We expect a Q4 current account deficit of $130.8bn, up from $112.96bn in Q2 but still slightly below the recent high set in Q1 of $131.84bn. As a proportion of GDP the deficit will rise to 2.8% from 2.7%. For 2016 as a whole, the deficit will be 2.7% of GDP, up from 2.6% in 2015 and the widest since 2012.
Goods and services data has already been released with the monthly trade reports. A wider deficit in goods, correcting a narrowing in Q3 led by a temporary surge in farm exports, more than outweighed a rise in the services surplus. Data for primary (investment) and secondary (unilateral transfers) income is still unreleased, but data in the Fed's quarterly flow of funds report suggests slight deteriorations in both balances. DS