Bonds: Treasuries saw relatively subdued trading in the day before the FOMC meeting, with some of the recent curve flattening being taken back. Despite slippage in stocks there was some concern in the long end as question marks were raised at ratings agencies over the outlook for Treasuries' AAA status given the budget outlook. There was little reaction to an as expected Mar Empire State survey that saw a healthy breakdown but pressure began to build after Feb industrial production also came in near consensus. Weak NAHB data generated little instant reaction but may have helped some recovery late in the day. 2s -1bps 0.94%, 5s unchanged 2.40%, 10s unchanged 3.70%, and 30s +1bps 4.64%.
Equities: Stocks were under pressure for most of the day but a rally in the last hours saw the indices close firmer, the DJIA by 0.16% (+17.46 points) and the S+P by 0.05% (+0.52 points). Early pressure was induced by fears of China slowing its economy down and the inclusion of the Volcker rule in a financial reform package, though a rally at AIG gave late support to financials.
Asia Outlook: Overnight sentiments were still weighed by the uncertainty surrounding US-China relations as well as China's policy direction - especially with regards to FX - which has had investors fixated. Greece woes have receded but not quite resolved to satisfaction quite yet; and there is almost a collective notion that Eurozone problems may be at the start point rather than end even with Greece being ironed out. UK political situation also added to the bleak European story and it was of little surprise that equities did not enjoy the same reception as they once did and the USD was on top given the propensity for cautious trades. Sentiments into Asia could continue to be cautious and aggressive bets against the Greenback will probably not be ventured with impunity.
China continues to be the centre of attraction all over and especially has far-reaching implications for policy as well as FX in Asia; and in the meanwhile CNY proxy trades will have to take a back seat. Some focus on policy shifts beginning to take shape elsewhere in the region as well as tightening expectations in India is also growing. USD/AXJ will probably be supported in trades today given underlying uncertainty and the USD moves overnight. At the margin though, moves are likely to show two-way response.
NORTH ASIA
USD/KRW: Price action in the USD/KRW will probably be nudged up higher with consolidation in the 1132-1139 likely in the broader, near-term 1126-1145 range. Official bids below the 1130-handle should be triggered quite swiftly at current USD/KRW and JPY/KRW valuations. High vol in overnight NDFs which traded tightly amid 1136.5-1138.0; closed 1136.0-11137.0 from 1136.0-1138.0 open.
USD/CNY: Looks like Premier Wen standing his ground on CNY policy and the USD advancing overnight should support the 1-yr NDFs on the firmer side of the 6.6250-6.6680 range for now. 1-yr NDFs dealt 6.6480-6.6510; prices closed 6.6 460-6.6510.
USD/HKD: A slight USD squeeze overnight and lack of robust buying in equities should see the USD/HKD being supported in the 7.7578-7.7608 range for now; initial offers lined up ahead of the 7.7600-handle.
USD/TWD: Buy-back in dips seem to be the expectation for the USD/TWD given firmer Greenback overnight as well as central bank bids below. Initial support at 31.73 should remain intact with upside likely to be capped around 31.90 initially. 1-mth NDFs dealt 31.75-31.77 amid low vol before closing 31.73-31.76; had opened 31.71-31.74.
SOUTH ASIA
USD/SGD: Back and forth moves in the USD/SGD are likely to continue with initial buying seen below 1.3950 with 1.3930 as the stronger support. Further weakness in the EUR could see a drift higher to revisit of 1.4000+ levels. Intraday range of 1.3950-1.4005 expected for now.
USD/IDR: It appears that the USD/IDR NDFs could be bumped up further in trades today on the back of a firmer USD. Local markets closed for Hindu Day of Quiet; to resume trades tomorrow. Low vol of trades was seen in the London/NY 1-mth NDFs which closed 9200-9230 from 9180-9220 open; dealt 9215.
USD/MYR: Slip in the EUR overnight with USD gains being extended should see the USD/MYR being propped up on dips. Range of 3.3050-3.3300 is expected in trades today with initial paying interest seen around the 3.3100-figure. Not much price action in the 1-mth NDFs which dealt 3.3210 before closing 3.3195-3.3225 from 3.3190-3.3240 open.
USD/PHP: absence of fresh risk-on cues should see the USD/PHP in consolidation amid 45.60-45.90 intraday. Capital inflows or expectations of which could see some offers though strong buying interest should limit downside ahead of the 45.50 handle. No dealings in the overnight NDFs which closed 45.85-45.95, unchanged from opening levels.
USD/THB: Further consolidation is expected in the USD/THB with initial support around the 32.52 level ahead of good 32.50 support; a stronger USD though could induce some upside back towards 32.60+ levels today. Range of 32.52-32.65 is expected as such; BoT to smooth flows.
USD/INR: EUR slippage and waffling in equity markets could see the INR sluggish in trades today; which in turn suggests that latitude for USD/INR retreats may be constrained. Trades are likely to be in the 45.50-45.75 range with prices likely to gravitate to the firmer side of the 45.60 handle. Moderate vol of trades was cited in the 1-mth NDFs which traded 45.65-45.75 before closing 45.66-45.71 - the latter unchanged from opening levels.