Forex - Asia Highlights - Tuesday, 19 Nov 2019


 05:40 (GMT) 19 Nov

  [Forex Highlights]

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Asia Highlights - Tuesday, 19 Nov 2019 (0101-PSZV-C01)

US Overview

The USD ended weaker with early optimism on trade disrupted by a source report that China was pessimistic, Trump also hinting he would like a weaker USD after meeting with Fed's Powell. USD yields slipped on the source story, but equities were resilient.

US highlights:

- US Nov NAHB homebuilders' index fell to 70 from 71 vs 71 exp.
- CNBC tweet quoted China government source pessimistic about trade deal with US.
- Trump tweeted that he discussed everything, including USD strength, in meeting with Fed's Powell.

Currencies:

While the European morning saw USD/JPY rise above 109 on a risk-positive tone, Bloomberg having reported "constructive discussions" between the US and China, a sharp fall followed after a tweet from CNBC China, touching 108.50. The tweet reported a government source as saying that the mood in Beijing about the trade deal is pessimistic. China is apparently troubled after Trump said there would be no tariff rollback. (China thought both had agreed in principle.)
The USD subsequently stayed generally soft, perhaps in part because Trump in tweeting that he had a cordial meeting with Fed's Powell, said USD strength was discussed, implying Trump would like to see it weaker. EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.090.
GBP advanced in the European morning with more opinion polls indicating a likely Conservative majority. GBP/USD tested 1.29 while EUR/GBP dropped to new post-May lows at .8520 before correcting as EUR/USD picked up.

EUR/CHF hit its highest level for a week, with only a modest correction as trade worries resumed. The commodity currencies were initially hit by the CNBC story but erased their losses as equities showed resilience and the USD tone soured, keeping tight daily ranges.
There was little data of any note. The UK CBI director general, said confidence in the UK was faltering and that the UK was facing extreme ideology on both the left and the right.

Asia FX and News:

-EU Trade Boss Tells Boris Johnson He Will Get 'Bare Bones' Brexit Trade Deal or None At All ~ Sun
-RBNZ Hawkesby Said RBNZ Willing to Provide More Stimulus If Required
-Kuroda: BoJ Has No Preconceptions about Policy Now
-Trump Said He 'Protested' to Powell about U.S. Interest Rates
-AUD weighed by RBA minutes, which showed that the decision to pause in its Nov meeting was not without serious considerations for a cut, which wasn't what market had expected. The minutes revealed concerns of negative implications rapid rate cuts might have on household confidence and savers. AUD/USD fell below 0.68 but found some support around 0.6785. NZD/USD tracked the losses in AUD/USD, traded below 0.64. BoJ Kuroda reiterated further easing will not be held back if risks were to rise but showed few signs of urgency. The neutral comments did not have any clear impact on the yen, which was slightly firmer in Asia perhaps reflecting a gradually more cautious tone towards trade deal. USD/JPY unable to move into the green in Asia as Trump confirmed that he protested to Powell about US rates and USD in the US morning.

Data still to be released:

21:00 GMT - US: Net Long-term TICS Flows (Sep) USD bn (Prev: -41.1)

09:00 GMT - EU: Current Account (sa) (Sep) EUR bn (Prev: 26.6)

09:00 GMT - IT: Industrial Sales (Sep) % m/m (Prev: -0.3)

09:00 GMT - IT: Current Account Balance (Sep) EUR mn (Prev: 6037)

09:00 GMT - IT: Industrial Orders (Sep) % m/m (Prev: 1.1)

09:00 GMT - IT: Industrial Sales (Sep) % y/y (Prev: -2.2)

09:00 GMT - IT: Industrial Orders (Sep) % y/y (Prev: -10)

10:00 GMT - EU: Construction Output (Sep) % m/m (Prev: -0.5)

10:00 GMT - EU: Construction Output (Sep) % y/y (Prev: 1.2)

13:30 GMT - CA: Manufacturing sales (Sep) 4cast: -1.2% m/m (Mkt: -0.5 Prev: 0.8)

13:30 GMT - US: Housing Starts (Oct) 4cast: 1320k (Mkt: 1320 Prev: 1256)

13:30 GMT - US: Building Permits (Oct) 4cast: 1380k (Mkt: 1380 Prev: 1391)

23:30 GMT - AU: Westpac-MI Leading Index (Oct) % m/m (Prev: -0.08)

23:50 GMT - JP: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7.5% y/y (Mkt: -7.5 Prev: -5.2)

23:50 GMT - JP: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -15% y/y (Mkt: -15.2 Prev: -1.5)

23:50 GMT - JP: Trade Balance (nsa) (Oct) 4cast: 155.4JPY bn (Mkt: 229.3 Prev: -123)

23:50 GMT - JP: Trade Balance (sa) (Oct) JPY bn (Mkt: 248.1 Prev: -97.2)

Events

22:05 GMT - AU: RBA's Kent takes part in Sydney panel

00:30 GMT - AU: RBA Minutes of November Policy Meeting

14:00 GMT - US: Fed's Williams speaks at capital markets conference

17:20 GMT - CA: BoC's Wilkins speaks in Montreal


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