Forex - US North American Summary and Highlights 14 Mar


 20:06 (GMT) 14 Mar

  [Forex Highlights]

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Overview

US North American Summary and Highlights 14 Mar (0100-YDBV-C04)

FX ranges were fairly tight but equities had a weak day as US retail sales data disappointed, combined with political risks in the US and elsewhere. The UST curve flattened.

News highlights

US North American Summary and Highlights 14 Mar (0100-YDBV-C01)

- US Feb PPI +0.2% vs 0.1% exp, ex food and energy +0.2% as exp.

- US Feb retail sales -0.1% vs +0.3% exp, ex auto +0.2% vs 0.4% exp.

- US Jan business inventories +0.6% as exp, sales -0.2%.

- Kudlow accepts position of Director of National Economic Council.

Currencies:

US North American Summary and Highlights 14 Mar (0100-YDBV-C02)

EUR/USD could not hold over 1.2400 and eventually slipped to a low of 1.2347 in the European afternoon. This followed a dovish tone to ECB Pres Draghi's speech on monetary policy. Draghi said EUR strength has been due to 'exogenous factors' and 'cannot be explained solely by the economic expansion ... which might weigh on inflation down the line as it does not fully arise from stronger euro area fundamentals'. He said it's a development they need to monitor closely. The US data had no impact.

USD/JPY did have a brief look at the Asia high around 106.70 early in Europe but fell back to around 106.50 as EUR/JPY felt the drag from Draghi, then further to test 106.0 as Wall Street headed south, where support was found.

GBP found some support on encouraging comments from German Brexit co-ordinator Ptassek who said progress is being made on a Withdrawal Agreement. Weight from the dispute with Russia caused only a temporary dip, but EUR/GBP remains above .8840.

AUD/USD had a brief look over .7900, back down to .7870 but the AUD still the pick of the commodity crop with AUD/NZD around 1.0750, AUD/CAD holding near 1.0200. Crude slipped on a 5mn barrel crude build reported by the EIA, though overall oil inventory was lower.

EUR/CHF remains close to 1.1700 ahead of the SNB policy decision Thursday.

EUR/SEK is a shade lower, Swedish CPI on expectation (if a shade lower than Riksbank projections) but no comment as yet from the Bank. EUR/NOK is little changed, NOK/SEK back below 1.0600.ahead of the Norges Bank policy decision also due Thursday.

Bonds:

US North American Summary and Highlights 14 Mar (0100-YDBV-C03)

In the US, after Japanese long end demand overnight, the dominant trade proved to be fresh flatteners. Retail sales data disappointed but 2yr yields were briefly lifted to fractional new highs by the press higher in bill rates. That with the modest data played to fresh flattening, 2s30s to the Jan tights, even as short end yields trimmed back. Long end rally extends as the move gains momentum and attempts to breakout. 2s +0.4bps @ 2.26%, 5s -1.4bps @ 2.60%, 10s -3.1bps @ 2.81%, 30s -4.5bps @ 3.05%.

Agency Spreads: Freddie/Fannie 5s +0.8/+0.4 bps, 10s -0.2/-0.2 bps.

Swap Spreads: 2s -1.45bps, 5s -0.13bps, 10s -0.44bps.

Equities:

Weak retail sales data, political risks at home and abroad with continued worries over trade all weighed on equities, as consumer staples led broad based losses.

To Be Released -

Data:

21:45 GMT - NZ: GDP (Q4) % y/y (Mkt: 3.1 Prev: 2.7)

21:45 GMT - NZ: GDP (SA) (Q4) % q/q (Mkt: 0.8 Prev: 0.6)

05:30 GMT - NL: Retail Trade (Jan) % y/y (Prev: 1.5)

05:30 GMT - NL: Trade Balance (Jan) bn (Prev: 4.1)

05:30 GMT - NL: Unemployment (sa) (Feb) % (Prev: 4.2)

07:00 GMT - NO: Trade Balance (Feb) NOK bn (Prev: 28.8)

07:45 GMT - FR: CPI (Feb F) % m/m (Mkt: -0.1 Prev: -0.1)

07:45 GMT - FR: CPI (Feb F) % y/y (Mkt: 1.2 Prev: 1.2)

07:45 GMT - FR: HICP (Feb F) % m/m (Mkt: 0 Prev: 0)

07:45 GMT - FR: HICP (Feb F) % y/y (Mkt: 1.3 Prev: 1.3)

08:15 GMT - CH: Producer & Import prices (Feb) % m/m (Prev: 0.3)

08:15 GMT - CH: Producer & Import prices (Feb) % y/y (Prev: 1.8)

08:30 GMT - CH: SNB - Libor Rate (Mar-15) % (Mkt: -0.75 Prev: -0.75)

08:30 GMT - CH: SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate (Mar-15) % (Mkt: -0.75 Prev: -0.75)

08:30 GMT - SE: SCB Unemployment (nsa) (Feb) % (Mkt: 7 Prev: 7)

09:00 GMT - NO: Norges Bank Deposit Rate (Mar-15) % (Mkt: 0.5 Prev: 0.5)

11:00 GMT - IE: CPI (Feb) % m/m (Prev: -0.7)

11:00 GMT - IE: CPI (Feb) %y/y (Prev: 0.2)

11:00 GMT - IE: HICP (Feb) % m/m (Prev: 0.7)

11:00 GMT - IE: HICP (Feb) %y/y (Prev: 0.3)

12:30 GMT - US: Empire State Survey (Mar) (Mkt: 15 Prev: 13.1)

12:30 GMT - US: Import Price Index (Feb) % m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: 1)

12:30 GMT - US: Initial Claims (Mar-10) k (Mkt: 228 Prev: 231)

12:30 GMT - US: Philadelphia Fed Survey (Mar) (Mkt: 23 Prev: 25.8)

14:00 GMT - BE: Trade Balance (Jan) EUR mn (Prev: -1857.1)

14:00 GMT - US: NAHB Builders survey (Mar) (Mkt: 72 Prev: 72)

20:00 GMT - US: Net Long-term TICS Flows (Jan) USD bn (Prev: 27.3)

Events & Auctions

WLD: IEA Monthly Oil Market Report

03:35 GMT - JP: Bills Auction

03:45 GMT - JP: Bond Auction

09:30 GMT - ES: Tap of Oblig. 1.4 4/30/28 (EUR 1.5bn)

09:30 GMT - ES: Tap of Oblig. 2.35 7/30/33 (EUR 1bn)

09:50 GMT - FR: Tap of OAT 0 05/25/21 (EUR 2.5bn)

09:50 GMT - FR: Tap of OAT 0 3/25/23 (EUR 3bn)

09:50 GMT - FR: Tap of OAT 0.5 5/25/25 (EUR 2bn)

09:50 GMT - FR: Tap of OATei 1.8 7/25/40 (EUR 0.45bn)

09:50 GMT - FR: Tap of OATi 0.1 3/1/28 (EUR 0.7bn)

09:50 GMT - FR: Tap of OATi 2.1 7/25/23 (EUR 0.6bn)

10:30 GMT - UK: Bond Auction 1.625% 2028 (GBP 2.5bn)

10:30 GMT - IE: Bills Auction

15:45 GMT - EU: ECB's Lautenschlager Speaks in Florence

17:00 GMT - NO: Norges' Olsen Annual Keynote Speech in Oslo

22:45 GMT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney


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