Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:39 (GMT) 10 Sep

  [Forex Highlights]

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Asia Overnight Highlights - 11 Sept 2019

MAJORS

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights (0101-NSRV-C01)

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index saw modest gains overnight on Tuesday after falling initially against the EUR. A fall in the US job openings for a second straight month underpinned.

USD/JPY edged a touch lower before picking up on a report that China would buy more US agricultural products, though the response to the story was modest, though rising UST yields helped the pair reach 107.60.

GBP/USD led the moves in EUR/USD. The causes of early volatility were unclear, but the stronger than expected earnings data provided support.

SEK and NOK both weakened after softer than expected CPI data reversing recent gains. Swedish CPIF rose 1.3% y/y in August, below the 1.5% expected, while Norwegian core CPI rose 2.1% y/y, below the 2.2% expected.

Canadian housing starts and building permits were both slightly on the strong side of expectations in August, helping CAD gains. USD/CAD reached a low of 1.3129 while AUD/CAD found sellers around 0.9050.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US NFIB small business optimism fell to 103.1 from 104.7 vs 103.5 exp.

- US Jul job openings fell to 7217k from 7248k vs 7331k exp.

- UK average earnings rose 4% y/y including bonuses in the 3 months to July, the largest rise since 2010. But other aspects of the data were less strong, with employment growth slowing and vacancies weakening.

- French industrial production was slightly weaker than expected, rising 0.3% in July. Italian production was also weaker, falling 0.7% m/m.

- VIX index: 15.20 (-0.46%)

- Gold Spot: $1,487.43/oz (+0.11%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.38 ($-0.21)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.84 (+$0.44)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 174.94 (+0.36%)

- 10y UST: 1.732% (+9bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,909.43 (+0.28%); S&P: 2,979.39 (+0.03%); Nasdaq: 8,084.16 (-0.04%)

Data/Events Ahead:

US inflation data starts to come in focus. August PPI is due today.

EMERGING ASIA

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights (0101-NSRV-C02)

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies were in the green against the dollar. MYR (+0.19%) led the gains and CNY and CNH were up 0.13% and 0.12% respectively against the dollar amid talks of China deal to buy American agricultural goods. PHP was down 0.23% against the greenback due to a wider trade deficit in July, followed by IDR which fell 0.11%.

USD/CNH saw slips towards the 7.1000 handle on Tuesday amid reports of China's deal to buy agricultural products from the US. Pair however returned to trade around 7.1100+ levels in the NY session amid a firmer US dollar. If 7.1000 psychological support is broken, watch 7.0845 technical support. USD/CNY onshore spot also traded to fresh lows of 7.0980 on Tuesday before closing at 7.1130. We watch for a firmer break below 7.1000 as a key psychological support for USD/CNY. 1Y NDFs likewise fell to 7.1605 lows on Tuesday but rebounded to trade around 7.1700 handle in NY session.

USD/SGD pivoted around the 1.3800 handle on Tuesday, gaining to 1.3813 earlier in the day but sliding to 1.3788 lows subsequently - a level where it has stalled for the last 3 days. If the 1.3777 support is broken, we will turn our attention to the 1.3744 support.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs picked up some traction to trade around 14100 overnight on Tuesday as the USD firmed up on jobs report and prospect of a China deal. Onshore spot traded to fresh MTD lows of 14028 on Tuesday but firmed up slightly to 14050 into the close. Strong support at 14025 should contain the slide in the pair and return to 14100+ levels remains likely on any reports of trade talks delay.

USD/INR 1M NDFs traded higher to 72.200+ levels earlier on Tuesday, printing highs at 72.350. Onshore markets remained closed on Tuesday or a local holiday. The downside below 72 remains shallow amid domestic headwinds. We do not see any risk to the 71.375 support.

Data/Events Highlights:

China's inflation remains elevated at 2.8% y/y in August, unchanged from July. PPI dipped further to -0.8% y/y in August from -0.3% prior.

Philippines' exports eked out modest gains of 3.5% y/y in July, and imports saw smaller declines of 4.2% y/y in July. That translated into a wider trade deficit of USD3393mn in July.

Data/Events Ahead:

Malaysia's July industrial production is on watch on Wednesday after few months of upbeat readings.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: Industrial Production (Jul) 4cast: 3.5% y/y [Mkt: 3.1, Prev: 3.9]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: PPI (Aug) 4cast: 0% m/m [Mkt: 0, Prev: 0.2]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: PPI (ex Food & Energy) (Aug) 4cast: 0.2% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.1]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Wholesale Inventories (Jul F) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

23:01 GMT / 07:01 SGT - UK: RICS Housing Survey (Aug) [Mkt: -10, Prev: -9]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: PPI (Aug) [Mkt: -0.2, Prev: 0]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: PPI (Aug) [Mkt: -0.2, Prev: -0.6]

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: Core Machine orders (Jul) 4cast: -2.5% y/y [Mkt: -9, Prev: 12.5]u

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

03:35 GMT / 11:35 SGT - JP: 5yr Bonds Auction

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: 10yr Notes Auction (USD 24bln)u


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:44 (GMT) 09 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 10 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

GBP weakened early in Europe but recovered strongly, helped by better than expected GDP data. GBP/USD peaked at 1.2382 and while a brief correction was seen on the news Speaker Bercow (who helped enable Parliament to oppose a no deal Brexit) was to resign, it remained firm. UK PM Johnson visiting Ireland expressed optimism that a Brexit deal can be done, but Irish PM Varadkar said that no backstop mean no deal for them.
EUR/USD advanced as far as 1.1067 on a report that Germany was mulling a shadow budget that would enable spending beyond domestic limits. The USD was generally weaker, losing ground against most risk-sensitive currencies, while gaining a touch against the JPY in more risk positive markets. Equities giving up their gains saw USD/JPY briefly below 107.00 but UST yields continued to support.
Data Overnight:

UK GDP rose 0.3% in July, with all sectors showing m/m rises, making a Q2/Q3 recession very unlikely if July is left unrevised. The July goods trade deficit was slightly smaller than expected at 9.14bn. German trade data showed a larger than expected surplus of EUR20.2bn in July, helped both by a rise in exports and a decline in imports.
Data Ahead:

The Australian confidence data will be a focus on Tuesday. The RBA chose to wait and see in the September meeting, but the confidence data will be on RBA's watch list to look for any pass-through from monetary policy stimulus to the business sector as post-tax cut optimism has faded. Conditions in the retail sector are at recessionary levels, increasing the downside risk to retail sales numbers, and will be key to watch. In the absence of significant changes in risk tone, near-term sentiment on the AUD might depend on the data.

- VIX index: 15.00 (-7.81%)

- Gold Spot: $1,506.54/oz (-0.01%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $61.77 (+$0.23)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.88 (+$0.36)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.62 (+0.16%)

- 10y UST: 1.560% (+0bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,797.46 (+0.26%); S&P: 2,978.71 (+0.09%); Nasdaq: 8,103.07 (-0.17%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Japan's final print of Q2 GDP will be out today. There is likely some downward revision of the preliminary print to take into account the latest capital spending and household consumption data. August Economic watchers survey will be out on the same day.

US Jul consumer credit will be out today as well.

We expect a 0.1% fall in the UK July monthly GDP update (at least in m/m terms) an outcome which would be a repeat of the June outcome.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies saw gains against the USD on Monday, as dollar weakened following disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) data in August. IDR was the biggest winner, up 0.39% against the greenback. This was followed by KRW (0.32%), INR (0.26%), THB (0.11%) and PHP (0.10%). CNH and CNY were the biggest losers, down 0.32% and 0.25% respectively against the dollar, partially due to China's weak trade data in August. HKD, JPY, SGD and TWD were relatively unchanged. Malaysia's markets were closed on Monday due to a market holiday.

USD/CNH is retreating from the mild bid tone on Monday. Pair was last at 7.7.1195 after a week low of 7.0961 on Friday and a 7.1320 high on Monday. Next data point is China CPI and PPI data on Tuesday. This is likely to show elevated CPI pressures while factory prices fall again. Resistance of 7.1438 next to watch for.

1Y NDF remained last at 7.1851, within a narrow range during NY trading hours. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0851 vs. previous close of 7.1150. USD/CNY was slightly higher on Monday, last at 7.1333. For USDCNY, it is likely to trade above 7.1000. A test of 7.1500 psychological big figure may pose further upside risks to 3 September high of 7.1847.

USD/SGD was relatively stable, last at 1.3803. It held just above the 1.3800 big figure during Monday's Asian session. Risks, however, were tilted slightly to the downside following dollar weakness, which was accentuated by weak U.S. data in last week's session. Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's July retail sales data on Thursday. Eyes remain on the 1.3794 support. If broken, will turn our attention to the 1.3744 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDF was stabilizing last at 14079 during NY session. Onshore spot remained below the key 14100 mark on Monday, amid a downbeat NFP weighing on the USD. The downside was extended to sub-14080 levels seen but a drop to sub-14050 levels was only seen in the afternoon with the pair printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14030 at last look amid optimism around US-China trade talks and China's stimulus measures helping to contain the growth downside. Clear risk to 14025 support followed by the 14000 big figure, upside will now be contained by 14180/190 area.

During the NY session, USD/INR 1M NDF was last inching up to 72.12. The onshore spot traded with an offered tone at the start of the new week, slipping to fresh MTD lows of 71.500 from previous close of 71.720. A downbeat NFP print on Friday weighed on the dollar, and further China stimulus measures also boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal stimulus from FinMin Sitaraman kept the rupee in gains despite higher oil prices. Support at 71.375 is coming into view, break of which will open the doors for further correction to the 71 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

Taiwan exports rose 2.6% y/y from a 0.5% fall a month ago. Trade surplus also surprised on the upside.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's August CPI and PPI is released today, where we expect continued factory price deflation and elevated consumer price pressures from food.

China's August monetary data is also due sometime this week.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Exports (Jul) 4cast: 2.1% y/y [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.5]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Imports (Jul) 4cast: -4.1% y/y [Mkt: -5, Prev: -10.4]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: -3482USD mn [Mkt: -3327, Prev: -2473]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Conditions (Aug) [Prev: 2]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Sep) [Prev: 4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 2.6, Prev: 2.8]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: PPI (Aug) 4cast: -0.5% y/y [Mkt: -0.9, Prev: -0.3]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 3.9, Prev: 3.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Jul) 4cast: 3.7% 3m y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) 4cast: 104 [Mkt: 103.5, Prev: 104.7]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - CA: Housing Starts (Aug) 4cast: 215k [Mkt: 212.5, Prev: 222]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - CA: Building permits (Jul) [Mkt: 2, Prev: -3.7]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Unemployment (sa) (Aug) 4cast: 4% y/y [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - EU: ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result

15:30 GMT / 23:30 SGT - US: 52wk Bills Auction (USD 28bln)

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: 3yr Notes Auction (USD 38bln)


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:44 (GMT) 09 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 10 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

GBP weakened early in Europe but recovered strongly, helped by better than expected GDP data. GBP/USD peaked at 1.2382 and while a brief correction was seen on the news Speaker Bercow (who helped enable Parliament to oppose a no deal Brexit) was to resign, it remained firm. UK PM Johnson visiting Ireland expressed optimism that a Brexit deal can be done, but Irish PM Varadkar said that no backstop mean no deal for them.
EUR/USD advanced as far as 1.1067 on a report that Germany was mulling a shadow budget that would enable spending beyond domestic limits. The USD was generally weaker, losing ground against most risk-sensitive currencies, while gaining a touch against the JPY in more risk positive markets. Equities giving up their gains saw USD/JPY briefly below 107.00 but UST yields continued to support.
Data Overnight:

UK GDP rose 0.3% in July, with all sectors showing m/m rises, making a Q2/Q3 recession very unlikely if July is left unrevised. The July goods trade deficit was slightly smaller than expected at 9.14bn. German trade data showed a larger than expected surplus of EUR20.2bn in July, helped both by a rise in exports and a decline in imports.
Data Ahead:

The Australian confidence data will be a focus on Tuesday. The RBA chose to wait and see in the September meeting, but the confidence data will be on RBA's watch list to look for any pass-through from monetary policy stimulus to the business sector as post-tax cut optimism has faded. Conditions in the retail sector are at recessionary levels, increasing the downside risk to retail sales numbers, and will be key to watch. In the absence of significant changes in risk tone, near-term sentiment on the AUD might depend on the data.

- VIX index: 15.00 (-7.81%)

- Gold Spot: $1,506.54/oz (-0.01%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $61.77 (+$0.23)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.88 (+$0.36)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.62 (+0.16%)

- 10y UST: 1.560% (+0bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,797.46 (+0.26%); S&P: 2,978.71 (+0.09%); Nasdaq: 8,103.07 (-0.17%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Japan's final print of Q2 GDP will be out today. There is likely some downward revision of the preliminary print to take into account the latest capital spending and household consumption data. August Economic watchers survey will be out on the same day.

US Jul consumer credit will be out today as well.

We expect a 0.1% fall in the UK July monthly GDP update (at least in m/m terms) an outcome which would be a repeat of the June outcome.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies saw gains against the USD on Monday, as dollar weakened following disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) data in August. IDR was the biggest winner, up 0.39% against the greenback. This was followed by KRW (0.32%), INR (0.26%), THB (0.11%) and PHP (0.10%). CNH and CNY were the biggest losers, down 0.32% and 0.25% respectively against the dollar, partially due to China's weak trade data in August. HKD, JPY, SGD and TWD were relatively unchanged. Malaysia's markets were closed on Monday due to a market holiday.

USD/CNH is retreating from the mild bid tone on Monday. Pair was last at 7.7.1195 after a week low of 7.0961 on Friday and a 7.1320 high on Monday. Next data point is China CPI and PPI data on Tuesday. This is likely to show elevated CPI pressures while factory prices fall again. Resistance of 7.1438 next to watch for.

1Y NDF remained last at 7.1851, within a narrow range during NY trading hours. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0851 vs. previous close of 7.1150. USD/CNY was slightly higher on Monday, last at 7.1333. For USDCNY, it is likely to trade above 7.1000. A test of 7.1500 psychological big figure may pose further upside risks to 3 September high of 7.1847.

USD/SGD was relatively stable, last at 1.3803. It held just above the 1.3800 big figure during Monday's Asian session. Risks, however, were tilted slightly to the downside following dollar weakness, which was accentuated by weak U.S. data in last week's session. Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's July retail sales data on Thursday. Eyes remain on the 1.3794 support. If broken, will turn our attention to the 1.3744 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDF was stabilizing last at 14079 during NY session. Onshore spot remained below the key 14100 mark on Monday, amid a downbeat NFP weighing on the USD. The downside was extended to sub-14080 levels seen but a drop to sub-14050 levels was only seen in the afternoon with the pair printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14030 at last look amid optimism around US-China trade talks and China's stimulus measures helping to contain the growth downside. Clear risk to 14025 support followed by the 14000 big figure, upside will now be contained by 14180/190 area.

During the NY session, USD/INR 1M NDF was last inching up to 72.12. The onshore spot traded with an offered tone at the start of the new week, slipping to fresh MTD lows of 71.500 from previous close of 71.720. A downbeat NFP print on Friday weighed on the dollar, and further China stimulus measures also boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal stimulus from FinMin Sitaraman kept the rupee in gains despite higher oil prices. Support at 71.375 is coming into view, break of which will open the doors for further correction to the 71 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

Taiwan exports rose 2.6% y/y from a 0.5% fall a month ago. Trade surplus also surprised on the upside.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's August CPI and PPI is released today, where we expect continued factory price deflation and elevated consumer price pressures from food.

China's August monetary data is also due sometime this week.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Exports (Jul) 4cast: 2.1% y/y [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.5]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Imports (Jul) 4cast: -4.1% y/y [Mkt: -5, Prev: -10.4]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: -3482USD mn [Mkt: -3327, Prev: -2473]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Conditions (Aug) [Prev: 2]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Sep) [Prev: 4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 2.6, Prev: 2.8]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: PPI (Aug) 4cast: -0.5% y/y [Mkt: -0.9, Prev: -0.3]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 3.9, Prev: 3.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Jul) 4cast: 3.7% 3m y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) 4cast: 104 [Mkt: 103.5, Prev: 104.7]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - CA: Housing Starts (Aug) 4cast: 215k [Mkt: 212.5, Prev: 222]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - CA: Building permits (Jul) [Mkt: 2, Prev: -3.7]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Unemployment (sa) (Aug) 4cast: 4% y/y [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - EU: ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result

15:30 GMT / 23:30 SGT - US: 52wk Bills Auction (USD 28bln)

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: 3yr Notes Auction (USD 38bln)


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:44 (GMT) 09 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 10 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

GBP weakened early in Europe but recovered strongly, helped by better than expected GDP data. GBP/USD peaked at 1.2382 and while a brief correction was seen on the news Speaker Bercow (who helped enable Parliament to oppose a no deal Brexit) was to resign, it remained firm. UK PM Johnson visiting Ireland expressed optimism that a Brexit deal can be done, but Irish PM Varadkar said that no backstop mean no deal for them.
EUR/USD advanced as far as 1.1067 on a report that Germany was mulling a shadow budget that would enable spending beyond domestic limits. The USD was generally weaker, losing ground against most risk-sensitive currencies, while gaining a touch against the JPY in more risk positive markets. Equities giving up their gains saw USD/JPY briefly below 107.00 but UST yields continued to support.
Data Overnight:

UK GDP rose 0.3% in July, with all sectors showing m/m rises, making a Q2/Q3 recession very unlikely if July is left unrevised. The July goods trade deficit was slightly smaller than expected at 9.14bn. German trade data showed a larger than expected surplus of EUR20.2bn in July, helped both by a rise in exports and a decline in imports.
Data Ahead:

The Australian confidence data will be a focus on Tuesday. The RBA chose to wait and see in the September meeting, but the confidence data will be on RBA's watch list to look for any pass-through from monetary policy stimulus to the business sector as post-tax cut optimism has faded. Conditions in the retail sector are at recessionary levels, increasing the downside risk to retail sales numbers, and will be key to watch. In the absence of significant changes in risk tone, near-term sentiment on the AUD might depend on the data.

- VIX index: 15.00 (-7.81%)

- Gold Spot: $1,506.54/oz (-0.01%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $61.77 (+$0.23)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.88 (+$0.36)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.62 (+0.16%)

- 10y UST: 1.560% (+0bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,797.46 (+0.26%); S&P: 2,978.71 (+0.09%); Nasdaq: 8,103.07 (-0.17%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Japan's final print of Q2 GDP will be out today. There is likely some downward revision of the preliminary print to take into account the latest capital spending and household consumption data. August Economic watchers survey will be out on the same day.

US Jul consumer credit will be out today as well.

We expect a 0.1% fall in the UK July monthly GDP update (at least in m/m terms) an outcome which would be a repeat of the June outcome.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies saw gains against the USD on Monday, as dollar weakened following disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) data in August. IDR was the biggest winner, up 0.39% against the greenback. This was followed by KRW (0.32%), INR (0.26%), THB (0.11%) and PHP (0.10%). CNH and CNY were the biggest losers, down 0.32% and 0.25% respectively against the dollar, partially due to China's weak trade data in August. HKD, JPY, SGD and TWD were relatively unchanged. Malaysia's markets were closed on Monday due to a market holiday.

USD/CNH is retreating from the mild bid tone on Monday. Pair was last at 7.7.1195 after a week low of 7.0961 on Friday and a 7.1320 high on Monday. Next data point is China CPI and PPI data on Tuesday. This is likely to show elevated CPI pressures while factory prices fall again. Resistance of 7.1438 next to watch for.

1Y NDF remained last at 7.1851, within a narrow range during NY trading hours. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0851 vs. previous close of 7.1150. USD/CNY was slightly higher on Monday, last at 7.1333. For USDCNY, it is likely to trade above 7.1000. A test of 7.1500 psychological big figure may pose further upside risks to 3 September high of 7.1847.

USD/SGD was relatively stable, last at 1.3803. It held just above the 1.3800 big figure during Monday's Asian session. Risks, however, were tilted slightly to the downside following dollar weakness, which was accentuated by weak U.S. data in last week's session. Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's July retail sales data on Thursday. Eyes remain on the 1.3794 support. If broken, will turn our attention to the 1.3744 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDF was stabilizing last at 14079 during NY session. Onshore spot remained below the key 14100 mark on Monday, amid a downbeat NFP weighing on the USD. The downside was extended to sub-14080 levels seen but a drop to sub-14050 levels was only seen in the afternoon with the pair printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14030 at last look amid optimism around US-China trade talks and China's stimulus measures helping to contain the growth downside. Clear risk to 14025 support followed by the 14000 big figure, upside will now be contained by 14180/190 area.

During the NY session, USD/INR 1M NDF was last inching up to 72.12. The onshore spot traded with an offered tone at the start of the new week, slipping to fresh MTD lows of 71.500 from previous close of 71.720. A downbeat NFP print on Friday weighed on the dollar, and further China stimulus measures also boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal stimulus from FinMin Sitaraman kept the rupee in gains despite higher oil prices. Support at 71.375 is coming into view, break of which will open the doors for further correction to the 71 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

Taiwan exports rose 2.6% y/y from a 0.5% fall a month ago. Trade surplus also surprised on the upside.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's August CPI and PPI is released today, where we expect continued factory price deflation and elevated consumer price pressures from food.

China's August monetary data is also due sometime this week.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Exports (Jul) 4cast: 2.1% y/y [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.5]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Imports (Jul) 4cast: -4.1% y/y [Mkt: -5, Prev: -10.4]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: -3482USD mn [Mkt: -3327, Prev: -2473]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Conditions (Aug) [Prev: 2]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Sep) [Prev: 4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 2.6, Prev: 2.8]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: PPI (Aug) 4cast: -0.5% y/y [Mkt: -0.9, Prev: -0.3]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 3.9, Prev: 3.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Jul) 4cast: 3.7% 3m y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) 4cast: 104 [Mkt: 103.5, Prev: 104.7]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - CA: Housing Starts (Aug) 4cast: 215k [Mkt: 212.5, Prev: 222]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - CA: Building permits (Jul) [Mkt: 2, Prev: -3.7]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Unemployment (sa) (Aug) 4cast: 4% y/y [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - EU: ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result

15:30 GMT / 23:30 SGT - US: 52wk Bills Auction (USD 28bln)

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: 3yr Notes Auction (USD 38bln)


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:44 (GMT) 09 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 10 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

GBP weakened early in Europe but recovered strongly, helped by better than expected GDP data. GBP/USD peaked at 1.2382 and while a brief correction was seen on the news Speaker Bercow (who helped enable Parliament to oppose a no deal Brexit) was to resign, it remained firm. UK PM Johnson visiting Ireland expressed optimism that a Brexit deal can be done, but Irish PM Varadkar said that no backstop mean no deal for them.
EUR/USD advanced as far as 1.1067 on a report that Germany was mulling a shadow budget that would enable spending beyond domestic limits. The USD was generally weaker, losing ground against most risk-sensitive currencies, while gaining a touch against the JPY in more risk positive markets. Equities giving up their gains saw USD/JPY briefly below 107.00 but UST yields continued to support.
Data Overnight:

UK GDP rose 0.3% in July, with all sectors showing m/m rises, making a Q2/Q3 recession very unlikely if July is left unrevised. The July goods trade deficit was slightly smaller than expected at 9.14bn. German trade data showed a larger than expected surplus of EUR20.2bn in July, helped both by a rise in exports and a decline in imports.
Data Ahead:

The Australian confidence data will be a focus on Tuesday. The RBA chose to wait and see in the September meeting, but the confidence data will be on RBA's watch list to look for any pass-through from monetary policy stimulus to the business sector as post-tax cut optimism has faded. Conditions in the retail sector are at recessionary levels, increasing the downside risk to retail sales numbers, and will be key to watch. In the absence of significant changes in risk tone, near-term sentiment on the AUD might depend on the data.

- VIX index: 15.00 (-7.81%)

- Gold Spot: $1,506.54/oz (-0.01%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $61.77 (+$0.23)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.88 (+$0.36)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.62 (+0.16%)

- 10y UST: 1.560% (+0bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,797.46 (+0.26%); S&P: 2,978.71 (+0.09%); Nasdaq: 8,103.07 (-0.17%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Japan's final print of Q2 GDP will be out today. There is likely some downward revision of the preliminary print to take into account the latest capital spending and household consumption data. August Economic watchers survey will be out on the same day.

US Jul consumer credit will be out today as well.

We expect a 0.1% fall in the UK July monthly GDP update (at least in m/m terms) an outcome which would be a repeat of the June outcome.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies saw gains against the USD on Monday, as dollar weakened following disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) data in August. IDR was the biggest winner, up 0.39% against the greenback. This was followed by KRW (0.32%), INR (0.26%), THB (0.11%) and PHP (0.10%). CNH and CNY were the biggest losers, down 0.32% and 0.25% respectively against the dollar, partially due to China's weak trade data in August. HKD, JPY, SGD and TWD were relatively unchanged. Malaysia's markets were closed on Monday due to a market holiday.

USD/CNH is retreating from the mild bid tone on Monday. Pair was last at 7.7.1195 after a week low of 7.0961 on Friday and a 7.1320 high on Monday. Next data point is China CPI and PPI data on Tuesday. This is likely to show elevated CPI pressures while factory prices fall again. Resistance of 7.1438 next to watch for.

1Y NDF remained last at 7.1851, within a narrow range during NY trading hours. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0851 vs. previous close of 7.1150. USD/CNY was slightly higher on Monday, last at 7.1333. For USDCNY, it is likely to trade above 7.1000. A test of 7.1500 psychological big figure may pose further upside risks to 3 September high of 7.1847.

USD/SGD was relatively stable, last at 1.3803. It held just above the 1.3800 big figure during Monday's Asian session. Risks, however, were tilted slightly to the downside following dollar weakness, which was accentuated by weak U.S. data in last week's session. Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's July retail sales data on Thursday. Eyes remain on the 1.3794 support. If broken, will turn our attention to the 1.3744 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDF was stabilizing last at 14079 during NY session. Onshore spot remained below the key 14100 mark on Monday, amid a downbeat NFP weighing on the USD. The downside was extended to sub-14080 levels seen but a drop to sub-14050 levels was only seen in the afternoon with the pair printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14030 at last look amid optimism around US-China trade talks and China's stimulus measures helping to contain the growth downside. Clear risk to 14025 support followed by the 14000 big figure, upside will now be contained by 14180/190 area.

During the NY session, USD/INR 1M NDF was last inching up to 72.12. The onshore spot traded with an offered tone at the start of the new week, slipping to fresh MTD lows of 71.500 from previous close of 71.720. A downbeat NFP print on Friday weighed on the dollar, and further China stimulus measures also boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal stimulus from FinMin Sitaraman kept the rupee in gains despite higher oil prices. Support at 71.375 is coming into view, break of which will open the doors for further correction to the 71 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

Taiwan exports rose 2.6% y/y from a 0.5% fall a month ago. Trade surplus also surprised on the upside.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's August CPI and PPI is released today, where we expect continued factory price deflation and elevated consumer price pressures from food.

China's August monetary data is also due sometime this week.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Exports (Jul) 4cast: 2.1% y/y [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.5]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Imports (Jul) 4cast: -4.1% y/y [Mkt: -5, Prev: -10.4]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: -3482USD mn [Mkt: -3327, Prev: -2473]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Conditions (Aug) [Prev: 2]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Sep) [Prev: 4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 2.6, Prev: 2.8]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: PPI (Aug) 4cast: -0.5% y/y [Mkt: -0.9, Prev: -0.3]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 3.9, Prev: 3.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Jul) 4cast: 3.7% 3m y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) 4cast: 104 [Mkt: 103.5, Prev: 104.7]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - CA: Housing Starts (Aug) 4cast: 215k [Mkt: 212.5, Prev: 222]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - CA: Building permits (Jul) [Mkt: 2, Prev: -3.7]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Unemployment (sa) (Aug) 4cast: 4% y/y [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - EU: ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result

15:30 GMT / 23:30 SGT - US: 52wk Bills Auction (USD 28bln)

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: 3yr Notes Auction (USD 38bln)


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:44 (GMT) 09 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 10 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

GBP weakened early in Europe but recovered strongly, helped by better than expected GDP data. GBP/USD peaked at 1.2382 and while a brief correction was seen on the news Speaker Bercow (who helped enable Parliament to oppose a no deal Brexit) was to resign, it remained firm. UK PM Johnson visiting Ireland expressed optimism that a Brexit deal can be done, but Irish PM Varadkar said that no backstop mean no deal for them.
EUR/USD advanced as far as 1.1067 on a report that Germany was mulling a shadow budget that would enable spending beyond domestic limits. The USD was generally weaker, losing ground against most risk-sensitive currencies, while gaining a touch against the JPY in more risk positive markets. Equities giving up their gains saw USD/JPY briefly below 107.00 but UST yields continued to support.
Data Overnight:

UK GDP rose 0.3% in July, with all sectors showing m/m rises, making a Q2/Q3 recession very unlikely if July is left unrevised. The July goods trade deficit was slightly smaller than expected at 9.14bn. German trade data showed a larger than expected surplus of EUR20.2bn in July, helped both by a rise in exports and a decline in imports.
Data Ahead:

The Australian confidence data will be a focus on Tuesday. The RBA chose to wait and see in the September meeting, but the confidence data will be on RBA's watch list to look for any pass-through from monetary policy stimulus to the business sector as post-tax cut optimism has faded. Conditions in the retail sector are at recessionary levels, increasing the downside risk to retail sales numbers, and will be key to watch. In the absence of significant changes in risk tone, near-term sentiment on the AUD might depend on the data.

- VIX index: 15.00 (-7.81%)

- Gold Spot: $1,506.54/oz (-0.01%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $61.77 (+$0.23)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.88 (+$0.36)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.62 (+0.16%)

- 10y UST: 1.560% (+0bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,797.46 (+0.26%); S&P: 2,978.71 (+0.09%); Nasdaq: 8,103.07 (-0.17%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Japan's final print of Q2 GDP will be out today. There is likely some downward revision of the preliminary print to take into account the latest capital spending and household consumption data. August Economic watchers survey will be out on the same day.

US Jul consumer credit will be out today as well.

We expect a 0.1% fall in the UK July monthly GDP update (at least in m/m terms) an outcome which would be a repeat of the June outcome.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies saw gains against the USD on Monday, as dollar weakened following disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) data in August. IDR was the biggest winner, up 0.39% against the greenback. This was followed by KRW (0.32%), INR (0.26%), THB (0.11%) and PHP (0.10%). CNH and CNY were the biggest losers, down 0.32% and 0.25% respectively against the dollar, partially due to China's weak trade data in August. HKD, JPY, SGD and TWD were relatively unchanged. Malaysia's markets were closed on Monday due to a market holiday.

USD/CNH is retreating from the mild bid tone on Monday. Pair was last at 7.7.1195 after a week low of 7.0961 on Friday and a 7.1320 high on Monday. Next data point is China CPI and PPI data on Tuesday. This is likely to show elevated CPI pressures while factory prices fall again. Resistance of 7.1438 next to watch for.

1Y NDF remained last at 7.1851, within a narrow range during NY trading hours. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0851 vs. previous close of 7.1150. USD/CNY was slightly higher on Monday, last at 7.1333. For USDCNY, it is likely to trade above 7.1000. A test of 7.1500 psychological big figure may pose further upside risks to 3 September high of 7.1847.

USD/SGD was relatively stable, last at 1.3803. It held just above the 1.3800 big figure during Monday's Asian session. Risks, however, were tilted slightly to the downside following dollar weakness, which was accentuated by weak U.S. data in last week's session. Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's July retail sales data on Thursday. Eyes remain on the 1.3794 support. If broken, will turn our attention to the 1.3744 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDF was stabilizing last at 14079 during NY session. Onshore spot remained below the key 14100 mark on Monday, amid a downbeat NFP weighing on the USD. The downside was extended to sub-14080 levels seen but a drop to sub-14050 levels was only seen in the afternoon with the pair printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14030 at last look amid optimism around US-China trade talks and China's stimulus measures helping to contain the growth downside. Clear risk to 14025 support followed by the 14000 big figure, upside will now be contained by 14180/190 area.

During the NY session, USD/INR 1M NDF was last inching up to 72.12. The onshore spot traded with an offered tone at the start of the new week, slipping to fresh MTD lows of 71.500 from previous close of 71.720. A downbeat NFP print on Friday weighed on the dollar, and further China stimulus measures also boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal stimulus from FinMin Sitaraman kept the rupee in gains despite higher oil prices. Support at 71.375 is coming into view, break of which will open the doors for further correction to the 71 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

Taiwan exports rose 2.6% y/y from a 0.5% fall a month ago. Trade surplus also surprised on the upside.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's August CPI and PPI is released today, where we expect continued factory price deflation and elevated consumer price pressures from food.

China's August monetary data is also due sometime this week.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Exports (Jul) 4cast: 2.1% y/y [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.5]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Imports (Jul) 4cast: -4.1% y/y [Mkt: -5, Prev: -10.4]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: -3482USD mn [Mkt: -3327, Prev: -2473]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Conditions (Aug) [Prev: 2]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Sep) [Prev: 4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 2.6, Prev: 2.8]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: PPI (Aug) 4cast: -0.5% y/y [Mkt: -0.9, Prev: -0.3]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 3.9, Prev: 3.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Jul) 4cast: 3.7% 3m y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) 4cast: 104 [Mkt: 103.5, Prev: 104.7]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - CA: Housing Starts (Aug) 4cast: 215k [Mkt: 212.5, Prev: 222]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - CA: Building permits (Jul) [Mkt: 2, Prev: -3.7]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Unemployment (sa) (Aug) 4cast: 4% y/y [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - EU: ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result

15:30 GMT / 23:30 SGT - US: 52wk Bills Auction (USD 28bln)

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: 3yr Notes Auction (USD 38bln)


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:44 (GMT) 09 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 10 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

GBP weakened early in Europe but recovered strongly, helped by better than expected GDP data. GBP/USD peaked at 1.2382 and while a brief correction was seen on the news Speaker Bercow (who helped enable Parliament to oppose a no deal Brexit) was to resign, it remained firm. UK PM Johnson visiting Ireland expressed optimism that a Brexit deal can be done, but Irish PM Varadkar said that no backstop mean no deal for them.
EUR/USD advanced as far as 1.1067 on a report that Germany was mulling a shadow budget that would enable spending beyond domestic limits. The USD was generally weaker, losing ground against most risk-sensitive currencies, while gaining a touch against the JPY in more risk positive markets. Equities giving up their gains saw USD/JPY briefly below 107.00 but UST yields continued to support.
Data Overnight:

UK GDP rose 0.3% in July, with all sectors showing m/m rises, making a Q2/Q3 recession very unlikely if July is left unrevised. The July goods trade deficit was slightly smaller than expected at 9.14bn. German trade data showed a larger than expected surplus of EUR20.2bn in July, helped both by a rise in exports and a decline in imports.
Data Ahead:

The Australian confidence data will be a focus on Tuesday. The RBA chose to wait and see in the September meeting, but the confidence data will be on RBA's watch list to look for any pass-through from monetary policy stimulus to the business sector as post-tax cut optimism has faded. Conditions in the retail sector are at recessionary levels, increasing the downside risk to retail sales numbers, and will be key to watch. In the absence of significant changes in risk tone, near-term sentiment on the AUD might depend on the data.

- VIX index: 15.00 (-7.81%)

- Gold Spot: $1,506.54/oz (-0.01%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $61.77 (+$0.23)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.88 (+$0.36)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.62 (+0.16%)

- 10y UST: 1.560% (+0bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,797.46 (+0.26%); S&P: 2,978.71 (+0.09%); Nasdaq: 8,103.07 (-0.17%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Japan's final print of Q2 GDP will be out today. There is likely some downward revision of the preliminary print to take into account the latest capital spending and household consumption data. August Economic watchers survey will be out on the same day.

US Jul consumer credit will be out today as well.

We expect a 0.1% fall in the UK July monthly GDP update (at least in m/m terms) an outcome which would be a repeat of the June outcome.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies saw gains against the USD on Monday, as dollar weakened following disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) data in August. IDR was the biggest winner, up 0.39% against the greenback. This was followed by KRW (0.32%), INR (0.26%), THB (0.11%) and PHP (0.10%). CNH and CNY were the biggest losers, down 0.32% and 0.25% respectively against the dollar, partially due to China's weak trade data in August. HKD, JPY, SGD and TWD were relatively unchanged. Malaysia's markets were closed on Monday due to a market holiday.

USD/CNH is retreating from the mild bid tone on Monday. Pair was last at 7.7.1195 after a week low of 7.0961 on Friday and a 7.1320 high on Monday. Next data point is China CPI and PPI data on Tuesday. This is likely to show elevated CPI pressures while factory prices fall again. Resistance of 7.1438 next to watch for.

1Y NDF remained last at 7.1851, within a narrow range during NY trading hours. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0851 vs. previous close of 7.1150. USD/CNY was slightly higher on Monday, last at 7.1333. For USDCNY, it is likely to trade above 7.1000. A test of 7.1500 psychological big figure may pose further upside risks to 3 September high of 7.1847.

USD/SGD was relatively stable, last at 1.3803. It held just above the 1.3800 big figure during Monday's Asian session. Risks, however, were tilted slightly to the downside following dollar weakness, which was accentuated by weak U.S. data in last week's session. Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's July retail sales data on Thursday. Eyes remain on the 1.3794 support. If broken, will turn our attention to the 1.3744 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDF was stabilizing last at 14079 during NY session. Onshore spot remained below the key 14100 mark on Monday, amid a downbeat NFP weighing on the USD. The downside was extended to sub-14080 levels seen but a drop to sub-14050 levels was only seen in the afternoon with the pair printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14030 at last look amid optimism around US-China trade talks and China's stimulus measures helping to contain the growth downside. Clear risk to 14025 support followed by the 14000 big figure, upside will now be contained by 14180/190 area.

During the NY session, USD/INR 1M NDF was last inching up to 72.12. The onshore spot traded with an offered tone at the start of the new week, slipping to fresh MTD lows of 71.500 from previous close of 71.720. A downbeat NFP print on Friday weighed on the dollar, and further China stimulus measures also boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal stimulus from FinMin Sitaraman kept the rupee in gains despite higher oil prices. Support at 71.375 is coming into view, break of which will open the doors for further correction to the 71 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

Taiwan exports rose 2.6% y/y from a 0.5% fall a month ago. Trade surplus also surprised on the upside.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's August CPI and PPI is released today, where we expect continued factory price deflation and elevated consumer price pressures from food.

China's August monetary data is also due sometime this week.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Exports (Jul) 4cast: 2.1% y/y [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.5]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Imports (Jul) 4cast: -4.1% y/y [Mkt: -5, Prev: -10.4]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: -3482USD mn [Mkt: -3327, Prev: -2473]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Conditions (Aug) [Prev: 2]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Sep) [Prev: 4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 2.6, Prev: 2.8]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: PPI (Aug) 4cast: -0.5% y/y [Mkt: -0.9, Prev: -0.3]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 3.9, Prev: 3.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Jul) 4cast: 3.7% 3m y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) 4cast: 104 [Mkt: 103.5, Prev: 104.7]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - CA: Housing Starts (Aug) 4cast: 215k [Mkt: 212.5, Prev: 222]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - CA: Building permits (Jul) [Mkt: 2, Prev: -3.7]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Unemployment (sa) (Aug) 4cast: 4% y/y [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - EU: ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result

15:30 GMT / 23:30 SGT - US: 52wk Bills Auction (USD 28bln)

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: 3yr Notes Auction (USD 38bln)


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:44 (GMT) 09 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 10 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

GBP weakened early in Europe but recovered strongly, helped by better than expected GDP data. GBP/USD peaked at 1.2382 and while a brief correction was seen on the news Speaker Bercow (who helped enable Parliament to oppose a no deal Brexit) was to resign, it remained firm. UK PM Johnson visiting Ireland expressed optimism that a Brexit deal can be done, but Irish PM Varadkar said that no backstop mean no deal for them.
EUR/USD advanced as far as 1.1067 on a report that Germany was mulling a shadow budget that would enable spending beyond domestic limits. The USD was generally weaker, losing ground against most risk-sensitive currencies, while gaining a touch against the JPY in more risk positive markets. Equities giving up their gains saw USD/JPY briefly below 107.00 but UST yields continued to support.
Data Overnight:

UK GDP rose 0.3% in July, with all sectors showing m/m rises, making a Q2/Q3 recession very unlikely if July is left unrevised. The July goods trade deficit was slightly smaller than expected at 9.14bn. German trade data showed a larger than expected surplus of EUR20.2bn in July, helped both by a rise in exports and a decline in imports.
Data Ahead:

The Australian confidence data will be a focus on Tuesday. The RBA chose to wait and see in the September meeting, but the confidence data will be on RBA's watch list to look for any pass-through from monetary policy stimulus to the business sector as post-tax cut optimism has faded. Conditions in the retail sector are at recessionary levels, increasing the downside risk to retail sales numbers, and will be key to watch. In the absence of significant changes in risk tone, near-term sentiment on the AUD might depend on the data.

- VIX index: 15.00 (-7.81%)

- Gold Spot: $1,506.54/oz (-0.01%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $61.77 (+$0.23)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.88 (+$0.36)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.62 (+0.16%)

- 10y UST: 1.560% (+0bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,797.46 (+0.26%); S&P: 2,978.71 (+0.09%); Nasdaq: 8,103.07 (-0.17%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Japan's final print of Q2 GDP will be out today. There is likely some downward revision of the preliminary print to take into account the latest capital spending and household consumption data. August Economic watchers survey will be out on the same day.

US Jul consumer credit will be out today as well.

We expect a 0.1% fall in the UK July monthly GDP update (at least in m/m terms) an outcome which would be a repeat of the June outcome.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies saw gains against the USD on Monday, as dollar weakened following disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) data in August. IDR was the biggest winner, up 0.39% against the greenback. This was followed by KRW (0.32%), INR (0.26%), THB (0.11%) and PHP (0.10%). CNH and CNY were the biggest losers, down 0.32% and 0.25% respectively against the dollar, partially due to China's weak trade data in August. HKD, JPY, SGD and TWD were relatively unchanged. Malaysia's markets were closed on Monday due to a market holiday.

USD/CNH is retreating from the mild bid tone on Monday. Pair was last at 7.7.1195 after a week low of 7.0961 on Friday and a 7.1320 high on Monday. Next data point is China CPI and PPI data on Tuesday. This is likely to show elevated CPI pressures while factory prices fall again. Resistance of 7.1438 next to watch for.

1Y NDF remained last at 7.1851, within a narrow range during NY trading hours. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0851 vs. previous close of 7.1150. USD/CNY was slightly higher on Monday, last at 7.1333. For USDCNY, it is likely to trade above 7.1000. A test of 7.1500 psychological big figure may pose further upside risks to 3 September high of 7.1847.

USD/SGD was relatively stable, last at 1.3803. It held just above the 1.3800 big figure during Monday's Asian session. Risks, however, were tilted slightly to the downside following dollar weakness, which was accentuated by weak U.S. data in last week's session. Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's July retail sales data on Thursday. Eyes remain on the 1.3794 support. If broken, will turn our attention to the 1.3744 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDF was stabilizing last at 14079 during NY session. Onshore spot remained below the key 14100 mark on Monday, amid a downbeat NFP weighing on the USD. The downside was extended to sub-14080 levels seen but a drop to sub-14050 levels was only seen in the afternoon with the pair printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14030 at last look amid optimism around US-China trade talks and China's stimulus measures helping to contain the growth downside. Clear risk to 14025 support followed by the 14000 big figure, upside will now be contained by 14180/190 area.

During the NY session, USD/INR 1M NDF was last inching up to 72.12. The onshore spot traded with an offered tone at the start of the new week, slipping to fresh MTD lows of 71.500 from previous close of 71.720. A downbeat NFP print on Friday weighed on the dollar, and further China stimulus measures also boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal stimulus from FinMin Sitaraman kept the rupee in gains despite higher oil prices. Support at 71.375 is coming into view, break of which will open the doors for further correction to the 71 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

Taiwan exports rose 2.6% y/y from a 0.5% fall a month ago. Trade surplus also surprised on the upside.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's August CPI and PPI is released today, where we expect continued factory price deflation and elevated consumer price pressures from food.

China's August monetary data is also due sometime this week.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Exports (Jul) 4cast: 2.1% y/y [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.5]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Imports (Jul) 4cast: -4.1% y/y [Mkt: -5, Prev: -10.4]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: -3482USD mn [Mkt: -3327, Prev: -2473]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Conditions (Aug) [Prev: 2]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Sep) [Prev: 4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 2.6, Prev: 2.8]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: PPI (Aug) 4cast: -0.5% y/y [Mkt: -0.9, Prev: -0.3]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 3.9, Prev: 3.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Jul) 4cast: 3.7% 3m y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) 4cast: 104 [Mkt: 103.5, Prev: 104.7]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - CA: Housing Starts (Aug) 4cast: 215k [Mkt: 212.5, Prev: 222]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - CA: Building permits (Jul) [Mkt: 2, Prev: -3.7]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Unemployment (sa) (Aug) 4cast: 4% y/y [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - EU: ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result

15:30 GMT / 23:30 SGT - US: 52wk Bills Auction (USD 28bln)

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: 3yr Notes Auction (USD 38bln)


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:44 (GMT) 09 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 10 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

GBP weakened early in Europe but recovered strongly, helped by better than expected GDP data. GBP/USD peaked at 1.2382 and while a brief correction was seen on the news Speaker Bercow (who helped enable Parliament to oppose a no deal Brexit) was to resign, it remained firm. UK PM Johnson visiting Ireland expressed optimism that a Brexit deal can be done, but Irish PM Varadkar said that no backstop mean no deal for them.
EUR/USD advanced as far as 1.1067 on a report that Germany was mulling a shadow budget that would enable spending beyond domestic limits. The USD was generally weaker, losing ground against most risk-sensitive currencies, while gaining a touch against the JPY in more risk positive markets. Equities giving up their gains saw USD/JPY briefly below 107.00 but UST yields continued to support.
Data Overnight:

UK GDP rose 0.3% in July, with all sectors showing m/m rises, making a Q2/Q3 recession very unlikely if July is left unrevised. The July goods trade deficit was slightly smaller than expected at 9.14bn. German trade data showed a larger than expected surplus of EUR20.2bn in July, helped both by a rise in exports and a decline in imports.
Data Ahead:

The Australian confidence data will be a focus on Tuesday. The RBA chose to wait and see in the September meeting, but the confidence data will be on RBA's watch list to look for any pass-through from monetary policy stimulus to the business sector as post-tax cut optimism has faded. Conditions in the retail sector are at recessionary levels, increasing the downside risk to retail sales numbers, and will be key to watch. In the absence of significant changes in risk tone, near-term sentiment on the AUD might depend on the data.

- VIX index: 15.00 (-7.81%)

- Gold Spot: $1,506.54/oz (-0.01%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $61.77 (+$0.23)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.88 (+$0.36)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.62 (+0.16%)

- 10y UST: 1.560% (+0bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,797.46 (+0.26%); S&P: 2,978.71 (+0.09%); Nasdaq: 8,103.07 (-0.17%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Japan's final print of Q2 GDP will be out today. There is likely some downward revision of the preliminary print to take into account the latest capital spending and household consumption data. August Economic watchers survey will be out on the same day.

US Jul consumer credit will be out today as well.

We expect a 0.1% fall in the UK July monthly GDP update (at least in m/m terms) an outcome which would be a repeat of the June outcome.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies saw gains against the USD on Monday, as dollar weakened following disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) data in August. IDR was the biggest winner, up 0.39% against the greenback. This was followed by KRW (0.32%), INR (0.26%), THB (0.11%) and PHP (0.10%). CNH and CNY were the biggest losers, down 0.32% and 0.25% respectively against the dollar, partially due to China's weak trade data in August. HKD, JPY, SGD and TWD were relatively unchanged. Malaysia's markets were closed on Monday due to a market holiday.

USD/CNH is retreating from the mild bid tone on Monday. Pair was last at 7.7.1195 after a week low of 7.0961 on Friday and a 7.1320 high on Monday. Next data point is China CPI and PPI data on Tuesday. This is likely to show elevated CPI pressures while factory prices fall again. Resistance of 7.1438 next to watch for.

1Y NDF remained last at 7.1851, within a narrow range during NY trading hours. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0851 vs. previous close of 7.1150. USD/CNY was slightly higher on Monday, last at 7.1333. For USDCNY, it is likely to trade above 7.1000. A test of 7.1500 psychological big figure may pose further upside risks to 3 September high of 7.1847.

USD/SGD was relatively stable, last at 1.3803. It held just above the 1.3800 big figure during Monday's Asian session. Risks, however, were tilted slightly to the downside following dollar weakness, which was accentuated by weak U.S. data in last week's session. Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's July retail sales data on Thursday. Eyes remain on the 1.3794 support. If broken, will turn our attention to the 1.3744 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDF was stabilizing last at 14079 during NY session. Onshore spot remained below the key 14100 mark on Monday, amid a downbeat NFP weighing on the USD. The downside was extended to sub-14080 levels seen but a drop to sub-14050 levels was only seen in the afternoon with the pair printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14030 at last look amid optimism around US-China trade talks and China's stimulus measures helping to contain the growth downside. Clear risk to 14025 support followed by the 14000 big figure, upside will now be contained by 14180/190 area.

During the NY session, USD/INR 1M NDF was last inching up to 72.12. The onshore spot traded with an offered tone at the start of the new week, slipping to fresh MTD lows of 71.500 from previous close of 71.720. A downbeat NFP print on Friday weighed on the dollar, and further China stimulus measures also boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal stimulus from FinMin Sitaraman kept the rupee in gains despite higher oil prices. Support at 71.375 is coming into view, break of which will open the doors for further correction to the 71 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

Taiwan exports rose 2.6% y/y from a 0.5% fall a month ago. Trade surplus also surprised on the upside.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's August CPI and PPI is released today, where we expect continued factory price deflation and elevated consumer price pressures from food.

China's August monetary data is also due sometime this week.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Exports (Jul) 4cast: 2.1% y/y [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.5]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Imports (Jul) 4cast: -4.1% y/y [Mkt: -5, Prev: -10.4]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: -3482USD mn [Mkt: -3327, Prev: -2473]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Conditions (Aug) [Prev: 2]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Sep) [Prev: 4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 2.6, Prev: 2.8]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: PPI (Aug) 4cast: -0.5% y/y [Mkt: -0.9, Prev: -0.3]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 3.9, Prev: 3.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Jul) 4cast: 3.7% 3m y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) 4cast: 104 [Mkt: 103.5, Prev: 104.7]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - CA: Housing Starts (Aug) 4cast: 215k [Mkt: 212.5, Prev: 222]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - CA: Building permits (Jul) [Mkt: 2, Prev: -3.7]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Unemployment (sa) (Aug) 4cast: 4% y/y [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - EU: ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result

15:30 GMT / 23:30 SGT - US: 52wk Bills Auction (USD 28bln)

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: 3yr Notes Auction (USD 38bln)


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:44 (GMT) 09 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 10 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

GBP weakened early in Europe but recovered strongly, helped by better than expected GDP data. GBP/USD peaked at 1.2382 and while a brief correction was seen on the news Speaker Bercow (who helped enable Parliament to oppose a no deal Brexit) was to resign, it remained firm. UK PM Johnson visiting Ireland expressed optimism that a Brexit deal can be done, but Irish PM Varadkar said that no backstop mean no deal for them.
EUR/USD advanced as far as 1.1067 on a report that Germany was mulling a shadow budget that would enable spending beyond domestic limits. The USD was generally weaker, losing ground against most risk-sensitive currencies, while gaining a touch against the JPY in more risk positive markets. Equities giving up their gains saw USD/JPY briefly below 107.00 but UST yields continued to support.
Data Overnight:

UK GDP rose 0.3% in July, with all sectors showing m/m rises, making a Q2/Q3 recession very unlikely if July is left unrevised. The July goods trade deficit was slightly smaller than expected at 9.14bn. German trade data showed a larger than expected surplus of EUR20.2bn in July, helped both by a rise in exports and a decline in imports.
Data Ahead:

The Australian confidence data will be a focus on Tuesday. The RBA chose to wait and see in the September meeting, but the confidence data will be on RBA's watch list to look for any pass-through from monetary policy stimulus to the business sector as post-tax cut optimism has faded. Conditions in the retail sector are at recessionary levels, increasing the downside risk to retail sales numbers, and will be key to watch. In the absence of significant changes in risk tone, near-term sentiment on the AUD might depend on the data.

- VIX index: 15.00 (-7.81%)

- Gold Spot: $1,506.54/oz (-0.01%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $61.77 (+$0.23)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.88 (+$0.36)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.62 (+0.16%)

- 10y UST: 1.560% (+0bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,797.46 (+0.26%); S&P: 2,978.71 (+0.09%); Nasdaq: 8,103.07 (-0.17%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Japan's final print of Q2 GDP will be out today. There is likely some downward revision of the preliminary print to take into account the latest capital spending and household consumption data. August Economic watchers survey will be out on the same day.

US Jul consumer credit will be out today as well.

We expect a 0.1% fall in the UK July monthly GDP update (at least in m/m terms) an outcome which would be a repeat of the June outcome.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies saw gains against the USD on Monday, as dollar weakened following disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) data in August. IDR was the biggest winner, up 0.39% against the greenback. This was followed by KRW (0.32%), INR (0.26%), THB (0.11%) and PHP (0.10%). CNH and CNY were the biggest losers, down 0.32% and 0.25% respectively against the dollar, partially due to China's weak trade data in August. HKD, JPY, SGD and TWD were relatively unchanged. Malaysia's markets were closed on Monday due to a market holiday.

USD/CNH is retreating from the mild bid tone on Monday. Pair was last at 7.7.1195 after a week low of 7.0961 on Friday and a 7.1320 high on Monday. Next data point is China CPI and PPI data on Tuesday. This is likely to show elevated CPI pressures while factory prices fall again. Resistance of 7.1438 next to watch for.

1Y NDF remained last at 7.1851, within a narrow range during NY trading hours. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0851 vs. previous close of 7.1150. USD/CNY was slightly higher on Monday, last at 7.1333. For USDCNY, it is likely to trade above 7.1000. A test of 7.1500 psychological big figure may pose further upside risks to 3 September high of 7.1847.

USD/SGD was relatively stable, last at 1.3803. It held just above the 1.3800 big figure during Monday's Asian session. Risks, however, were tilted slightly to the downside following dollar weakness, which was accentuated by weak U.S. data in last week's session. Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's July retail sales data on Thursday. Eyes remain on the 1.3794 support. If broken, will turn our attention to the 1.3744 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDF was stabilizing last at 14079 during NY session. Onshore spot remained below the key 14100 mark on Monday, amid a downbeat NFP weighing on the USD. The downside was extended to sub-14080 levels seen but a drop to sub-14050 levels was only seen in the afternoon with the pair printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14030 at last look amid optimism around US-China trade talks and China's stimulus measures helping to contain the growth downside. Clear risk to 14025 support followed by the 14000 big figure, upside will now be contained by 14180/190 area.

During the NY session, USD/INR 1M NDF was last inching up to 72.12. The onshore spot traded with an offered tone at the start of the new week, slipping to fresh MTD lows of 71.500 from previous close of 71.720. A downbeat NFP print on Friday weighed on the dollar, and further China stimulus measures also boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal stimulus from FinMin Sitaraman kept the rupee in gains despite higher oil prices. Support at 71.375 is coming into view, break of which will open the doors for further correction to the 71 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

Taiwan exports rose 2.6% y/y from a 0.5% fall a month ago. Trade surplus also surprised on the upside.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's August CPI and PPI is released today, where we expect continued factory price deflation and elevated consumer price pressures from food.

China's August monetary data is also due sometime this week.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Exports (Jul) 4cast: 2.1% y/y [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.5]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Imports (Jul) 4cast: -4.1% y/y [Mkt: -5, Prev: -10.4]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: -3482USD mn [Mkt: -3327, Prev: -2473]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Conditions (Aug) [Prev: 2]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Sep) [Prev: 4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 2.6, Prev: 2.8]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: PPI (Aug) 4cast: -0.5% y/y [Mkt: -0.9, Prev: -0.3]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 3.9, Prev: 3.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Jul) 4cast: 3.7% 3m y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) 4cast: 104 [Mkt: 103.5, Prev: 104.7]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - CA: Housing Starts (Aug) 4cast: 215k [Mkt: 212.5, Prev: 222]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - CA: Building permits (Jul) [Mkt: 2, Prev: -3.7]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Unemployment (sa) (Aug) 4cast: 4% y/y [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - EU: ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result

15:30 GMT / 23:30 SGT - US: 52wk Bills Auction (USD 28bln)

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: 3yr Notes Auction (USD 38bln)


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:44 (GMT) 09 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 10 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

GBP weakened early in Europe but recovered strongly, helped by better than expected GDP data. GBP/USD peaked at 1.2382 and while a brief correction was seen on the news Speaker Bercow (who helped enable Parliament to oppose a no deal Brexit) was to resign, it remained firm. UK PM Johnson visiting Ireland expressed optimism that a Brexit deal can be done, but Irish PM Varadkar said that no backstop mean no deal for them.
EUR/USD advanced as far as 1.1067 on a report that Germany was mulling a shadow budget that would enable spending beyond domestic limits. The USD was generally weaker, losing ground against most risk-sensitive currencies, while gaining a touch against the JPY in more risk positive markets. Equities giving up their gains saw USD/JPY briefly below 107.00 but UST yields continued to support.
Data Overnight:

UK GDP rose 0.3% in July, with all sectors showing m/m rises, making a Q2/Q3 recession very unlikely if July is left unrevised. The July goods trade deficit was slightly smaller than expected at 9.14bn. German trade data showed a larger than expected surplus of EUR20.2bn in July, helped both by a rise in exports and a decline in imports.
Data Ahead:

The Australian confidence data will be a focus on Tuesday. The RBA chose to wait and see in the September meeting, but the confidence data will be on RBA's watch list to look for any pass-through from monetary policy stimulus to the business sector as post-tax cut optimism has faded. Conditions in the retail sector are at recessionary levels, increasing the downside risk to retail sales numbers, and will be key to watch. In the absence of significant changes in risk tone, near-term sentiment on the AUD might depend on the data.

- VIX index: 15.00 (-7.81%)

- Gold Spot: $1,506.54/oz (-0.01%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $61.77 (+$0.23)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.88 (+$0.36)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.62 (+0.16%)

- 10y UST: 1.560% (+0bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,797.46 (+0.26%); S&P: 2,978.71 (+0.09%); Nasdaq: 8,103.07 (-0.17%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Japan's final print of Q2 GDP will be out today. There is likely some downward revision of the preliminary print to take into account the latest capital spending and household consumption data. August Economic watchers survey will be out on the same day.

US Jul consumer credit will be out today as well.

We expect a 0.1% fall in the UK July monthly GDP update (at least in m/m terms) an outcome which would be a repeat of the June outcome.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Majority of the Asian currencies saw gains against the USD on Monday, as dollar weakened following disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) data in August. IDR was the biggest winner, up 0.39% against the greenback. This was followed by KRW (0.32%), INR (0.26%), THB (0.11%) and PHP (0.10%). CNH and CNY were the biggest losers, down 0.32% and 0.25% respectively against the dollar, partially due to China's weak trade data in August. HKD, JPY, SGD and TWD were relatively unchanged. Malaysia's markets were closed on Monday due to a market holiday.

USD/CNH is retreating from the mild bid tone on Monday. Pair was last at 7.7.1195 after a week low of 7.0961 on Friday and a 7.1320 high on Monday. Next data point is China CPI and PPI data on Tuesday. This is likely to show elevated CPI pressures while factory prices fall again. Resistance of 7.1438 next to watch for.

1Y NDF remained last at 7.1851, within a narrow range during NY trading hours. On Monday, PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0851 vs. previous close of 7.1150. USD/CNY was slightly higher on Monday, last at 7.1333. For USDCNY, it is likely to trade above 7.1000. A test of 7.1500 psychological big figure may pose further upside risks to 3 September high of 7.1847.

USD/SGD was relatively stable, last at 1.3803. It held just above the 1.3800 big figure during Monday's Asian session. Risks, however, were tilted slightly to the downside following dollar weakness, which was accentuated by weak U.S. data in last week's session. Focus for the week ahead will be Singapore's July retail sales data on Thursday. Eyes remain on the 1.3794 support. If broken, will turn our attention to the 1.3744 support next.

USD/IDR 1M NDF was stabilizing last at 14079 during NY session. Onshore spot remained below the key 14100 mark on Monday, amid a downbeat NFP weighing on the USD. The downside was extended to sub-14080 levels seen but a drop to sub-14050 levels was only seen in the afternoon with the pair printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14030 at last look amid optimism around US-China trade talks and China's stimulus measures helping to contain the growth downside. Clear risk to 14025 support followed by the 14000 big figure, upside will now be contained by 14180/190 area.

During the NY session, USD/INR 1M NDF was last inching up to 72.12. The onshore spot traded with an offered tone at the start of the new week, slipping to fresh MTD lows of 71.500 from previous close of 71.720. A downbeat NFP print on Friday weighed on the dollar, and further China stimulus measures also boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal stimulus from FinMin Sitaraman kept the rupee in gains despite higher oil prices. Support at 71.375 is coming into view, break of which will open the doors for further correction to the 71 handle.

Data/Events Highlights:

Taiwan exports rose 2.6% y/y from a 0.5% fall a month ago. Trade surplus also surprised on the upside.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's August CPI and PPI is released today, where we expect continued factory price deflation and elevated consumer price pressures from food.

China's August monetary data is also due sometime this week.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Exports (Jul) 4cast: 2.1% y/y [Mkt: 1.9, Prev: 1.5]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Imports (Jul) 4cast: -4.1% y/y [Mkt: -5, Prev: -10.4]

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: -3482USD mn [Mkt: -3327, Prev: -2473]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Conditions (Aug) [Prev: 2]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Sep) [Prev: 4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 2.6, Prev: 2.8]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - CN: PPI (Aug) 4cast: -0.5% y/y [Mkt: -0.9, Prev: -0.3]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 3.9, Prev: 3.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - UK: Average Earnings (incl. bonus) (Jul) 4cast: 3.7% 3m y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - US: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) 4cast: 104 [Mkt: 103.5, Prev: 104.7]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - CA: Housing Starts (Aug) 4cast: 215k [Mkt: 212.5, Prev: 222]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - CA: Building permits (Jul) [Mkt: 2, Prev: -3.7]

23:00 GMT / 07:00 SGT - KR: Unemployment (sa) (Aug) 4cast: 4% y/y [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - EU: ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result

15:30 GMT / 23:30 SGT - US: 52wk Bills Auction (USD 28bln)

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: 3yr Notes Auction (USD 38bln)


Forex - India Flows: Rupee gains further despite higher oil


 05:09 (GMT) 09 Sep

 [Forex Flows]

USD/INR onshore spot traded with an offered tone at the start of the new week, slipping to fresh MTD lows of 71.530 in early trading from previous close of 71.720. A downbeat NFP print on Friday weighed on the dollar, and further China stimulus measures are supporting Asian currencies this morning. Meanwhile, hopes of further fiscal stimulus from FinMin Sitaraman kept the rupee in gains despite higher oil prices. Support at 71.375 is coming into view, break of which will open the doors for further correction to the 71 handle. 1M NDFs saw a rebound to 72+ levels earlier in the day, but were last seen back below the big figure. SENSEX in modest gains of over 0.3% at last check.


Forex - Flows: Singapore dollar horizonal moving from quiet day on the news front


 02:40 (GMT) 06 Sep

 [Forex Flows]

USD/SGD has remained relatively range bound on Friday. This comes as most Asia stock indices are up after opening. STI up 0.52%. Not much updates to move markets for the time being. USD/SGD last at 1.3842. A break of the 1.3900 will be needed to test the high of 1.3942 seen on 3 September. SGD NEER estimated at 0.836% above mid point.


Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 08:55 (GMT) 05 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

05 September 2019

Regional Backdrop:

News on US-China trade talks helped improve Asian currencies on Thursday. KRW was up 0.65%, leading the pack. INR (0.35%), TWD (0.30%), MYR (0.26%) also saw some gains. SGD and IDR underperformed, being slightly down in the session. In the Philippines, inflation eased to a three-year low in August, which helped weaken PHP by 0.05% for the session.

USD/CNH saw an offered tone continuing on Thursday. Pair went to 7.1216 low after being as high as 7.1900 48 hours ago. Pair last at 7.1402. China has announced that officials will travel to Washington early next month for talks. This has helped improve risk sentiment. Lower level talks will start ahead of these meetings. PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0852 vs. previous close of 7.1450. USD/CNY gapped lower, albeit slightly creeping up to 7.1340 at last look. 1Y NDF last at 7.1943.

Singapore dollar extended its rally for the second day, as sentiment improved on US-China trade news. The top trade negotiators from both sides are set to meet again in early October, and Chinese yuan rallied on the news. USD/SGD slipped to 1.3834 after a sharp fall yesterday. Based on our estimates, SGD NEER is currently at 0.87% above the midpoint.

USD/IDR onshore spot extended the downside to sub-14150 levels earlier on Thursday, printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14143. Risk-on mood continued after the manufacturing contraction on Tuesday as Fed Williams commented that the US economy is looking weaker than expected. Pair however moved back to 14160-levels in the afternoon.

USD/INR onshore spot gapped lower to open at 71.860 on Thursday from previous close of 72.115, slipping back below the key 72 handle. Pair printed lows of 71.850 in early trading and was last seen trading close to 71.900. Recovery in risk sentiment globally with more calls for Fed rate cuts and October trade talks on the horizon possibly helped the rupee.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - The break of 7.1390 support turns attention to next 7.0995 support. For USD/CNY, the move below will likely test 7.1000 big figure psychological support if it persists.

USD/SGD - Pair is likely to continue to be driven by trade headlines, with eyes on the support at 1.3800 level.

USD/IDR - Break of the 14170 support may take the pair to lows of 14122 if global risk-on mood prevails.

USD/INR - The downside below 72 remains shallow amid domestic headwinds. We do not see any risk to the 71.375 support.


Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 08:55 (GMT) 05 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

05 September 2019

Regional Backdrop:

News on US-China trade talks helped improve Asian currencies on Thursday. KRW was up 0.65%, leading the pack. INR (0.35%), TWD (0.30%), MYR (0.26%) also saw some gains. SGD and IDR underperformed, being slightly down in the session. In the Philippines, inflation eased to a three-year low in August, which helped weaken PHP by 0.05% for the session.

USD/CNH saw an offered tone continuing on Thursday. Pair went to 7.1216 low after being as high as 7.1900 48 hours ago. Pair last at 7.1402. China has announced that officials will travel to Washington early next month for talks. This has helped improve risk sentiment. Lower level talks will start ahead of these meetings. PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0852 vs. previous close of 7.1450. USD/CNY gapped lower, albeit slightly creeping up to 7.1340 at last look. 1Y NDF last at 7.1943.

Singapore dollar extended its rally for the second day, as sentiment improved on US-China trade news. The top trade negotiators from both sides are set to meet again in early October, and Chinese yuan rallied on the news. USD/SGD slipped to 1.3834 after a sharp fall yesterday. Based on our estimates, SGD NEER is currently at 0.87% above the midpoint.

USD/IDR onshore spot extended the downside to sub-14150 levels earlier on Thursday, printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14143. Risk-on mood continued after the manufacturing contraction on Tuesday as Fed Williams commented that the US economy is looking weaker than expected. Pair however moved back to 14160-levels in the afternoon.

USD/INR onshore spot gapped lower to open at 71.860 on Thursday from previous close of 72.115, slipping back below the key 72 handle. Pair printed lows of 71.850 in early trading and was last seen trading close to 71.900. Recovery in risk sentiment globally with more calls for Fed rate cuts and October trade talks on the horizon possibly helped the rupee.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - The break of 7.1390 support turns attention to next 7.0995 support. For USD/CNY, the move below will likely test 7.1000 big figure psychological support if it persists.

USD/SGD - Pair is likely to continue to be driven by trade headlines, with eyes on the support at 1.3800 level.

USD/IDR - Break of the 14170 support may take the pair to lows of 14122 if global risk-on mood prevails.

USD/INR - The downside below 72 remains shallow amid domestic headwinds. We do not see any risk to the 71.375 support.


Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 08:55 (GMT) 05 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

05 September 2019

Regional Backdrop:

News on US-China trade talks helped improve Asian currencies on Thursday. KRW was up 0.65%, leading the pack. INR (0.35%), TWD (0.30%), MYR (0.26%) also saw some gains. SGD and IDR underperformed, being slightly down in the session. In the Philippines, inflation eased to a three-year low in August, which helped weaken PHP by 0.05% for the session.

USD/CNH saw an offered tone continuing on Thursday. Pair went to 7.1216 low after being as high as 7.1900 48 hours ago. Pair last at 7.1402. China has announced that officials will travel to Washington early next month for talks. This has helped improve risk sentiment. Lower level talks will start ahead of these meetings. PBoC fixed mid-point at 7.0852 vs. previous close of 7.1450. USD/CNY gapped lower, albeit slightly creeping up to 7.1340 at last look. 1Y NDF last at 7.1943.

Singapore dollar extended its rally for the second day, as sentiment improved on US-China trade news. The top trade negotiators from both sides are set to meet again in early October, and Chinese yuan rallied on the news. USD/SGD slipped to 1.3834 after a sharp fall yesterday. Based on our estimates, SGD NEER is currently at 0.87% above the midpoint.

USD/IDR onshore spot extended the downside to sub-14150 levels earlier on Thursday, printing fresh over 1-month lows of 14143. Risk-on mood continued after the manufacturing contraction on Tuesday as Fed Williams commented that the US economy is looking weaker than expected. Pair however moved back to 14160-levels in the afternoon.

USD/INR onshore spot gapped lower to open at 71.860 on Thursday from previous close of 72.115, slipping back below the key 72 handle. Pair printed lows of 71.850 in early trading and was last seen trading close to 71.900. Recovery in risk sentiment globally with more calls for Fed rate cuts and October trade talks on the horizon possibly helped the rupee.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - The break of 7.1390 support turns attention to next 7.0995 support. For USD/CNY, the move below will likely test 7.1000 big figure psychological support if it persists.

USD/SGD - Pair is likely to continue to be driven by trade headlines, with eyes on the support at 1.3800 level.

USD/IDR - Break of the 14170 support may take the pair to lows of 14122 if global risk-on mood prevails.

USD/INR - The downside below 72 remains shallow amid domestic headwinds. We do not see any risk to the 71.375 support.


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 04 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 05 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Wednesday as Fed Williams said the economy looks weaker than expected. The index extended the drop to 98.405 into the NY close.

EUR and GBP led the gains with declining concerns about a no-deal Brexit reducing the risk premia applied to Europe. AUD also extended overnight gains as equity markets rose, while the JPY and CHF weakened on the crosses. However, EUR/CHF fell back again in the afternoon to make new 2 year lows while USD/JPY saw highs above 106.40 in North America.

The BoC left rates unchanged as expected, but their fairly balanced statement was a little less dovish than expected, leading the markets to see slightly less chance of an October rate cut, though this is still seen as close to a 50-50 chance. USD/CAD fell around 70 pips in an initial response extending later to over a big figure, assisted by gains in oil. AUD/CAD slipped back below .90 despite AUD/USD reaching .68.

Incoming ECB chief Lagarde said the EZ economy faces near term risks with inflation persistently too low. Highly accommodative policy warranted for a prolonged period, but said mindful of negative effects of unconventional policies.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Jul trade deficit fell to $54.0bn from %55.5bn vs $53.4bn exp.

- Fed's Williams said ready to act as appropriate.

- Bank of Canada left rates unchanged as exp, said trade conflict weighing more heavily than seen in Jul but also noted stronger than expected housing and rising wages.

- Fed's Beige Book said economy expanded at a modest pace.

- UK services PMI was weaker than expected, dropping to 50.6 in August, but this was broadly mid-range for the year. However, the drop in the composite PMI to 49.7 was the lowest since July 2016. The EZ composite PMI was revised slightly higher form the provisional estimate.

- VIX index: 17.33 (-11.85%)

- Gold Spot: $1,552.10/oz (-0.02%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $60.70 (+$2.44)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.09 ($-0.17)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.70 (+2.07%)

- 10y UST: 1.466% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,355.47 (+0.91%); S&P: 2,937.78 (+1.08%); Nasdaq: 7,976.88 (+1.30%)

Data/Events Ahead:

U.S. ADP private sector employment report is due today, and we expect a 140k increase. Weekly initial claims, final Q2 productivity and costs, and Jul factory orders will also be reported.

Eurozone construction PMI will be released.

In line with indications coming from survey data, we expect German businesses to have reported a 0.4% m/m fall in the number of orders in July.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Emerging Asia currencies had a relief rally on Wednesday. PHP and KRW gained 0.79% and 0.63% respectively. IDR (+0.48%), CNY (+0.46%) and SGD (+0.44%) followed. HKD strengthened and equity markets rallied following withdrawal of the extradition bill by HK Chief Executive Carrie Lam. Malaysia's trade data was stronger than expected, helping the MYR higher by 0.38% in the current session.

USD/CNH extended its losses on Thursday and fell to sub-7.1500 levels in late NY hours. 7.2000 resistance still key for any upsides. Support at 7.1437. China's stable CNY fixing remains the mitigating factor against volatility. USD/CNY onshore spot traded with a downside bias on Wednesday, printing lows of 7.1450 into the close. For USD/CNY, we see pair remaining mostly at the 7.1400-7.1800 range for the time being. 1Y NDFs also continued to be offered overnight on Wednesday, and was last seen testing the downside at 7.2100.

USD/SGD inched below the 1.3900 handle early on Wednesday and was sold off further to 1.3840-levels in late NY hours. The Monetary Authority of Singapore released a survey report on Wednesday, which indicated a lower market estimate for Singapore's 2019 economic growth at 0.6%. We expect pair to eye the 1.3836 support next but the downside remains fragile.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs slid below 14200 on Wednesday amid risk-on mood in the markets. Onshore spot traded a notch lower on Wednesday morning as the USD softened overnight after the ISM manufacturing data release. But a break below 14200 was only seen in the afternoon and the losses were extended after reports of HK extradition bill withdrawal. Pair printed over 1-month lows of 14160. Break of the 14170 support may take the pair to lows of 14122 if global risk-on mood prevails.

USD/INR 1M NDFs slid below 72.500 to trade around 72.300 in NY hours, remaining cautious of the gains in the rupee. Onshore spot gapped lower to open at 72.185 on Wednesday from previous close of 72.400 and YTD highs of 72.400 printed on Tuesday. Pair traded close to 72.200 levels in the morning as risk-on sentiment returned with US manufacturing slipping into contractionary territory. Pair extended the slide further in the afternoon and was seen testing the 72 handle but returned higher to close at 72.115. Some slippage below 72 may be seen but we do not see any risk to the 71.375 support.

Data/Events Highlights:

Malaysia's July export and import growth surprised on the upside as they were stronger than expected at 1.7% y/y and -5.9% y/y respectively. This led to an expansion of trade surplus to MYR 14.27 bn.

HK leader Carrie Lam withdrew the extradition bill, helping the recovery in equity markets, but did not accede to any of the other demands of the protesters.

Data/Events Ahead:

Philippines' August inflation is due on Thursday and we expect a modest deceleration to 2.2% y/y from 2.4% y/y previously.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.2% y/y [Mkt: 1.8, Prev: 2.4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: 5780 AUD mn [Mkt: 7000, Prev: 8036]

03:30 GMT / 11:30 SGT - TH: Consumer Confidence (Aug) [Prev: 75]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - US: ADP Employment Survey (Aug) 4cast: 140 k [Mkt: 146, Prev: 156]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Unit Labor Costs (Q2 F) [Mkt: 2.5, Prev: 2.4]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Non Farm Productivity (Q2 F) [Mkt: 2.3, Prev: 2.3]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (31-Aug) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 215]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Durable Ex Transportation (Jul F) [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Durable Goods Orders (Jul F) [Mkt: 2.1, Prev: 2.1]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Factory Orders (Jul) [Mkt: 1, Prev: 0.6]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug) 4cast: 54.5 [Mkt: 54, Prev: 53.7]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

03:35 GMT / 11:35 SGT - JP: 30yr Bonds Auction

07:00 GMT / 15:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in Frankfurt

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: 2025 Bond Auction (GBP 3bln)

16:00 GMT / 00:00 SGT - CA: Bank of Canada's Schembri speaks in Nova Scotia


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 04 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 05 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Wednesday as Fed Williams said the economy looks weaker than expected. The index extended the drop to 98.405 into the NY close.

EUR and GBP led the gains with declining concerns about a no-deal Brexit reducing the risk premia applied to Europe. AUD also extended overnight gains as equity markets rose, while the JPY and CHF weakened on the crosses. However, EUR/CHF fell back again in the afternoon to make new 2 year lows while USD/JPY saw highs above 106.40 in North America.

The BoC left rates unchanged as expected, but their fairly balanced statement was a little less dovish than expected, leading the markets to see slightly less chance of an October rate cut, though this is still seen as close to a 50-50 chance. USD/CAD fell around 70 pips in an initial response extending later to over a big figure, assisted by gains in oil. AUD/CAD slipped back below .90 despite AUD/USD reaching .68.

Incoming ECB chief Lagarde said the EZ economy faces near term risks with inflation persistently too low. Highly accommodative policy warranted for a prolonged period, but said mindful of negative effects of unconventional policies.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Jul trade deficit fell to $54.0bn from %55.5bn vs $53.4bn exp.

- Fed's Williams said ready to act as appropriate.

- Bank of Canada left rates unchanged as exp, said trade conflict weighing more heavily than seen in Jul but also noted stronger than expected housing and rising wages.

- Fed's Beige Book said economy expanded at a modest pace.

- UK services PMI was weaker than expected, dropping to 50.6 in August, but this was broadly mid-range for the year. However, the drop in the composite PMI to 49.7 was the lowest since July 2016. The EZ composite PMI was revised slightly higher form the provisional estimate.

- VIX index: 17.33 (-11.85%)

- Gold Spot: $1,552.10/oz (-0.02%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $60.70 (+$2.44)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.09 ($-0.17)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.70 (+2.07%)

- 10y UST: 1.466% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,355.47 (+0.91%); S&P: 2,937.78 (+1.08%); Nasdaq: 7,976.88 (+1.30%)

Data/Events Ahead:

U.S. ADP private sector employment report is due today, and we expect a 140k increase. Weekly initial claims, final Q2 productivity and costs, and Jul factory orders will also be reported.

Eurozone construction PMI will be released.

In line with indications coming from survey data, we expect German businesses to have reported a 0.4% m/m fall in the number of orders in July.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Emerging Asia currencies had a relief rally on Wednesday. PHP and KRW gained 0.79% and 0.63% respectively. IDR (+0.48%), CNY (+0.46%) and SGD (+0.44%) followed. HKD strengthened and equity markets rallied following withdrawal of the extradition bill by HK Chief Executive Carrie Lam. Malaysia's trade data was stronger than expected, helping the MYR higher by 0.38% in the current session.

USD/CNH extended its losses on Thursday and fell to sub-7.1500 levels in late NY hours. 7.2000 resistance still key for any upsides. Support at 7.1437. China's stable CNY fixing remains the mitigating factor against volatility. USD/CNY onshore spot traded with a downside bias on Wednesday, printing lows of 7.1450 into the close. For USD/CNY, we see pair remaining mostly at the 7.1400-7.1800 range for the time being. 1Y NDFs also continued to be offered overnight on Wednesday, and was last seen testing the downside at 7.2100.

USD/SGD inched below the 1.3900 handle early on Wednesday and was sold off further to 1.3840-levels in late NY hours. The Monetary Authority of Singapore released a survey report on Wednesday, which indicated a lower market estimate for Singapore's 2019 economic growth at 0.6%. We expect pair to eye the 1.3836 support next but the downside remains fragile.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs slid below 14200 on Wednesday amid risk-on mood in the markets. Onshore spot traded a notch lower on Wednesday morning as the USD softened overnight after the ISM manufacturing data release. But a break below 14200 was only seen in the afternoon and the losses were extended after reports of HK extradition bill withdrawal. Pair printed over 1-month lows of 14160. Break of the 14170 support may take the pair to lows of 14122 if global risk-on mood prevails.

USD/INR 1M NDFs slid below 72.500 to trade around 72.300 in NY hours, remaining cautious of the gains in the rupee. Onshore spot gapped lower to open at 72.185 on Wednesday from previous close of 72.400 and YTD highs of 72.400 printed on Tuesday. Pair traded close to 72.200 levels in the morning as risk-on sentiment returned with US manufacturing slipping into contractionary territory. Pair extended the slide further in the afternoon and was seen testing the 72 handle but returned higher to close at 72.115. Some slippage below 72 may be seen but we do not see any risk to the 71.375 support.

Data/Events Highlights:

Malaysia's July export and import growth surprised on the upside as they were stronger than expected at 1.7% y/y and -5.9% y/y respectively. This led to an expansion of trade surplus to MYR 14.27 bn.

HK leader Carrie Lam withdrew the extradition bill, helping the recovery in equity markets, but did not accede to any of the other demands of the protesters.

Data/Events Ahead:

Philippines' August inflation is due on Thursday and we expect a modest deceleration to 2.2% y/y from 2.4% y/y previously.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.2% y/y [Mkt: 1.8, Prev: 2.4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: 5780 AUD mn [Mkt: 7000, Prev: 8036]

03:30 GMT / 11:30 SGT - TH: Consumer Confidence (Aug) [Prev: 75]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - US: ADP Employment Survey (Aug) 4cast: 140 k [Mkt: 146, Prev: 156]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Unit Labor Costs (Q2 F) [Mkt: 2.5, Prev: 2.4]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Non Farm Productivity (Q2 F) [Mkt: 2.3, Prev: 2.3]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (31-Aug) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 215]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Durable Ex Transportation (Jul F) [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Durable Goods Orders (Jul F) [Mkt: 2.1, Prev: 2.1]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Factory Orders (Jul) [Mkt: 1, Prev: 0.6]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug) 4cast: 54.5 [Mkt: 54, Prev: 53.7]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

03:35 GMT / 11:35 SGT - JP: 30yr Bonds Auction

07:00 GMT / 15:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in Frankfurt

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: 2025 Bond Auction (GBP 3bln)

16:00 GMT / 00:00 SGT - CA: Bank of Canada's Schembri speaks in Nova Scotia


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 04 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 05 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Wednesday as Fed Williams said the economy looks weaker than expected. The index extended the drop to 98.405 into the NY close.

EUR and GBP led the gains with declining concerns about a no-deal Brexit reducing the risk premia applied to Europe. AUD also extended overnight gains as equity markets rose, while the JPY and CHF weakened on the crosses. However, EUR/CHF fell back again in the afternoon to make new 2 year lows while USD/JPY saw highs above 106.40 in North America.

The BoC left rates unchanged as expected, but their fairly balanced statement was a little less dovish than expected, leading the markets to see slightly less chance of an October rate cut, though this is still seen as close to a 50-50 chance. USD/CAD fell around 70 pips in an initial response extending later to over a big figure, assisted by gains in oil. AUD/CAD slipped back below .90 despite AUD/USD reaching .68.

Incoming ECB chief Lagarde said the EZ economy faces near term risks with inflation persistently too low. Highly accommodative policy warranted for a prolonged period, but said mindful of negative effects of unconventional policies.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Jul trade deficit fell to $54.0bn from %55.5bn vs $53.4bn exp.

- Fed's Williams said ready to act as appropriate.

- Bank of Canada left rates unchanged as exp, said trade conflict weighing more heavily than seen in Jul but also noted stronger than expected housing and rising wages.

- Fed's Beige Book said economy expanded at a modest pace.

- UK services PMI was weaker than expected, dropping to 50.6 in August, but this was broadly mid-range for the year. However, the drop in the composite PMI to 49.7 was the lowest since July 2016. The EZ composite PMI was revised slightly higher form the provisional estimate.

- VIX index: 17.33 (-11.85%)

- Gold Spot: $1,552.10/oz (-0.02%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $60.70 (+$2.44)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.09 ($-0.17)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.70 (+2.07%)

- 10y UST: 1.466% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,355.47 (+0.91%); S&P: 2,937.78 (+1.08%); Nasdaq: 7,976.88 (+1.30%)

Data/Events Ahead:

U.S. ADP private sector employment report is due today, and we expect a 140k increase. Weekly initial claims, final Q2 productivity and costs, and Jul factory orders will also be reported.

Eurozone construction PMI will be released.

In line with indications coming from survey data, we expect German businesses to have reported a 0.4% m/m fall in the number of orders in July.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Emerging Asia currencies had a relief rally on Wednesday. PHP and KRW gained 0.79% and 0.63% respectively. IDR (+0.48%), CNY (+0.46%) and SGD (+0.44%) followed. HKD strengthened and equity markets rallied following withdrawal of the extradition bill by HK Chief Executive Carrie Lam. Malaysia's trade data was stronger than expected, helping the MYR higher by 0.38% in the current session.

USD/CNH extended its losses on Thursday and fell to sub-7.1500 levels in late NY hours. 7.2000 resistance still key for any upsides. Support at 7.1437. China's stable CNY fixing remains the mitigating factor against volatility. USD/CNY onshore spot traded with a downside bias on Wednesday, printing lows of 7.1450 into the close. For USD/CNY, we see pair remaining mostly at the 7.1400-7.1800 range for the time being. 1Y NDFs also continued to be offered overnight on Wednesday, and was last seen testing the downside at 7.2100.

USD/SGD inched below the 1.3900 handle early on Wednesday and was sold off further to 1.3840-levels in late NY hours. The Monetary Authority of Singapore released a survey report on Wednesday, which indicated a lower market estimate for Singapore's 2019 economic growth at 0.6%. We expect pair to eye the 1.3836 support next but the downside remains fragile.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs slid below 14200 on Wednesday amid risk-on mood in the markets. Onshore spot traded a notch lower on Wednesday morning as the USD softened overnight after the ISM manufacturing data release. But a break below 14200 was only seen in the afternoon and the losses were extended after reports of HK extradition bill withdrawal. Pair printed over 1-month lows of 14160. Break of the 14170 support may take the pair to lows of 14122 if global risk-on mood prevails.

USD/INR 1M NDFs slid below 72.500 to trade around 72.300 in NY hours, remaining cautious of the gains in the rupee. Onshore spot gapped lower to open at 72.185 on Wednesday from previous close of 72.400 and YTD highs of 72.400 printed on Tuesday. Pair traded close to 72.200 levels in the morning as risk-on sentiment returned with US manufacturing slipping into contractionary territory. Pair extended the slide further in the afternoon and was seen testing the 72 handle but returned higher to close at 72.115. Some slippage below 72 may be seen but we do not see any risk to the 71.375 support.

Data/Events Highlights:

Malaysia's July export and import growth surprised on the upside as they were stronger than expected at 1.7% y/y and -5.9% y/y respectively. This led to an expansion of trade surplus to MYR 14.27 bn.

HK leader Carrie Lam withdrew the extradition bill, helping the recovery in equity markets, but did not accede to any of the other demands of the protesters.

Data/Events Ahead:

Philippines' August inflation is due on Thursday and we expect a modest deceleration to 2.2% y/y from 2.4% y/y previously.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.2% y/y [Mkt: 1.8, Prev: 2.4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: 5780 AUD mn [Mkt: 7000, Prev: 8036]

03:30 GMT / 11:30 SGT - TH: Consumer Confidence (Aug) [Prev: 75]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - US: ADP Employment Survey (Aug) 4cast: 140 k [Mkt: 146, Prev: 156]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Unit Labor Costs (Q2 F) [Mkt: 2.5, Prev: 2.4]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Non Farm Productivity (Q2 F) [Mkt: 2.3, Prev: 2.3]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (31-Aug) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 215]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Durable Ex Transportation (Jul F) [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Durable Goods Orders (Jul F) [Mkt: 2.1, Prev: 2.1]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Factory Orders (Jul) [Mkt: 1, Prev: 0.6]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug) 4cast: 54.5 [Mkt: 54, Prev: 53.7]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

03:35 GMT / 11:35 SGT - JP: 30yr Bonds Auction

07:00 GMT / 15:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in Frankfurt

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: 2025 Bond Auction (GBP 3bln)

16:00 GMT / 00:00 SGT - CA: Bank of Canada's Schembri speaks in Nova Scotia


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 04 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 05 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Wednesday as Fed Williams said the economy looks weaker than expected. The index extended the drop to 98.405 into the NY close.

EUR and GBP led the gains with declining concerns about a no-deal Brexit reducing the risk premia applied to Europe. AUD also extended overnight gains as equity markets rose, while the JPY and CHF weakened on the crosses. However, EUR/CHF fell back again in the afternoon to make new 2 year lows while USD/JPY saw highs above 106.40 in North America.

The BoC left rates unchanged as expected, but their fairly balanced statement was a little less dovish than expected, leading the markets to see slightly less chance of an October rate cut, though this is still seen as close to a 50-50 chance. USD/CAD fell around 70 pips in an initial response extending later to over a big figure, assisted by gains in oil. AUD/CAD slipped back below .90 despite AUD/USD reaching .68.

Incoming ECB chief Lagarde said the EZ economy faces near term risks with inflation persistently too low. Highly accommodative policy warranted for a prolonged period, but said mindful of negative effects of unconventional policies.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Jul trade deficit fell to $54.0bn from %55.5bn vs $53.4bn exp.

- Fed's Williams said ready to act as appropriate.

- Bank of Canada left rates unchanged as exp, said trade conflict weighing more heavily than seen in Jul but also noted stronger than expected housing and rising wages.

- Fed's Beige Book said economy expanded at a modest pace.

- UK services PMI was weaker than expected, dropping to 50.6 in August, but this was broadly mid-range for the year. However, the drop in the composite PMI to 49.7 was the lowest since July 2016. The EZ composite PMI was revised slightly higher form the provisional estimate.

- VIX index: 17.33 (-11.85%)

- Gold Spot: $1,552.10/oz (-0.02%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $60.70 (+$2.44)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.09 ($-0.17)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.70 (+2.07%)

- 10y UST: 1.466% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,355.47 (+0.91%); S&P: 2,937.78 (+1.08%); Nasdaq: 7,976.88 (+1.30%)

Data/Events Ahead:

U.S. ADP private sector employment report is due today, and we expect a 140k increase. Weekly initial claims, final Q2 productivity and costs, and Jul factory orders will also be reported.

Eurozone construction PMI will be released.

In line with indications coming from survey data, we expect German businesses to have reported a 0.4% m/m fall in the number of orders in July.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Emerging Asia currencies had a relief rally on Wednesday. PHP and KRW gained 0.79% and 0.63% respectively. IDR (+0.48%), CNY (+0.46%) and SGD (+0.44%) followed. HKD strengthened and equity markets rallied following withdrawal of the extradition bill by HK Chief Executive Carrie Lam. Malaysia's trade data was stronger than expected, helping the MYR higher by 0.38% in the current session.

USD/CNH extended its losses on Thursday and fell to sub-7.1500 levels in late NY hours. 7.2000 resistance still key for any upsides. Support at 7.1437. China's stable CNY fixing remains the mitigating factor against volatility. USD/CNY onshore spot traded with a downside bias on Wednesday, printing lows of 7.1450 into the close. For USD/CNY, we see pair remaining mostly at the 7.1400-7.1800 range for the time being. 1Y NDFs also continued to be offered overnight on Wednesday, and was last seen testing the downside at 7.2100.

USD/SGD inched below the 1.3900 handle early on Wednesday and was sold off further to 1.3840-levels in late NY hours. The Monetary Authority of Singapore released a survey report on Wednesday, which indicated a lower market estimate for Singapore's 2019 economic growth at 0.6%. We expect pair to eye the 1.3836 support next but the downside remains fragile.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs slid below 14200 on Wednesday amid risk-on mood in the markets. Onshore spot traded a notch lower on Wednesday morning as the USD softened overnight after the ISM manufacturing data release. But a break below 14200 was only seen in the afternoon and the losses were extended after reports of HK extradition bill withdrawal. Pair printed over 1-month lows of 14160. Break of the 14170 support may take the pair to lows of 14122 if global risk-on mood prevails.

USD/INR 1M NDFs slid below 72.500 to trade around 72.300 in NY hours, remaining cautious of the gains in the rupee. Onshore spot gapped lower to open at 72.185 on Wednesday from previous close of 72.400 and YTD highs of 72.400 printed on Tuesday. Pair traded close to 72.200 levels in the morning as risk-on sentiment returned with US manufacturing slipping into contractionary territory. Pair extended the slide further in the afternoon and was seen testing the 72 handle but returned higher to close at 72.115. Some slippage below 72 may be seen but we do not see any risk to the 71.375 support.

Data/Events Highlights:

Malaysia's July export and import growth surprised on the upside as they were stronger than expected at 1.7% y/y and -5.9% y/y respectively. This led to an expansion of trade surplus to MYR 14.27 bn.

HK leader Carrie Lam withdrew the extradition bill, helping the recovery in equity markets, but did not accede to any of the other demands of the protesters.

Data/Events Ahead:

Philippines' August inflation is due on Thursday and we expect a modest deceleration to 2.2% y/y from 2.4% y/y previously.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.2% y/y [Mkt: 1.8, Prev: 2.4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: 5780 AUD mn [Mkt: 7000, Prev: 8036]

03:30 GMT / 11:30 SGT - TH: Consumer Confidence (Aug) [Prev: 75]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - US: ADP Employment Survey (Aug) 4cast: 140 k [Mkt: 146, Prev: 156]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Unit Labor Costs (Q2 F) [Mkt: 2.5, Prev: 2.4]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Non Farm Productivity (Q2 F) [Mkt: 2.3, Prev: 2.3]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (31-Aug) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 215]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Durable Ex Transportation (Jul F) [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Durable Goods Orders (Jul F) [Mkt: 2.1, Prev: 2.1]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Factory Orders (Jul) [Mkt: 1, Prev: 0.6]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug) 4cast: 54.5 [Mkt: 54, Prev: 53.7]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

03:35 GMT / 11:35 SGT - JP: 30yr Bonds Auction

07:00 GMT / 15:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in Frankfurt

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: 2025 Bond Auction (GBP 3bln)

16:00 GMT / 00:00 SGT - CA: Bank of Canada's Schembri speaks in Nova Scotia


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 04 Sep

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 05 Sept 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Wednesday as Fed Williams said the economy looks weaker than expected. The index extended the drop to 98.405 into the NY close.

EUR and GBP led the gains with declining concerns about a no-deal Brexit reducing the risk premia applied to Europe. AUD also extended overnight gains as equity markets rose, while the JPY and CHF weakened on the crosses. However, EUR/CHF fell back again in the afternoon to make new 2 year lows while USD/JPY saw highs above 106.40 in North America.

The BoC left rates unchanged as expected, but their fairly balanced statement was a little less dovish than expected, leading the markets to see slightly less chance of an October rate cut, though this is still seen as close to a 50-50 chance. USD/CAD fell around 70 pips in an initial response extending later to over a big figure, assisted by gains in oil. AUD/CAD slipped back below .90 despite AUD/USD reaching .68.

Incoming ECB chief Lagarde said the EZ economy faces near term risks with inflation persistently too low. Highly accommodative policy warranted for a prolonged period, but said mindful of negative effects of unconventional policies.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Jul trade deficit fell to $54.0bn from %55.5bn vs $53.4bn exp.

- Fed's Williams said ready to act as appropriate.

- Bank of Canada left rates unchanged as exp, said trade conflict weighing more heavily than seen in Jul but also noted stronger than expected housing and rising wages.

- Fed's Beige Book said economy expanded at a modest pace.

- UK services PMI was weaker than expected, dropping to 50.6 in August, but this was broadly mid-range for the year. However, the drop in the composite PMI to 49.7 was the lowest since July 2016. The EZ composite PMI was revised slightly higher form the provisional estimate.

- VIX index: 17.33 (-11.85%)

- Gold Spot: $1,552.10/oz (-0.02%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $60.70 (+$2.44)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.09 ($-0.17)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 172.70 (+2.07%)

- 10y UST: 1.466% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 26,355.47 (+0.91%); S&P: 2,937.78 (+1.08%); Nasdaq: 7,976.88 (+1.30%)

Data/Events Ahead:

U.S. ADP private sector employment report is due today, and we expect a 140k increase. Weekly initial claims, final Q2 productivity and costs, and Jul factory orders will also be reported.

Eurozone construction PMI will be released.

In line with indications coming from survey data, we expect German businesses to have reported a 0.4% m/m fall in the number of orders in July.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Emerging Asia currencies had a relief rally on Wednesday. PHP and KRW gained 0.79% and 0.63% respectively. IDR (+0.48%), CNY (+0.46%) and SGD (+0.44%) followed. HKD strengthened and equity markets rallied following withdrawal of the extradition bill by HK Chief Executive Carrie Lam. Malaysia's trade data was stronger than expected, helping the MYR higher by 0.38% in the current session.

USD/CNH extended its losses on Thursday and fell to sub-7.1500 levels in late NY hours. 7.2000 resistance still key for any upsides. Support at 7.1437. China's stable CNY fixing remains the mitigating factor against volatility. USD/CNY onshore spot traded with a downside bias on Wednesday, printing lows of 7.1450 into the close. For USD/CNY, we see pair remaining mostly at the 7.1400-7.1800 range for the time being. 1Y NDFs also continued to be offered overnight on Wednesday, and was last seen testing the downside at 7.2100.

USD/SGD inched below the 1.3900 handle early on Wednesday and was sold off further to 1.3840-levels in late NY hours. The Monetary Authority of Singapore released a survey report on Wednesday, which indicated a lower market estimate for Singapore's 2019 economic growth at 0.6%. We expect pair to eye the 1.3836 support next but the downside remains fragile.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs slid below 14200 on Wednesday amid risk-on mood in the markets. Onshore spot traded a notch lower on Wednesday morning as the USD softened overnight after the ISM manufacturing data release. But a break below 14200 was only seen in the afternoon and the losses were extended after reports of HK extradition bill withdrawal. Pair printed over 1-month lows of 14160. Break of the 14170 support may take the pair to lows of 14122 if global risk-on mood prevails.

USD/INR 1M NDFs slid below 72.500 to trade around 72.300 in NY hours, remaining cautious of the gains in the rupee. Onshore spot gapped lower to open at 72.185 on Wednesday from previous close of 72.400 and YTD highs of 72.400 printed on Tuesday. Pair traded close to 72.200 levels in the morning as risk-on sentiment returned with US manufacturing slipping into contractionary territory. Pair extended the slide further in the afternoon and was seen testing the 72 handle but returned higher to close at 72.115. Some slippage below 72 may be seen but we do not see any risk to the 71.375 support.

Data/Events Highlights:

Malaysia's July export and import growth surprised on the upside as they were stronger than expected at 1.7% y/y and -5.9% y/y respectively. This led to an expansion of trade surplus to MYR 14.27 bn.

HK leader Carrie Lam withdrew the extradition bill, helping the recovery in equity markets, but did not accede to any of the other demands of the protesters.

Data/Events Ahead:

Philippines' August inflation is due on Thursday and we expect a modest deceleration to 2.2% y/y from 2.4% y/y previously.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

01:00 GMT / 09:00 SGT - PH: CPI (Aug) 4cast: 2.2% y/y [Mkt: 1.8, Prev: 2.4]

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: Trade Balance (Jul) 4cast: 5780 AUD mn [Mkt: 7000, Prev: 8036]

03:30 GMT / 11:30 SGT - TH: Consumer Confidence (Aug) [Prev: 75]

12:15 GMT / 20:15 SGT - US: ADP Employment Survey (Aug) 4cast: 140 k [Mkt: 146, Prev: 156]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Unit Labor Costs (Q2 F) [Mkt: 2.5, Prev: 2.4]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Non Farm Productivity (Q2 F) [Mkt: 2.3, Prev: 2.3]

12:30 GMT / 20:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (31-Aug) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 215]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Durable Ex Transportation (Jul F) [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Durable Goods Orders (Jul F) [Mkt: 2.1, Prev: 2.1]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Factory Orders (Jul) [Mkt: 1, Prev: 0.6]

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug) 4cast: 54.5 [Mkt: 54, Prev: 53.7]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

03:35 GMT / 11:35 SGT - JP: 30yr Bonds Auction

07:00 GMT / 15:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in Frankfurt

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: 2025 Bond Auction (GBP 3bln)

16:00 GMT / 00:00 SGT - CA: Bank of Canada's Schembri speaks in Nova Scotia


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