Forex - Preview: due 16 Oct - US Sep Retail Sales


 21:47 (GMT) 03 Oct

  [Economic Data]

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Preview: due 16 Oct - US Sep Retail Sales (0101-PLML-C01)

We expect Sep retail sales to rise by only 0.1%, though this would still leave a solid 1.5% (not annualized) increase in Q3. Ex auto sales should also rise by 0.1%, but we expect sales ex auto and gasoline to rise by 0.3%, slightly improved from a subdued 0.1% in Aug that paused after a strong 0.9% increase in Jul.

Preview: due 16 Oct - US Sep Retail Sales (0101-PLML-C02)

Industry data shows auto sales edged higher in Sep but with Aug's retail auto data looking stronger than industry data implied the retail auto data might underperform in Sep. Aug's retail sales had a mixed breakdown with building materials as well as autos very strong but subdued data elsewhere, in particular a sharp slide in eating and drinking places.

Preview: due 16 Oct - US Sep Retail Sales (0101-PLML-C03)

The latter slide looks corrective from preceding strength and a strong rebound is not expected though sales ex auto and gasoline should still see some improvement from Aug. Gasoline should be restrained by lower prices, and possibly lower volumes with Aug gasoline sales having fallen by less than price data implied.


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