Forex - Preview: due 8 Jan - US Dec ADP Employment

 16:00 (GMT) 31 Dec

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Preview: due 8 Jan - US Dec ADP Employment (0101-QKRY-C01)

We expect a 165k increase in Dec's ADP estimate of private sector employment growth. This would be an 8 month high to follow a 6 month low of 67k in Nov which sharply underperformed a 254k surge in private sector non-farm payrolls. Nov's non-farm payroll was inflated by 46k returning strikers at GM though even excluding that was a sharp outperformance of the ADP data. Oct's ADP gain of 121k was sharply below a 163k private payroll gain given that the later was depressed by strikers, when the ADP data was not.

Preview: due 8 Jan - US Dec ADP Employment (0101-QKRY-C02)

We expect ADP to see some catch up with payrolls in Dec but still to underperform, with our forecast for the latter being a 180k increase in the private sector, and 185k overall. Two components where the ADP looks particularly due for recovery are construction, given some recent positive housing sector data, and retail, which was well below trend as well as payroll retail data in Nov.

Preview: due 8 Jan - US Dec ADP Employment (0101-QKRY-C03)

There is risk that payroll revisions could bring the series lower in line with the ADP data though that may be more likely for Jan's payroll, when historic revisions are seen, rather than Dec where we will see only the usual two months of revisions for the non-farm payroll. The unemployment rate will see historic revisions in Dec's report however.

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