Forex - Flows: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD - dollar inches back as risk has a more chilled morning


 09:06 (GMT) 19 May

  [Forex Flows]

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Part of the ultra fickleness of trade of late has been down to the dollar not quite knowing whether to go with the Trump saga, and any shifts in US Fed pricing back and forth, or whether to go with the broader risk backdrop and a USD bid from that. So from squeezing right back yesterday as the former cooled off a bit, the dollar is now seeping a bit again this morning as the risk market, including EM, has a more relaxed morning, Europe/USD in particular taking 1/2 % back, helped also by the pressure being off the crosses. Ultimately, traders are going to have to stay nibble as all the day to day the moving parts keep moving. If EUR/USD is to really shake things up then it would have to take out the recent 1.1170s highs (in which case techis would no doubt be flagging up that the last 3 uplegs this year have been a good 4-4.5 big figures - same on this leg would be approx to the Sep highs of 1.1250-80). AUD/USD meanwhile also up slightly with the dollar and commodity day action, but the .7473/92, prev lows to 0.75 remain key resistance in the Apr+ downswing.


Forex - Flows: USD/JPY sold back as bonds dip-bought; AUD has a mixed session, mixed views


 08:17 (GMT) 18 May

 [Forex Flows]

USD/JPY's bounce looking altogether flatter now as Europe buys the bond dip. Commodity currencies though less enthusiastic with USD/CAD inching above yesterday's highs, NZD/USD coming off the recent 0.695~ range cap since late April, and even AUD/USD, the best of the bunch, finding it hard work to hold onto the employment driven gains overnight - the market needs to regain the break of the recent highs seen on that data to look better. Copper coming off the recent bounce highs and USD/CNY also off its pullback lows making for a more mixed near-term story there. Still, AUD bulls that are in it more for the short-medium term will still be hanging their hopes on the notion that after China got more than it bet on with its shadow banking crackdown, that was a bit too successful, it's recent shift back to 'financial stability', again, extending its never-ending yo-yo stance, may eventually take the pressure off all things aussie and allow a better recovery again.