15 February 2017
Asia FX and News -
+ Reuters: Japan's SoftBank has agreed to buy Fortress Investment Group LLC for around USD3.3bn in cash.
+ It's important to understand where the currency was in the past, not just what the situation is now - FinMin Aso.
+ 1Q expectations for the direction of inflation are the highest since 3Q 2006, according to data on RBNZ website.
+ Germany, France and Italy have called on Brussels to grant them a right of veto over Chinese high-tech takeovers.
+ A very tight Asia session ahead of the Yellen Part II and the US inflation data before that, put in the spotlight by the Fed Chair on Tuesday. AUD/USD did manage to regain ascendancy among the main commodity trip with AUD/NZD taking another look over 1.07 and AUD/CAD back above 1.00. EUR/USD traded within a 25pt range, unable to break 1.0555 support.
Nikkei and JGBs -
+ N225 closed +1.03% at 19437.98. 10yr JGBs yield 0.085%
European FX and News -
+ For the second straight day GBP was the main interest in the European morning as it took another hit from data, on this occasion a miss by average earnings data, the 2.6% rise disappointing expectations of 2.6%. We did see a big fall in the claimant count of 42.4k, but the ONS said this series is currently 'experimental'. Cable saw a low at 1.2415.
+ EUR/USD has been grinding slowly lower, currently a few pips above 1.0540 but struggling for momentum as real money looks to the US inflation data for more clues. We don't expect Yellen to change her testimony if the data is a long way out but it would not be unprecedented.
+ USD/JPY extended the recent high to 114.59 but is struggling for any more. There is good expiry interest today at 114.50 and 115.00, but the biggest is at 114.00.
+ Fairly quiet on AUD, NZD and CAD through the morning, CAD traders looking to EIA oil inventory data later after another big crude build reported by the API last night (9.9mn barrels).
+ The Riksbank left policy unchanged, the message disappointing the hawks while the Bank has also extended its intervention mandate. It sees the SEK firming as the economy picks up but only slowly. EUR/SEK is marginally higher but no threat to the 9.40/9.50 range.
+ EUR/CHF is still chipping away at the SNB's patience with a dip below 1.0640
Bonds and Equities -
+ Quiet trade in bonds but yields still leaning higher at the long end and stretching the post-Yellen moves. Gilts did get some support from the soft earnings data.
+ Equity markets continue higher, generally up 0.3-0.5%.
+ Brazil: Feb FGV Inflation IGP-10 MoM 0.14% m/m (Prev: 0.88 Mkt: 0.25 4CAST: 0.15)
+ UK: The Claimant Count fell sharply by 42.4k in December from -20.5k in November (revised from -10.2k). This compares to market expectations for a 0.5k increase and puts the jobless claims total at 0.745mn (prev: 0.798mn) - representing a 2.1% proportion of the labour force, down from 2.3% in November.
+ Sweden 15-Feb Riksbank - Repo Rate -0.5% (Prev: -0.5 Mkt: -0.5)
+ Spain Jan CPI -0.5% m/m (Prev: -0.5 Mkt: -0.5)
+ Spain Jan HICP 2.9% y/y (Prev: 3 Mkt: 3)
+ Spain Jan HICP -1% m/m (Prev: -0.9 Mkt: -0.9)
+ Spain Jan CPI 3% y/y (Prev: 3 Mkt: 3)
+ Singapore: Retail sales rose a meagre 0.4% y/y in December, while remaining in positive zone for a 4th consecutive month but growth was at its slowest over this period despite Christmas holiday demand. On a seasonally adjusted m/m basis, retail sales declined by 1.9% in December compared to no change in the previous period.
+ Singapore Dec Retail Sales 0.4% y/y (Prev: 0.7R Mkt: 1.4 4CAST: 1.4)
+ Singapore Dec Retail Sales (sa) -1.9% m/m (Prev: 0.0R Mkt: -1.9 4CAST: -2.2)
Still to Be Released -
13:30 GMT - US: CPI (ex Food & Energy) (Jan) 4cast: 0.3% m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: 0.2)
13:30 GMT - US: Empire State Survey (Feb) (Mkt: 6.8 Prev: 6.5)
13:30 GMT - US: Retail Sales (Jan) 4cast: 0% m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0.6)
13:30 GMT - US: Retail Sales (ex Auto) (Jan) 4cast: 0.5% m/m (Mkt: 0.4 Prev: 0.2)
14:15 GMT - US: Capacity utilisation (Jan) 4cast: 75.4% (Mkt: 75.4 Prev: 75.5)
14:15 GMT - US: Industrial production (Jan) 4cast: 0% m/m (Mkt: 0 Prev: 0.8)
15:00 GMT - US: Business inventories (Dec) % m/m (Mkt: 0.4 Prev: 0.7)
15:00 GMT - US: NAHB Builders survey (Feb) (Mkt: 67 Prev: 67)
Events & Auctions:
15:00 GMT - US: Fed's Yellen Speaks in Washington
17:00 GMT - US: Fed's Rosengren Speaks in New York
17:45 GMT - US: Fed's Harker Speaks in Philadelphia
22:00 GMT - AU: RBA's Ellis Speaks
23:00 GMT - NZ: Finance Minister Joyce Speaks