Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 08:46 (GMT) 19 Jun

  [Forex Highlights]

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Asia Close Highlights (0101-LWFP-C01)

19 June 2019

Regional Backdrop:

Asian currencies gained as trade optimism boosted risk sentiment on Wednesday. Trump's positive comments have rekindled some hope that trade war between the U.S. and China could abate as the two leaders meet next week at G20. KRW was biggest winner, up by 0.82% against the greenback. That was followed by TWD (+0.60%), THB (+0.38%), IDR (+0.37%), PHP (+0.2%) and MYR (+0.14%). Other currencies were quite stable.

USD/CNH saw slight reversion after a sharp move down in the NY session a day earlier. Pair consolidated around the 6.9000 handle then moved up around 50pips, last at 6.9062. Both U.S. and China have confirmed they are going to have a Trump-Xi meeting during G20 on June 28-29. Also policymakers from both sides are meeting before that. So that is helping market sentiment. PBoC fixed mid-point at 6.8893 vs. previous close of 6.9200. USD/CNY was last at 6.9049, lower than 6.9250 levels seen a day earlier. 1Y NDFs also came off to 6.9629 last.

USD/SGD fell to an intra-day low at 1.3660 at the beginning of Wednesday's Asian session, following the rekindling of the U.S. - China trade talks, which boosted the risk assets. Pair recovered subsequently to around 1.3680 and may eye the 1.3700 big figure next.

USD/IDR onshore spot gapped lower to open at 14263 on Wednesday after the overnight risk on created by dovish Draghi, and President Trump confirming a meeting with Chinese President Xi which has re-ignited hopes of a trade deal. Pair however traded sideways following the open as there were also some expectations for Bank Indonesia to ease policy rates this Thursday.

USD/INR onshore spot gapped lower to open at 69.5600 on Wednesday from previous close of 69.7000 amid a risk on tone created from dovish Draghi and trade optimism. Pair however could not break below the key 69.5000 in the morning, and returned to 69.70-levels at last look as higher oil prices underpinned.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - 6.8646 is the support level to watch if there is further breakthrough in relations. We believe that USD/CNY should trade close to 6.9000 for the time being, pending further trade developments.

USD/SGD - If Fed does not exhibit any sign of dovishness, pair may break above the 1.3700 and eye the 1.3725 resistance next.

USD/IDR - Another move above 14300 is likely if Fed remains 'patient' or if BI turns dovish.

USD/INR - The 70 handle is still on threat, but expect to find sellers above that ahead of the July 5 Budget announcement. Risk to 69.5000 is seen if Fed turns dovish.


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:57 (GMT) 16 Jun

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 17 Jun 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded with a bid tone overnight on Friday, rising to 97.500+ levels from near the 97 handle earlier amid a surge in U.S. May retail sales. This came after weak inflation reports and rising jobless claims earlier in the week, which coupled with trade tension continued to boost chances of a Fed rate cut.

The Fed meeting, along with BoJ and BoE meetings, is the highlight of the week and will set the tone of the markets for the coming weeks.

GBP reversed Thursday's gains against the EUR seen after the announcement of the first round results from the Tory leadership election, with EUR/GBP approaching Thursday's pre-result high of 0.8920 by mid-morning Friday, but still unable to get through.

EUR/USD tested the downside at 1.1200 but could not break through but erased all gains since the June 6 ECB meeting. Cable is near the May low after braking below 1.2600. USD/JPY rose to 108.50+ on US retail sales data.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD also lower, but AUD rebounded early this morning although NZD still below 0.6500 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US May Retail Sales 0.5% m/m (Prev: 0.3R Mkt: 0.6), +1.1pp with revisions

- US Apr Industrial Production +0.4%, Manufacturing +0.2%

- US Jun P Univ of Mich Sentiment 97.9 (Prev: 100.0 Mkt: 98), 5yr inflation expectations down to low of 2.2%

- Trump - 'doesn't matter' if Xi agrees to meet at G20. 'If he shows up, good. If he doesn't in the meantime they are paying billions of dollars'. On Trump - disagree with him entirely.

- VIX index: 15.28 (-3.41%)

- Gold Spot: $1,341.40/oz (-0.03%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.15 (+$0.14)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $52.60 (+$0.09)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 174.81 (+0.22%)

- 10y UST: 2.080% (-1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,089.61 (-0.07%); S&P: 2,886.98 (-0.16%); Nasdaq: 7,796.66 (-0.52%)

Data/Events Ahead:

In the U.S. Jun manufacturing survey from the Empire State is due. From the housing sector we will see Jun's NAHB homebuilders' survey.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were broadly in the red against the greenback on Friday amid trade and geopolitical tensions. INR (-0.41%), SGD (-0.35%), IDR (-0.31%) and PHP (-0.30%) led the decline. Only THB (+0.29%) saw modest gains amid persistent fund inflows.

USD/CNH were unable to move towards 6.9400 on Friday despite the sluggish IP report and retreated towards 6.9300 handle this morning. The road to 7.00 remains hindered by 6.9698 resistance at the moment. 1Y NDFs likewise unable to see a meaningful break above the 7 handle. USD/CNY onshore spot's gains were also limited by strong government intervention even as the pair headed to 6.9200+ levels. Focus is on 6.9350 handle to discern if USD/CNY catch up with USD/CNH pull.

USD/SGD traded in a bullish pattern following the US retail sales print, breaking above 1.3700 handle to highs of 1.3723. NODX and Electronics exports are expected to see further contraction to -20.8% y/y and -26.0% y/y respectively in May. Pair may break above the 1.3731 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs trade with an upside bias to 14420+ levels on Friday. Onshore spot also traded higher on Friday, breaking above 14300 to highs of 14325 in the afternoon. Eyes on the BI meeting this week and the June 28-29 G20 meetings where President Trump and President Xi are likely to meet. Eyes on 14350 resistance level in case of any weakness.

USD/INR 1M NDFs were seen with a bullish bias rising to 70+ levels overnight on Friday. Onshore spot also drifted higher to 69.80+ levels. RBI's dovishness at the June meeting helped the markets, but expect a slip below the 69 handle to be tough amid the economic challenges.

Data/Events Highlights:

China data was a mixed bag. Industrial production and fixed asset investment growths slowed to 5.0% y/y and 5.6% y/y respectively. Retail sales rebounded more than expected, inflated by favourable base effects. It grew by 8.6% y/y in May. Exports was positive on frontloading while food inflation pushed headline figures up.

India's WPI slipped to about two-year low at 2.45% y/y in May compared to 3.07% y/y for the previous month and 4.78% y/y during the corresponding month of the previous year.

Data/Events Ahead:

Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's NODX and Electronics on Monday.

Philippines' April remittances data is also due.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

n/a GMT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Apr) 4cast: 4.5% y/y [Prev: 6.6]

n/a GMT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Apr) USD bn [Prev: 2.514]

00:30 GMT - SG: NODX (May) 4cast: -20.8% y/y (Mkt: -19.4 Prev: -10)

00:30 GMT - SG: NODX - Electronics (May) 4cast: -26.0% y/y (Prev: -16.3)

01:30 GMT - AU: House Price Index (Q1) % q/q (Prev: -2.4)

12:30 GMT - US: Empire State Survey (Jun) index (Mkt: 12 Prev: 17.8)

13:00 GMT - CA: Existing Home Sales (May) 4cast: -1% m/m (Prev: 3.6)

14:00 GMT - US: NAHB Builders survey (Jun) index (Mkt: 67 Prev: 66)

20:00 GMT - US: Net Long-term TICS Flows (Apr) [Prev: -28.4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- 15:30 GMT - US: 3mth Bills Auction

- 15:30 GMT - US: 6mth Bills Auction

- 23:15 GMT - AU: RBA's Kearns Speaks in Canberra


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:57 (GMT) 16 Jun

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 17 Jun 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded with a bid tone overnight on Friday, rising to 97.500+ levels from near the 97 handle earlier amid a surge in U.S. May retail sales. This came after weak inflation reports and rising jobless claims earlier in the week, which coupled with trade tension continued to boost chances of a Fed rate cut.

The Fed meeting, along with BoJ and BoE meetings, is the highlight of the week and will set the tone of the markets for the coming weeks.

GBP reversed Thursday's gains against the EUR seen after the announcement of the first round results from the Tory leadership election, with EUR/GBP approaching Thursday's pre-result high of 0.8920 by mid-morning Friday, but still unable to get through.

EUR/USD tested the downside at 1.1200 but could not break through but erased all gains since the June 6 ECB meeting. Cable is near the May low after braking below 1.2600. USD/JPY rose to 108.50+ on US retail sales data.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD also lower, but AUD rebounded early this morning although NZD still below 0.6500 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US May Retail Sales 0.5% m/m (Prev: 0.3R Mkt: 0.6), +1.1pp with revisions

- US Apr Industrial Production +0.4%, Manufacturing +0.2%

- US Jun P Univ of Mich Sentiment 97.9 (Prev: 100.0 Mkt: 98), 5yr inflation expectations down to low of 2.2%

- Trump - 'doesn't matter' if Xi agrees to meet at G20. 'If he shows up, good. If he doesn't in the meantime they are paying billions of dollars'. On Trump - disagree with him entirely.

- VIX index: 15.28 (-3.41%)

- Gold Spot: $1,341.40/oz (-0.03%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.15 (+$0.14)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $52.60 (+$0.09)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 174.81 (+0.22%)

- 10y UST: 2.080% (-1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,089.61 (-0.07%); S&P: 2,886.98 (-0.16%); Nasdaq: 7,796.66 (-0.52%)

Data/Events Ahead:

In the U.S. Jun manufacturing survey from the Empire State is due. From the housing sector we will see Jun's NAHB homebuilders' survey.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were broadly in the red against the greenback on Friday amid trade and geopolitical tensions. INR (-0.41%), SGD (-0.35%), IDR (-0.31%) and PHP (-0.30%) led the decline. Only THB (+0.29%) saw modest gains amid persistent fund inflows.

USD/CNH were unable to move towards 6.9400 on Friday despite the sluggish IP report and retreated towards 6.9300 handle this morning. The road to 7.00 remains hindered by 6.9698 resistance at the moment. 1Y NDFs likewise unable to see a meaningful break above the 7 handle. USD/CNY onshore spot's gains were also limited by strong government intervention even as the pair headed to 6.9200+ levels. Focus is on 6.9350 handle to discern if USD/CNY catch up with USD/CNH pull.

USD/SGD traded in a bullish pattern following the US retail sales print, breaking above 1.3700 handle to highs of 1.3723. NODX and Electronics exports are expected to see further contraction to -20.8% y/y and -26.0% y/y respectively in May. Pair may break above the 1.3731 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs trade with an upside bias to 14420+ levels on Friday. Onshore spot also traded higher on Friday, breaking above 14300 to highs of 14325 in the afternoon. Eyes on the BI meeting this week and the June 28-29 G20 meetings where President Trump and President Xi are likely to meet. Eyes on 14350 resistance level in case of any weakness.

USD/INR 1M NDFs were seen with a bullish bias rising to 70+ levels overnight on Friday. Onshore spot also drifted higher to 69.80+ levels. RBI's dovishness at the June meeting helped the markets, but expect a slip below the 69 handle to be tough amid the economic challenges.

Data/Events Highlights:

China data was a mixed bag. Industrial production and fixed asset investment growths slowed to 5.0% y/y and 5.6% y/y respectively. Retail sales rebounded more than expected, inflated by favourable base effects. It grew by 8.6% y/y in May. Exports was positive on frontloading while food inflation pushed headline figures up.

India's WPI slipped to about two-year low at 2.45% y/y in May compared to 3.07% y/y for the previous month and 4.78% y/y during the corresponding month of the previous year.

Data/Events Ahead:

Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's NODX and Electronics on Monday.

Philippines' April remittances data is also due.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

n/a GMT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Apr) 4cast: 4.5% y/y [Prev: 6.6]

n/a GMT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Apr) USD bn [Prev: 2.514]

00:30 GMT - SG: NODX (May) 4cast: -20.8% y/y (Mkt: -19.4 Prev: -10)

00:30 GMT - SG: NODX - Electronics (May) 4cast: -26.0% y/y (Prev: -16.3)

01:30 GMT - AU: House Price Index (Q1) % q/q (Prev: -2.4)

12:30 GMT - US: Empire State Survey (Jun) index (Mkt: 12 Prev: 17.8)

13:00 GMT - CA: Existing Home Sales (May) 4cast: -1% m/m (Prev: 3.6)

14:00 GMT - US: NAHB Builders survey (Jun) index (Mkt: 67 Prev: 66)

20:00 GMT - US: Net Long-term TICS Flows (Apr) [Prev: -28.4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

- 15:30 GMT - US: 3mth Bills Auction

- 15:30 GMT - US: 6mth Bills Auction

- 23:15 GMT - AU: RBA's Kearns Speaks in Canberra


Forex - India Flows: Rupee slips further


 04:36 (GMT) 14 Jun

 [Forex Flows]

USD/INR onshore spot extends the rally on Thursday, rebounds from the dip following the higher open. Firmer oil prices amid geopolitical tension over tanker attack providing some support for the pair. Spot is inching towards the 69.670 resistance and a sustained move above latter will trigger gain to next target at 70.090. 1M NDFs continues to edge higher, seeking out Monday high at 69.90. SENSEX slips 0.32% thus far on Friday.


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