Forex - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Flows: EUR/USD in no rush; we still look for .9140 on EUR/GBP before thinking of 1.00 and beyond


 03:18 (GMT) 14 Aug

  [Forex Flows]

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Cable may be holding over 1.30 but it's the weak USD doing the lifting as EUR/GBP holds on to most of its recent gains even if it cannot yet hold on over .9100. EUR/USD meanwhile is not hurrying anywhere after stepping back up onto the 1.18 handle, the year to date high at 1.1910 still very much a possibility with plenty of US data to provide a catalyst even if the Eurozone calendar is again lacking promise. For GBP there is already a big call out there for 1.00 for EUR/GBP next year; we will look for that more immediate level at .9140 and take it from there.


Forex - Flows: DXY - spec most short dollar since Jan 13


 20:11 (GMT) 11 Aug

 [Forex Flows]

Despite today's dollar decline after the CPI data, it's worth taking note of the latest IMM data. Overall, the market is most dollar short since Jan 13. The DXY was at the range lows of the last 5 years at the time, and on the shorter horizon the dollar low that month gave way to a almost 6 figure rally over the next 5 months. You don't have to be a fan of the dollar to consider that the market has gone from medium-term stretched dollar bullish to potentially short/medium-term stretched dollar bearish. Meanwhile, net euro longs are at their highest since May 11. The euro trade weighed saw a 1 year peak that month and gave way to 17% decline over the next approx. year. That was during a long-term bear market so will have seen a more powerful downleg, but it still suggests we are due a corrective phase. The EUR TWI has been strongly outrunning its supporting annual uptrend and a correction would take the euro back around 5%.


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