Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 08:50 (GMT) 12 Feb

  [Forex Highlights]

Sample Premium Content
Asia Close Highlights (0101-HVGF-C01)

12 February 2019

Regional Backdrop:

The Asian markets continued to wait for the US-China trade talk news, although stocks advanced on Tuesday as another US government shutdown was avoided. INR led the gains against the USD, up 0.53%, as the January inflation data was eyed. The Chinese yuan was also stronger after the drop on Monday. Singapore's December retail sales and Philippines' December exports disappointed, but both currencies recovered their knee-jerk losses.

USD/CNH saw a modest downmove from the 6.8000 handle to 6.7873 last. Pair likely moved by news that U.S. is finalising a deal on government funding and avoiding another shutdown. PBoC fixed mid-point at 6.7765 vs previous close of 6.7920. USD/CNY remains range bound with a modest crawl down to 6.7765. CNY/CNH gap more than 1 big figure. 1Y NDFs saw a move southwards to 6.8081 last.

USD/SGD saw a gradual decline during the Tuesday's Asian session, after failing to break above Monday's high at 1.3614. Pair is currently trading at an intra-day low at 1.3584. Singapore's retail sales saw a 6% y/y decline in December, worse than the 2.4% y/y decline in November. Pair attempted to break the 1.3600 level after the release, but strong resistance reverted the pair back on its downtrend for the day.

USD/IDR onshore spot gapped higher to open at 14085 on Tuesday after a bid tone in the USD the night before from a weaker GBP and trade talk concerns. Pair attempted a break above 14100 in early trading, but possible BI presence stalled the advance and a high of 14095 was seen before the pair turned lower to inch back to 14040 at last look. Investors are turning jittery about the upcoming US-China trade talks, with risks of these getting worse rather than better, which is prompting some risk averse trading. Indonesia's weak current account also keeps rupiah vulnerable.

USD/INR onshore spot opened barely changed at 71.1725 on Tuesday from previous close of 71.1650 despite the upside pressures from a stronger USD the night before. Pair defied the regional trend of generally weaker currencies and slid to 71.0200, as lower oil prices underpinned.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - Any moves beyond the 6.7495-6.8000 range should signal at further momentum downwards/upwards. Recent positive tone towards trade should keep USD/CNY below the psychological resistance of 6.8000.

USD/SGD - Eyes are on the 1.3545 support, if the downward pressure persists. But only a dip below the support, will signal a reversal. Otherwise, we expect the upward momentum to continue, with the pair trading between 1.3545-1.3615.

USD/IDR - Pair is likely to drift back below the key 14000 if January trade data at the end of the week shows some improvement.

USD/INR - Break of strong support at 70.855 is accelerating the downside momentum, but we see no risk to the next support at 70.3200.


Forex - Flows: Net Foreign Equity Flows on Mon


 23:50 (GMT) 11 Feb

Please view the story for more information...


Forex - Flows: Net Foreign Equity Flows on Mon


 23:50 (GMT) 11 Feb

Please view the story for more information...


Forex - Chart Roadmap 1-2 Day Technical Summary [KR SG TH ID TW PH]


 07:42 (GMT) 11 Feb

Please view the story for more information...


Forex - Chart Roadmap 1-2 Day Technical Summary [KR SG TH ID TW PH]


 07:42 (GMT) 11 Feb

Please view the story for more information...


Forex - India Preview: due 12-Feb - January CPI to remain near recent lows


 01:00 (GMT) 08 Feb

 [Economic Data]

India's January inflation print is scheduled for release after the close of markets on 12th February, and we expect CPI to remain near recent lows to come in at 2.25% y/y vs. 2.19% y/y in the preceding month. Food prices continued to weigh on headline inflation, although a lower base may help to offset some of the pressures. The rupee also remained weak against the USD in January, compared to gains in most of the other Asian currencies, which possibly lifted some of the pressure.

We expect a further recovery in headline inflation in the coming months, but it should continue to remain soft. Some inflationary impact is also seen from the populist budget announcement on Feb 1st. The central bank however delivered a surprise rate cut at the February meeting due to the persistent low inflation, and the March quarter inflation is expected to average around 2.8% y/y.


Forex - Flows: Net Foreign Equity Flows on Thu


 00:33 (GMT) 08 Feb

Please view the story for more information...


Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 09:12 (GMT) 07 Feb

 [Forex Highlights]

07 February 2019

Regional Backdrop:

Some Asian currencies weakened on Thursday as China and related markets were closed. KRW and IDR lost 0.45% and 0.39% respectively, while THB registered a 0.11% loss. MYR was the outperformer with 0.5% increase, while INR gained 0.1% on the back of a RBI cut. PHP, SGD, CNH strengthened a little. Markets were focused on earnings and US-China trade developments, with the US stating some progress in talks. RBI's surprise rate cut may signal towards a dovish shift in the region. This may affect currency movements as investors start to examine central bank stances in Asia more closely.

USD/CNH saw a slip to an intra-day low at 6.7698, before bouncing back up immediately to trade at 6.7846 at last look. China's markets remain closed for the long Lunar New Year holidays and will resume this upcoming Monday.

USD/SGD printed a 2-week high at 1.3564 at the beginning of Thursday's Asian session, before seeing a slip to an intra-day low at 1.3545. However, the slip was short-lived as pair rallied immediately to erase all the losses and was trading at 1.3557 at last look. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data will be out on Thursday NY hours. Markets are expecting the number of people filing for unemployment benefits to decline by 32,000 to 221,000. A positive labour data will exert additional upward pressure on the pair.

USD/IDR onshore spot gapped higher to open at 13930 on Thursday vs. previous close of 13920, and rallied to intraday highs of 13988 as the USD was bid the night before from a lower than expected trade deficit and a weaker EUR. A recovery in oil prices also weighed on IDR sentiment, and China onshore markets remain close this week for CNY. Pair however retreated slightly to move below 13980 into the close.

USD/INR onshore spot gapped higher to open at 71.7275 on Thursday vs. last close of 71.5525 amid gains in oil prices the previous night, as well as a stronger USD following the trade deficit contraction. Pair however peaked at 71.7500 soon after and traded lower to 71.6000 as the RBI decision was awaited. A knee-jerk t 71.3300 was seen after the surprise rate cut, but pair could not sustain the move below 71.50.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - Eyes are on the 6.7853 resistance next.

USD/SGD - Eyes are on the 1.3569 resistance, a break above will turn our attention to the 1.3600 resistance.

USD/IDR - Moves towards 14000 could prompt good opportunity to go long rupiah, with further trade talks eyed next week.

USD/INR - We believe the upside will remain in focus, although sellers above 72 should keep a consolidative tone in place for now.


Forex - Asia Close Highlights


 09:12 (GMT) 07 Feb

 [Forex Highlights]

07 February 2019

Regional Backdrop:

Some Asian currencies weakened on Thursday as China and related markets were closed. KRW and IDR lost 0.45% and 0.39% respectively, while THB registered a 0.11% loss. MYR was the outperformer with 0.5% increase, while INR gained 0.1% on the back of a RBI cut. PHP, SGD, CNH strengthened a little. Markets were focused on earnings and US-China trade developments, with the US stating some progress in talks. RBI's surprise rate cut may signal towards a dovish shift in the region. This may affect currency movements as investors start to examine central bank stances in Asia more closely.

USD/CNH saw a slip to an intra-day low at 6.7698, before bouncing back up immediately to trade at 6.7846 at last look. China's markets remain closed for the long Lunar New Year holidays and will resume this upcoming Monday.

USD/SGD printed a 2-week high at 1.3564 at the beginning of Thursday's Asian session, before seeing a slip to an intra-day low at 1.3545. However, the slip was short-lived as pair rallied immediately to erase all the losses and was trading at 1.3557 at last look. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data will be out on Thursday NY hours. Markets are expecting the number of people filing for unemployment benefits to decline by 32,000 to 221,000. A positive labour data will exert additional upward pressure on the pair.

USD/IDR onshore spot gapped higher to open at 13930 on Thursday vs. previous close of 13920, and rallied to intraday highs of 13988 as the USD was bid the night before from a lower than expected trade deficit and a weaker EUR. A recovery in oil prices also weighed on IDR sentiment, and China onshore markets remain close this week for CNY. Pair however retreated slightly to move below 13980 into the close.

USD/INR onshore spot gapped higher to open at 71.7275 on Thursday vs. last close of 71.5525 amid gains in oil prices the previous night, as well as a stronger USD following the trade deficit contraction. Pair however peaked at 71.7500 soon after and traded lower to 71.6000 as the RBI decision was awaited. A knee-jerk t 71.3300 was seen after the surprise rate cut, but pair could not sustain the move below 71.50.

Market Psychology

USD/CNH - Eyes are on the 6.7853 resistance next.

USD/SGD - Eyes are on the 1.3569 resistance, a break above will turn our attention to the 1.3600 resistance.

USD/IDR - Moves towards 14000 could prompt good opportunity to go long rupiah, with further trade talks eyed next week.

USD/INR - We believe the upside will remain in focus, although sellers above 72 should keep a consolidative tone in place for now.


CurrenciesCountriesMarket Bulletins

Latest Currency Analysis

Available to subscribers only
Order Now