risk aversion however picked up later in the week following President Trump's signing of the HK bill which may likely instigate China and spoil the trade talks. Pair was however capped at 14100 initially, possibly stalled by authorities, but broke above on Friday to test the 14115 resistance as we had expected.

USD/INR onshore spot traded in v-shaped pattern on Tuesday, seeing a bearish bias first to slip to 3-week lows of 71.295 amid expectations of reforms from the Modi government following announcements of divestments. U.S/China trade talks however still kept investors jittery and the slowdown expected in Q3 GDP data on Friday boosted risk aversion and brought the pair back to 71.800 levels at last look on Friday.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - Quiet markets still mean no change to our view that the pair will remain within 7.0000-7.1000 near-term. For USD/CNY, Further gains is likely to be capped, the pair may target support at 7.0197.

USD/SGD - Eyes will be on the 1.3700 big figure as dollar continues to strength. If broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3721 resistance.

USD/IDR - Gains above 14115 will be tough unless trade talks see a real deterioration, in which case 14150 is likely to cap.

USD/INR - Pair is likely to face continued upside pressures amid domestic and external volatilities, and the 72 level may be eyed again.


Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 08:51 (GMT) 29 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

29 Nov 2019

Charu Chanana, Jiaxin Lu, Defa Zhao

Regional Backdrop:

Majority of the Asian currencies weakened against the dollar during the week as the dollar strengthened amid a strong Q3's GDP showing. Initial trade optimism was pared towards the end of the week, after Trump's signed the Bill in support of the Hong Kong protestors, risking possible retaliation from China. JPY was the biggest loser, down 0.80% against the dollar. Other currencies saw modest losses against the dollar as well: KRW (-0.21%), SGD (-0.19%), INR (-0.17%), THB (-0.15%), IDR (-0.15%) and MYR (-0.08%). CNH and CNY were the only winners, up 0.18% and 0.16% respectively against the greenback. TWD, PHP and HKD were relatively stable.

USD/CNH continued to be driven by trade headlines. Trade optimism at the start of the week spurred modest gains in offshore yuan, USD/CNH slipped to a low of 7.0091 on Tuesday. Market sentiment was subsequently dampened by the decision of US President Trump to sign Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, and USD/CNH edged up to 7.0350 at last look.

USD/CNY was largely range bound during the week. Pair traded mostly between 7.0217 -7.0358 amid trade jitters. 1Y NDFs tested the low of 7.0855 on Wednesday, and traded higher to 7.1050 thereafter.

USD/SGD traded with an upside bias across the week amid strength in the dollar. Pair extended its gains from around 1.3640 at the beginning of the week to 1.3671 on Friday, a fresh high since mid-October. Dollar strengthened after U.S's Q3 GDP beat expectations. Risk aversion rose as well after Trump has signed the human rights Bill in support for the Hong Kong protestors. Meanwhile, Singapore's October CPI remained weak and slipped further to 0.4% y/y from 0.5% y/y in September. However, Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September.

USD/IDR onshore spot started the week lower amid U.S./China trade deal optimism, and intraweek lows of 14078 were printed on Tuesday. Risk aversion however picked up later in the week following President Trump's signing of the HK bill which may likely instigate China and spoil the trade talks. Pair was however capped at 14100 initially, possibly stalled by authorities, but broke above on Friday to test the 14115 resistance as we had expected.

USD/INR onshore spot traded in v-shaped pattern on Tuesday, seeing a bearish bias first to slip to 3-week lows of 71.295 amid expectations of reforms from the Modi government following announcements of divestments. U.S/China trade talks however still kept investors jittery and the slowdown expected in Q3 GDP data on Friday boosted risk aversion and brought the pair back to 71.800 levels at last look on Friday.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - Quiet markets still mean no change to our view that the pair will remain within 7.0000-7.1000 near-term. For USD/CNY, Further gains is likely to be capped, the pair may target support at 7.0197.

USD/SGD - Eyes will be on the 1.3700 big figure as dollar continues to strength. If broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3721 resistance.

USD/IDR - Gains above 14115 will be tough unless trade talks see a real deterioration, in which case 14150 is likely to cap.

USD/INR - Pair is likely to face continued upside pressures amid domestic and external volatilities, and the 72 level may be eyed again.


Forex - Indonesia Flows: USD/IDR still capped at 14100


 02:41 (GMT) 29 Nov

 [Forex Flows]

USD/IDR onshore spot gapped a notch lower to open at 14090 from previous close of 14093 but moved towards 14100 again, and was possibly capped by authorities again. US/China trade talks are at risk again after President Trump signed the HK bill, and fiscal deficit at home is also seeing risks of slippage as government attempts to support growth. No risk is seen to 14050 support and upside pressures are likely to return. We continue to see a risk of another move towards 14110 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that. 1M NDFs meanwhile continued to trade in consolidation around 14140 this morning again. JKSE up by nearly 0.5% at last check.


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:43 (GMT) 27 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 28 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index was supported by upbeat economic data even as trade news started to get the pair fatigued. A strong initial round of US data (durables, GDP and initial claims) saw EUR/USD dip below 1.10 though subsequent data was less impressive helping the pair to stabilize. Continued optimism on a US-China trade deal pushed USD/JPY above 109.50.

But President Trump signed a bill in late NY/early Asian hours in support of HK protestors which saw risk aversion creep in as well. USD/JPY dropped to 109.35 and AUD/JPY slid from 74.295 highs to 73.913.

The EUR was soft despite better than expected French November consumer confidence data - the strongest since June 2017 and the second strongest since the GFC, though Italian business and consumer confidence were both weaker than expected.

GBP may have benefitted from a perception that Labour's electoral prospects will have been harmed by an interview with leader Corbyn screened on Tuesday night. Gains extended on talk that an upcoming closely watched poll from YouGov MRP would show a comfortable Conservative majority, pushing GBP/USD above 1.29.

Commodity currencies saw some support from strength in equities but eventually the firm USD tone make its mark. An AUD recovery in Europe only corrected losses seen in Asia, and a USD/CAD dip to the lowest level since last week failed to hold.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Q3 GDP revised to 2.1% from 1.9% vs 1.9% exp.

- US Nov durable goods orders +0.6% vs -0.9% exp, ex transport +0.6% vs +0.1% exp.

- US initial claims fell to 213k from 228k vs 221k exp.

- US Nov Chicago PMI rose to 46.3 from 43.2 vs 47.0 exp.

- US Oct pending home sales -1.7% vs +0.2% exp.

- US Oct personal income 0.0% vs +0.3% exp, spending +0.3% as exp, core PCE prices +0.1% as exp.

- VIX index: 11.75 (+1.82%)

- Gold Spot: $1,457.15/oz (+0.19%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $64.06 ($-0.21)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $58.01 ($-0.10)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.35 (-0.42%)

- 10y UST: 1.765% (+2bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,164.00 (+0.15%); S&P: 3,153.63 (+0.42%); Nasdaq: 8,705.18 (+0.66%)

Data/Events Ahead:

It is the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., so a quiet move to the weekend. Equity and bond markets will be closed.

Japan's October retail sales will provide further clue on the impact of sales tax hike. We expect retails sales to fall back by about 7.1% y/y in October after last-minute demand pushed sales higher in September.

Australia's private capital expenditure will also be released.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

A mixed day for Asian currencies amid dollar strength and trade optimism. MYR (+0.29%) and INR (+0.20%) were the biggest winners. MYR strengthened following optimism from the Malaysian government on Q4 GDP. INR gained due to sustained hopes of domestic reforms. PHP and CNY were both up 0.20% and 0.07% respectively. However, THB (-0.11%), KRW (-0.10%) and SGD (-0.08%) were in mild losses.

USD/CNH was seen trading on either side of 7.0200 on Wednesday before a surge to 7.0300 levels early this morning after President Trump signed the HK support bill. However, pair remains within the 7.0000-7.1000 range for now. We see this pattern continuing. Onshore spot USD/CNY remained slightly lower on Wednesday and traded around 7.0250 in the day, but may likely target the upper end of recent range at 7.0450. 1Y NDF broke above 7.1000 handle on HK news after trading closer to 7.0950 on Wednesday.

USD/SGD re-tested the upside at 1.3665 resistance on Wednesday but reversed later towards 1.3650. Pair however saw upside pressures early this morning on reports of President Trump signing the HK bill, which may pressures trade talks as well and instigate a response from the Chine side. Pair last seen close to 1.3660. Eyes will be on the 1.3675 resistance. If broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3721 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded horizontally around 14140 on Wednesday. USD/IDR onshore spot remained close to Tuesday's close of 14088 in early trading on Wednesday, although some gains to 14103 were seen in the afternoon, with possible BI capping further gains. The continued rhetoric around the U.S./China phase 1 trade deal is helping to revive sentiments, but investors are now fatigued and await real developments. We believe the pair remains fragile amid trade risks and a widening budget deficit at home. Support at 14050 not at risk and upside pressures are likely to return. We continue to see a risk of another move towards 14110 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that.

USD/INR 1M NDFs continued to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, and slid below 71.500 in late NY. USD/INR onshore spot also saw a bearish bias on Wednesday amid sustained hopes of domestic reforms. Pair broke the 71.545 support into the close on Tuesday and was seen printing fresh 2.5-week lows of 71.2950 in the afternoon. The U.S./China trade talks are also still ongoing, and Q3 2019 GDP growth data will be released at the end of the week - which is likely to show a further slowdown. Next support 71.155 is at risk but the 71 handle should continue to hold amid global trade uncertainties and domestic weakness.

Data/Events Highlights:

Wednesday was quiet in Asia in data terms.

Data/Events Ahead:

Another quiet day in Asia today in data terms, but South Korea's October IP will be released early on Friday - we expect a deceleration of 3.2% y/y from mild gains of 0.4% y/y in the last month.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -10.5, Prev: 7.1]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: -7.1% y/y [Mkt: -4.3, Prev: 9.1]

00:00 GMT / 08:00 SGT - NZ: ANZ Business Confidence (Nov) [Prev: -42.4]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Private Capital Expenditure (Q3) 4cast: -0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0, Prev: -0.5]

09:00 GMT / 17:00 SGT - EU: M3 Money Supply (sa) (Oct) [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.5]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Consumer Confidence (Nov Final) [Prev: -7.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Economic Confidence (Nov) [Mkt: 101, Prev: 100.8]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: Current Account Balance (Q3) [Mkt: -10, Prev: -6.38]

21:45 GMT / 05:45 SGT - NZ: Building Permits (Oct) [Prev: 7.2]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: -3.2% y/y [Mkt: -3.1, Prev: 0.4]

23:30 GMT / 07:30 SGT - JP: Job-to-Applicant Ratio (Oct) [Mkt: 1.56, Prev: 1.57]

23:30 GMT / 07:30 SGT - JP: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 2.4% [Mkt: 2.4, Prev: 2.4]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) [Mkt: -2, Prev: 1.7]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) 4cast: -2.5% y/y [Mkt: -5.2, Prev: 1.3]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- US: Market Holiday - Thanksgiving


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:43 (GMT) 27 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 28 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index was supported by upbeat economic data even as trade news started to get the pair fatigued. A strong initial round of US data (durables, GDP and initial claims) saw EUR/USD dip below 1.10 though subsequent data was less impressive helping the pair to stabilize. Continued optimism on a US-China trade deal pushed USD/JPY above 109.50.

But President Trump signed a bill in late NY/early Asian hours in support of HK protestors which saw risk aversion creep in as well. USD/JPY dropped to 109.35 and AUD/JPY slid from 74.295 highs to 73.913.

The EUR was soft despite better than expected French November consumer confidence data - the strongest since June 2017 and the second strongest since the GFC, though Italian business and consumer confidence were both weaker than expected.

GBP may have benefitted from a perception that Labour's electoral prospects will have been harmed by an interview with leader Corbyn screened on Tuesday night. Gains extended on talk that an upcoming closely watched poll from YouGov MRP would show a comfortable Conservative majority, pushing GBP/USD above 1.29.

Commodity currencies saw some support from strength in equities but eventually the firm USD tone make its mark. An AUD recovery in Europe only corrected losses seen in Asia, and a USD/CAD dip to the lowest level since last week failed to hold.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Q3 GDP revised to 2.1% from 1.9% vs 1.9% exp.

- US Nov durable goods orders +0.6% vs -0.9% exp, ex transport +0.6% vs +0.1% exp.

- US initial claims fell to 213k from 228k vs 221k exp.

- US Nov Chicago PMI rose to 46.3 from 43.2 vs 47.0 exp.

- US Oct pending home sales -1.7% vs +0.2% exp.

- US Oct personal income 0.0% vs +0.3% exp, spending +0.3% as exp, core PCE prices +0.1% as exp.

- VIX index: 11.75 (+1.82%)

- Gold Spot: $1,457.15/oz (+0.19%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $64.06 ($-0.21)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $58.01 ($-0.10)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.35 (-0.42%)

- 10y UST: 1.765% (+2bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,164.00 (+0.15%); S&P: 3,153.63 (+0.42%); Nasdaq: 8,705.18 (+0.66%)

Data/Events Ahead:

It is the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., so a quiet move to the weekend. Equity and bond markets will be closed.

Japan's October retail sales will provide further clue on the impact of sales tax hike. We expect retails sales to fall back by about 7.1% y/y in October after last-minute demand pushed sales higher in September.

Australia's private capital expenditure will also be released.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

A mixed day for Asian currencies amid dollar strength and trade optimism. MYR (+0.29%) and INR (+0.20%) were the biggest winners. MYR strengthened following optimism from the Malaysian government on Q4 GDP. INR gained due to sustained hopes of domestic reforms. PHP and CNY were both up 0.20% and 0.07% respectively. However, THB (-0.11%), KRW (-0.10%) and SGD (-0.08%) were in mild losses.

USD/CNH was seen trading on either side of 7.0200 on Wednesday before a surge to 7.0300 levels early this morning after President Trump signed the HK support bill. However, pair remains within the 7.0000-7.1000 range for now. We see this pattern continuing. Onshore spot USD/CNY remained slightly lower on Wednesday and traded around 7.0250 in the day, but may likely target the upper end of recent range at 7.0450. 1Y NDF broke above 7.1000 handle on HK news after trading closer to 7.0950 on Wednesday.

USD/SGD re-tested the upside at 1.3665 resistance on Wednesday but reversed later towards 1.3650. Pair however saw upside pressures early this morning on reports of President Trump signing the HK bill, which may pressures trade talks as well and instigate a response from the Chine side. Pair last seen close to 1.3660. Eyes will be on the 1.3675 resistance. If broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3721 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded horizontally around 14140 on Wednesday. USD/IDR onshore spot remained close to Tuesday's close of 14088 in early trading on Wednesday, although some gains to 14103 were seen in the afternoon, with possible BI capping further gains. The continued rhetoric around the U.S./China phase 1 trade deal is helping to revive sentiments, but investors are now fatigued and await real developments. We believe the pair remains fragile amid trade risks and a widening budget deficit at home. Support at 14050 not at risk and upside pressures are likely to return. We continue to see a risk of another move towards 14110 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that.

USD/INR 1M NDFs continued to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, and slid below 71.500 in late NY. USD/INR onshore spot also saw a bearish bias on Wednesday amid sustained hopes of domestic reforms. Pair broke the 71.545 support into the close on Tuesday and was seen printing fresh 2.5-week lows of 71.2950 in the afternoon. The U.S./China trade talks are also still ongoing, and Q3 2019 GDP growth data will be released at the end of the week - which is likely to show a further slowdown. Next support 71.155 is at risk but the 71 handle should continue to hold amid global trade uncertainties and domestic weakness.

Data/Events Highlights:

Wednesday was quiet in Asia in data terms.

Data/Events Ahead:

Another quiet day in Asia today in data terms, but South Korea's October IP will be released early on Friday - we expect a deceleration of 3.2% y/y from mild gains of 0.4% y/y in the last month.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -10.5, Prev: 7.1]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: -7.1% y/y [Mkt: -4.3, Prev: 9.1]

00:00 GMT / 08:00 SGT - NZ: ANZ Business Confidence (Nov) [Prev: -42.4]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Private Capital Expenditure (Q3) 4cast: -0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0, Prev: -0.5]

09:00 GMT / 17:00 SGT - EU: M3 Money Supply (sa) (Oct) [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.5]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Consumer Confidence (Nov Final) [Prev: -7.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Economic Confidence (Nov) [Mkt: 101, Prev: 100.8]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: Current Account Balance (Q3) [Mkt: -10, Prev: -6.38]

21:45 GMT / 05:45 SGT - NZ: Building Permits (Oct) [Prev: 7.2]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: -3.2% y/y [Mkt: -3.1, Prev: 0.4]

23:30 GMT / 07:30 SGT - JP: Job-to-Applicant Ratio (Oct) [Mkt: 1.56, Prev: 1.57]

23:30 GMT / 07:30 SGT - JP: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 2.4% [Mkt: 2.4, Prev: 2.4]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) [Mkt: -2, Prev: 1.7]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) 4cast: -2.5% y/y [Mkt: -5.2, Prev: 1.3]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- US: Market Holiday - Thanksgiving


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:43 (GMT) 27 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 28 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index was supported by upbeat economic data even as trade news started to get the pair fatigued. A strong initial round of US data (durables, GDP and initial claims) saw EUR/USD dip below 1.10 though subsequent data was less impressive helping the pair to stabilize. Continued optimism on a US-China trade deal pushed USD/JPY above 109.50.

But President Trump signed a bill in late NY/early Asian hours in support of HK protestors which saw risk aversion creep in as well. USD/JPY dropped to 109.35 and AUD/JPY slid from 74.295 highs to 73.913.

The EUR was soft despite better than expected French November consumer confidence data - the strongest since June 2017 and the second strongest since the GFC, though Italian business and consumer confidence were both weaker than expected.

GBP may have benefitted from a perception that Labour's electoral prospects will have been harmed by an interview with leader Corbyn screened on Tuesday night. Gains extended on talk that an upcoming closely watched poll from YouGov MRP would show a comfortable Conservative majority, pushing GBP/USD above 1.29.

Commodity currencies saw some support from strength in equities but eventually the firm USD tone make its mark. An AUD recovery in Europe only corrected losses seen in Asia, and a USD/CAD dip to the lowest level since last week failed to hold.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Q3 GDP revised to 2.1% from 1.9% vs 1.9% exp.

- US Nov durable goods orders +0.6% vs -0.9% exp, ex transport +0.6% vs +0.1% exp.

- US initial claims fell to 213k from 228k vs 221k exp.

- US Nov Chicago PMI rose to 46.3 from 43.2 vs 47.0 exp.

- US Oct pending home sales -1.7% vs +0.2% exp.

- US Oct personal income 0.0% vs +0.3% exp, spending +0.3% as exp, core PCE prices +0.1% as exp.

- VIX index: 11.75 (+1.82%)

- Gold Spot: $1,457.15/oz (+0.19%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $64.06 ($-0.21)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $58.01 ($-0.10)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.35 (-0.42%)

- 10y UST: 1.765% (+2bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,164.00 (+0.15%); S&P: 3,153.63 (+0.42%); Nasdaq: 8,705.18 (+0.66%)

Data/Events Ahead:

It is the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., so a quiet move to the weekend. Equity and bond markets will be closed.

Japan's October retail sales will provide further clue on the impact of sales tax hike. We expect retails sales to fall back by about 7.1% y/y in October after last-minute demand pushed sales higher in September.

Australia's private capital expenditure will also be released.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

A mixed day for Asian currencies amid dollar strength and trade optimism. MYR (+0.29%) and INR (+0.20%) were the biggest winners. MYR strengthened following optimism from the Malaysian government on Q4 GDP. INR gained due to sustained hopes of domestic reforms. PHP and CNY were both up 0.20% and 0.07% respectively. However, THB (-0.11%), KRW (-0.10%) and SGD (-0.08%) were in mild losses.

USD/CNH was seen trading on either side of 7.0200 on Wednesday before a surge to 7.0300 levels early this morning after President Trump signed the HK support bill. However, pair remains within the 7.0000-7.1000 range for now. We see this pattern continuing. Onshore spot USD/CNY remained slightly lower on Wednesday and traded around 7.0250 in the day, but may likely target the upper end of recent range at 7.0450. 1Y NDF broke above 7.1000 handle on HK news after trading closer to 7.0950 on Wednesday.

USD/SGD re-tested the upside at 1.3665 resistance on Wednesday but reversed later towards 1.3650. Pair however saw upside pressures early this morning on reports of President Trump signing the HK bill, which may pressures trade talks as well and instigate a response from the Chine side. Pair last seen close to 1.3660. Eyes will be on the 1.3675 resistance. If broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3721 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded horizontally around 14140 on Wednesday. USD/IDR onshore spot remained close to Tuesday's close of 14088 in early trading on Wednesday, although some gains to 14103 were seen in the afternoon, with possible BI capping further gains. The continued rhetoric around the U.S./China phase 1 trade deal is helping to revive sentiments, but investors are now fatigued and await real developments. We believe the pair remains fragile amid trade risks and a widening budget deficit at home. Support at 14050 not at risk and upside pressures are likely to return. We continue to see a risk of another move towards 14110 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that.

USD/INR 1M NDFs continued to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, and slid below 71.500 in late NY. USD/INR onshore spot also saw a bearish bias on Wednesday amid sustained hopes of domestic reforms. Pair broke the 71.545 support into the close on Tuesday and was seen printing fresh 2.5-week lows of 71.2950 in the afternoon. The U.S./China trade talks are also still ongoing, and Q3 2019 GDP growth data will be released at the end of the week - which is likely to show a further slowdown. Next support 71.155 is at risk but the 71 handle should continue to hold amid global trade uncertainties and domestic weakness.

Data/Events Highlights:

Wednesday was quiet in Asia in data terms.

Data/Events Ahead:

Another quiet day in Asia today in data terms, but South Korea's October IP will be released early on Friday - we expect a deceleration of 3.2% y/y from mild gains of 0.4% y/y in the last month.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -10.5, Prev: 7.1]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: -7.1% y/y [Mkt: -4.3, Prev: 9.1]

00:00 GMT / 08:00 SGT - NZ: ANZ Business Confidence (Nov) [Prev: -42.4]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Private Capital Expenditure (Q3) 4cast: -0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0, Prev: -0.5]

09:00 GMT / 17:00 SGT - EU: M3 Money Supply (sa) (Oct) [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.5]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Consumer Confidence (Nov Final) [Prev: -7.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Economic Confidence (Nov) [Mkt: 101, Prev: 100.8]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: Current Account Balance (Q3) [Mkt: -10, Prev: -6.38]

21:45 GMT / 05:45 SGT - NZ: Building Permits (Oct) [Prev: 7.2]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: -3.2% y/y [Mkt: -3.1, Prev: 0.4]

23:30 GMT / 07:30 SGT - JP: Job-to-Applicant Ratio (Oct) [Mkt: 1.56, Prev: 1.57]

23:30 GMT / 07:30 SGT - JP: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 2.4% [Mkt: 2.4, Prev: 2.4]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) [Mkt: -2, Prev: 1.7]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) 4cast: -2.5% y/y [Mkt: -5.2, Prev: 1.3]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- US: Market Holiday - Thanksgiving


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:43 (GMT) 27 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 28 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index was supported by upbeat economic data even as trade news started to get the pair fatigued. A strong initial round of US data (durables, GDP and initial claims) saw EUR/USD dip below 1.10 though subsequent data was less impressive helping the pair to stabilize. Continued optimism on a US-China trade deal pushed USD/JPY above 109.50.

But President Trump signed a bill in late NY/early Asian hours in support of HK protestors which saw risk aversion creep in as well. USD/JPY dropped to 109.35 and AUD/JPY slid from 74.295 highs to 73.913.

The EUR was soft despite better than expected French November consumer confidence data - the strongest since June 2017 and the second strongest since the GFC, though Italian business and consumer confidence were both weaker than expected.

GBP may have benefitted from a perception that Labour's electoral prospects will have been harmed by an interview with leader Corbyn screened on Tuesday night. Gains extended on talk that an upcoming closely watched poll from YouGov MRP would show a comfortable Conservative majority, pushing GBP/USD above 1.29.

Commodity currencies saw some support from strength in equities but eventually the firm USD tone make its mark. An AUD recovery in Europe only corrected losses seen in Asia, and a USD/CAD dip to the lowest level since last week failed to hold.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Q3 GDP revised to 2.1% from 1.9% vs 1.9% exp.

- US Nov durable goods orders +0.6% vs -0.9% exp, ex transport +0.6% vs +0.1% exp.

- US initial claims fell to 213k from 228k vs 221k exp.

- US Nov Chicago PMI rose to 46.3 from 43.2 vs 47.0 exp.

- US Oct pending home sales -1.7% vs +0.2% exp.

- US Oct personal income 0.0% vs +0.3% exp, spending +0.3% as exp, core PCE prices +0.1% as exp.

- VIX index: 11.75 (+1.82%)

- Gold Spot: $1,457.15/oz (+0.19%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $64.06 ($-0.21)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $58.01 ($-0.10)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.35 (-0.42%)

- 10y UST: 1.765% (+2bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,164.00 (+0.15%); S&P: 3,153.63 (+0.42%); Nasdaq: 8,705.18 (+0.66%)

Data/Events Ahead:

It is the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., so a quiet move to the weekend. Equity and bond markets will be closed.

Japan's October retail sales will provide further clue on the impact of sales tax hike. We expect retails sales to fall back by about 7.1% y/y in October after last-minute demand pushed sales higher in September.

Australia's private capital expenditure will also be released.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

A mixed day for Asian currencies amid dollar strength and trade optimism. MYR (+0.29%) and INR (+0.20%) were the biggest winners. MYR strengthened following optimism from the Malaysian government on Q4 GDP. INR gained due to sustained hopes of domestic reforms. PHP and CNY were both up 0.20% and 0.07% respectively. However, THB (-0.11%), KRW (-0.10%) and SGD (-0.08%) were in mild losses.

USD/CNH was seen trading on either side of 7.0200 on Wednesday before a surge to 7.0300 levels early this morning after President Trump signed the HK support bill. However, pair remains within the 7.0000-7.1000 range for now. We see this pattern continuing. Onshore spot USD/CNY remained slightly lower on Wednesday and traded around 7.0250 in the day, but may likely target the upper end of recent range at 7.0450. 1Y NDF broke above 7.1000 handle on HK news after trading closer to 7.0950 on Wednesday.

USD/SGD re-tested the upside at 1.3665 resistance on Wednesday but reversed later towards 1.3650. Pair however saw upside pressures early this morning on reports of President Trump signing the HK bill, which may pressures trade talks as well and instigate a response from the Chine side. Pair last seen close to 1.3660. Eyes will be on the 1.3675 resistance. If broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3721 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded horizontally around 14140 on Wednesday. USD/IDR onshore spot remained close to Tuesday's close of 14088 in early trading on Wednesday, although some gains to 14103 were seen in the afternoon, with possible BI capping further gains. The continued rhetoric around the U.S./China phase 1 trade deal is helping to revive sentiments, but investors are now fatigued and await real developments. We believe the pair remains fragile amid trade risks and a widening budget deficit at home. Support at 14050 not at risk and upside pressures are likely to return. We continue to see a risk of another move towards 14110 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that.

USD/INR 1M NDFs continued to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, and slid below 71.500 in late NY. USD/INR onshore spot also saw a bearish bias on Wednesday amid sustained hopes of domestic reforms. Pair broke the 71.545 support into the close on Tuesday and was seen printing fresh 2.5-week lows of 71.2950 in the afternoon. The U.S./China trade talks are also still ongoing, and Q3 2019 GDP growth data will be released at the end of the week - which is likely to show a further slowdown. Next support 71.155 is at risk but the 71 handle should continue to hold amid global trade uncertainties and domestic weakness.

Data/Events Highlights:

Wednesday was quiet in Asia in data terms.

Data/Events Ahead:

Another quiet day in Asia today in data terms, but South Korea's October IP will be released early on Friday - we expect a deceleration of 3.2% y/y from mild gains of 0.4% y/y in the last month.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -10.5, Prev: 7.1]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: -7.1% y/y [Mkt: -4.3, Prev: 9.1]

00:00 GMT / 08:00 SGT - NZ: ANZ Business Confidence (Nov) [Prev: -42.4]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Private Capital Expenditure (Q3) 4cast: -0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0, Prev: -0.5]

09:00 GMT / 17:00 SGT - EU: M3 Money Supply (sa) (Oct) [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.5]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Consumer Confidence (Nov Final) [Prev: -7.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Economic Confidence (Nov) [Mkt: 101, Prev: 100.8]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: Current Account Balance (Q3) [Mkt: -10, Prev: -6.38]

21:45 GMT / 05:45 SGT - NZ: Building Permits (Oct) [Prev: 7.2]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: -3.2% y/y [Mkt: -3.1, Prev: 0.4]

23:30 GMT / 07:30 SGT - JP: Job-to-Applicant Ratio (Oct) [Mkt: 1.56, Prev: 1.57]

23:30 GMT / 07:30 SGT - JP: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 2.4% [Mkt: 2.4, Prev: 2.4]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) [Mkt: -2, Prev: 1.7]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) 4cast: -2.5% y/y [Mkt: -5.2, Prev: 1.3]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- US: Market Holiday - Thanksgiving


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:43 (GMT) 27 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 28 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index was supported by upbeat economic data even as trade news started to get the pair fatigued. A strong initial round of US data (durables, GDP and initial claims) saw EUR/USD dip below 1.10 though subsequent data was less impressive helping the pair to stabilize. Continued optimism on a US-China trade deal pushed USD/JPY above 109.50.

But President Trump signed a bill in late NY/early Asian hours in support of HK protestors which saw risk aversion creep in as well. USD/JPY dropped to 109.35 and AUD/JPY slid from 74.295 highs to 73.913.

The EUR was soft despite better than expected French November consumer confidence data - the strongest since June 2017 and the second strongest since the GFC, though Italian business and consumer confidence were both weaker than expected.

GBP may have benefitted from a perception that Labour's electoral prospects will have been harmed by an interview with leader Corbyn screened on Tuesday night. Gains extended on talk that an upcoming closely watched poll from YouGov MRP would show a comfortable Conservative majority, pushing GBP/USD above 1.29.

Commodity currencies saw some support from strength in equities but eventually the firm USD tone make its mark. An AUD recovery in Europe only corrected losses seen in Asia, and a USD/CAD dip to the lowest level since last week failed to hold.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Q3 GDP revised to 2.1% from 1.9% vs 1.9% exp.

- US Nov durable goods orders +0.6% vs -0.9% exp, ex transport +0.6% vs +0.1% exp.

- US initial claims fell to 213k from 228k vs 221k exp.

- US Nov Chicago PMI rose to 46.3 from 43.2 vs 47.0 exp.

- US Oct pending home sales -1.7% vs +0.2% exp.

- US Oct personal income 0.0% vs +0.3% exp, spending +0.3% as exp, core PCE prices +0.1% as exp.

- VIX index: 11.75 (+1.82%)

- Gold Spot: $1,457.15/oz (+0.19%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $64.06 ($-0.21)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $58.01 ($-0.10)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.35 (-0.42%)

- 10y UST: 1.765% (+2bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,164.00 (+0.15%); S&P: 3,153.63 (+0.42%); Nasdaq: 8,705.18 (+0.66%)

Data/Events Ahead:

It is the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., so a quiet move to the weekend. Equity and bond markets will be closed.

Japan's October retail sales will provide further clue on the impact of sales tax hike. We expect retails sales to fall back by about 7.1% y/y in October after last-minute demand pushed sales higher in September.

Australia's private capital expenditure will also be released.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

A mixed day for Asian currencies amid dollar strength and trade optimism. MYR (+0.29%) and INR (+0.20%) were the biggest winners. MYR strengthened following optimism from the Malaysian government on Q4 GDP. INR gained due to sustained hopes of domestic reforms. PHP and CNY were both up 0.20% and 0.07% respectively. However, THB (-0.11%), KRW (-0.10%) and SGD (-0.08%) were in mild losses.

USD/CNH was seen trading on either side of 7.0200 on Wednesday before a surge to 7.0300 levels early this morning after President Trump signed the HK support bill. However, pair remains within the 7.0000-7.1000 range for now. We see this pattern continuing. Onshore spot USD/CNY remained slightly lower on Wednesday and traded around 7.0250 in the day, but may likely target the upper end of recent range at 7.0450. 1Y NDF broke above 7.1000 handle on HK news after trading closer to 7.0950 on Wednesday.

USD/SGD re-tested the upside at 1.3665 resistance on Wednesday but reversed later towards 1.3650. Pair however saw upside pressures early this morning on reports of President Trump signing the HK bill, which may pressures trade talks as well and instigate a response from the Chine side. Pair last seen close to 1.3660. Eyes will be on the 1.3675 resistance. If broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3721 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded horizontally around 14140 on Wednesday. USD/IDR onshore spot remained close to Tuesday's close of 14088 in early trading on Wednesday, although some gains to 14103 were seen in the afternoon, with possible BI capping further gains. The continued rhetoric around the U.S./China phase 1 trade deal is helping to revive sentiments, but investors are now fatigued and await real developments. We believe the pair remains fragile amid trade risks and a widening budget deficit at home. Support at 14050 not at risk and upside pressures are likely to return. We continue to see a risk of another move towards 14110 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that.

USD/INR 1M NDFs continued to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, and slid below 71.500 in late NY. USD/INR onshore spot also saw a bearish bias on Wednesday amid sustained hopes of domestic reforms. Pair broke the 71.545 support into the close on Tuesday and was seen printing fresh 2.5-week lows of 71.2950 in the afternoon. The U.S./China trade talks are also still ongoing, and Q3 2019 GDP growth data will be released at the end of the week - which is likely to show a further slowdown. Next support 71.155 is at risk but the 71 handle should continue to hold amid global trade uncertainties and domestic weakness.

Data/Events Highlights:

Wednesday was quiet in Asia in data terms.

Data/Events Ahead:

Another quiet day in Asia today in data terms, but South Korea's October IP will be released early on Friday - we expect a deceleration of 3.2% y/y from mild gains of 0.4% y/y in the last month.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -10.5, Prev: 7.1]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: -7.1% y/y [Mkt: -4.3, Prev: 9.1]

00:00 GMT / 08:00 SGT - NZ: ANZ Business Confidence (Nov) [Prev: -42.4]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Private Capital Expenditure (Q3) 4cast: -0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0, Prev: -0.5]

09:00 GMT / 17:00 SGT - EU: M3 Money Supply (sa) (Oct) [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.5]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Consumer Confidence (Nov Final) [Prev: -7.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Economic Confidence (Nov) [Mkt: 101, Prev: 100.8]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: Current Account Balance (Q3) [Mkt: -10, Prev: -6.38]

21:45 GMT / 05:45 SGT - NZ: Building Permits (Oct) [Prev: 7.2]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: -3.2% y/y [Mkt: -3.1, Prev: 0.4]

23:30 GMT / 07:30 SGT - JP: Job-to-Applicant Ratio (Oct) [Mkt: 1.56, Prev: 1.57]

23:30 GMT / 07:30 SGT - JP: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 2.4% [Mkt: 2.4, Prev: 2.4]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) [Mkt: -2, Prev: 1.7]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) 4cast: -2.5% y/y [Mkt: -5.2, Prev: 1.3]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- US: Market Holiday - Thanksgiving


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:46 (GMT) 26 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 27 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index appeared fatigued of the U.S./China trade news on Tuesday and softened slightly to sub-98.300 levels in NY.

Positive trade sentiment was helped by remarks by White House's Conway, saying the US and China were close to agreeing a phase 1 deal, though sticking points remained. Trump later expressed a similar view. This saw USD/JPY as high as 109.19.

A slow news morning in Europe saw some weakness in GBP, based on the two most recent opinion polls from Kantar and ICM research showing a narrowing in the Conservative lead over Labour, with the ICM poll showing Labour on 34% - the highest since April.

EUR/USD kept to a tight range above 1.10. The German Gfk consumer climate survey was a tick stronger than expected but in line with the stable trend in the second half of the year. US data was on balance stronger than expected, with a narrower trade deficit and stronger than expected new home sales outweighing disappointment on consumer confidence.

AUD/USD saw brief gains on a speech from RBA governor Lowe, who ruled out QE until or unless rates fell to 0.25% from the current 0.75%. While the initial gains of around 20 pips were reversed, commodity currencies gained a positive tone later in the day due to improved trade sentiment, CAD outperforming AUD.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US advance Oct trade deficit fell to $66.5bn from $70.5bn vs $71.0bn exp.

- US Nov consumer confidence fell to 125.5 from 126.1 vs 127.0 exp.

- US Oct new home sales -0.7% to 733k vs 705k exp.

- VIX index: 11.54 (-2.78%)

- Gold Spot: $1,461.78/oz (+0.03%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $64.27 (+$0.62)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $58.22 ($-0.19)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 181.10 (+0.29%)

- 10y UST: 1.741% (-1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,121.68 (+0.20%); S&P: 3,140.52 (+0.22%); Nasdaq: 8,647.93 (+0.18%)

Data/Events Ahead:

A bunch of U.S. data is scheduled for release as Thursday is the Thanksgiving holiday - including GDP, jobless claims, durable goods, personal income/spending. We expect a 0.3% decline in Oct durable goods orders with a marginal 0.1% increase ex transport. The preliminary (second) estimate of Q3 GDP is due, and we expect an unrevised 1.9% pace. We also expect a 0.2% increase in Oct's core PCE price index, a 0.3% rise in Oct personal income, and a 0.2% rise in Oct personal spending.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were mixed on Tuesday as dollar continued to strengthen following Fed's Powel optimistic tone on the U.S. economy but trade optimism also persisted. PHP was the biggest loser down 0.26% against the dollar. MYR was down 0.12% as well against the greenback. INR was the biggest winner on the other hand, up 0.33% against the dollar amid gains in domestic equities after the ArcellorMittal's takeover of a steel mill. CNH (+0.24%), THB (+0.07%) and SGD (+0.05%) also remained in gains.

USD/CNH traded mixed on Tuesday, rising to 7.0400+ levels earlier but dropping quickly and sharply to 7.0091 lows in the NY session. However, pair remains within the 7.0000-7.1000 range for now. We see this pattern continuing. Onshore spot USD/CNY similarly rose to intraday highs of 7.0420 in the afternoon before a plunge back to 7.0300-levels into the close - not as deep as the offshore yuan. If trade hope continues to support, USD/CNY may return to trade at 7.0000 level. 1Y NDF printed lows of 7.0874 in Tuesday's NY session and traded horizontally around 7.0925 subsequently.

USD/SGD printed 5-week highs of 1.3667 in late Asian/early European hours on Tuesday but pared all of these gains and was seen back at sub-1.3650 levels in the NY hours. Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September. Following the break above the 1.3664 resistance, we will turn our attention to the 1.3675 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs touched highs of 14161 early in the NY session but pared the gains and was seen back at 14130-levels into NY close. USD/IDR onshore spot remained below 14090 mostly on Tuesday after hitting 14100+ levels last week. The improved optimism around the U.S./China phase 1 trade deal is helping to revive sentiments, but we believe the pair is still fragile amid trade risks and a widening budget deficit at home. Support at 14050 not at risk and upside pressures are likely to return. We continue to see a risk of another move towards 14110 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that.

USD/INR 1M NDFs traded with a steady downside bias on Tuesday, defying market pressures, and was seen at 71.600 lows in NY. USD/INR onshore spot gapped slightly lower to open at 71.680 on Tuesday from previous close of 71.725 and traded to fresh 2.5-week lows of 71.475 in the afternoon. Optimism around the labor reform is still mixed, but stronger chances could boost the rupee. The U.S./China trade talks are also still ongoing, and Q3 2019 GDP growth data will be released at the end of the week - which is likely to show a further slowdown. Break below the 71.545 support is still looking fragile, and the 71 handle should still hold amid global trade uncertainties and domestic weakness.

Data/Events Highlights:

Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September.

Data/Events Ahead:

No key data is reported in Asia on Wednesday.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Construction Work Done (Q3) 4cast: -1.5% q/q [Mkt: -1, Prev: -3.8]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: GDP Annualized (3Q S) 4cast: 1.9% q/q ann [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.9]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 23) [Mkt: 221, Prev: 227]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Core PCE Price Index (3Q S) 4cast: 2.2% q/q ann [Mkt: 2.2, Prev: 2.2]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Durable Ex Transportation (Oct P) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: -0.4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Durable Goods Orders (Oct P) 4cast: -0.3% m/m [Mkt: -0.8, Prev: -1.2]

14:45 GMT / 22:45 SGT - US: Chicago PMI (Nov) [Mkt: 47.1, Prev: 43.2]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Pending Home Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -0.2, Prev: 1.5]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Personal spending (Oct) 4cast: 0.2% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Personal income (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Core PCE Price Index (Oct) 4cast: 0.2% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -10.5, Prev: 7.1]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: -7.1% y/y [Mkt: -4.3, Prev: 9.1]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

18:00 GMT / 02:00 SGT - US: 7 year auction

19:00 GMT / 03:00 SGT - US: Fed Beige Book


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:46 (GMT) 26 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 27 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index appeared fatigued of the U.S./China trade news on Tuesday and softened slightly to sub-98.300 levels in NY.

Positive trade sentiment was helped by remarks by White House's Conway, saying the US and China were close to agreeing a phase 1 deal, though sticking points remained. Trump later expressed a similar view. This saw USD/JPY as high as 109.19.

A slow news morning in Europe saw some weakness in GBP, based on the two most recent opinion polls from Kantar and ICM research showing a narrowing in the Conservative lead over Labour, with the ICM poll showing Labour on 34% - the highest since April.

EUR/USD kept to a tight range above 1.10. The German Gfk consumer climate survey was a tick stronger than expected but in line with the stable trend in the second half of the year. US data was on balance stronger than expected, with a narrower trade deficit and stronger than expected new home sales outweighing disappointment on consumer confidence.

AUD/USD saw brief gains on a speech from RBA governor Lowe, who ruled out QE until or unless rates fell to 0.25% from the current 0.75%. While the initial gains of around 20 pips were reversed, commodity currencies gained a positive tone later in the day due to improved trade sentiment, CAD outperforming AUD.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US advance Oct trade deficit fell to $66.5bn from $70.5bn vs $71.0bn exp.

- US Nov consumer confidence fell to 125.5 from 126.1 vs 127.0 exp.

- US Oct new home sales -0.7% to 733k vs 705k exp.

- VIX index: 11.54 (-2.78%)

- Gold Spot: $1,461.78/oz (+0.03%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $64.27 (+$0.62)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $58.22 ($-0.19)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 181.10 (+0.29%)

- 10y UST: 1.741% (-1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,121.68 (+0.20%); S&P: 3,140.52 (+0.22%); Nasdaq: 8,647.93 (+0.18%)

Data/Events Ahead:

A bunch of U.S. data is scheduled for release as Thursday is the Thanksgiving holiday - including GDP, jobless claims, durable goods, personal income/spending. We expect a 0.3% decline in Oct durable goods orders with a marginal 0.1% increase ex transport. The preliminary (second) estimate of Q3 GDP is due, and we expect an unrevised 1.9% pace. We also expect a 0.2% increase in Oct's core PCE price index, a 0.3% rise in Oct personal income, and a 0.2% rise in Oct personal spending.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were mixed on Tuesday as dollar continued to strengthen following Fed's Powel optimistic tone on the U.S. economy but trade optimism also persisted. PHP was the biggest loser down 0.26% against the dollar. MYR was down 0.12% as well against the greenback. INR was the biggest winner on the other hand, up 0.33% against the dollar amid gains in domestic equities after the ArcellorMittal's takeover of a steel mill. CNH (+0.24%), THB (+0.07%) and SGD (+0.05%) also remained in gains.

USD/CNH traded mixed on Tuesday, rising to 7.0400+ levels earlier but dropping quickly and sharply to 7.0091 lows in the NY session. However, pair remains within the 7.0000-7.1000 range for now. We see this pattern continuing. Onshore spot USD/CNY similarly rose to intraday highs of 7.0420 in the afternoon before a plunge back to 7.0300-levels into the close - not as deep as the offshore yuan. If trade hope continues to support, USD/CNY may return to trade at 7.0000 level. 1Y NDF printed lows of 7.0874 in Tuesday's NY session and traded horizontally around 7.0925 subsequently.

USD/SGD printed 5-week highs of 1.3667 in late Asian/early European hours on Tuesday but pared all of these gains and was seen back at sub-1.3650 levels in the NY hours. Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September. Following the break above the 1.3664 resistance, we will turn our attention to the 1.3675 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs touched highs of 14161 early in the NY session but pared the gains and was seen back at 14130-levels into NY close. USD/IDR onshore spot remained below 14090 mostly on Tuesday after hitting 14100+ levels last week. The improved optimism around the U.S./China phase 1 trade deal is helping to revive sentiments, but we believe the pair is still fragile amid trade risks and a widening budget deficit at home. Support at 14050 not at risk and upside pressures are likely to return. We continue to see a risk of another move towards 14110 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that.

USD/INR 1M NDFs traded with a steady downside bias on Tuesday, defying market pressures, and was seen at 71.600 lows in NY. USD/INR onshore spot gapped slightly lower to open at 71.680 on Tuesday from previous close of 71.725 and traded to fresh 2.5-week lows of 71.475 in the afternoon. Optimism around the labor reform is still mixed, but stronger chances could boost the rupee. The U.S./China trade talks are also still ongoing, and Q3 2019 GDP growth data will be released at the end of the week - which is likely to show a further slowdown. Break below the 71.545 support is still looking fragile, and the 71 handle should still hold amid global trade uncertainties and domestic weakness.

Data/Events Highlights:

Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September.

Data/Events Ahead:

No key data is reported in Asia on Wednesday.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Construction Work Done (Q3) 4cast: -1.5% q/q [Mkt: -1, Prev: -3.8]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: GDP Annualized (3Q S) 4cast: 1.9% q/q ann [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.9]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 23) [Mkt: 221, Prev: 227]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Core PCE Price Index (3Q S) 4cast: 2.2% q/q ann [Mkt: 2.2, Prev: 2.2]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Durable Ex Transportation (Oct P) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: -0.4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Durable Goods Orders (Oct P) 4cast: -0.3% m/m [Mkt: -0.8, Prev: -1.2]

14:45 GMT / 22:45 SGT - US: Chicago PMI (Nov) [Mkt: 47.1, Prev: 43.2]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Pending Home Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -0.2, Prev: 1.5]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Personal spending (Oct) 4cast: 0.2% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Personal income (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Core PCE Price Index (Oct) 4cast: 0.2% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -10.5, Prev: 7.1]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: -7.1% y/y [Mkt: -4.3, Prev: 9.1]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

18:00 GMT / 02:00 SGT - US: 7 year auction

19:00 GMT / 03:00 SGT - US: Fed Beige Book


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:46 (GMT) 26 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 27 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index appeared fatigued of the U.S./China trade news on Tuesday and softened slightly to sub-98.300 levels in NY.

Positive trade sentiment was helped by remarks by White House's Conway, saying the US and China were close to agreeing a phase 1 deal, though sticking points remained. Trump later expressed a similar view. This saw USD/JPY as high as 109.19.

A slow news morning in Europe saw some weakness in GBP, based on the two most recent opinion polls from Kantar and ICM research showing a narrowing in the Conservative lead over Labour, with the ICM poll showing Labour on 34% - the highest since April.

EUR/USD kept to a tight range above 1.10. The German Gfk consumer climate survey was a tick stronger than expected but in line with the stable trend in the second half of the year. US data was on balance stronger than expected, with a narrower trade deficit and stronger than expected new home sales outweighing disappointment on consumer confidence.

AUD/USD saw brief gains on a speech from RBA governor Lowe, who ruled out QE until or unless rates fell to 0.25% from the current 0.75%. While the initial gains of around 20 pips were reversed, commodity currencies gained a positive tone later in the day due to improved trade sentiment, CAD outperforming AUD.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US advance Oct trade deficit fell to $66.5bn from $70.5bn vs $71.0bn exp.

- US Nov consumer confidence fell to 125.5 from 126.1 vs 127.0 exp.

- US Oct new home sales -0.7% to 733k vs 705k exp.

- VIX index: 11.54 (-2.78%)

- Gold Spot: $1,461.78/oz (+0.03%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $64.27 (+$0.62)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $58.22 ($-0.19)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 181.10 (+0.29%)

- 10y UST: 1.741% (-1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,121.68 (+0.20%); S&P: 3,140.52 (+0.22%); Nasdaq: 8,647.93 (+0.18%)

Data/Events Ahead:

A bunch of U.S. data is scheduled for release as Thursday is the Thanksgiving holiday - including GDP, jobless claims, durable goods, personal income/spending. We expect a 0.3% decline in Oct durable goods orders with a marginal 0.1% increase ex transport. The preliminary (second) estimate of Q3 GDP is due, and we expect an unrevised 1.9% pace. We also expect a 0.2% increase in Oct's core PCE price index, a 0.3% rise in Oct personal income, and a 0.2% rise in Oct personal spending.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were mixed on Tuesday as dollar continued to strengthen following Fed's Powel optimistic tone on the U.S. economy but trade optimism also persisted. PHP was the biggest loser down 0.26% against the dollar. MYR was down 0.12% as well against the greenback. INR was the biggest winner on the other hand, up 0.33% against the dollar amid gains in domestic equities after the ArcellorMittal's takeover of a steel mill. CNH (+0.24%), THB (+0.07%) and SGD (+0.05%) also remained in gains.

USD/CNH traded mixed on Tuesday, rising to 7.0400+ levels earlier but dropping quickly and sharply to 7.0091 lows in the NY session. However, pair remains within the 7.0000-7.1000 range for now. We see this pattern continuing. Onshore spot USD/CNY similarly rose to intraday highs of 7.0420 in the afternoon before a plunge back to 7.0300-levels into the close - not as deep as the offshore yuan. If trade hope continues to support, USD/CNY may return to trade at 7.0000 level. 1Y NDF printed lows of 7.0874 in Tuesday's NY session and traded horizontally around 7.0925 subsequently.

USD/SGD printed 5-week highs of 1.3667 in late Asian/early European hours on Tuesday but pared all of these gains and was seen back at sub-1.3650 levels in the NY hours. Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September. Following the break above the 1.3664 resistance, we will turn our attention to the 1.3675 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs touched highs of 14161 early in the NY session but pared the gains and was seen back at 14130-levels into NY close. USD/IDR onshore spot remained below 14090 mostly on Tuesday after hitting 14100+ levels last week. The improved optimism around the U.S./China phase 1 trade deal is helping to revive sentiments, but we believe the pair is still fragile amid trade risks and a widening budget deficit at home. Support at 14050 not at risk and upside pressures are likely to return. We continue to see a risk of another move towards 14110 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that.

USD/INR 1M NDFs traded with a steady downside bias on Tuesday, defying market pressures, and was seen at 71.600 lows in NY. USD/INR onshore spot gapped slightly lower to open at 71.680 on Tuesday from previous close of 71.725 and traded to fresh 2.5-week lows of 71.475 in the afternoon. Optimism around the labor reform is still mixed, but stronger chances could boost the rupee. The U.S./China trade talks are also still ongoing, and Q3 2019 GDP growth data will be released at the end of the week - which is likely to show a further slowdown. Break below the 71.545 support is still looking fragile, and the 71 handle should still hold amid global trade uncertainties and domestic weakness.

Data/Events Highlights:

Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September.

Data/Events Ahead:

No key data is reported in Asia on Wednesday.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Construction Work Done (Q3) 4cast: -1.5% q/q [Mkt: -1, Prev: -3.8]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: GDP Annualized (3Q S) 4cast: 1.9% q/q ann [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.9]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 23) [Mkt: 221, Prev: 227]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Core PCE Price Index (3Q S) 4cast: 2.2% q/q ann [Mkt: 2.2, Prev: 2.2]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Durable Ex Transportation (Oct P) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: -0.4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Durable Goods Orders (Oct P) 4cast: -0.3% m/m [Mkt: -0.8, Prev: -1.2]

14:45 GMT / 22:45 SGT - US: Chicago PMI (Nov) [Mkt: 47.1, Prev: 43.2]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Pending Home Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -0.2, Prev: 1.5]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Personal spending (Oct) 4cast: 0.2% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Personal income (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Core PCE Price Index (Oct) 4cast: 0.2% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -10.5, Prev: 7.1]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: -7.1% y/y [Mkt: -4.3, Prev: 9.1]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

18:00 GMT / 02:00 SGT - US: 7 year auction

19:00 GMT / 03:00 SGT - US: Fed Beige Book


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:46 (GMT) 26 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 27 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index appeared fatigued of the U.S./China trade news on Tuesday and softened slightly to sub-98.300 levels in NY.

Positive trade sentiment was helped by remarks by White House's Conway, saying the US and China were close to agreeing a phase 1 deal, though sticking points remained. Trump later expressed a similar view. This saw USD/JPY as high as 109.19.

A slow news morning in Europe saw some weakness in GBP, based on the two most recent opinion polls from Kantar and ICM research showing a narrowing in the Conservative lead over Labour, with the ICM poll showing Labour on 34% - the highest since April.

EUR/USD kept to a tight range above 1.10. The German Gfk consumer climate survey was a tick stronger than expected but in line with the stable trend in the second half of the year. US data was on balance stronger than expected, with a narrower trade deficit and stronger than expected new home sales outweighing disappointment on consumer confidence.

AUD/USD saw brief gains on a speech from RBA governor Lowe, who ruled out QE until or unless rates fell to 0.25% from the current 0.75%. While the initial gains of around 20 pips were reversed, commodity currencies gained a positive tone later in the day due to improved trade sentiment, CAD outperforming AUD.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US advance Oct trade deficit fell to $66.5bn from $70.5bn vs $71.0bn exp.

- US Nov consumer confidence fell to 125.5 from 126.1 vs 127.0 exp.

- US Oct new home sales -0.7% to 733k vs 705k exp.

- VIX index: 11.54 (-2.78%)

- Gold Spot: $1,461.78/oz (+0.03%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $64.27 (+$0.62)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $58.22 ($-0.19)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 181.10 (+0.29%)

- 10y UST: 1.741% (-1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,121.68 (+0.20%); S&P: 3,140.52 (+0.22%); Nasdaq: 8,647.93 (+0.18%)

Data/Events Ahead:

A bunch of U.S. data is scheduled for release as Thursday is the Thanksgiving holiday - including GDP, jobless claims, durable goods, personal income/spending. We expect a 0.3% decline in Oct durable goods orders with a marginal 0.1% increase ex transport. The preliminary (second) estimate of Q3 GDP is due, and we expect an unrevised 1.9% pace. We also expect a 0.2% increase in Oct's core PCE price index, a 0.3% rise in Oct personal income, and a 0.2% rise in Oct personal spending.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were mixed on Tuesday as dollar continued to strengthen following Fed's Powel optimistic tone on the U.S. economy but trade optimism also persisted. PHP was the biggest loser down 0.26% against the dollar. MYR was down 0.12% as well against the greenback. INR was the biggest winner on the other hand, up 0.33% against the dollar amid gains in domestic equities after the ArcellorMittal's takeover of a steel mill. CNH (+0.24%), THB (+0.07%) and SGD (+0.05%) also remained in gains.

USD/CNH traded mixed on Tuesday, rising to 7.0400+ levels earlier but dropping quickly and sharply to 7.0091 lows in the NY session. However, pair remains within the 7.0000-7.1000 range for now. We see this pattern continuing. Onshore spot USD/CNY similarly rose to intraday highs of 7.0420 in the afternoon before a plunge back to 7.0300-levels into the close - not as deep as the offshore yuan. If trade hope continues to support, USD/CNY may return to trade at 7.0000 level. 1Y NDF printed lows of 7.0874 in Tuesday's NY session and traded horizontally around 7.0925 subsequently.

USD/SGD printed 5-week highs of 1.3667 in late Asian/early European hours on Tuesday but pared all of these gains and was seen back at sub-1.3650 levels in the NY hours. Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September. Following the break above the 1.3664 resistance, we will turn our attention to the 1.3675 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs touched highs of 14161 early in the NY session but pared the gains and was seen back at 14130-levels into NY close. USD/IDR onshore spot remained below 14090 mostly on Tuesday after hitting 14100+ levels last week. The improved optimism around the U.S./China phase 1 trade deal is helping to revive sentiments, but we believe the pair is still fragile amid trade risks and a widening budget deficit at home. Support at 14050 not at risk and upside pressures are likely to return. We continue to see a risk of another move towards 14110 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that.

USD/INR 1M NDFs traded with a steady downside bias on Tuesday, defying market pressures, and was seen at 71.600 lows in NY. USD/INR onshore spot gapped slightly lower to open at 71.680 on Tuesday from previous close of 71.725 and traded to fresh 2.5-week lows of 71.475 in the afternoon. Optimism around the labor reform is still mixed, but stronger chances could boost the rupee. The U.S./China trade talks are also still ongoing, and Q3 2019 GDP growth data will be released at the end of the week - which is likely to show a further slowdown. Break below the 71.545 support is still looking fragile, and the 71 handle should still hold amid global trade uncertainties and domestic weakness.

Data/Events Highlights:

Singapore's October industrial production beat market expectations and rose to 4.0% y/y from a revised 0.7% y/y in September.

Data/Events Ahead:

No key data is reported in Asia on Wednesday.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Construction Work Done (Q3) 4cast: -1.5% q/q [Mkt: -1, Prev: -3.8]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: GDP Annualized (3Q S) 4cast: 1.9% q/q ann [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.9]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 23) [Mkt: 221, Prev: 227]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Core PCE Price Index (3Q S) 4cast: 2.2% q/q ann [Mkt: 2.2, Prev: 2.2]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Durable Ex Transportation (Oct P) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: -0.4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Durable Goods Orders (Oct P) 4cast: -0.3% m/m [Mkt: -0.8, Prev: -1.2]

14:45 GMT / 22:45 SGT - US: Chicago PMI (Nov) [Mkt: 47.1, Prev: 43.2]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Pending Home Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -0.2, Prev: 1.5]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Personal spending (Oct) 4cast: 0.2% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Personal income (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Core PCE Price Index (Oct) 4cast: 0.2% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) [Mkt: -10.5, Prev: 7.1]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: -7.1% y/y [Mkt: -4.3, Prev: 9.1]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

18:00 GMT / 02:00 SGT - US: 7 year auction

19:00 GMT / 03:00 SGT - US: Fed Beige Book


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:47 (GMT) 24 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 25 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded with an upside bias on Friday in the NY session amid softening stance from President Trump who said that a deal with China is 'potentially very close'. He also indicated that he may not sign the HK bill.

With US Markit PMIs coming in above expectations, the positive USD tone was extended in North American trade, EUR/USD down to near 1.1020 and GBP/USD near 1.2820. EUR/GBP touched above .86 before correcting.

GBP and the EUR both weakened in the European morning on the back of weaker than expected PMI data. The UK data showed much more severe weakness, with all the indices below 50 and the services index showing its weakest level since 2009 (August 2016 after the referendum excluded). The weakness in the Eurozone indices relative to expectations was also mainly in services, but the level remained above 50, as did the composite.

Weaker European PMIs saw the JPY on the front foot but USD/JPY losses were reversed in North America, some Trump optimism over a US-China trade deal also supportive ahead of the Markit PMIs.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Nov Markit manufacturing PMI increased to 52.2 from 51.3 vs 51.4 exp, services increased to 51.6 from 50.6 vs 51.0 exp.

- US Nov Final Michigan CSI 96.8 vs 95.7 prelim and exp.

- In the Eurozone, the PMI Composite Output Index fell slightly to 50.3 in November from 50.6 in October. This was due to a fall in Services PMI to a 10-month low of 51.5 (52.2 in October) which more than offset the slight rise in the Manufacturing Output to 47.1 (46.6 in October).

- UK flash composite reading was weaker than expected and clearly so, slumping 1.5 points (the largest drop in over a year) to 48.5 in the November.

- VIX index: 12.34 (-6.02%)

- Gold Spot: $1,460.04/oz (-0.11%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $63.47 (+$0.08)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.90 (+$0.13)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.37 (-0.20%)

- 10y UST: 1.771% (0bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,875.62 (+0.39%); S&P: 3,110.29 (+0.22%); Nasdaq: 8,519.89 (+0.16%)

Data/Events Ahead:

No tier 1 data is reported in advanced economies on Monday.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks in Providence, Rhode Island, after an appearance with Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren in Hartford, Connecticut.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Most Asian currencies were on the backfoot in the week as risk aversion rose with doubts over the timing of the U.S./China phase 1 trade deal. President Trump's disinterest in rolling back tariffs, as well as the U.S. Senate passage of HK bill also underpinned. KRW (-1.03%) was the biggest loser against the USD as a result. PBoC announced a 5bps cut to its loan prime rate, and Chinese yuan also plunged lower with CNH down 0.53% and CNY down 0.43%. MYR (-0.44%) and PHP (-0.31%) followed, and IDR was down 0.19% despite BI on Hold as RRR cuts were announced. India's GDP will be on close watch this week given expectations of a further slowdown.

USD/CNH traded around 7.0400 in the new week Asian morning, only slightly lower from Friday night's peak of 7.0484 despite President Trump's optimism over the trade deal. Markets continue to remain cautious of the U.S.-China trade talk given the mixed picture seen so far. Pair may re-eye 7.0535. If broken, will turn our attention to the 7.1000 big figure. Onshore spot USD/CNY traded with an upside bias on over concerns on the trade deal, and closed at 7.0405. We see a range of 7.0000-7.1000 for now for USD/CNY. 1Y NDFs peaked at 7.1200 highs in Friday's NY session but was seen down to 7.1100 in early Asian hours this morning.

USD/SGD saw a bullish undertone on Friday and was seen inching up to fresh over 1-month highs of 1.3648 in the NY session. Only slight softening was seen in the pair to 1.3640-levels this morning despite a softer stance from President Trump on trade deal and the HK bill. Given the uncertainty, we expect pair to consolidate and remain range bound between 1.3596 and 1.3647. Focus for the week ahead will be on Singapore's October CPI and industrial production. Singapore's CPI will be released on Monday and we expect inflation to remain unchanged and subdued at 0.5% y/y in October.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs remained range-bound on Friday to trade around 14150 in the NY session. Onshore spot traded on either side of the key 14100 following BI's hold on Thursday but a 50bps cut in RRR. Possible BI presence in the markets continues to cap gains above 14100. Uncertainties in the U.S.-China trade deal may still keep the focus on the upside, and concerns regarding Indonesia's widening budget deficit also continued to weigh on the rupiah. We continue to see risk of a firmer break of the 14110 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that.

USD/INR 1M NDFs remained mostly below the 72 handle on Friday in the NY session but a dip to 71.850 was also reversed. Onshore spot traded choppily on Friday amid risk aversion from the US/China trade deal confusion which saw pair rise to 71.8725 but later plummeted towards 71.700 amid hopes of disinvestments improving the fiscal and reform outlook. The 71.545 support is now coming back in view, although the 71 handle should still hold.

Data/Events Highlights:

No tier 1 data was reported in emerging Asia on Friday.

Data/Events Ahead:

Singapore's October CPI is likely to remain steady.

Taiwan's October industrial production is also due.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

05:00 GMT / 13:00 SGT - SG: CPI (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% y/y [Mkt: 0.5, Prev: 0.5]

08:00 GMT / 16:00 SGT - TW: Industrial Output (Oct) % y/y [Prev: -0.75]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: Wholesale Sales (Sep) % m/m [Prev: -1.2]

21:45 GMT / 05:45 SGT - NZ: Retail Sales Ex Inflation (Q3) % [Prev: 0.2]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

18:00 GMT / 02:00 SGT - US: 2 year auction


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:54 (GMT) 21 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 22 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

North America saw USD/JPY fairly stable around 108.60, but the USD tone improved against the EUR, and more so GBP, Cable slipping from a high of 1.2969 to touch below 1.29. Labour released a radical manifesto, but what really matters is how opinion polls respond to it. EUR/USD's 1.1050 low followed a report that the US was considering a new trade investigation against the EU as the auto tariff window closes, but reaction was brief and small. USD/CAD fell from above 1.33 on comments from BoC Governor Poloz that "monetary conditions are about right" correcting the dovish market impression after the Wilkins comments earlier in the week, but failed to sustain losses below 1.3275.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Nov Philly Fed manufacturing rose to 10.4 from 5.6 vs 6.0 exp.

- US initial claims unchanged at 227k vs 218k exp.

- US Oct existing home sales +1.9% to 5.46m vs 5.49m exp.

- Japan October inflation showed muted impact from the sales tax hike. Headline inflation was only at 0.2% y/y in October, slightly lower than market expectations. Core inflation was firmer at 0.4% y/y in October.

- VIX index: 13.13 (+2.74%)

- Gold Spot: $1,464.36/oz (+0.00%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $63.97 (+$1.57)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $58.38 ($-0.20)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.73 (+0.99%)

- 10y UST: 1.772% (+3bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,766.29 (-0.20%); S&P: 3,103.54 (-0.16%); Nasdaq: 8,506.21 (-0.24%)

Data/Events Ahead:

There will be more focus on the Eurozone PMIs, with forecasters generally taking a slightly more positive tack on European economic prospects going forward. We also see some improvement in the Eurozone picture, and expect PMIs to be a touch stronger than market expectations, which also call for a small increase in the composite Eurozone PMI. However, with the market anticipating some improvement, the risks for EUR/USD are probably evenly balanced.

US PMIs tend to be seen as secondary to the ISM data out next week. Still, they have gained more attention of late, so the modest increase in both the services and manufacturing PMI anticipated by the market may be enough to stave off any significant USD declines as long as expectations of a positive trade outcome are broadly retained.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Most Asian currencies were on the defensive on Thursday after timing of the U.S./China phase 1 trade deal came in question and President Trump threatened to increase tariffs if the deal was not signed. KRW (-0.68%) was the biggest loser again, partly also underpinned by a decline in South Korea's exports and imports for the first 20 days of November. Other currencies saw only modest declines, with MYR (-0.1%). Bank Indonesia decided to keep rates unchanged after 100bps of rate cuts so far, but announced a 50bps cut in RRR to boost liquidity and support growth. IDR recouped some early losses and was overall flat. INR was flat as higher risk aversion was offset by government's divestment plans supporting fiscal outlook.

USD/CNH was quite steady during the overnight session on Wednesday, and was consolidative around 7.0300. Markets continue to remain cautious of the U.S.-China trade talk given the mixed picture seen so far. Pair may re-eye 7.0535. If broken, will turn our attention to the 7.1000 big figure. The onshore spot traded with a downside bias on Wednesday, and was last at 7.0289. We expect pair to eye the 7.0500 big figure. 1Y NDFs consolidated between 7.1000-7.1100 after coming off from a peak of 7.1240.

USD/SGD regained a bid tone overnight, rising to a 1-week high of 1.3634 during early Asian hours. Singapore's Q3 final GDP print was revised higher to 0.5% y/y from 0.1% y/y previously. Singapore had also made revision to its annual growth forecast to between 0.5% and 1.0% on Thursday from 0.0% and 1.0% previously. Given the rise in risk-off sentiments, we expect pair to eye the 1.3636 resistance. If broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3647 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs were quite steady at around 14130 during the overnight session. The onshore spot saw a steady upside bias on Thursday to break above 14100 and printed fresh 1-month highs of 14118 in the afternoon ahead of BI decision. The pair embarked on a downtrend after the BI announcement to pause on key rates despite an RRR cut, and was last at 14090. Uncertainties in the U.S.-China trade deal may still keep the focus on the upside, and concerns regarding Indonesia's widening budget deficit also continued to weigh on the rupiah. We now see risk of a firmer break of the 14115 resistance, but expect BI to limit gains above that.

USD/INR 1M NDFs were nearly flat overnight. The onshore spot edged lower to 71.7500 despite a fresh bout of risk aversion after the timeline for the phase 1 US/China trade deal remained in doldrums. We believe a move back towards 72 for the pair still remains inevitable amid a fragile domestic economy and volatile global conditions.

Data/Events Highlights:

Bank Indonesia (BI) took a breather after four back-to-back rate cuts since July to pause at the November 21 meeting, keeping the 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 5.00%. However, the reserve ratio (RRR) for banks was cut by 50bps effective January 2, 2020 - bringing the RRR to 5.5% for commercial banks and 4% for sharia banks.

Thailand's customs exports extended decline, down by 4.54% y/y in October, and imports saw steeper contraction of 7.57% y/y in October. That saw trade surplus narrowed to USD507mn.

Data/Events Ahead:
Scarce data calendar in Asia with only Taiwan's October unemployment rate due.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - JP: Composite PMI (Nov P) [Prev: 49.8]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - JP: Services PMI (Nov P) [Prev: 49.7]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - JP: Jibun Bank PMI Mfg (Nov P) [Prev: 48.4]

05:30 GMT / 13:30 SGT - JP: Tokyo Department Store (Oct) [Prev: 20.7]

08:00 GMT / 16:00 SGT - TW: Unemployment (Oct) [Mkt: 3.74, Prev: 3.74]

09:00 GMT / 17:00 SGT - EU: Manufacturing PMI (Nov P) [Mkt: 46.4, Prev: 45.9]

09:00 GMT / 17:00 SGT - EU: Composite PMI (Nov P) [Mkt: 50.9, Prev: 50.6]

09:00 GMT / 17:00 SGT - EU: Services PMI (Nov P) [Mkt: 52.4, Prev: 52.2]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: CIPS / Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov Prelim) 4cast: 48.5 [Mkt: 48.8, Prev: 49.6]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: CIPS / Markit Services PMI (Nov Prelim) 4cast: 50 [Mkt: 50.1, Prev: 50]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: Retail Sales (ex Auto) (Sep) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: -0.3, Prev: -0.2]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: Retail Sales (Sep) 4cast: 0% m/m [Mkt: -0.1, Prev: -0.1]

14:45 GMT / 22:45 SGT - US: Markit Services PMI (Nov P) 4cast: 51.5 [Mkt: 51.2, Prev: 51]

14:45 GMT / 22:45 SGT - US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov P) 4cast: 51 [Mkt: 51.5, Prev: 51.3]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Univ of Mich Sentiment (Nov F) [Mkt: 95.7, Prev: 95.7]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

08:00 GMT / 16:00 SGT - EU: ECB President Lagarde speaks in Frankfurt

09:20 GMT / 17:20 SGT - EU: ECB's Hernandez de Cos speaks in Mexico


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 00:08 (GMT) 20 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 20 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

USD/JPY moved up as high as 108.85 but later moved back to its lows below 108.50. Early Equity strength may have been helped by a Reuters story indicating that time had run out for Trump to impose tariffs on imports of foreign made cars, but equities later turned lower in response to weak earnings reports from some US retailers, A Bloomberg report that the US and China were using a failed May deal as a baseline fir tariff rollback provided only a brief lift, Trump threatening higher tariffs on China soon after not helping.

AUD/USD was the strongest currency in the European morning, reversing weakness seen in Asia on the back of generally positive risk appetite, and gains were sustained even as equities lost momentum. AUD/CAD moved above .9050, CAD already slipping with oil before taking a hit as BoC's Wilkins said there was room for maneuver on policy, though this was in the context of potential global-led weakness which Canada was seen in a good position to weather. Wilkins' comments sent USD/CAD above 1.3250.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct housing starts +3.8% to 1314k vs 1320k exp, permits +5.0% to 1461k vs 1385k exp.

- VIX index: 12.86 (+3.21%)

- Gold Spot: $1,474.18/oz (+0.12%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $60.91 ($-1.53)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $55.23 (+$0.02)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 177.16 (-1.13%)

- 10y UST: 1.767% (-2bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,934.02 (-0.36%); S&P: 3,120.18 (-0.06%); Nasdaq: 8,570.66 (+0.24%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Canadian CPI will be due on Wednesday but should not have a major CAD impact as inflation is around where the BoC would like it to be. Moreover, we are expecting a print of 1.9% y/y, in line with market estimates.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were mostly in the red on Tuesday amid doubt on the US/China trade deal spurring risk aversion as Chinese authorities were reportedly unhappy with President Trump not rolling back tariffs. The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a bill to support the Hong Kong protestors and stirred further risk aversion at the beginning of Wednesday's Asian session. PHP (-0.38%) and KRW (-0.26%) were the biggest losers - the former despite a wider October balance of payments. USD/INR touched 72 again in the morning but was flat at last look, while IDR and MYR were in mild losses. Only THB was in gains - up 0.2% against the USD - as it remained near 6-year highs.

USD/CNH held relatively steady around 7.0276 overnight, before edging further higher to 7.0338 at the beginning of Wednesday's Asian session after the U.S. Senate's unanimous decision to pass a bill in support for the Hong Kong protestors. Wednesday's PBoC's loan prime rate decision will be closely watched as markets are split between a cut and pause for the 1-year loan prime rate. Given the recent PBoC's easing bias and escalation of the Hong Kong protests, pair may edge higher towards the 7.0493 resistance next. 1Y NDFs rose to 7.1080 at the beginning of Wednesday's Asian session.
USD/SGD rose to 1.3617 at the beginning of Wednesday's Asian session, after pair held steady around the 1.3610 level overnight. Risk-off sentiments returned following reports of China's pessimism over the trade deal after Trump's denial of a tariffs rollback earlier this month, along with a unanimous decision by the U.S. Senate to pass a bill in support for the Hong Kong protestors. Pair may eye the 1.3636 resistance.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs rebounded from 14113 to 14142 at the beginning of Wednesday's Asian session. USD/IDR onshore spot was bid up on Tuesday, rising to 14093 highs amid some pessimism from Chinese authorities on a potential phase 1 trade deal. Concerns regarding Indonesia's widening budget deficit also weighed on the rupiah, and early highs were tested several times in the day but no break was seen until last look, as BI possibly stalled the pair. Upside pressures are likely to test 14100 key level again in the absence of any positive trade news and aim at 14115 resistance.

USD/INR 1M NDFs saw an initial dip to 71.850 earlier on Tuesday but traded with a bid tone later to rise towards 72.070. USD/INR onshore spot gapped higher to open at 71.910 on Tuesday from previous close of 71.8425 as risk sentiment deteriorated following a CNBC report quoting Chinese authorities' pessimism over a trade deal with the US. Pair rose to the 72 handle in early trading but could not break convincingly above it and reversed back to 71.705 at the end of Tuesday's session. We believe a move back towards 72 for the pair remains inevitable amid a fragile domestic economy and volatile global conditions.

Data/Events Highlights:

Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) October's composite interest rate increased to 1.04% to 1.02% in September.

Data/Events Ahead:
Malaysia's CPI will be released on Wednesday, along with PBoC's November loan prime rate. We expect Malaysia's headline inflation to come in at 1.0% y/y in October. Food inflation softening will likely underpin and non-food inflation will continue to remain subdued. Next, we expect the PBoC to keep its loan prime rate unchanged at 4.20%, despite October's data suggesting further sluggish economic momentum in China.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:30 GMT / 07:30 SGT - AU: Westpac-MI Leading Index (Oct) [Prev: -0.08]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7.5% y/y [Mkt: -7.5, Prev: -5.2]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -15% y/y [Mkt: -15.2, Prev: -1.5]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Trade Balance (nsa) (Oct) 4cast: 155.4JPY bn [Mkt: 229.3, Prev: -123]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Trade Balance (sa) (Oct) [Mkt: 248.1, Prev: -97.2]

00:00 GMT / 08:00 SGT - AU: Internet Skilled Vacancies (Oct) [Prev: -0.7]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (Nov) 4cast: 4.2% [Mkt: 4.2, Prev: 4.2]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: CPI (Oct) 4cast: 1% y/y [Mkt: 1, Prev: 1.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: CPI (Oct) 4cast: 0.4% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: CPI (Oct) 4cast: 1.9% y/y [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.9]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Lane speaks in Milan

19:00 GMT / 03:00 SGT - US: FOMC minutes from October 30


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 17 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 18 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index extended the losses further on Friday amid a slide in US manufacturing indicators, even as some of the US-China trade deal optimism offset.

Supported by positive comments on US-China trade in the Asian session USD/JPY moved steadily higher, highs above 108.80. AUD/USD was also supported, moving above .68 though USD/CAD struggled to find direction. EUR/CHF continued its rebound from Thursday, getting close to 1.0950.

In the UK the Brexit Party was reported to stand down 43 candidates in non-Tory seats, further improving the market perception that Johnson might win a majority at the election. GBP/USD bounced above 1.29. EUR/GBP saw a low of .8548 but EUR/USD moved steadily higher from the mid-European morning, moving above 1.1050.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct retail sales +0.3% vs 0.2% exp, ex autos +0.2% vs 0.4% exp.

- US Nov Empire State manufacturing fell to 2.9 from 4.0 vs 6.0 exp.

- US Oct industrial production -0.8% vs -0.4% exp, manufacturing -0.6% vs -0.7% exp, manufacturing ex autos -0.1%.

- European data was thin on the ground, Oct Eurozone CPI confirmed at 1.2% and Sep's trade balance up to 18.7bn from 14.7bn, higher than expected.

- VIX index: 12.05 (-7.66%)

- Gold Spot: $1,468.07/oz (-0.02%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $63.25 ($-0.05)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.69 ($-0.03)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 181.00 (+0.51%)

- 10y UST: 1.831% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,004.89 (+0.80%); S&P: 3,120.46 (+0.77%); Nasdaq: 8,540.83 (+0.73%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Monday's data sees Nov's NAHB homebuilders' index and Sep Tics capital flows in the US.

UK Rightmove house price data may show another negative reading.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

The week saw most Asian currencies weakened against the dollar. Cautious sentiment regarding the progress in the phase one US/China deal and worries over China's slowing economy continue to keep risk appetite in check. South Korean Won was seen leading losses, down by 0.80% against the dollar in the week. That was followed by INR (-0.7%), IDR (-0.45%), MYR (-0.43%), TWD (-0.40%), CNH (-0.29%), CNY (-0.17%) and SGD (-0.11%). Philippines peso was in mild losses of 0.30% against the greenback, and the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at its meeting in November. Thai baht was an outperformer, up by 0.54% against dollar.

USD/CNH managed to stay just above the 7 handle on Friday in the NY hours even as the USD was weaker. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot had meanwhile seen a dip below the 7 handle to 6.9982 on Friday but later rose to 7.0164 highs. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs saw a big drop earlier on Friday from near-7.1000 levels and remained below 7.0850 this morning.

USD/SGD tested a break above 1.3620 a few times on Friday but returned lower again, sliding to lows of 1.3600 in NY. Risk of break below 1.3600 handle is seen, but expect losses to be capped at 1.3558 support. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair to the 1.3647 resistance.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs dipped towards 14100 handle on Friday from 14150+ levels at the start of Friday's Asian session. Onshore spot gapped lower to open at 14055 on Friday from previous close of 14089, some downside pressures seen due to the surprise trade surplus in October trade data, but pair rose to 14070+ later. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now. Trade deal uncertainty however remains, and upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended the downside further on Friday, slipping to sub-71.900 levels from an open near 72.200 on Friday morning. Onshore spot retreated back below the 72 handle into the close on Thursday and opened at 71.800 on Friday. Pair remained close to the 71.800-levels on Friday. Authorities are under pressures to undertake economic reforms and support the dwindling economy, while global trade volatility also continues to weigh. The break below the 72 handle may still be fragile, and expect downside pressures to remain limited.

Data/Events Highlights:

Malaysia's Q3 GDP growth softened to a 13-quarter low of 4.4% y/y from 4.9% y/y in Q2 as the acceleration in domestic demand was unable to offset external pressures.

Indonesia's October exports continued to decline - down by 6.13% y/y - for a 12th consecutive month. Imports however weakened more sharply - down 16.39% y/y in October - reflecting weak domestic demand. But this helped trade balance to return to a small surplus of $161mn.

India's October exports decline was softer than market expectations at -1.1% y/y while imports were weaker at -16.3% y/y, resulting in a narrow trade deficit of USD 11.01bn.

Data/Events Ahead:

Singapore's October NODX and electronics exports will be released on Monday, and the final print of Q3 GDP is also due anytime from today through next Monday.

Thailand's Q3 GDP is also on tap today.

HK police have sealed off a university after an all-night stand-off with protestors, and there are rising fears of a crackdown.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

18-25 November: SG: GDP (Q3 F) 4cast: 0.3% y/y [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.1]

00:01 GMT / 08:01 SGT - UK: Rightmove House Price Index (Nov) % m/m [Prev: 0.6]

00:01 GMT / 08:01 SGT - UK: Rightmove House Price Index (Nov) % y/y [Prev: -0.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - SG: NODX - Electronics (Oct) 4cast: -25% y/y [Prev: -24.8]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - SG: NODX (Oct) 4cast: -12% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -8.1]

02:30 GMT / 10:30 SGT - TH: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 2.9% y/y [Mkt: 2.7, Prev: 2.3]

05:30 GMT / 13:30 SGT - JP: Tokyo Department Store (Oct) % y/y [Prev: 20.7]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: NAHB Builders survey (Nov) [Mkt: 71, Prev: 71]

21:00 GMT / 05:00 SGT - US: Net Long-term TICS Flows (Sep) USD bn [Prev: -41.1]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: Fed's Mester speaks in Maryland


CurrenciesCountriesMarket Bulletins

Latest Currency Analysis

Available to subscribers only
Order Now