Forex - Psychology/Strategy for major markets today


 10:11 (GMT) 12 Jul

  [Forex Strategy]

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Psychology/Strategy for major markets today (0101-MTSQ-C01)

EUR/USD - Powell's dovish testimony suggests 1.12 now a floor. Better EZ production data also supports. Scope to 1.13, but need more news for a break beyond here.

USD/JPY - 109 ceiling reinforced by Powell's testimony, but positive equity response limits upside for JPY, so it will likely be hard for the pair to break below 107.50 near term.

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD - EUR/GBP in its tenth consecutive week of gains, which suggests positioning may be starting to get extended. However, EUR/GBP upside still favoured as long as USD stays soft.

DJIA and S&P - Equities assuming the anticipated Fed easing will be able to sustain the expansion without igniting inflation. 3018 on S&P and 27120 on DJIA may be tough hurdles.

T.Bond - CPI data somewhat checks US2s at 1.8% ahead of 1.75%, but still some further corrective steepening risks to long end.


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