Forex - Psychology/Strategy for major markets today


 10:11 (GMT) 23 Aug

  [Forex Strategy]

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Psychology/Strategy for major markets today (0101-NRCR-C01)

EUR/USD - Initial recovery on better PMI data fails to stick, with weak confidence and orders still a concern. Still likely requires a more hawkish Powell to test 1.10, but EUR tone is soft.

USD/JPY - Little prospect of a move above 107 unless Powell sounds hawkish, but even then, equity weakness could be expected to limit JPY downside.

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD - GBP strength on Merkel comments overdone, but short positioning supports for now though scope for GBP volatility as parliament returns in early September.

DJIA and S&P - Fresh lift to risk mood, but S&P only back to recent range tops. Needs to clear 50-day moving average to make a more meaningful move back to the summer tops.

T.Bond - US short end still vulnerable in the near term if Powell gives non-dovish guidance following Harker and George. Next 2y band runs up to around 1.7%.


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