Forex - Brazil Preview: due February 15 - December Proxy GDP - We expect +0.2% m/m, +1.1% y/y


 14:53 (GMT) 08 Feb

  [Economic Data]

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Brazil Preview: due February 15 - December Proxy GDP - We expect +0.2% m/m, +1.1% y/y (0101-HWPC-C01)

December economic activity continues the shallow recovery after the turmoil in Q2-Q3. Industrial Production came at +0.2%m/m, -3.6%y/y while we expect broad retail sales at -0.7%m/m, +4.5%y/y. We are expecting services at -0.5%y/y. That leads to our estimate of +0.2%m/m, +1.1%y/y for December Proxy GDP. The index will close 1.0% above Dec 2017 level. Our forecast would bring Q4 GDP at 0.4%q/q, 2.0%y/y and 2018 at 1.4%. More importantly the carry for 2019 will be a large 1.2%, supporting the forecasts for a stronger GDP in 2019.


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