20 April 2017
Asia FX and News -
+ RTS: Japan's March exports rose at the fastest pace in over 2 years led by car parts and steel.
+ NZ CPI hit the 2% target mid-point in Q1 after a year of concerted effort to lift inflation.
+ The 11 remaining nations in the TPP talks will discuss moving forward with the deal at the APEC meeting in May - Japanese FinMin Aso.
+ NZD was the big winner in Asia, NZD/USD up around 50 pips and AUD/NZD briefly down to sub 1.0640. The cross pulled AUD/USD down to .7490 but failed to threaten .7480 stops. Elsewhere it was all very narrow with USD/JPY and EUR/USD holding tight ranges, the former generally just below 109, the latter holding over 1.07. GBP was modestly underpinned but no threat to the .8333 level on EUR/GBP (1.20 in GBP/EUR terms).
Nikkei and JGBs -
+ N225 closed -0.01% at 18,430.49 10yr JGBs yield 0.01%.
European FX and News -
+ EUR/USD has pushed higher through the European morning as confidence grows that Macron will be in the French election run-off and is likely to win against either Le Pen or Fillon, with Melenchon drifting out in the polls and the betting. We have seen a high at 1.0777, while most of the crosses are also higher.
+ EUR/JPY has come to within a whisker of 117.50 to help USD/JPY recover the 1.09 handle after an early morning dip down to 108.70.
+ EUR/GBP saw a high at .8395 with Cable gains relatively subdued, 1.2844 the high there. There has been no data of note in Europe.
+ Even EUR/CHF has managed a move over 1.07 to 1.0715, no obvious sign of the SNB and we suspect sellers never too far away.
+ NZD spent the session giving back the gains made on the CPI data, NZD/USD still on the .70 handle but AUD/NZD back over 1.0700 with AUD/USD back over .7500. USD/CAD remains underpinned and is close to the 1.3490 session highs as we approach the N.American open despite a modest rally in crude.
+ All very quiet in Scandinavia, EUR/SEK holding over 9.60, the NOK still lagging slightly after the late tumble in crude yesterday.
Bonds and Equities -
+ Bund yields continue to edge up, DE10s towards 0.25%. Spain's auctions went well enough after cheapening through the sales, France with no problems with its short end sales as spreads continue to tighten ahead of the election. Eurozone stocks are generally in the green, the FTSE lagging again at -0.2%.
06:00 GMT - DE: PPI (Mar) % m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: 0.2)
06:00 GMT - DE: PPI (Mar) % y/y (Mkt: 3.2 Prev: 3.1)
06:00 GMT - NO: C2 Credit Growth Indicator (20th-30th) (Mar) % y/y (Prev: 5.1)
06:30 GMT - NL: Unemployment (sa) (Mar) % (Prev: 5.3)
10:00 GMT - UK: CBI Industrial Trends (20th-25th) (Apr) % bal (Prev: 8)
Still To Be Released -
12:30 GMT - US: Initial Claims (42840) k (Mkt: 240 Prev: 234)
12:30 GMT - US: Philadelphia Fed Survey (Apr) (Mkt: 26 Prev: 32.8)
14:00 GMT - US: Leading Indicator (Mar) % m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: 0.6)
Events & Auctions:
n/a GMT - EU: EU's Mogherini Speaks in New Dehli
n/a GMT - SE: Riksbank's Ingves & Jansson
n/a GMT - WLD: IMF and World Bank Hold Spring Meeting in Washington (23rd)
15:00 GMT - DE: Finance Minister Schauble Speaks in Washington
17:00 GMT - DE: Bundesbank's Dombret Speaks in New York