Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 17 Nov

  [Forex Highlights]

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Asia Overnight Highlights - 18 Nov 2019

MAJORS

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights (0101-PSXZ-C01)

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index extended the losses further on Friday amid a slide in US manufacturing indicators, even as some of the US-China trade deal optimism offset.

Supported by positive comments on US-China trade in the Asian session USD/JPY moved steadily higher, highs above 108.80. AUD/USD was also supported, moving above .68 though USD/CAD struggled to find direction. EUR/CHF continued its rebound from Thursday, getting close to 1.0950.

In the UK the Brexit Party was reported to stand down 43 candidates in non-Tory seats, further improving the market perception that Johnson might win a majority at the election. GBP/USD bounced above 1.29. EUR/GBP saw a low of .8548 but EUR/USD moved steadily higher from the mid-European morning, moving above 1.1050.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct retail sales +0.3% vs 0.2% exp, ex autos +0.2% vs 0.4% exp.

- US Nov Empire State manufacturing fell to 2.9 from 4.0 vs 6.0 exp.

- US Oct industrial production -0.8% vs -0.4% exp, manufacturing -0.6% vs -0.7% exp, manufacturing ex autos -0.1%.

- European data was thin on the ground, Oct Eurozone CPI confirmed at 1.2% and Sep's trade balance up to 18.7bn from 14.7bn, higher than expected.

- VIX index: 12.05 (-7.66%)

- Gold Spot: $1,468.07/oz (-0.02%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $63.25 ($-0.05)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.69 ($-0.03)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 181.00 (+0.51%)

- 10y UST: 1.831% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,004.89 (+0.80%); S&P: 3,120.46 (+0.77%); Nasdaq: 8,540.83 (+0.73%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Monday's data sees Nov's NAHB homebuilders' index and Sep Tics capital flows in the US.

UK Rightmove house price data may show another negative reading.

EMERGING ASIA

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights (0101-PSXZ-C02)

FX Highlights:

The week saw most Asian currencies weakened against the dollar. Cautious sentiment regarding the progress in the phase one US/China deal and worries over China's slowing economy continue to keep risk appetite in check. South Korean Won was seen leading losses, down by 0.80% against the dollar in the week. That was followed by INR (-0.7%), IDR (-0.45%), MYR (-0.43%), TWD (-0.40%), CNH (-0.29%), CNY (-0.17%) and SGD (-0.11%). Philippines peso was in mild losses of 0.30% against the greenback, and the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at its meeting in November. Thai baht was an outperformer, up by 0.54% against dollar.

USD/CNH managed to stay just above the 7 handle on Friday in the NY hours even as the USD was weaker. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot had meanwhile seen a dip below the 7 handle to 6.9982 on Friday but later rose to 7.0164 highs. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs saw a big drop earlier on Friday from near-7.1000 levels and remained below 7.0850 this morning.

USD/SGD tested a break above 1.3620 a few times on Friday but returned lower again, sliding to lows of 1.3600 in NY. Risk of break below 1.3600 handle is seen, but expect losses to be capped at 1.3558 support. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair to the 1.3647 resistance.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs dipped towards 14100 handle on Friday from 14150+ levels at the start of Friday's Asian session. Onshore spot gapped lower to open at 14055 on Friday from previous close of 14089, some downside pressures seen due to the surprise trade surplus in October trade data, but pair rose to 14070+ later. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now. Trade deal uncertainty however remains, and upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended the downside further on Friday, slipping to sub-71.900 levels from an open near 72.200 on Friday morning. Onshore spot retreated back below the 72 handle into the close on Thursday and opened at 71.800 on Friday. Pair remained close to the 71.800-levels on Friday. Authorities are under pressures to undertake economic reforms and support the dwindling economy, while global trade volatility also continues to weigh. The break below the 72 handle may still be fragile, and expect downside pressures to remain limited.

Data/Events Highlights:

Malaysia's Q3 GDP growth softened to a 13-quarter low of 4.4% y/y from 4.9% y/y in Q2 as the acceleration in domestic demand was unable to offset external pressures.

Indonesia's October exports continued to decline - down by 6.13% y/y - for a 12th consecutive month. Imports however weakened more sharply - down 16.39% y/y in October - reflecting weak domestic demand. But this helped trade balance to return to a small surplus of $161mn.

India's October exports decline was softer than market expectations at -1.1% y/y while imports were weaker at -16.3% y/y, resulting in a narrow trade deficit of USD 11.01bn.

Data/Events Ahead:

Singapore's October NODX and electronics exports will be released on Monday, and the final print of Q3 GDP is also due anytime from today through next Monday.

Thailand's Q3 GDP is also on tap today.

HK police have sealed off a university after an all-night stand-off with protestors, and there are rising fears of a crackdown.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

18-25 November: SG: GDP (Q3 F) 4cast: 0.3% y/y [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.1]

00:01 GMT / 08:01 SGT - UK: Rightmove House Price Index (Nov) % m/m [Prev: 0.6]

00:01 GMT / 08:01 SGT - UK: Rightmove House Price Index (Nov) % y/y [Prev: -0.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - SG: NODX - Electronics (Oct) 4cast: -25% y/y [Prev: -24.8]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - SG: NODX (Oct) 4cast: -12% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -8.1]

02:30 GMT / 10:30 SGT - TH: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 2.9% y/y [Mkt: 2.7, Prev: 2.3]

05:30 GMT / 13:30 SGT - JP: Tokyo Department Store (Oct) % y/y [Prev: 20.7]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: NAHB Builders survey (Nov) [Mkt: 71, Prev: 71]

21:00 GMT / 05:00 SGT - US: Net Long-term TICS Flows (Sep) USD bn [Prev: -41.1]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: Fed's Mester speaks in Maryland


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:47 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 15 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Thursday into the close of the NY session as doubts over the phase 1 trade deal between the US and China emerged again.

The risk negative tone continued to dominate, with the JPY and the CHF making gains and commodity currencies staying under pressure, if with a modest late correction. EUR/CHF hit its lowest level since October 2 at 1.0861.

USD/JPY broke below 108.50 more on falling UST yields than equities. The weakening USD tone saw GBP/USD bounce to near 1.2890, slightly outperforming EUR/USD gains to near 1.1025 with EUR/GBP lows below .8550. Mixed US data and Fed talk had little impact.

EUR/USD gains on the data were not sustained but fresh highs followed as the USD tone soured.

RBNZ Orr said room for rate cuts is still open. NZD/USD reversed from Oct PMI beat driven gains to 0.6385. AUD/USD remained weak following the labor market disappointment on Thursday, and was last seen 0.6785.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct PPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.3% vs 0.2% exp.

- US initial claims rose to 225k from 211k vs 215k exp.

- Fed's Powell said expansion on a sustainable footing.

- Q3 German GDP rose 0.1%, stronger than the expected 0.1% decline, and Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% as expected.

- UK retail sales at -0.1% in October were below expectations.

- VIX index: 13.05 (+0.38%)

- Gold Spot: $1,471.45/oz (+0.00%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.28 ($-0.09)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.89 (+$0.12)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.09 (-0.12%)

- 10y UST: 1.819% (-7bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,781.96 (-0.01%); S&P: 3,096.63 (+0.08%); Nasdaq: 8,479.02 (-0.04%)

Data/Events Ahead:

US Oct retail sales report may be the most significant data release of the week. We expect a 0.1% increase overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline. Nov Empire State manufacturing and Oct import price data are due alongside retail sales. Later on, we expect a 0.5% fall in Oct industrial production, with declines of 0.8% in manufacturing but only 0.2% in manufacturing excluding the strike-hit auto sector. Sep business inventories follow, and look set to rise by 0.1%.

Eurozone trade balance data for September and HICP inflation are due. With the flash HICP reading showing a softening to 0.7% y/y in headline terms for the month of October, down from 0.8% y/y in September and 2.3% y/y in October 2018. Core inflation edged higher, instead, rising to 1.1% from 1.0% in September.

Japan's September industrial production and capacity utilization figures will be released today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were a mixed bag on Thursday. The Philippines peso led gains, up by 0.28% against the greenback, after the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4%. That was followed by INR (+0.16%) as it reversed some of the initial losses. CNH (+0.16%) was also in gains despite concerns over the phase 1 trade deal and China activity data disappointment. On the flip side, TWD was down by 0.23% against the dollar. KRW lost 0.18%.

USD/CNH traded close to 7.0250 on Thursday but was seen inching lower to sub-7.0200 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD plummeted. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot stuck close to familiar levels on Thursday, trading between 7.0141 and 7.0252. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs reversed a drop to 7.0850 seen on Thursday and traded up to 7.1000 handle in NY but was again seen trading lower towards 7.0900 at last look.

USD/SGD was also seen trading with an offered tone to reverse from 1.3635 highs seen on Thursday to sub-1.3620 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD softened. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair further to the 1.3647 and 1.3662 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded on either side of 14150 on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction amid flip-flop trade announcements. Onshore spot rallied to the key 14100 level on Thursday morning from previous close of 14079 amid a slew of weak economic data releases in Asia. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now, and pair could only print highs of 14105. Upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended gains to 72.450 earlier on Thursday but was later seen easing to 72.200 levels. Onshore spot broke above the 72 handle into the close on Wednesday and continued to trade higher on Thursday to fresh 10-week highs of 72.240. Surge in October CPI was noteworthy, but core inflation remained weak and growth pressures suggest room for further RBI easing is still open. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair traded with a slight downside bias and was last seen below the 72 handle. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited unless fiscal push is seen.

Data/Events Highlights:

China's October activity data continued to be sluggish. IP came in at 4.7% y/y from 5.8% prior. Retail sales also dipped to 7.2% y/y from 7.8% a month ago.

BSP decided to keep rates unchanged.

India's October WPI slid further to 0.16% y/y from 0.33% y/y earlier.

Data/Events Ahead:

A heavy data calendar in Asia today. Malaysia's Q3 GDP and Indonesia's October trade data is reported around mid-day.

Final print of Hong Kong's Q3 GDP is also on tap in the afternoon.

India's October trade data and Philippines' September remittances will also be reported.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

IN: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -18% y/y [Prev: -13.8]

IN: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7% y/y [Prev: -6.6]

IN: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -11.077USD bn [Mkt: -11.83, Prev: -10.86]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 4.3% y/y [Mkt: 4.4, Prev: 4.9]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -6.5% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -5.74]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -13% y/y [Mkt: -14.85, Prev: -2.41]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -511USD mn [Mkt: -400, Prev: -160]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.1]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (Sep) [Prev: -2.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - HK: GDP (3Q F) [Prev: -2.9]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: HICP - Core (Oct Final) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: CPI (Oct Final) [Mkt: 0.7, Prev: 0.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (Sep) [Mkt: 18.7, Prev: 20.3]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4.6]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 2349, Prev: 2.589]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Empire State Survey (Nov) [Mkt: 6, Prev: 4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (ex Autos) (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Import Price Index (Oct) [Mkt: -0.1, Prev: 0.2]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Capacity Utilization (Oct) 4cast: 77% [Mkt: 77, Prev: 77.5]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Industrial production (Oct) 4cast: -0.5% m/m [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Business Inventories (Sep) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - CA: Existing Home Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 1.3, Prev: 0.6]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney

02:45 GMT / 10:45 SGT - CA: BoC Governor Poloz speaks in San Francisco


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:47 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 15 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Thursday into the close of the NY session as doubts over the phase 1 trade deal between the US and China emerged again.

The risk negative tone continued to dominate, with the JPY and the CHF making gains and commodity currencies staying under pressure, if with a modest late correction. EUR/CHF hit its lowest level since October 2 at 1.0861.

USD/JPY broke below 108.50 more on falling UST yields than equities. The weakening USD tone saw GBP/USD bounce to near 1.2890, slightly outperforming EUR/USD gains to near 1.1025 with EUR/GBP lows below .8550. Mixed US data and Fed talk had little impact.

EUR/USD gains on the data were not sustained but fresh highs followed as the USD tone soured.

RBNZ Orr said room for rate cuts is still open. NZD/USD reversed from Oct PMI beat driven gains to 0.6385. AUD/USD remained weak following the labor market disappointment on Thursday, and was last seen 0.6785.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct PPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.3% vs 0.2% exp.

- US initial claims rose to 225k from 211k vs 215k exp.

- Fed's Powell said expansion on a sustainable footing.

- Q3 German GDP rose 0.1%, stronger than the expected 0.1% decline, and Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% as expected.

- UK retail sales at -0.1% in October were below expectations.

- VIX index: 13.05 (+0.38%)

- Gold Spot: $1,471.45/oz (+0.00%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.28 ($-0.09)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.89 (+$0.12)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.09 (-0.12%)

- 10y UST: 1.819% (-7bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,781.96 (-0.01%); S&P: 3,096.63 (+0.08%); Nasdaq: 8,479.02 (-0.04%)

Data/Events Ahead:

US Oct retail sales report may be the most significant data release of the week. We expect a 0.1% increase overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline. Nov Empire State manufacturing and Oct import price data are due alongside retail sales. Later on, we expect a 0.5% fall in Oct industrial production, with declines of 0.8% in manufacturing but only 0.2% in manufacturing excluding the strike-hit auto sector. Sep business inventories follow, and look set to rise by 0.1%.

Eurozone trade balance data for September and HICP inflation are due. With the flash HICP reading showing a softening to 0.7% y/y in headline terms for the month of October, down from 0.8% y/y in September and 2.3% y/y in October 2018. Core inflation edged higher, instead, rising to 1.1% from 1.0% in September.

Japan's September industrial production and capacity utilization figures will be released today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were a mixed bag on Thursday. The Philippines peso led gains, up by 0.28% against the greenback, after the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4%. That was followed by INR (+0.16%) as it reversed some of the initial losses. CNH (+0.16%) was also in gains despite concerns over the phase 1 trade deal and China activity data disappointment. On the flip side, TWD was down by 0.23% against the dollar. KRW lost 0.18%.

USD/CNH traded close to 7.0250 on Thursday but was seen inching lower to sub-7.0200 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD plummeted. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot stuck close to familiar levels on Thursday, trading between 7.0141 and 7.0252. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs reversed a drop to 7.0850 seen on Thursday and traded up to 7.1000 handle in NY but was again seen trading lower towards 7.0900 at last look.

USD/SGD was also seen trading with an offered tone to reverse from 1.3635 highs seen on Thursday to sub-1.3620 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD softened. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair further to the 1.3647 and 1.3662 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded on either side of 14150 on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction amid flip-flop trade announcements. Onshore spot rallied to the key 14100 level on Thursday morning from previous close of 14079 amid a slew of weak economic data releases in Asia. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now, and pair could only print highs of 14105. Upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended gains to 72.450 earlier on Thursday but was later seen easing to 72.200 levels. Onshore spot broke above the 72 handle into the close on Wednesday and continued to trade higher on Thursday to fresh 10-week highs of 72.240. Surge in October CPI was noteworthy, but core inflation remained weak and growth pressures suggest room for further RBI easing is still open. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair traded with a slight downside bias and was last seen below the 72 handle. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited unless fiscal push is seen.

Data/Events Highlights:

China's October activity data continued to be sluggish. IP came in at 4.7% y/y from 5.8% prior. Retail sales also dipped to 7.2% y/y from 7.8% a month ago.

BSP decided to keep rates unchanged.

India's October WPI slid further to 0.16% y/y from 0.33% y/y earlier.

Data/Events Ahead:

A heavy data calendar in Asia today. Malaysia's Q3 GDP and Indonesia's October trade data is reported around mid-day.

Final print of Hong Kong's Q3 GDP is also on tap in the afternoon.

India's October trade data and Philippines' September remittances will also be reported.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

IN: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -18% y/y [Prev: -13.8]

IN: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7% y/y [Prev: -6.6]

IN: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -11.077USD bn [Mkt: -11.83, Prev: -10.86]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 4.3% y/y [Mkt: 4.4, Prev: 4.9]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -6.5% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -5.74]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -13% y/y [Mkt: -14.85, Prev: -2.41]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -511USD mn [Mkt: -400, Prev: -160]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.1]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (Sep) [Prev: -2.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - HK: GDP (3Q F) [Prev: -2.9]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: HICP - Core (Oct Final) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: CPI (Oct Final) [Mkt: 0.7, Prev: 0.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (Sep) [Mkt: 18.7, Prev: 20.3]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4.6]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 2349, Prev: 2.589]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Empire State Survey (Nov) [Mkt: 6, Prev: 4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (ex Autos) (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Import Price Index (Oct) [Mkt: -0.1, Prev: 0.2]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Capacity Utilization (Oct) 4cast: 77% [Mkt: 77, Prev: 77.5]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Industrial production (Oct) 4cast: -0.5% m/m [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Business Inventories (Sep) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - CA: Existing Home Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 1.3, Prev: 0.6]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney

02:45 GMT / 10:45 SGT - CA: BoC Governor Poloz speaks in San Francisco


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:47 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 15 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Thursday into the close of the NY session as doubts over the phase 1 trade deal between the US and China emerged again.

The risk negative tone continued to dominate, with the JPY and the CHF making gains and commodity currencies staying under pressure, if with a modest late correction. EUR/CHF hit its lowest level since October 2 at 1.0861.

USD/JPY broke below 108.50 more on falling UST yields than equities. The weakening USD tone saw GBP/USD bounce to near 1.2890, slightly outperforming EUR/USD gains to near 1.1025 with EUR/GBP lows below .8550. Mixed US data and Fed talk had little impact.

EUR/USD gains on the data were not sustained but fresh highs followed as the USD tone soured.

RBNZ Orr said room for rate cuts is still open. NZD/USD reversed from Oct PMI beat driven gains to 0.6385. AUD/USD remained weak following the labor market disappointment on Thursday, and was last seen 0.6785.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct PPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.3% vs 0.2% exp.

- US initial claims rose to 225k from 211k vs 215k exp.

- Fed's Powell said expansion on a sustainable footing.

- Q3 German GDP rose 0.1%, stronger than the expected 0.1% decline, and Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% as expected.

- UK retail sales at -0.1% in October were below expectations.

- VIX index: 13.05 (+0.38%)

- Gold Spot: $1,471.45/oz (+0.00%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.28 ($-0.09)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.89 (+$0.12)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.09 (-0.12%)

- 10y UST: 1.819% (-7bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,781.96 (-0.01%); S&P: 3,096.63 (+0.08%); Nasdaq: 8,479.02 (-0.04%)

Data/Events Ahead:

US Oct retail sales report may be the most significant data release of the week. We expect a 0.1% increase overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline. Nov Empire State manufacturing and Oct import price data are due alongside retail sales. Later on, we expect a 0.5% fall in Oct industrial production, with declines of 0.8% in manufacturing but only 0.2% in manufacturing excluding the strike-hit auto sector. Sep business inventories follow, and look set to rise by 0.1%.

Eurozone trade balance data for September and HICP inflation are due. With the flash HICP reading showing a softening to 0.7% y/y in headline terms for the month of October, down from 0.8% y/y in September and 2.3% y/y in October 2018. Core inflation edged higher, instead, rising to 1.1% from 1.0% in September.

Japan's September industrial production and capacity utilization figures will be released today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were a mixed bag on Thursday. The Philippines peso led gains, up by 0.28% against the greenback, after the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4%. That was followed by INR (+0.16%) as it reversed some of the initial losses. CNH (+0.16%) was also in gains despite concerns over the phase 1 trade deal and China activity data disappointment. On the flip side, TWD was down by 0.23% against the dollar. KRW lost 0.18%.

USD/CNH traded close to 7.0250 on Thursday but was seen inching lower to sub-7.0200 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD plummeted. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot stuck close to familiar levels on Thursday, trading between 7.0141 and 7.0252. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs reversed a drop to 7.0850 seen on Thursday and traded up to 7.1000 handle in NY but was again seen trading lower towards 7.0900 at last look.

USD/SGD was also seen trading with an offered tone to reverse from 1.3635 highs seen on Thursday to sub-1.3620 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD softened. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair further to the 1.3647 and 1.3662 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded on either side of 14150 on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction amid flip-flop trade announcements. Onshore spot rallied to the key 14100 level on Thursday morning from previous close of 14079 amid a slew of weak economic data releases in Asia. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now, and pair could only print highs of 14105. Upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended gains to 72.450 earlier on Thursday but was later seen easing to 72.200 levels. Onshore spot broke above the 72 handle into the close on Wednesday and continued to trade higher on Thursday to fresh 10-week highs of 72.240. Surge in October CPI was noteworthy, but core inflation remained weak and growth pressures suggest room for further RBI easing is still open. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair traded with a slight downside bias and was last seen below the 72 handle. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited unless fiscal push is seen.

Data/Events Highlights:

China's October activity data continued to be sluggish. IP came in at 4.7% y/y from 5.8% prior. Retail sales also dipped to 7.2% y/y from 7.8% a month ago.

BSP decided to keep rates unchanged.

India's October WPI slid further to 0.16% y/y from 0.33% y/y earlier.

Data/Events Ahead:

A heavy data calendar in Asia today. Malaysia's Q3 GDP and Indonesia's October trade data is reported around mid-day.

Final print of Hong Kong's Q3 GDP is also on tap in the afternoon.

India's October trade data and Philippines' September remittances will also be reported.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

IN: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -18% y/y [Prev: -13.8]

IN: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7% y/y [Prev: -6.6]

IN: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -11.077USD bn [Mkt: -11.83, Prev: -10.86]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 4.3% y/y [Mkt: 4.4, Prev: 4.9]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -6.5% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -5.74]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -13% y/y [Mkt: -14.85, Prev: -2.41]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -511USD mn [Mkt: -400, Prev: -160]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.1]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (Sep) [Prev: -2.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - HK: GDP (3Q F) [Prev: -2.9]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: HICP - Core (Oct Final) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: CPI (Oct Final) [Mkt: 0.7, Prev: 0.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (Sep) [Mkt: 18.7, Prev: 20.3]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4.6]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 2349, Prev: 2.589]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Empire State Survey (Nov) [Mkt: 6, Prev: 4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (ex Autos) (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Import Price Index (Oct) [Mkt: -0.1, Prev: 0.2]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Capacity Utilization (Oct) 4cast: 77% [Mkt: 77, Prev: 77.5]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Industrial production (Oct) 4cast: -0.5% m/m [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Business Inventories (Sep) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - CA: Existing Home Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 1.3, Prev: 0.6]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney

02:45 GMT / 10:45 SGT - CA: BoC Governor Poloz speaks in San Francisco


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:47 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 15 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Thursday into the close of the NY session as doubts over the phase 1 trade deal between the US and China emerged again.

The risk negative tone continued to dominate, with the JPY and the CHF making gains and commodity currencies staying under pressure, if with a modest late correction. EUR/CHF hit its lowest level since October 2 at 1.0861.

USD/JPY broke below 108.50 more on falling UST yields than equities. The weakening USD tone saw GBP/USD bounce to near 1.2890, slightly outperforming EUR/USD gains to near 1.1025 with EUR/GBP lows below .8550. Mixed US data and Fed talk had little impact.

EUR/USD gains on the data were not sustained but fresh highs followed as the USD tone soured.

RBNZ Orr said room for rate cuts is still open. NZD/USD reversed from Oct PMI beat driven gains to 0.6385. AUD/USD remained weak following the labor market disappointment on Thursday, and was last seen 0.6785.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct PPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.3% vs 0.2% exp.

- US initial claims rose to 225k from 211k vs 215k exp.

- Fed's Powell said expansion on a sustainable footing.

- Q3 German GDP rose 0.1%, stronger than the expected 0.1% decline, and Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% as expected.

- UK retail sales at -0.1% in October were below expectations.

- VIX index: 13.05 (+0.38%)

- Gold Spot: $1,471.45/oz (+0.00%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.28 ($-0.09)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.89 (+$0.12)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.09 (-0.12%)

- 10y UST: 1.819% (-7bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,781.96 (-0.01%); S&P: 3,096.63 (+0.08%); Nasdaq: 8,479.02 (-0.04%)

Data/Events Ahead:

US Oct retail sales report may be the most significant data release of the week. We expect a 0.1% increase overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline. Nov Empire State manufacturing and Oct import price data are due alongside retail sales. Later on, we expect a 0.5% fall in Oct industrial production, with declines of 0.8% in manufacturing but only 0.2% in manufacturing excluding the strike-hit auto sector. Sep business inventories follow, and look set to rise by 0.1%.

Eurozone trade balance data for September and HICP inflation are due. With the flash HICP reading showing a softening to 0.7% y/y in headline terms for the month of October, down from 0.8% y/y in September and 2.3% y/y in October 2018. Core inflation edged higher, instead, rising to 1.1% from 1.0% in September.

Japan's September industrial production and capacity utilization figures will be released today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were a mixed bag on Thursday. The Philippines peso led gains, up by 0.28% against the greenback, after the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4%. That was followed by INR (+0.16%) as it reversed some of the initial losses. CNH (+0.16%) was also in gains despite concerns over the phase 1 trade deal and China activity data disappointment. On the flip side, TWD was down by 0.23% against the dollar. KRW lost 0.18%.

USD/CNH traded close to 7.0250 on Thursday but was seen inching lower to sub-7.0200 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD plummeted. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot stuck close to familiar levels on Thursday, trading between 7.0141 and 7.0252. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs reversed a drop to 7.0850 seen on Thursday and traded up to 7.1000 handle in NY but was again seen trading lower towards 7.0900 at last look.

USD/SGD was also seen trading with an offered tone to reverse from 1.3635 highs seen on Thursday to sub-1.3620 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD softened. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair further to the 1.3647 and 1.3662 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded on either side of 14150 on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction amid flip-flop trade announcements. Onshore spot rallied to the key 14100 level on Thursday morning from previous close of 14079 amid a slew of weak economic data releases in Asia. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now, and pair could only print highs of 14105. Upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended gains to 72.450 earlier on Thursday but was later seen easing to 72.200 levels. Onshore spot broke above the 72 handle into the close on Wednesday and continued to trade higher on Thursday to fresh 10-week highs of 72.240. Surge in October CPI was noteworthy, but core inflation remained weak and growth pressures suggest room for further RBI easing is still open. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair traded with a slight downside bias and was last seen below the 72 handle. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited unless fiscal push is seen.

Data/Events Highlights:

China's October activity data continued to be sluggish. IP came in at 4.7% y/y from 5.8% prior. Retail sales also dipped to 7.2% y/y from 7.8% a month ago.

BSP decided to keep rates unchanged.

India's October WPI slid further to 0.16% y/y from 0.33% y/y earlier.

Data/Events Ahead:

A heavy data calendar in Asia today. Malaysia's Q3 GDP and Indonesia's October trade data is reported around mid-day.

Final print of Hong Kong's Q3 GDP is also on tap in the afternoon.

India's October trade data and Philippines' September remittances will also be reported.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

IN: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -18% y/y [Prev: -13.8]

IN: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7% y/y [Prev: -6.6]

IN: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -11.077USD bn [Mkt: -11.83, Prev: -10.86]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 4.3% y/y [Mkt: 4.4, Prev: 4.9]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -6.5% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -5.74]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -13% y/y [Mkt: -14.85, Prev: -2.41]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -511USD mn [Mkt: -400, Prev: -160]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.1]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (Sep) [Prev: -2.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - HK: GDP (3Q F) [Prev: -2.9]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: HICP - Core (Oct Final) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: CPI (Oct Final) [Mkt: 0.7, Prev: 0.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (Sep) [Mkt: 18.7, Prev: 20.3]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4.6]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 2349, Prev: 2.589]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Empire State Survey (Nov) [Mkt: 6, Prev: 4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (ex Autos) (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Import Price Index (Oct) [Mkt: -0.1, Prev: 0.2]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Capacity Utilization (Oct) 4cast: 77% [Mkt: 77, Prev: 77.5]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Industrial production (Oct) 4cast: -0.5% m/m [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Business Inventories (Sep) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - CA: Existing Home Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 1.3, Prev: 0.6]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney

02:45 GMT / 10:45 SGT - CA: BoC Governor Poloz speaks in San Francisco


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:47 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 15 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Thursday into the close of the NY session as doubts over the phase 1 trade deal between the US and China emerged again.

The risk negative tone continued to dominate, with the JPY and the CHF making gains and commodity currencies staying under pressure, if with a modest late correction. EUR/CHF hit its lowest level since October 2 at 1.0861.

USD/JPY broke below 108.50 more on falling UST yields than equities. The weakening USD tone saw GBP/USD bounce to near 1.2890, slightly outperforming EUR/USD gains to near 1.1025 with EUR/GBP lows below .8550. Mixed US data and Fed talk had little impact.

EUR/USD gains on the data were not sustained but fresh highs followed as the USD tone soured.

RBNZ Orr said room for rate cuts is still open. NZD/USD reversed from Oct PMI beat driven gains to 0.6385. AUD/USD remained weak following the labor market disappointment on Thursday, and was last seen 0.6785.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct PPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.3% vs 0.2% exp.

- US initial claims rose to 225k from 211k vs 215k exp.

- Fed's Powell said expansion on a sustainable footing.

- Q3 German GDP rose 0.1%, stronger than the expected 0.1% decline, and Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% as expected.

- UK retail sales at -0.1% in October were below expectations.

- VIX index: 13.05 (+0.38%)

- Gold Spot: $1,471.45/oz (+0.00%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.28 ($-0.09)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.89 (+$0.12)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.09 (-0.12%)

- 10y UST: 1.819% (-7bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,781.96 (-0.01%); S&P: 3,096.63 (+0.08%); Nasdaq: 8,479.02 (-0.04%)

Data/Events Ahead:

US Oct retail sales report may be the most significant data release of the week. We expect a 0.1% increase overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline. Nov Empire State manufacturing and Oct import price data are due alongside retail sales. Later on, we expect a 0.5% fall in Oct industrial production, with declines of 0.8% in manufacturing but only 0.2% in manufacturing excluding the strike-hit auto sector. Sep business inventories follow, and look set to rise by 0.1%.

Eurozone trade balance data for September and HICP inflation are due. With the flash HICP reading showing a softening to 0.7% y/y in headline terms for the month of October, down from 0.8% y/y in September and 2.3% y/y in October 2018. Core inflation edged higher, instead, rising to 1.1% from 1.0% in September.

Japan's September industrial production and capacity utilization figures will be released today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were a mixed bag on Thursday. The Philippines peso led gains, up by 0.28% against the greenback, after the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4%. That was followed by INR (+0.16%) as it reversed some of the initial losses. CNH (+0.16%) was also in gains despite concerns over the phase 1 trade deal and China activity data disappointment. On the flip side, TWD was down by 0.23% against the dollar. KRW lost 0.18%.

USD/CNH traded close to 7.0250 on Thursday but was seen inching lower to sub-7.0200 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD plummeted. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot stuck close to familiar levels on Thursday, trading between 7.0141 and 7.0252. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs reversed a drop to 7.0850 seen on Thursday and traded up to 7.1000 handle in NY but was again seen trading lower towards 7.0900 at last look.

USD/SGD was also seen trading with an offered tone to reverse from 1.3635 highs seen on Thursday to sub-1.3620 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD softened. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair further to the 1.3647 and 1.3662 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded on either side of 14150 on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction amid flip-flop trade announcements. Onshore spot rallied to the key 14100 level on Thursday morning from previous close of 14079 amid a slew of weak economic data releases in Asia. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now, and pair could only print highs of 14105. Upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended gains to 72.450 earlier on Thursday but was later seen easing to 72.200 levels. Onshore spot broke above the 72 handle into the close on Wednesday and continued to trade higher on Thursday to fresh 10-week highs of 72.240. Surge in October CPI was noteworthy, but core inflation remained weak and growth pressures suggest room for further RBI easing is still open. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair traded with a slight downside bias and was last seen below the 72 handle. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited unless fiscal push is seen.

Data/Events Highlights:

China's October activity data continued to be sluggish. IP came in at 4.7% y/y from 5.8% prior. Retail sales also dipped to 7.2% y/y from 7.8% a month ago.

BSP decided to keep rates unchanged.

India's October WPI slid further to 0.16% y/y from 0.33% y/y earlier.

Data/Events Ahead:

A heavy data calendar in Asia today. Malaysia's Q3 GDP and Indonesia's October trade data is reported around mid-day.

Final print of Hong Kong's Q3 GDP is also on tap in the afternoon.

India's October trade data and Philippines' September remittances will also be reported.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

IN: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -18% y/y [Prev: -13.8]

IN: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7% y/y [Prev: -6.6]

IN: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -11.077USD bn [Mkt: -11.83, Prev: -10.86]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 4.3% y/y [Mkt: 4.4, Prev: 4.9]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -6.5% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -5.74]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -13% y/y [Mkt: -14.85, Prev: -2.41]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -511USD mn [Mkt: -400, Prev: -160]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.1]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (Sep) [Prev: -2.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - HK: GDP (3Q F) [Prev: -2.9]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: HICP - Core (Oct Final) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: CPI (Oct Final) [Mkt: 0.7, Prev: 0.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (Sep) [Mkt: 18.7, Prev: 20.3]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4.6]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 2349, Prev: 2.589]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Empire State Survey (Nov) [Mkt: 6, Prev: 4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (ex Autos) (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Import Price Index (Oct) [Mkt: -0.1, Prev: 0.2]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Capacity Utilization (Oct) 4cast: 77% [Mkt: 77, Prev: 77.5]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Industrial production (Oct) 4cast: -0.5% m/m [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Business Inventories (Sep) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - CA: Existing Home Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 1.3, Prev: 0.6]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney

02:45 GMT / 10:45 SGT - CA: BoC Governor Poloz speaks in San Francisco


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:47 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 15 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Thursday into the close of the NY session as doubts over the phase 1 trade deal between the US and China emerged again.

The risk negative tone continued to dominate, with the JPY and the CHF making gains and commodity currencies staying under pressure, if with a modest late correction. EUR/CHF hit its lowest level since October 2 at 1.0861.

USD/JPY broke below 108.50 more on falling UST yields than equities. The weakening USD tone saw GBP/USD bounce to near 1.2890, slightly outperforming EUR/USD gains to near 1.1025 with EUR/GBP lows below .8550. Mixed US data and Fed talk had little impact.

EUR/USD gains on the data were not sustained but fresh highs followed as the USD tone soured.

RBNZ Orr said room for rate cuts is still open. NZD/USD reversed from Oct PMI beat driven gains to 0.6385. AUD/USD remained weak following the labor market disappointment on Thursday, and was last seen 0.6785.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct PPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.3% vs 0.2% exp.

- US initial claims rose to 225k from 211k vs 215k exp.

- Fed's Powell said expansion on a sustainable footing.

- Q3 German GDP rose 0.1%, stronger than the expected 0.1% decline, and Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% as expected.

- UK retail sales at -0.1% in October were below expectations.

- VIX index: 13.05 (+0.38%)

- Gold Spot: $1,471.45/oz (+0.00%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.28 ($-0.09)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.89 (+$0.12)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.09 (-0.12%)

- 10y UST: 1.819% (-7bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,781.96 (-0.01%); S&P: 3,096.63 (+0.08%); Nasdaq: 8,479.02 (-0.04%)

Data/Events Ahead:

US Oct retail sales report may be the most significant data release of the week. We expect a 0.1% increase overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline. Nov Empire State manufacturing and Oct import price data are due alongside retail sales. Later on, we expect a 0.5% fall in Oct industrial production, with declines of 0.8% in manufacturing but only 0.2% in manufacturing excluding the strike-hit auto sector. Sep business inventories follow, and look set to rise by 0.1%.

Eurozone trade balance data for September and HICP inflation are due. With the flash HICP reading showing a softening to 0.7% y/y in headline terms for the month of October, down from 0.8% y/y in September and 2.3% y/y in October 2018. Core inflation edged higher, instead, rising to 1.1% from 1.0% in September.

Japan's September industrial production and capacity utilization figures will be released today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were a mixed bag on Thursday. The Philippines peso led gains, up by 0.28% against the greenback, after the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4%. That was followed by INR (+0.16%) as it reversed some of the initial losses. CNH (+0.16%) was also in gains despite concerns over the phase 1 trade deal and China activity data disappointment. On the flip side, TWD was down by 0.23% against the dollar. KRW lost 0.18%.

USD/CNH traded close to 7.0250 on Thursday but was seen inching lower to sub-7.0200 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD plummeted. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot stuck close to familiar levels on Thursday, trading between 7.0141 and 7.0252. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs reversed a drop to 7.0850 seen on Thursday and traded up to 7.1000 handle in NY but was again seen trading lower towards 7.0900 at last look.

USD/SGD was also seen trading with an offered tone to reverse from 1.3635 highs seen on Thursday to sub-1.3620 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD softened. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair further to the 1.3647 and 1.3662 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded on either side of 14150 on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction amid flip-flop trade announcements. Onshore spot rallied to the key 14100 level on Thursday morning from previous close of 14079 amid a slew of weak economic data releases in Asia. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now, and pair could only print highs of 14105. Upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended gains to 72.450 earlier on Thursday but was later seen easing to 72.200 levels. Onshore spot broke above the 72 handle into the close on Wednesday and continued to trade higher on Thursday to fresh 10-week highs of 72.240. Surge in October CPI was noteworthy, but core inflation remained weak and growth pressures suggest room for further RBI easing is still open. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair traded with a slight downside bias and was last seen below the 72 handle. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited unless fiscal push is seen.

Data/Events Highlights:

China's October activity data continued to be sluggish. IP came in at 4.7% y/y from 5.8% prior. Retail sales also dipped to 7.2% y/y from 7.8% a month ago.

BSP decided to keep rates unchanged.

India's October WPI slid further to 0.16% y/y from 0.33% y/y earlier.

Data/Events Ahead:

A heavy data calendar in Asia today. Malaysia's Q3 GDP and Indonesia's October trade data is reported around mid-day.

Final print of Hong Kong's Q3 GDP is also on tap in the afternoon.

India's October trade data and Philippines' September remittances will also be reported.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

IN: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -18% y/y [Prev: -13.8]

IN: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7% y/y [Prev: -6.6]

IN: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -11.077USD bn [Mkt: -11.83, Prev: -10.86]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 4.3% y/y [Mkt: 4.4, Prev: 4.9]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -6.5% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -5.74]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -13% y/y [Mkt: -14.85, Prev: -2.41]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -511USD mn [Mkt: -400, Prev: -160]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.1]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (Sep) [Prev: -2.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - HK: GDP (3Q F) [Prev: -2.9]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: HICP - Core (Oct Final) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: CPI (Oct Final) [Mkt: 0.7, Prev: 0.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (Sep) [Mkt: 18.7, Prev: 20.3]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4.6]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 2349, Prev: 2.589]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Empire State Survey (Nov) [Mkt: 6, Prev: 4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (ex Autos) (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Import Price Index (Oct) [Mkt: -0.1, Prev: 0.2]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Capacity Utilization (Oct) 4cast: 77% [Mkt: 77, Prev: 77.5]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Industrial production (Oct) 4cast: -0.5% m/m [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Business Inventories (Sep) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - CA: Existing Home Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 1.3, Prev: 0.6]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney

02:45 GMT / 10:45 SGT - CA: BoC Governor Poloz speaks in San Francisco


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:47 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 15 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Thursday into the close of the NY session as doubts over the phase 1 trade deal between the US and China emerged again.

The risk negative tone continued to dominate, with the JPY and the CHF making gains and commodity currencies staying under pressure, if with a modest late correction. EUR/CHF hit its lowest level since October 2 at 1.0861.

USD/JPY broke below 108.50 more on falling UST yields than equities. The weakening USD tone saw GBP/USD bounce to near 1.2890, slightly outperforming EUR/USD gains to near 1.1025 with EUR/GBP lows below .8550. Mixed US data and Fed talk had little impact.

EUR/USD gains on the data were not sustained but fresh highs followed as the USD tone soured.

RBNZ Orr said room for rate cuts is still open. NZD/USD reversed from Oct PMI beat driven gains to 0.6385. AUD/USD remained weak following the labor market disappointment on Thursday, and was last seen 0.6785.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct PPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.3% vs 0.2% exp.

- US initial claims rose to 225k from 211k vs 215k exp.

- Fed's Powell said expansion on a sustainable footing.

- Q3 German GDP rose 0.1%, stronger than the expected 0.1% decline, and Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% as expected.

- UK retail sales at -0.1% in October were below expectations.

- VIX index: 13.05 (+0.38%)

- Gold Spot: $1,471.45/oz (+0.00%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.28 ($-0.09)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.89 (+$0.12)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.09 (-0.12%)

- 10y UST: 1.819% (-7bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,781.96 (-0.01%); S&P: 3,096.63 (+0.08%); Nasdaq: 8,479.02 (-0.04%)

Data/Events Ahead:

US Oct retail sales report may be the most significant data release of the week. We expect a 0.1% increase overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline. Nov Empire State manufacturing and Oct import price data are due alongside retail sales. Later on, we expect a 0.5% fall in Oct industrial production, with declines of 0.8% in manufacturing but only 0.2% in manufacturing excluding the strike-hit auto sector. Sep business inventories follow, and look set to rise by 0.1%.

Eurozone trade balance data for September and HICP inflation are due. With the flash HICP reading showing a softening to 0.7% y/y in headline terms for the month of October, down from 0.8% y/y in September and 2.3% y/y in October 2018. Core inflation edged higher, instead, rising to 1.1% from 1.0% in September.

Japan's September industrial production and capacity utilization figures will be released today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were a mixed bag on Thursday. The Philippines peso led gains, up by 0.28% against the greenback, after the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4%. That was followed by INR (+0.16%) as it reversed some of the initial losses. CNH (+0.16%) was also in gains despite concerns over the phase 1 trade deal and China activity data disappointment. On the flip side, TWD was down by 0.23% against the dollar. KRW lost 0.18%.

USD/CNH traded close to 7.0250 on Thursday but was seen inching lower to sub-7.0200 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD plummeted. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot stuck close to familiar levels on Thursday, trading between 7.0141 and 7.0252. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs reversed a drop to 7.0850 seen on Thursday and traded up to 7.1000 handle in NY but was again seen trading lower towards 7.0900 at last look.

USD/SGD was also seen trading with an offered tone to reverse from 1.3635 highs seen on Thursday to sub-1.3620 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD softened. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair further to the 1.3647 and 1.3662 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded on either side of 14150 on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction amid flip-flop trade announcements. Onshore spot rallied to the key 14100 level on Thursday morning from previous close of 14079 amid a slew of weak economic data releases in Asia. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now, and pair could only print highs of 14105. Upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended gains to 72.450 earlier on Thursday but was later seen easing to 72.200 levels. Onshore spot broke above the 72 handle into the close on Wednesday and continued to trade higher on Thursday to fresh 10-week highs of 72.240. Surge in October CPI was noteworthy, but core inflation remained weak and growth pressures suggest room for further RBI easing is still open. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair traded with a slight downside bias and was last seen below the 72 handle. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited unless fiscal push is seen.

Data/Events Highlights:

China's October activity data continued to be sluggish. IP came in at 4.7% y/y from 5.8% prior. Retail sales also dipped to 7.2% y/y from 7.8% a month ago.

BSP decided to keep rates unchanged.

India's October WPI slid further to 0.16% y/y from 0.33% y/y earlier.

Data/Events Ahead:

A heavy data calendar in Asia today. Malaysia's Q3 GDP and Indonesia's October trade data is reported around mid-day.

Final print of Hong Kong's Q3 GDP is also on tap in the afternoon.

India's October trade data and Philippines' September remittances will also be reported.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

IN: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -18% y/y [Prev: -13.8]

IN: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7% y/y [Prev: -6.6]

IN: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -11.077USD bn [Mkt: -11.83, Prev: -10.86]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 4.3% y/y [Mkt: 4.4, Prev: 4.9]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -6.5% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -5.74]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -13% y/y [Mkt: -14.85, Prev: -2.41]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -511USD mn [Mkt: -400, Prev: -160]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.1]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (Sep) [Prev: -2.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - HK: GDP (3Q F) [Prev: -2.9]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: HICP - Core (Oct Final) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: CPI (Oct Final) [Mkt: 0.7, Prev: 0.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (Sep) [Mkt: 18.7, Prev: 20.3]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4.6]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 2349, Prev: 2.589]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Empire State Survey (Nov) [Mkt: 6, Prev: 4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (ex Autos) (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Import Price Index (Oct) [Mkt: -0.1, Prev: 0.2]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Capacity Utilization (Oct) 4cast: 77% [Mkt: 77, Prev: 77.5]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Industrial production (Oct) 4cast: -0.5% m/m [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Business Inventories (Sep) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - CA: Existing Home Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 1.3, Prev: 0.6]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney

02:45 GMT / 10:45 SGT - CA: BoC Governor Poloz speaks in San Francisco


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:47 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 15 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Thursday into the close of the NY session as doubts over the phase 1 trade deal between the US and China emerged again.

The risk negative tone continued to dominate, with the JPY and the CHF making gains and commodity currencies staying under pressure, if with a modest late correction. EUR/CHF hit its lowest level since October 2 at 1.0861.

USD/JPY broke below 108.50 more on falling UST yields than equities. The weakening USD tone saw GBP/USD bounce to near 1.2890, slightly outperforming EUR/USD gains to near 1.1025 with EUR/GBP lows below .8550. Mixed US data and Fed talk had little impact.

EUR/USD gains on the data were not sustained but fresh highs followed as the USD tone soured.

RBNZ Orr said room for rate cuts is still open. NZD/USD reversed from Oct PMI beat driven gains to 0.6385. AUD/USD remained weak following the labor market disappointment on Thursday, and was last seen 0.6785.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct PPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.3% vs 0.2% exp.

- US initial claims rose to 225k from 211k vs 215k exp.

- Fed's Powell said expansion on a sustainable footing.

- Q3 German GDP rose 0.1%, stronger than the expected 0.1% decline, and Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% as expected.

- UK retail sales at -0.1% in October were below expectations.

- VIX index: 13.05 (+0.38%)

- Gold Spot: $1,471.45/oz (+0.00%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.28 ($-0.09)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.89 (+$0.12)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.09 (-0.12%)

- 10y UST: 1.819% (-7bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,781.96 (-0.01%); S&P: 3,096.63 (+0.08%); Nasdaq: 8,479.02 (-0.04%)

Data/Events Ahead:

US Oct retail sales report may be the most significant data release of the week. We expect a 0.1% increase overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline. Nov Empire State manufacturing and Oct import price data are due alongside retail sales. Later on, we expect a 0.5% fall in Oct industrial production, with declines of 0.8% in manufacturing but only 0.2% in manufacturing excluding the strike-hit auto sector. Sep business inventories follow, and look set to rise by 0.1%.

Eurozone trade balance data for September and HICP inflation are due. With the flash HICP reading showing a softening to 0.7% y/y in headline terms for the month of October, down from 0.8% y/y in September and 2.3% y/y in October 2018. Core inflation edged higher, instead, rising to 1.1% from 1.0% in September.

Japan's September industrial production and capacity utilization figures will be released today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were a mixed bag on Thursday. The Philippines peso led gains, up by 0.28% against the greenback, after the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4%. That was followed by INR (+0.16%) as it reversed some of the initial losses. CNH (+0.16%) was also in gains despite concerns over the phase 1 trade deal and China activity data disappointment. On the flip side, TWD was down by 0.23% against the dollar. KRW lost 0.18%.

USD/CNH traded close to 7.0250 on Thursday but was seen inching lower to sub-7.0200 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD plummeted. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot stuck close to familiar levels on Thursday, trading between 7.0141 and 7.0252. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs reversed a drop to 7.0850 seen on Thursday and traded up to 7.1000 handle in NY but was again seen trading lower towards 7.0900 at last look.

USD/SGD was also seen trading with an offered tone to reverse from 1.3635 highs seen on Thursday to sub-1.3620 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD softened. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair further to the 1.3647 and 1.3662 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded on either side of 14150 on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction amid flip-flop trade announcements. Onshore spot rallied to the key 14100 level on Thursday morning from previous close of 14079 amid a slew of weak economic data releases in Asia. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now, and pair could only print highs of 14105. Upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended gains to 72.450 earlier on Thursday but was later seen easing to 72.200 levels. Onshore spot broke above the 72 handle into the close on Wednesday and continued to trade higher on Thursday to fresh 10-week highs of 72.240. Surge in October CPI was noteworthy, but core inflation remained weak and growth pressures suggest room for further RBI easing is still open. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair traded with a slight downside bias and was last seen below the 72 handle. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited unless fiscal push is seen.

Data/Events Highlights:

China's October activity data continued to be sluggish. IP came in at 4.7% y/y from 5.8% prior. Retail sales also dipped to 7.2% y/y from 7.8% a month ago.

BSP decided to keep rates unchanged.

India's October WPI slid further to 0.16% y/y from 0.33% y/y earlier.

Data/Events Ahead:

A heavy data calendar in Asia today. Malaysia's Q3 GDP and Indonesia's October trade data is reported around mid-day.

Final print of Hong Kong's Q3 GDP is also on tap in the afternoon.

India's October trade data and Philippines' September remittances will also be reported.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

IN: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -18% y/y [Prev: -13.8]

IN: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7% y/y [Prev: -6.6]

IN: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -11.077USD bn [Mkt: -11.83, Prev: -10.86]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 4.3% y/y [Mkt: 4.4, Prev: 4.9]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -6.5% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -5.74]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -13% y/y [Mkt: -14.85, Prev: -2.41]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -511USD mn [Mkt: -400, Prev: -160]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.1]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (Sep) [Prev: -2.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - HK: GDP (3Q F) [Prev: -2.9]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: HICP - Core (Oct Final) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: CPI (Oct Final) [Mkt: 0.7, Prev: 0.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (Sep) [Mkt: 18.7, Prev: 20.3]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4.6]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 2349, Prev: 2.589]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Empire State Survey (Nov) [Mkt: 6, Prev: 4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (ex Autos) (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Import Price Index (Oct) [Mkt: -0.1, Prev: 0.2]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Capacity Utilization (Oct) 4cast: 77% [Mkt: 77, Prev: 77.5]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Industrial production (Oct) 4cast: -0.5% m/m [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Business Inventories (Sep) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - CA: Existing Home Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 1.3, Prev: 0.6]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney

02:45 GMT / 10:45 SGT - CA: BoC Governor Poloz speaks in San Francisco


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:47 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 15 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Thursday into the close of the NY session as doubts over the phase 1 trade deal between the US and China emerged again.

The risk negative tone continued to dominate, with the JPY and the CHF making gains and commodity currencies staying under pressure, if with a modest late correction. EUR/CHF hit its lowest level since October 2 at 1.0861.

USD/JPY broke below 108.50 more on falling UST yields than equities. The weakening USD tone saw GBP/USD bounce to near 1.2890, slightly outperforming EUR/USD gains to near 1.1025 with EUR/GBP lows below .8550. Mixed US data and Fed talk had little impact.

EUR/USD gains on the data were not sustained but fresh highs followed as the USD tone soured.

RBNZ Orr said room for rate cuts is still open. NZD/USD reversed from Oct PMI beat driven gains to 0.6385. AUD/USD remained weak following the labor market disappointment on Thursday, and was last seen 0.6785.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct PPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.3% vs 0.2% exp.

- US initial claims rose to 225k from 211k vs 215k exp.

- Fed's Powell said expansion on a sustainable footing.

- Q3 German GDP rose 0.1%, stronger than the expected 0.1% decline, and Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% as expected.

- UK retail sales at -0.1% in October were below expectations.

- VIX index: 13.05 (+0.38%)

- Gold Spot: $1,471.45/oz (+0.00%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.28 ($-0.09)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.89 (+$0.12)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.09 (-0.12%)

- 10y UST: 1.819% (-7bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,781.96 (-0.01%); S&P: 3,096.63 (+0.08%); Nasdaq: 8,479.02 (-0.04%)

Data/Events Ahead:

US Oct retail sales report may be the most significant data release of the week. We expect a 0.1% increase overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline. Nov Empire State manufacturing and Oct import price data are due alongside retail sales. Later on, we expect a 0.5% fall in Oct industrial production, with declines of 0.8% in manufacturing but only 0.2% in manufacturing excluding the strike-hit auto sector. Sep business inventories follow, and look set to rise by 0.1%.

Eurozone trade balance data for September and HICP inflation are due. With the flash HICP reading showing a softening to 0.7% y/y in headline terms for the month of October, down from 0.8% y/y in September and 2.3% y/y in October 2018. Core inflation edged higher, instead, rising to 1.1% from 1.0% in September.

Japan's September industrial production and capacity utilization figures will be released today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were a mixed bag on Thursday. The Philippines peso led gains, up by 0.28% against the greenback, after the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4%. That was followed by INR (+0.16%) as it reversed some of the initial losses. CNH (+0.16%) was also in gains despite concerns over the phase 1 trade deal and China activity data disappointment. On the flip side, TWD was down by 0.23% against the dollar. KRW lost 0.18%.

USD/CNH traded close to 7.0250 on Thursday but was seen inching lower to sub-7.0200 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD plummeted. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot stuck close to familiar levels on Thursday, trading between 7.0141 and 7.0252. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs reversed a drop to 7.0850 seen on Thursday and traded up to 7.1000 handle in NY but was again seen trading lower towards 7.0900 at last look.

USD/SGD was also seen trading with an offered tone to reverse from 1.3635 highs seen on Thursday to sub-1.3620 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD softened. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair further to the 1.3647 and 1.3662 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded on either side of 14150 on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction amid flip-flop trade announcements. Onshore spot rallied to the key 14100 level on Thursday morning from previous close of 14079 amid a slew of weak economic data releases in Asia. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now, and pair could only print highs of 14105. Upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended gains to 72.450 earlier on Thursday but was later seen easing to 72.200 levels. Onshore spot broke above the 72 handle into the close on Wednesday and continued to trade higher on Thursday to fresh 10-week highs of 72.240. Surge in October CPI was noteworthy, but core inflation remained weak and growth pressures suggest room for further RBI easing is still open. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair traded with a slight downside bias and was last seen below the 72 handle. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited unless fiscal push is seen.

Data/Events Highlights:

China's October activity data continued to be sluggish. IP came in at 4.7% y/y from 5.8% prior. Retail sales also dipped to 7.2% y/y from 7.8% a month ago.

BSP decided to keep rates unchanged.

India's October WPI slid further to 0.16% y/y from 0.33% y/y earlier.

Data/Events Ahead:

A heavy data calendar in Asia today. Malaysia's Q3 GDP and Indonesia's October trade data is reported around mid-day.

Final print of Hong Kong's Q3 GDP is also on tap in the afternoon.

India's October trade data and Philippines' September remittances will also be reported.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

IN: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -18% y/y [Prev: -13.8]

IN: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7% y/y [Prev: -6.6]

IN: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -11.077USD bn [Mkt: -11.83, Prev: -10.86]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 4.3% y/y [Mkt: 4.4, Prev: 4.9]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -6.5% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -5.74]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -13% y/y [Mkt: -14.85, Prev: -2.41]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -511USD mn [Mkt: -400, Prev: -160]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.1]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (Sep) [Prev: -2.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - HK: GDP (3Q F) [Prev: -2.9]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: HICP - Core (Oct Final) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: CPI (Oct Final) [Mkt: 0.7, Prev: 0.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (Sep) [Mkt: 18.7, Prev: 20.3]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4.6]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 2349, Prev: 2.589]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Empire State Survey (Nov) [Mkt: 6, Prev: 4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (ex Autos) (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Import Price Index (Oct) [Mkt: -0.1, Prev: 0.2]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Capacity Utilization (Oct) 4cast: 77% [Mkt: 77, Prev: 77.5]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Industrial production (Oct) 4cast: -0.5% m/m [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Business Inventories (Sep) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - CA: Existing Home Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 1.3, Prev: 0.6]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney

02:45 GMT / 10:45 SGT - CA: BoC Governor Poloz speaks in San Francisco


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:47 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 15 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded lower on Thursday into the close of the NY session as doubts over the phase 1 trade deal between the US and China emerged again.

The risk negative tone continued to dominate, with the JPY and the CHF making gains and commodity currencies staying under pressure, if with a modest late correction. EUR/CHF hit its lowest level since October 2 at 1.0861.

USD/JPY broke below 108.50 more on falling UST yields than equities. The weakening USD tone saw GBP/USD bounce to near 1.2890, slightly outperforming EUR/USD gains to near 1.1025 with EUR/GBP lows below .8550. Mixed US data and Fed talk had little impact.

EUR/USD gains on the data were not sustained but fresh highs followed as the USD tone soured.

RBNZ Orr said room for rate cuts is still open. NZD/USD reversed from Oct PMI beat driven gains to 0.6385. AUD/USD remained weak following the labor market disappointment on Thursday, and was last seen 0.6785.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct PPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.3% vs 0.2% exp.

- US initial claims rose to 225k from 211k vs 215k exp.

- Fed's Powell said expansion on a sustainable footing.

- Q3 German GDP rose 0.1%, stronger than the expected 0.1% decline, and Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% as expected.

- UK retail sales at -0.1% in October were below expectations.

- VIX index: 13.05 (+0.38%)

- Gold Spot: $1,471.45/oz (+0.00%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.28 ($-0.09)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $56.89 (+$0.12)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.09 (-0.12%)

- 10y UST: 1.819% (-7bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,781.96 (-0.01%); S&P: 3,096.63 (+0.08%); Nasdaq: 8,479.02 (-0.04%)

Data/Events Ahead:

US Oct retail sales report may be the most significant data release of the week. We expect a 0.1% increase overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0.3% ex autos and gasoline. Nov Empire State manufacturing and Oct import price data are due alongside retail sales. Later on, we expect a 0.5% fall in Oct industrial production, with declines of 0.8% in manufacturing but only 0.2% in manufacturing excluding the strike-hit auto sector. Sep business inventories follow, and look set to rise by 0.1%.

Eurozone trade balance data for September and HICP inflation are due. With the flash HICP reading showing a softening to 0.7% y/y in headline terms for the month of October, down from 0.8% y/y in September and 2.3% y/y in October 2018. Core inflation edged higher, instead, rising to 1.1% from 1.0% in September.

Japan's September industrial production and capacity utilization figures will be released today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies were a mixed bag on Thursday. The Philippines peso led gains, up by 0.28% against the greenback, after the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4%. That was followed by INR (+0.16%) as it reversed some of the initial losses. CNH (+0.16%) was also in gains despite concerns over the phase 1 trade deal and China activity data disappointment. On the flip side, TWD was down by 0.23% against the dollar. KRW lost 0.18%.

USD/CNH traded close to 7.0250 on Thursday but was seen inching lower to sub-7.0200 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD plummeted. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot stuck close to familiar levels on Thursday, trading between 7.0141 and 7.0252. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs reversed a drop to 7.0850 seen on Thursday and traded up to 7.1000 handle in NY but was again seen trading lower towards 7.0900 at last look.

USD/SGD was also seen trading with an offered tone to reverse from 1.3635 highs seen on Thursday to sub-1.3620 levels in late NY/early Asian hours as the USD softened. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair further to the 1.3647 and 1.3662 resistance next.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs traded on either side of 14150 on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction amid flip-flop trade announcements. Onshore spot rallied to the key 14100 level on Thursday morning from previous close of 14079 amid a slew of weak economic data releases in Asia. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now, and pair could only print highs of 14105. Upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended gains to 72.450 earlier on Thursday but was later seen easing to 72.200 levels. Onshore spot broke above the 72 handle into the close on Wednesday and continued to trade higher on Thursday to fresh 10-week highs of 72.240. Surge in October CPI was noteworthy, but core inflation remained weak and growth pressures suggest room for further RBI easing is still open. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair traded with a slight downside bias and was last seen below the 72 handle. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited unless fiscal push is seen.

Data/Events Highlights:

China's October activity data continued to be sluggish. IP came in at 4.7% y/y from 5.8% prior. Retail sales also dipped to 7.2% y/y from 7.8% a month ago.

BSP decided to keep rates unchanged.

India's October WPI slid further to 0.16% y/y from 0.33% y/y earlier.

Data/Events Ahead:

A heavy data calendar in Asia today. Malaysia's Q3 GDP and Indonesia's October trade data is reported around mid-day.

Final print of Hong Kong's Q3 GDP is also on tap in the afternoon.

India's October trade data and Philippines' September remittances will also be reported.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

IN: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -18% y/y [Prev: -13.8]

IN: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -7% y/y [Prev: -6.6]

IN: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -11.077USD bn [Mkt: -11.83, Prev: -10.86]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - MY: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 4.3% y/y [Mkt: 4.4, Prev: 4.9]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Exports (Oct) 4cast: -6.5% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -5.74]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Imports (Oct) 4cast: -13% y/y [Mkt: -14.85, Prev: -2.41]

04:00 GMT / 12:00 SGT - ID: Trade Balance (Oct) 4cast: -511USD mn [Mkt: -400, Prev: -160]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Industrial Production (Sep F) [Prev: 1.1]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: Capacity Utilisation (Sep) [Prev: -2.9]

08:30 GMT / 16:30 SGT - HK: GDP (3Q F) [Prev: -2.9]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: HICP - Core (Oct Final) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: CPI (Oct Final) [Mkt: 0.7, Prev: 0.7]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: Trade Balance (sa) (Sep) [Mkt: 18.7, Prev: 20.3]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4.6]

12:00 GMT / 20:00 SGT - PH: Overseas Remittances (Sep) [Mkt: 2349, Prev: 2.589]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Empire State Survey (Nov) [Mkt: 6, Prev: 4]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Retail Sales (ex Autos) (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Import Price Index (Oct) [Mkt: -0.1, Prev: 0.2]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Capacity Utilization (Oct) 4cast: 77% [Mkt: 77, Prev: 77.5]

14:15 GMT / 22:15 SGT - US: Industrial production (Oct) 4cast: -0.5% m/m [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Business Inventories (Sep) 4cast: 0.1% m/m [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - CA: Existing Home Sales (Oct) 4cast: 0.5% m/m [Mkt: 1.3, Prev: 0.6]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

01:30 GMT / 09:30 SGT - AU: RBA's Debelle Speaks in Sydney

02:45 GMT / 10:45 SGT - CA: BoC Governor Poloz speaks in San Francisco


Forex - Chart USD/SGD Update: Short-term rally continues toward 200-day MA


 12:15 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Charts]

Please view the story for more information...


Forex - Philippines Flows: USD/PHP upside still remains vulnerable


 02:58 (GMT) 14 Nov

 [Forex Flows]

USD/PHP opened a notch higher at 50.930 vs. last close of 50.820. The pair eased slightly to 50.845 at last look. A slew of weak data from China has again spurred concerns in the markets, with industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data all missing expectations. Concerns remained that Chinese economy has yet to hit the bottom, capping risk appetite. For USD/PHP, the immediate resistance is seen at 50.920/51.000 area, and a break higher will expose next resistance at 51.330. 1M NDFs failed to edge above 51.000 level, and was lower at 50.900 at last look. PSEi extended declines, and was down by 0.64%.


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 13 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 14 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded sideways on Wednesday as further trade news was awaited and Trump's impeachment hearings began. Fed Powell said economy is in a good place.

EUR/USD tested 1.10 early in European and later in North America session, but failed to make a sustained break, with worries in the equity market restraining the USD's advances.

USD/JPY also moved lower, a modest recovery after Fed's Powell finished speaking restrained by a fresh dip in equities on trade concerns, keeping the pair below 109.

Commodity currencies suffered in the risk negative conditions, with AUD/USD dipping to its lowest level since late October, while USD/CAD hit its highest level since October 11. NZD was comparatively resilient after the RBNZ decision to keep rates on hold.

GBP was little changed, with some restraint from weaker than expected CPI data, which hit a 3 year low of 1.5%. Scandis were softer, though the SEK rose briefly after Swedish CPI data that was broadly as expected, while NOK was steady early before weakening later in the session.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.2% as exp.

- Fed's Powell said current policy likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming data broadly consistent with Fed's economic outlook.

- UK CPI fell from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.5%, this in line with the recent BoE estimate.

- Eurozone industrial production remained broadly unchanged in September, increasing marginally by 0.1% m/m.

- VIX index: 13.00 (+2.52%)

- Gold Spot: $1,464.25/oz (+0.05%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.37 (+$0.31)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.34 (+$0.22)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.31 (+0.28%)

- 10y UST: 1.886% (-5bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,783.59 (+0.33%); S&P: 3,094.04 (+0.07%); Nasdaq: 8,482.10 (-0.05%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Today in the US, we see Oct PPI, which we expect to correct from a decline in Sep with a 0.4% increase, 0.3% ex food and energy. Also due are weekly initial claims.

Fed speaker calendar is busy, with moderate voter Clarida, dovish voter Evans, moderate non-voter Daly, moderate voter Williams and dovish voter Bullard all due.

Eurozone national account data for Q3 will be updated with the second estimate of the Q3 real GDP growth set to confirm the flash 0.2% q/q growth.

We also expect Destatis to officially declare the German economy in technical recession, with Q3 real GDP contracting for the second consecutive quarter by 0.1% q/q. When compared to a year earlier Q3 GDP would be 0.5% higher, though.

UK housing report will likely remain soft followed later by the volatile and unruly retail sales numbers.

Japan's Q3's Preliminary GDP print will be released first this morning, and we are expecting a slight slip to 0.2% q/q in Q3 from 0.3% q/q in Q2.

Australia labor market data will also be on tap today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies saw broad declines against dollar on Wednesday as trade war concerns lingered and tensions escalated in Hong Kong. INR (-0.86%) was the worst performer as it returned after the Tuesday holiday to further bad economic reports. South Korean Won reversed gains amid risk off sentiment, and was down by 0.57% against USD. That was followed by MYR (-0.28%), TWD (-0.26%), CNY (-0.22%) and IDR (-0.18%). China data will be key in the day ahead.

USD/CNH saw another push above 7.0300 to highs of 7.0374 in the NY session but returned just lower thereafter. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. Thursday will see China's October economic data. Expectations are low but even weaker numbers may point towards more risk aversion. USD/CNY onshore spot was also boosted to 7+ levels, and traded between 7.0126 and 7.0270 on Wednesday. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs meanwhile touched highs of 7.1100 in the NY session but was last seen back at 7.1000.

USD/SGD also printed fresh 2-week high at 1.3632 on Wednesday as Trump's China tariffs threat fostered some risk-off sentiments. However, pair subsequently pared some of its gains to around 1.3625. We now shift our eyes to the 1.3647 and 1.3661 resistances next, although pair may potentially reverse and eye the 1.3558 and 1.3540 support if further positive trade news is seen.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs maintained a bid tone on Wednesday, and saw some breaks above 14180 in the NY session. Onshore spot gapped higher to open at 14070 on Wednesday from previous close of 14054 and inched higher to fresh over 3-week highs of 14086 in the morning. Concerns regarding phase 1 trade deal remained with tariff rollbacks still in question. Pair possibly remained capped below 14100 amid authorities' presence in the markets. Upside however likely to test 14115 resistance, and a break below 14000 may only be seen if the trade deal brings a positive surprise.
USD/INR 1M NDFs saw gains extend to 72.420 following a sharp jump in October CPI. Onshore spot returned higher from holiday to open at 71.760 on Wednesday amid sustained economic growth concerns. September industrial output reported on Monday showed a severe decline and October CPI jumped to 4.6% y/y. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair pushed higher in the afternoon and printed over 2-month highs of 72.090 into the close. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited.

Data/Events Highlights:

India's October CPI was higher than market expectations at 4.62% y/y, breaching RBI's medium term target of 4%.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's October growth statistics will be key today. We expect some deterioration in retail sales and industrial production.

India's October wholesale inflation is likely to turn negative.

Philippines' central bank is seen as holding interest rates through to the end of the year.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: GDP (sa) (Q3 P) 4cast: 0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Participation Rate (Oct) 4cast: 66.1 [Mkt: 66.1, Prev: 66.1]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 5.2% [Mkt: 5.2, Prev: 5.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Employment (Oct) 4cast: 19 k [Mkt: 18, Prev: 14.7]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 7.6% y/y [Mkt: 7.8, Prev: 7.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Fixed Asset Investment YTD (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.4, Prev: 5.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Sep) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 0.4]

06:30 GMT / 14:30 SGT - IN: WPI (Oct) 4cast: -0.35% y/y [Mkt: -0.224, Prev: 0.33]

08:00 GMT / 16:00 SGT - PH: BSP - Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (Nov 14) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: -0.8% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.1]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 3.4, Prev: 3]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (Oct) 4cast: 0.4% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (ex Food & Energy) (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 09) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 211]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: House Price Index (Sep) [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0.1]

21:30 GMT / 05:30 SGT - NZ: Business NZ Manufacturing PMI (Oct) [Prev: 48.4]

23:01 GMT / 07:01 SGT - UK: RICS Housing Survey (Oct) [Mkt: -3, Prev: -2]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:45 GMT / 17:45 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in London

11:00 GMT / 19:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Lane speaks in Frankfurt

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Fed's Clarida speaks at Cato Institute

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Knot speaks in Frankfurt

14:10 GMT / 22:10 SGT - US: Fed's Evans speaks in Philadelphia

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Fed's Powell to testify to House Budget Committee

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: Fed's Williams speaks at economic policy conference

17:20 GMT / 01:20 SGT - US: Fed's Bullard speaks in Louisville


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 13 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 14 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded sideways on Wednesday as further trade news was awaited and Trump's impeachment hearings began. Fed Powell said economy is in a good place.

EUR/USD tested 1.10 early in European and later in North America session, but failed to make a sustained break, with worries in the equity market restraining the USD's advances.

USD/JPY also moved lower, a modest recovery after Fed's Powell finished speaking restrained by a fresh dip in equities on trade concerns, keeping the pair below 109.

Commodity currencies suffered in the risk negative conditions, with AUD/USD dipping to its lowest level since late October, while USD/CAD hit its highest level since October 11. NZD was comparatively resilient after the RBNZ decision to keep rates on hold.

GBP was little changed, with some restraint from weaker than expected CPI data, which hit a 3 year low of 1.5%. Scandis were softer, though the SEK rose briefly after Swedish CPI data that was broadly as expected, while NOK was steady early before weakening later in the session.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.2% as exp.

- Fed's Powell said current policy likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming data broadly consistent with Fed's economic outlook.

- UK CPI fell from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.5%, this in line with the recent BoE estimate.

- Eurozone industrial production remained broadly unchanged in September, increasing marginally by 0.1% m/m.

- VIX index: 13.00 (+2.52%)

- Gold Spot: $1,464.25/oz (+0.05%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.37 (+$0.31)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.34 (+$0.22)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.31 (+0.28%)

- 10y UST: 1.886% (-5bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,783.59 (+0.33%); S&P: 3,094.04 (+0.07%); Nasdaq: 8,482.10 (-0.05%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Today in the US, we see Oct PPI, which we expect to correct from a decline in Sep with a 0.4% increase, 0.3% ex food and energy. Also due are weekly initial claims.

Fed speaker calendar is busy, with moderate voter Clarida, dovish voter Evans, moderate non-voter Daly, moderate voter Williams and dovish voter Bullard all due.

Eurozone national account data for Q3 will be updated with the second estimate of the Q3 real GDP growth set to confirm the flash 0.2% q/q growth.

We also expect Destatis to officially declare the German economy in technical recession, with Q3 real GDP contracting for the second consecutive quarter by 0.1% q/q. When compared to a year earlier Q3 GDP would be 0.5% higher, though.

UK housing report will likely remain soft followed later by the volatile and unruly retail sales numbers.

Japan's Q3's Preliminary GDP print will be released first this morning, and we are expecting a slight slip to 0.2% q/q in Q3 from 0.3% q/q in Q2.

Australia labor market data will also be on tap today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies saw broad declines against dollar on Wednesday as trade war concerns lingered and tensions escalated in Hong Kong. INR (-0.86%) was the worst performer as it returned after the Tuesday holiday to further bad economic reports. South Korean Won reversed gains amid risk off sentiment, and was down by 0.57% against USD. That was followed by MYR (-0.28%), TWD (-0.26%), CNY (-0.22%) and IDR (-0.18%). China data will be key in the day ahead.

USD/CNH saw another push above 7.0300 to highs of 7.0374 in the NY session but returned just lower thereafter. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. Thursday will see China's October economic data. Expectations are low but even weaker numbers may point towards more risk aversion. USD/CNY onshore spot was also boosted to 7+ levels, and traded between 7.0126 and 7.0270 on Wednesday. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs meanwhile touched highs of 7.1100 in the NY session but was last seen back at 7.1000.

USD/SGD also printed fresh 2-week high at 1.3632 on Wednesday as Trump's China tariffs threat fostered some risk-off sentiments. However, pair subsequently pared some of its gains to around 1.3625. We now shift our eyes to the 1.3647 and 1.3661 resistances next, although pair may potentially reverse and eye the 1.3558 and 1.3540 support if further positive trade news is seen.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs maintained a bid tone on Wednesday, and saw some breaks above 14180 in the NY session. Onshore spot gapped higher to open at 14070 on Wednesday from previous close of 14054 and inched higher to fresh over 3-week highs of 14086 in the morning. Concerns regarding phase 1 trade deal remained with tariff rollbacks still in question. Pair possibly remained capped below 14100 amid authorities' presence in the markets. Upside however likely to test 14115 resistance, and a break below 14000 may only be seen if the trade deal brings a positive surprise.
USD/INR 1M NDFs saw gains extend to 72.420 following a sharp jump in October CPI. Onshore spot returned higher from holiday to open at 71.760 on Wednesday amid sustained economic growth concerns. September industrial output reported on Monday showed a severe decline and October CPI jumped to 4.6% y/y. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair pushed higher in the afternoon and printed over 2-month highs of 72.090 into the close. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited.

Data/Events Highlights:

India's October CPI was higher than market expectations at 4.62% y/y, breaching RBI's medium term target of 4%.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's October growth statistics will be key today. We expect some deterioration in retail sales and industrial production.

India's October wholesale inflation is likely to turn negative.

Philippines' central bank is seen as holding interest rates through to the end of the year.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: GDP (sa) (Q3 P) 4cast: 0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Participation Rate (Oct) 4cast: 66.1 [Mkt: 66.1, Prev: 66.1]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 5.2% [Mkt: 5.2, Prev: 5.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Employment (Oct) 4cast: 19 k [Mkt: 18, Prev: 14.7]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 7.6% y/y [Mkt: 7.8, Prev: 7.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Fixed Asset Investment YTD (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.4, Prev: 5.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Sep) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 0.4]

06:30 GMT / 14:30 SGT - IN: WPI (Oct) 4cast: -0.35% y/y [Mkt: -0.224, Prev: 0.33]

08:00 GMT / 16:00 SGT - PH: BSP - Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (Nov 14) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: -0.8% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.1]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 3.4, Prev: 3]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (Oct) 4cast: 0.4% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (ex Food & Energy) (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 09) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 211]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: House Price Index (Sep) [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0.1]

21:30 GMT / 05:30 SGT - NZ: Business NZ Manufacturing PMI (Oct) [Prev: 48.4]

23:01 GMT / 07:01 SGT - UK: RICS Housing Survey (Oct) [Mkt: -3, Prev: -2]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:45 GMT / 17:45 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in London

11:00 GMT / 19:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Lane speaks in Frankfurt

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Fed's Clarida speaks at Cato Institute

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Knot speaks in Frankfurt

14:10 GMT / 22:10 SGT - US: Fed's Evans speaks in Philadelphia

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Fed's Powell to testify to House Budget Committee

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: Fed's Williams speaks at economic policy conference

17:20 GMT / 01:20 SGT - US: Fed's Bullard speaks in Louisville


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 13 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 14 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded sideways on Wednesday as further trade news was awaited and Trump's impeachment hearings began. Fed Powell said economy is in a good place.

EUR/USD tested 1.10 early in European and later in North America session, but failed to make a sustained break, with worries in the equity market restraining the USD's advances.

USD/JPY also moved lower, a modest recovery after Fed's Powell finished speaking restrained by a fresh dip in equities on trade concerns, keeping the pair below 109.

Commodity currencies suffered in the risk negative conditions, with AUD/USD dipping to its lowest level since late October, while USD/CAD hit its highest level since October 11. NZD was comparatively resilient after the RBNZ decision to keep rates on hold.

GBP was little changed, with some restraint from weaker than expected CPI data, which hit a 3 year low of 1.5%. Scandis were softer, though the SEK rose briefly after Swedish CPI data that was broadly as expected, while NOK was steady early before weakening later in the session.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.2% as exp.

- Fed's Powell said current policy likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming data broadly consistent with Fed's economic outlook.

- UK CPI fell from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.5%, this in line with the recent BoE estimate.

- Eurozone industrial production remained broadly unchanged in September, increasing marginally by 0.1% m/m.

- VIX index: 13.00 (+2.52%)

- Gold Spot: $1,464.25/oz (+0.05%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.37 (+$0.31)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.34 (+$0.22)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.31 (+0.28%)

- 10y UST: 1.886% (-5bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,783.59 (+0.33%); S&P: 3,094.04 (+0.07%); Nasdaq: 8,482.10 (-0.05%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Today in the US, we see Oct PPI, which we expect to correct from a decline in Sep with a 0.4% increase, 0.3% ex food and energy. Also due are weekly initial claims.

Fed speaker calendar is busy, with moderate voter Clarida, dovish voter Evans, moderate non-voter Daly, moderate voter Williams and dovish voter Bullard all due.

Eurozone national account data for Q3 will be updated with the second estimate of the Q3 real GDP growth set to confirm the flash 0.2% q/q growth.

We also expect Destatis to officially declare the German economy in technical recession, with Q3 real GDP contracting for the second consecutive quarter by 0.1% q/q. When compared to a year earlier Q3 GDP would be 0.5% higher, though.

UK housing report will likely remain soft followed later by the volatile and unruly retail sales numbers.

Japan's Q3's Preliminary GDP print will be released first this morning, and we are expecting a slight slip to 0.2% q/q in Q3 from 0.3% q/q in Q2.

Australia labor market data will also be on tap today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies saw broad declines against dollar on Wednesday as trade war concerns lingered and tensions escalated in Hong Kong. INR (-0.86%) was the worst performer as it returned after the Tuesday holiday to further bad economic reports. South Korean Won reversed gains amid risk off sentiment, and was down by 0.57% against USD. That was followed by MYR (-0.28%), TWD (-0.26%), CNY (-0.22%) and IDR (-0.18%). China data will be key in the day ahead.

USD/CNH saw another push above 7.0300 to highs of 7.0374 in the NY session but returned just lower thereafter. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. Thursday will see China's October economic data. Expectations are low but even weaker numbers may point towards more risk aversion. USD/CNY onshore spot was also boosted to 7+ levels, and traded between 7.0126 and 7.0270 on Wednesday. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs meanwhile touched highs of 7.1100 in the NY session but was last seen back at 7.1000.

USD/SGD also printed fresh 2-week high at 1.3632 on Wednesday as Trump's China tariffs threat fostered some risk-off sentiments. However, pair subsequently pared some of its gains to around 1.3625. We now shift our eyes to the 1.3647 and 1.3661 resistances next, although pair may potentially reverse and eye the 1.3558 and 1.3540 support if further positive trade news is seen.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs maintained a bid tone on Wednesday, and saw some breaks above 14180 in the NY session. Onshore spot gapped higher to open at 14070 on Wednesday from previous close of 14054 and inched higher to fresh over 3-week highs of 14086 in the morning. Concerns regarding phase 1 trade deal remained with tariff rollbacks still in question. Pair possibly remained capped below 14100 amid authorities' presence in the markets. Upside however likely to test 14115 resistance, and a break below 14000 may only be seen if the trade deal brings a positive surprise.
USD/INR 1M NDFs saw gains extend to 72.420 following a sharp jump in October CPI. Onshore spot returned higher from holiday to open at 71.760 on Wednesday amid sustained economic growth concerns. September industrial output reported on Monday showed a severe decline and October CPI jumped to 4.6% y/y. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair pushed higher in the afternoon and printed over 2-month highs of 72.090 into the close. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited.

Data/Events Highlights:

India's October CPI was higher than market expectations at 4.62% y/y, breaching RBI's medium term target of 4%.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's October growth statistics will be key today. We expect some deterioration in retail sales and industrial production.

India's October wholesale inflation is likely to turn negative.

Philippines' central bank is seen as holding interest rates through to the end of the year.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: GDP (sa) (Q3 P) 4cast: 0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Participation Rate (Oct) 4cast: 66.1 [Mkt: 66.1, Prev: 66.1]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 5.2% [Mkt: 5.2, Prev: 5.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Employment (Oct) 4cast: 19 k [Mkt: 18, Prev: 14.7]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 7.6% y/y [Mkt: 7.8, Prev: 7.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Fixed Asset Investment YTD (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.4, Prev: 5.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Sep) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 0.4]

06:30 GMT / 14:30 SGT - IN: WPI (Oct) 4cast: -0.35% y/y [Mkt: -0.224, Prev: 0.33]

08:00 GMT / 16:00 SGT - PH: BSP - Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (Nov 14) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: -0.8% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.1]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 3.4, Prev: 3]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (Oct) 4cast: 0.4% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (ex Food & Energy) (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 09) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 211]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: House Price Index (Sep) [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0.1]

21:30 GMT / 05:30 SGT - NZ: Business NZ Manufacturing PMI (Oct) [Prev: 48.4]

23:01 GMT / 07:01 SGT - UK: RICS Housing Survey (Oct) [Mkt: -3, Prev: -2]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:45 GMT / 17:45 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in London

11:00 GMT / 19:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Lane speaks in Frankfurt

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Fed's Clarida speaks at Cato Institute

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Knot speaks in Frankfurt

14:10 GMT / 22:10 SGT - US: Fed's Evans speaks in Philadelphia

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Fed's Powell to testify to House Budget Committee

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: Fed's Williams speaks at economic policy conference

17:20 GMT / 01:20 SGT - US: Fed's Bullard speaks in Louisville


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 13 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 14 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded sideways on Wednesday as further trade news was awaited and Trump's impeachment hearings began. Fed Powell said economy is in a good place.

EUR/USD tested 1.10 early in European and later in North America session, but failed to make a sustained break, with worries in the equity market restraining the USD's advances.

USD/JPY also moved lower, a modest recovery after Fed's Powell finished speaking restrained by a fresh dip in equities on trade concerns, keeping the pair below 109.

Commodity currencies suffered in the risk negative conditions, with AUD/USD dipping to its lowest level since late October, while USD/CAD hit its highest level since October 11. NZD was comparatively resilient after the RBNZ decision to keep rates on hold.

GBP was little changed, with some restraint from weaker than expected CPI data, which hit a 3 year low of 1.5%. Scandis were softer, though the SEK rose briefly after Swedish CPI data that was broadly as expected, while NOK was steady early before weakening later in the session.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.2% as exp.

- Fed's Powell said current policy likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming data broadly consistent with Fed's economic outlook.

- UK CPI fell from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.5%, this in line with the recent BoE estimate.

- Eurozone industrial production remained broadly unchanged in September, increasing marginally by 0.1% m/m.

- VIX index: 13.00 (+2.52%)

- Gold Spot: $1,464.25/oz (+0.05%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.37 (+$0.31)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.34 (+$0.22)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.31 (+0.28%)

- 10y UST: 1.886% (-5bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,783.59 (+0.33%); S&P: 3,094.04 (+0.07%); Nasdaq: 8,482.10 (-0.05%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Today in the US, we see Oct PPI, which we expect to correct from a decline in Sep with a 0.4% increase, 0.3% ex food and energy. Also due are weekly initial claims.

Fed speaker calendar is busy, with moderate voter Clarida, dovish voter Evans, moderate non-voter Daly, moderate voter Williams and dovish voter Bullard all due.

Eurozone national account data for Q3 will be updated with the second estimate of the Q3 real GDP growth set to confirm the flash 0.2% q/q growth.

We also expect Destatis to officially declare the German economy in technical recession, with Q3 real GDP contracting for the second consecutive quarter by 0.1% q/q. When compared to a year earlier Q3 GDP would be 0.5% higher, though.

UK housing report will likely remain soft followed later by the volatile and unruly retail sales numbers.

Japan's Q3's Preliminary GDP print will be released first this morning, and we are expecting a slight slip to 0.2% q/q in Q3 from 0.3% q/q in Q2.

Australia labor market data will also be on tap today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies saw broad declines against dollar on Wednesday as trade war concerns lingered and tensions escalated in Hong Kong. INR (-0.86%) was the worst performer as it returned after the Tuesday holiday to further bad economic reports. South Korean Won reversed gains amid risk off sentiment, and was down by 0.57% against USD. That was followed by MYR (-0.28%), TWD (-0.26%), CNY (-0.22%) and IDR (-0.18%). China data will be key in the day ahead.

USD/CNH saw another push above 7.0300 to highs of 7.0374 in the NY session but returned just lower thereafter. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. Thursday will see China's October economic data. Expectations are low but even weaker numbers may point towards more risk aversion. USD/CNY onshore spot was also boosted to 7+ levels, and traded between 7.0126 and 7.0270 on Wednesday. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs meanwhile touched highs of 7.1100 in the NY session but was last seen back at 7.1000.

USD/SGD also printed fresh 2-week high at 1.3632 on Wednesday as Trump's China tariffs threat fostered some risk-off sentiments. However, pair subsequently pared some of its gains to around 1.3625. We now shift our eyes to the 1.3647 and 1.3661 resistances next, although pair may potentially reverse and eye the 1.3558 and 1.3540 support if further positive trade news is seen.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs maintained a bid tone on Wednesday, and saw some breaks above 14180 in the NY session. Onshore spot gapped higher to open at 14070 on Wednesday from previous close of 14054 and inched higher to fresh over 3-week highs of 14086 in the morning. Concerns regarding phase 1 trade deal remained with tariff rollbacks still in question. Pair possibly remained capped below 14100 amid authorities' presence in the markets. Upside however likely to test 14115 resistance, and a break below 14000 may only be seen if the trade deal brings a positive surprise.
USD/INR 1M NDFs saw gains extend to 72.420 following a sharp jump in October CPI. Onshore spot returned higher from holiday to open at 71.760 on Wednesday amid sustained economic growth concerns. September industrial output reported on Monday showed a severe decline and October CPI jumped to 4.6% y/y. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair pushed higher in the afternoon and printed over 2-month highs of 72.090 into the close. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited.

Data/Events Highlights:

India's October CPI was higher than market expectations at 4.62% y/y, breaching RBI's medium term target of 4%.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's October growth statistics will be key today. We expect some deterioration in retail sales and industrial production.

India's October wholesale inflation is likely to turn negative.

Philippines' central bank is seen as holding interest rates through to the end of the year.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: GDP (sa) (Q3 P) 4cast: 0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Participation Rate (Oct) 4cast: 66.1 [Mkt: 66.1, Prev: 66.1]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 5.2% [Mkt: 5.2, Prev: 5.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Employment (Oct) 4cast: 19 k [Mkt: 18, Prev: 14.7]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 7.6% y/y [Mkt: 7.8, Prev: 7.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Fixed Asset Investment YTD (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.4, Prev: 5.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Sep) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 0.4]

06:30 GMT / 14:30 SGT - IN: WPI (Oct) 4cast: -0.35% y/y [Mkt: -0.224, Prev: 0.33]

08:00 GMT / 16:00 SGT - PH: BSP - Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (Nov 14) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: -0.8% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.1]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 3.4, Prev: 3]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (Oct) 4cast: 0.4% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (ex Food & Energy) (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 09) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 211]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: House Price Index (Sep) [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0.1]

21:30 GMT / 05:30 SGT - NZ: Business NZ Manufacturing PMI (Oct) [Prev: 48.4]

23:01 GMT / 07:01 SGT - UK: RICS Housing Survey (Oct) [Mkt: -3, Prev: -2]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:45 GMT / 17:45 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in London

11:00 GMT / 19:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Lane speaks in Frankfurt

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Fed's Clarida speaks at Cato Institute

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Knot speaks in Frankfurt

14:10 GMT / 22:10 SGT - US: Fed's Evans speaks in Philadelphia

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Fed's Powell to testify to House Budget Committee

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: Fed's Williams speaks at economic policy conference

17:20 GMT / 01:20 SGT - US: Fed's Bullard speaks in Louisville


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 13 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 14 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded sideways on Wednesday as further trade news was awaited and Trump's impeachment hearings began. Fed Powell said economy is in a good place.

EUR/USD tested 1.10 early in European and later in North America session, but failed to make a sustained break, with worries in the equity market restraining the USD's advances.

USD/JPY also moved lower, a modest recovery after Fed's Powell finished speaking restrained by a fresh dip in equities on trade concerns, keeping the pair below 109.

Commodity currencies suffered in the risk negative conditions, with AUD/USD dipping to its lowest level since late October, while USD/CAD hit its highest level since October 11. NZD was comparatively resilient after the RBNZ decision to keep rates on hold.

GBP was little changed, with some restraint from weaker than expected CPI data, which hit a 3 year low of 1.5%. Scandis were softer, though the SEK rose briefly after Swedish CPI data that was broadly as expected, while NOK was steady early before weakening later in the session.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.2% as exp.

- Fed's Powell said current policy likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming data broadly consistent with Fed's economic outlook.

- UK CPI fell from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.5%, this in line with the recent BoE estimate.

- Eurozone industrial production remained broadly unchanged in September, increasing marginally by 0.1% m/m.

- VIX index: 13.00 (+2.52%)

- Gold Spot: $1,464.25/oz (+0.05%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.37 (+$0.31)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.34 (+$0.22)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.31 (+0.28%)

- 10y UST: 1.886% (-5bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,783.59 (+0.33%); S&P: 3,094.04 (+0.07%); Nasdaq: 8,482.10 (-0.05%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Today in the US, we see Oct PPI, which we expect to correct from a decline in Sep with a 0.4% increase, 0.3% ex food and energy. Also due are weekly initial claims.

Fed speaker calendar is busy, with moderate voter Clarida, dovish voter Evans, moderate non-voter Daly, moderate voter Williams and dovish voter Bullard all due.

Eurozone national account data for Q3 will be updated with the second estimate of the Q3 real GDP growth set to confirm the flash 0.2% q/q growth.

We also expect Destatis to officially declare the German economy in technical recession, with Q3 real GDP contracting for the second consecutive quarter by 0.1% q/q. When compared to a year earlier Q3 GDP would be 0.5% higher, though.

UK housing report will likely remain soft followed later by the volatile and unruly retail sales numbers.

Japan's Q3's Preliminary GDP print will be released first this morning, and we are expecting a slight slip to 0.2% q/q in Q3 from 0.3% q/q in Q2.

Australia labor market data will also be on tap today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies saw broad declines against dollar on Wednesday as trade war concerns lingered and tensions escalated in Hong Kong. INR (-0.86%) was the worst performer as it returned after the Tuesday holiday to further bad economic reports. South Korean Won reversed gains amid risk off sentiment, and was down by 0.57% against USD. That was followed by MYR (-0.28%), TWD (-0.26%), CNY (-0.22%) and IDR (-0.18%). China data will be key in the day ahead.

USD/CNH saw another push above 7.0300 to highs of 7.0374 in the NY session but returned just lower thereafter. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. Thursday will see China's October economic data. Expectations are low but even weaker numbers may point towards more risk aversion. USD/CNY onshore spot was also boosted to 7+ levels, and traded between 7.0126 and 7.0270 on Wednesday. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs meanwhile touched highs of 7.1100 in the NY session but was last seen back at 7.1000.

USD/SGD also printed fresh 2-week high at 1.3632 on Wednesday as Trump's China tariffs threat fostered some risk-off sentiments. However, pair subsequently pared some of its gains to around 1.3625. We now shift our eyes to the 1.3647 and 1.3661 resistances next, although pair may potentially reverse and eye the 1.3558 and 1.3540 support if further positive trade news is seen.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs maintained a bid tone on Wednesday, and saw some breaks above 14180 in the NY session. Onshore spot gapped higher to open at 14070 on Wednesday from previous close of 14054 and inched higher to fresh over 3-week highs of 14086 in the morning. Concerns regarding phase 1 trade deal remained with tariff rollbacks still in question. Pair possibly remained capped below 14100 amid authorities' presence in the markets. Upside however likely to test 14115 resistance, and a break below 14000 may only be seen if the trade deal brings a positive surprise.
USD/INR 1M NDFs saw gains extend to 72.420 following a sharp jump in October CPI. Onshore spot returned higher from holiday to open at 71.760 on Wednesday amid sustained economic growth concerns. September industrial output reported on Monday showed a severe decline and October CPI jumped to 4.6% y/y. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair pushed higher in the afternoon and printed over 2-month highs of 72.090 into the close. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited.

Data/Events Highlights:

India's October CPI was higher than market expectations at 4.62% y/y, breaching RBI's medium term target of 4%.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's October growth statistics will be key today. We expect some deterioration in retail sales and industrial production.

India's October wholesale inflation is likely to turn negative.

Philippines' central bank is seen as holding interest rates through to the end of the year.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: GDP (sa) (Q3 P) 4cast: 0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Participation Rate (Oct) 4cast: 66.1 [Mkt: 66.1, Prev: 66.1]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 5.2% [Mkt: 5.2, Prev: 5.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Employment (Oct) 4cast: 19 k [Mkt: 18, Prev: 14.7]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 7.6% y/y [Mkt: 7.8, Prev: 7.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Fixed Asset Investment YTD (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.4, Prev: 5.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Sep) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 0.4]

06:30 GMT / 14:30 SGT - IN: WPI (Oct) 4cast: -0.35% y/y [Mkt: -0.224, Prev: 0.33]

08:00 GMT / 16:00 SGT - PH: BSP - Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (Nov 14) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: -0.8% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.1]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 3.4, Prev: 3]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (Oct) 4cast: 0.4% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (ex Food & Energy) (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 09) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 211]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: House Price Index (Sep) [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0.1]

21:30 GMT / 05:30 SGT - NZ: Business NZ Manufacturing PMI (Oct) [Prev: 48.4]

23:01 GMT / 07:01 SGT - UK: RICS Housing Survey (Oct) [Mkt: -3, Prev: -2]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:45 GMT / 17:45 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in London

11:00 GMT / 19:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Lane speaks in Frankfurt

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Fed's Clarida speaks at Cato Institute

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Knot speaks in Frankfurt

14:10 GMT / 22:10 SGT - US: Fed's Evans speaks in Philadelphia

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Fed's Powell to testify to House Budget Committee

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: Fed's Williams speaks at economic policy conference

17:20 GMT / 01:20 SGT - US: Fed's Bullard speaks in Louisville


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 13 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 14 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded sideways on Wednesday as further trade news was awaited and Trump's impeachment hearings began. Fed Powell said economy is in a good place.

EUR/USD tested 1.10 early in European and later in North America session, but failed to make a sustained break, with worries in the equity market restraining the USD's advances.

USD/JPY also moved lower, a modest recovery after Fed's Powell finished speaking restrained by a fresh dip in equities on trade concerns, keeping the pair below 109.

Commodity currencies suffered in the risk negative conditions, with AUD/USD dipping to its lowest level since late October, while USD/CAD hit its highest level since October 11. NZD was comparatively resilient after the RBNZ decision to keep rates on hold.

GBP was little changed, with some restraint from weaker than expected CPI data, which hit a 3 year low of 1.5%. Scandis were softer, though the SEK rose briefly after Swedish CPI data that was broadly as expected, while NOK was steady early before weakening later in the session.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.2% as exp.

- Fed's Powell said current policy likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming data broadly consistent with Fed's economic outlook.

- UK CPI fell from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.5%, this in line with the recent BoE estimate.

- Eurozone industrial production remained broadly unchanged in September, increasing marginally by 0.1% m/m.

- VIX index: 13.00 (+2.52%)

- Gold Spot: $1,464.25/oz (+0.05%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.37 (+$0.31)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.34 (+$0.22)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.31 (+0.28%)

- 10y UST: 1.886% (-5bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,783.59 (+0.33%); S&P: 3,094.04 (+0.07%); Nasdaq: 8,482.10 (-0.05%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Today in the US, we see Oct PPI, which we expect to correct from a decline in Sep with a 0.4% increase, 0.3% ex food and energy. Also due are weekly initial claims.

Fed speaker calendar is busy, with moderate voter Clarida, dovish voter Evans, moderate non-voter Daly, moderate voter Williams and dovish voter Bullard all due.

Eurozone national account data for Q3 will be updated with the second estimate of the Q3 real GDP growth set to confirm the flash 0.2% q/q growth.

We also expect Destatis to officially declare the German economy in technical recession, with Q3 real GDP contracting for the second consecutive quarter by 0.1% q/q. When compared to a year earlier Q3 GDP would be 0.5% higher, though.

UK housing report will likely remain soft followed later by the volatile and unruly retail sales numbers.

Japan's Q3's Preliminary GDP print will be released first this morning, and we are expecting a slight slip to 0.2% q/q in Q3 from 0.3% q/q in Q2.

Australia labor market data will also be on tap today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies saw broad declines against dollar on Wednesday as trade war concerns lingered and tensions escalated in Hong Kong. INR (-0.86%) was the worst performer as it returned after the Tuesday holiday to further bad economic reports. South Korean Won reversed gains amid risk off sentiment, and was down by 0.57% against USD. That was followed by MYR (-0.28%), TWD (-0.26%), CNY (-0.22%) and IDR (-0.18%). China data will be key in the day ahead.

USD/CNH saw another push above 7.0300 to highs of 7.0374 in the NY session but returned just lower thereafter. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. Thursday will see China's October economic data. Expectations are low but even weaker numbers may point towards more risk aversion. USD/CNY onshore spot was also boosted to 7+ levels, and traded between 7.0126 and 7.0270 on Wednesday. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs meanwhile touched highs of 7.1100 in the NY session but was last seen back at 7.1000.

USD/SGD also printed fresh 2-week high at 1.3632 on Wednesday as Trump's China tariffs threat fostered some risk-off sentiments. However, pair subsequently pared some of its gains to around 1.3625. We now shift our eyes to the 1.3647 and 1.3661 resistances next, although pair may potentially reverse and eye the 1.3558 and 1.3540 support if further positive trade news is seen.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs maintained a bid tone on Wednesday, and saw some breaks above 14180 in the NY session. Onshore spot gapped higher to open at 14070 on Wednesday from previous close of 14054 and inched higher to fresh over 3-week highs of 14086 in the morning. Concerns regarding phase 1 trade deal remained with tariff rollbacks still in question. Pair possibly remained capped below 14100 amid authorities' presence in the markets. Upside however likely to test 14115 resistance, and a break below 14000 may only be seen if the trade deal brings a positive surprise.
USD/INR 1M NDFs saw gains extend to 72.420 following a sharp jump in October CPI. Onshore spot returned higher from holiday to open at 71.760 on Wednesday amid sustained economic growth concerns. September industrial output reported on Monday showed a severe decline and October CPI jumped to 4.6% y/y. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair pushed higher in the afternoon and printed over 2-month highs of 72.090 into the close. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited.

Data/Events Highlights:

India's October CPI was higher than market expectations at 4.62% y/y, breaching RBI's medium term target of 4%.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's October growth statistics will be key today. We expect some deterioration in retail sales and industrial production.

India's October wholesale inflation is likely to turn negative.

Philippines' central bank is seen as holding interest rates through to the end of the year.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: GDP (sa) (Q3 P) 4cast: 0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Participation Rate (Oct) 4cast: 66.1 [Mkt: 66.1, Prev: 66.1]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 5.2% [Mkt: 5.2, Prev: 5.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Employment (Oct) 4cast: 19 k [Mkt: 18, Prev: 14.7]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 7.6% y/y [Mkt: 7.8, Prev: 7.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Fixed Asset Investment YTD (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.4, Prev: 5.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Sep) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 0.4]

06:30 GMT / 14:30 SGT - IN: WPI (Oct) 4cast: -0.35% y/y [Mkt: -0.224, Prev: 0.33]

08:00 GMT / 16:00 SGT - PH: BSP - Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (Nov 14) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: -0.8% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.1]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 3.4, Prev: 3]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (Oct) 4cast: 0.4% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (ex Food & Energy) (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 09) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 211]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: House Price Index (Sep) [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0.1]

21:30 GMT / 05:30 SGT - NZ: Business NZ Manufacturing PMI (Oct) [Prev: 48.4]

23:01 GMT / 07:01 SGT - UK: RICS Housing Survey (Oct) [Mkt: -3, Prev: -2]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:45 GMT / 17:45 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in London

11:00 GMT / 19:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Lane speaks in Frankfurt

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Fed's Clarida speaks at Cato Institute

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Knot speaks in Frankfurt

14:10 GMT / 22:10 SGT - US: Fed's Evans speaks in Philadelphia

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Fed's Powell to testify to House Budget Committee

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: Fed's Williams speaks at economic policy conference

17:20 GMT / 01:20 SGT - US: Fed's Bullard speaks in Louisville


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 13 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 14 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded sideways on Wednesday as further trade news was awaited and Trump's impeachment hearings began. Fed Powell said economy is in a good place.

EUR/USD tested 1.10 early in European and later in North America session, but failed to make a sustained break, with worries in the equity market restraining the USD's advances.

USD/JPY also moved lower, a modest recovery after Fed's Powell finished speaking restrained by a fresh dip in equities on trade concerns, keeping the pair below 109.

Commodity currencies suffered in the risk negative conditions, with AUD/USD dipping to its lowest level since late October, while USD/CAD hit its highest level since October 11. NZD was comparatively resilient after the RBNZ decision to keep rates on hold.

GBP was little changed, with some restraint from weaker than expected CPI data, which hit a 3 year low of 1.5%. Scandis were softer, though the SEK rose briefly after Swedish CPI data that was broadly as expected, while NOK was steady early before weakening later in the session.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.2% as exp.

- Fed's Powell said current policy likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming data broadly consistent with Fed's economic outlook.

- UK CPI fell from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.5%, this in line with the recent BoE estimate.

- Eurozone industrial production remained broadly unchanged in September, increasing marginally by 0.1% m/m.

- VIX index: 13.00 (+2.52%)

- Gold Spot: $1,464.25/oz (+0.05%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.37 (+$0.31)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.34 (+$0.22)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.31 (+0.28%)

- 10y UST: 1.886% (-5bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,783.59 (+0.33%); S&P: 3,094.04 (+0.07%); Nasdaq: 8,482.10 (-0.05%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Today in the US, we see Oct PPI, which we expect to correct from a decline in Sep with a 0.4% increase, 0.3% ex food and energy. Also due are weekly initial claims.

Fed speaker calendar is busy, with moderate voter Clarida, dovish voter Evans, moderate non-voter Daly, moderate voter Williams and dovish voter Bullard all due.

Eurozone national account data for Q3 will be updated with the second estimate of the Q3 real GDP growth set to confirm the flash 0.2% q/q growth.

We also expect Destatis to officially declare the German economy in technical recession, with Q3 real GDP contracting for the second consecutive quarter by 0.1% q/q. When compared to a year earlier Q3 GDP would be 0.5% higher, though.

UK housing report will likely remain soft followed later by the volatile and unruly retail sales numbers.

Japan's Q3's Preliminary GDP print will be released first this morning, and we are expecting a slight slip to 0.2% q/q in Q3 from 0.3% q/q in Q2.

Australia labor market data will also be on tap today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies saw broad declines against dollar on Wednesday as trade war concerns lingered and tensions escalated in Hong Kong. INR (-0.86%) was the worst performer as it returned after the Tuesday holiday to further bad economic reports. South Korean Won reversed gains amid risk off sentiment, and was down by 0.57% against USD. That was followed by MYR (-0.28%), TWD (-0.26%), CNY (-0.22%) and IDR (-0.18%). China data will be key in the day ahead.

USD/CNH saw another push above 7.0300 to highs of 7.0374 in the NY session but returned just lower thereafter. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. Thursday will see China's October economic data. Expectations are low but even weaker numbers may point towards more risk aversion. USD/CNY onshore spot was also boosted to 7+ levels, and traded between 7.0126 and 7.0270 on Wednesday. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs meanwhile touched highs of 7.1100 in the NY session but was last seen back at 7.1000.

USD/SGD also printed fresh 2-week high at 1.3632 on Wednesday as Trump's China tariffs threat fostered some risk-off sentiments. However, pair subsequently pared some of its gains to around 1.3625. We now shift our eyes to the 1.3647 and 1.3661 resistances next, although pair may potentially reverse and eye the 1.3558 and 1.3540 support if further positive trade news is seen.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs maintained a bid tone on Wednesday, and saw some breaks above 14180 in the NY session. Onshore spot gapped higher to open at 14070 on Wednesday from previous close of 14054 and inched higher to fresh over 3-week highs of 14086 in the morning. Concerns regarding phase 1 trade deal remained with tariff rollbacks still in question. Pair possibly remained capped below 14100 amid authorities' presence in the markets. Upside however likely to test 14115 resistance, and a break below 14000 may only be seen if the trade deal brings a positive surprise.
USD/INR 1M NDFs saw gains extend to 72.420 following a sharp jump in October CPI. Onshore spot returned higher from holiday to open at 71.760 on Wednesday amid sustained economic growth concerns. September industrial output reported on Monday showed a severe decline and October CPI jumped to 4.6% y/y. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair pushed higher in the afternoon and printed over 2-month highs of 72.090 into the close. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited.

Data/Events Highlights:

India's October CPI was higher than market expectations at 4.62% y/y, breaching RBI's medium term target of 4%.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's October growth statistics will be key today. We expect some deterioration in retail sales and industrial production.

India's October wholesale inflation is likely to turn negative.

Philippines' central bank is seen as holding interest rates through to the end of the year.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: GDP (sa) (Q3 P) 4cast: 0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Participation Rate (Oct) 4cast: 66.1 [Mkt: 66.1, Prev: 66.1]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 5.2% [Mkt: 5.2, Prev: 5.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Employment (Oct) 4cast: 19 k [Mkt: 18, Prev: 14.7]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 7.6% y/y [Mkt: 7.8, Prev: 7.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Fixed Asset Investment YTD (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.4, Prev: 5.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Sep) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 0.4]

06:30 GMT / 14:30 SGT - IN: WPI (Oct) 4cast: -0.35% y/y [Mkt: -0.224, Prev: 0.33]

08:00 GMT / 16:00 SGT - PH: BSP - Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (Nov 14) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: -0.8% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.1]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 3.4, Prev: 3]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (Oct) 4cast: 0.4% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (ex Food & Energy) (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 09) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 211]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: House Price Index (Sep) [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0.1]

21:30 GMT / 05:30 SGT - NZ: Business NZ Manufacturing PMI (Oct) [Prev: 48.4]

23:01 GMT / 07:01 SGT - UK: RICS Housing Survey (Oct) [Mkt: -3, Prev: -2]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:45 GMT / 17:45 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in London

11:00 GMT / 19:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Lane speaks in Frankfurt

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Fed's Clarida speaks at Cato Institute

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Knot speaks in Frankfurt

14:10 GMT / 22:10 SGT - US: Fed's Evans speaks in Philadelphia

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Fed's Powell to testify to House Budget Committee

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: Fed's Williams speaks at economic policy conference

17:20 GMT / 01:20 SGT - US: Fed's Bullard speaks in Louisville


Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights


 23:48 (GMT) 13 Nov

 [Forex Highlights]

Asia Overnight Highlights - 14 Nov 2019

MAJORS

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index traded sideways on Wednesday as further trade news was awaited and Trump's impeachment hearings began. Fed Powell said economy is in a good place.

EUR/USD tested 1.10 early in European and later in North America session, but failed to make a sustained break, with worries in the equity market restraining the USD's advances.

USD/JPY also moved lower, a modest recovery after Fed's Powell finished speaking restrained by a fresh dip in equities on trade concerns, keeping the pair below 109.

Commodity currencies suffered in the risk negative conditions, with AUD/USD dipping to its lowest level since late October, while USD/CAD hit its highest level since October 11. NZD was comparatively resilient after the RBNZ decision to keep rates on hold.

GBP was little changed, with some restraint from weaker than expected CPI data, which hit a 3 year low of 1.5%. Scandis were softer, though the SEK rose briefly after Swedish CPI data that was broadly as expected, while NOK was steady early before weakening later in the session.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% exp, ex food/energy +0.2% as exp.

- Fed's Powell said current policy likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming data broadly consistent with Fed's economic outlook.

- UK CPI fell from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.5%, this in line with the recent BoE estimate.

- Eurozone industrial production remained broadly unchanged in September, increasing marginally by 0.1% m/m.

- VIX index: 13.00 (+2.52%)

- Gold Spot: $1,464.25/oz (+0.05%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $62.37 (+$0.31)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.34 (+$0.22)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 180.31 (+0.28%)

- 10y UST: 1.886% (-5bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 27,783.59 (+0.33%); S&P: 3,094.04 (+0.07%); Nasdaq: 8,482.10 (-0.05%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Today in the US, we see Oct PPI, which we expect to correct from a decline in Sep with a 0.4% increase, 0.3% ex food and energy. Also due are weekly initial claims.

Fed speaker calendar is busy, with moderate voter Clarida, dovish voter Evans, moderate non-voter Daly, moderate voter Williams and dovish voter Bullard all due.

Eurozone national account data for Q3 will be updated with the second estimate of the Q3 real GDP growth set to confirm the flash 0.2% q/q growth.

We also expect Destatis to officially declare the German economy in technical recession, with Q3 real GDP contracting for the second consecutive quarter by 0.1% q/q. When compared to a year earlier Q3 GDP would be 0.5% higher, though.

UK housing report will likely remain soft followed later by the volatile and unruly retail sales numbers.

Japan's Q3's Preliminary GDP print will be released first this morning, and we are expecting a slight slip to 0.2% q/q in Q3 from 0.3% q/q in Q2.

Australia labor market data will also be on tap today.

EMERGING ASIA

FX Highlights:

Asian currencies saw broad declines against dollar on Wednesday as trade war concerns lingered and tensions escalated in Hong Kong. INR (-0.86%) was the worst performer as it returned after the Tuesday holiday to further bad economic reports. South Korean Won reversed gains amid risk off sentiment, and was down by 0.57% against USD. That was followed by MYR (-0.28%), TWD (-0.26%), CNY (-0.22%) and IDR (-0.18%). China data will be key in the day ahead.

USD/CNH saw another push above 7.0300 to highs of 7.0374 in the NY session but returned just lower thereafter. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. Thursday will see China's October economic data. Expectations are low but even weaker numbers may point towards more risk aversion. USD/CNY onshore spot was also boosted to 7+ levels, and traded between 7.0126 and 7.0270 on Wednesday. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs meanwhile touched highs of 7.1100 in the NY session but was last seen back at 7.1000.

USD/SGD also printed fresh 2-week high at 1.3632 on Wednesday as Trump's China tariffs threat fostered some risk-off sentiments. However, pair subsequently pared some of its gains to around 1.3625. We now shift our eyes to the 1.3647 and 1.3661 resistances next, although pair may potentially reverse and eye the 1.3558 and 1.3540 support if further positive trade news is seen.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs maintained a bid tone on Wednesday, and saw some breaks above 14180 in the NY session. Onshore spot gapped higher to open at 14070 on Wednesday from previous close of 14054 and inched higher to fresh over 3-week highs of 14086 in the morning. Concerns regarding phase 1 trade deal remained with tariff rollbacks still in question. Pair possibly remained capped below 14100 amid authorities' presence in the markets. Upside however likely to test 14115 resistance, and a break below 14000 may only be seen if the trade deal brings a positive surprise.
USD/INR 1M NDFs saw gains extend to 72.420 following a sharp jump in October CPI. Onshore spot returned higher from holiday to open at 71.760 on Wednesday amid sustained economic growth concerns. September industrial output reported on Monday showed a severe decline and October CPI jumped to 4.6% y/y. Meanwhile, wobbly trade deal news is keeping investors on the edge. Pair pushed higher in the afternoon and printed over 2-month highs of 72.090 into the close. The break of the 72 handle may still be fragile, but expect downside pressures to remain limited.

Data/Events Highlights:

India's October CPI was higher than market expectations at 4.62% y/y, breaching RBI's medium term target of 4%.

Data/Events Ahead:

China's October growth statistics will be key today. We expect some deterioration in retail sales and industrial production.

India's October wholesale inflation is likely to turn negative.

Philippines' central bank is seen as holding interest rates through to the end of the year.

DATA RELEASES DUE TODAY

23:50 GMT / 07:50 SGT - JP: GDP (sa) (Q3 P) 4cast: 0.2% q/q [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: 0.3]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Participation Rate (Oct) 4cast: 66.1 [Mkt: 66.1, Prev: 66.1]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 5.2% [Mkt: 5.2, Prev: 5.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - AU: Employment (Oct) 4cast: 19 k [Mkt: 18, Prev: 14.7]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Retail Sales (Oct) 4cast: 7.6% y/y [Mkt: 7.8, Prev: 7.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Industrial Production (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.5, Prev: 5.8]

02:00 GMT / 10:00 SGT - CN: Fixed Asset Investment YTD (Oct) 4cast: 5.4% y/y [Mkt: 5.4, Prev: 5.4]

04:30 GMT / 12:30 SGT - JP: METI Tertiary activity index (Sep) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 0.4]

06:30 GMT / 14:30 SGT - IN: WPI (Oct) 4cast: -0.35% y/y [Mkt: -0.224, Prev: 0.33]

08:00 GMT / 16:00 SGT - PH: BSP - Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (Nov 14) 4cast: 4% [Mkt: 4, Prev: 4]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: -0.8% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Oct) 4cast: 2.7% y/y [Mkt: 3.7, Prev: 3.1]

09:30 GMT / 17:30 SGT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Oct) [Mkt: 3.4, Prev: 3]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.2]

10:00 GMT / 18:00 SGT - EU: GDP (SA) (3Q Prelim) [Mkt: 1.1, Prev: 1.1]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (Oct) 4cast: 0.4% m/m [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: PPI (ex Food & Energy) (Oct) 4cast: 0.3% m/m [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - US: Initial Claims (Nov 09) [Mkt: 215, Prev: 211]

13:30 GMT / 21:30 SGT - CA: House Price Index (Sep) [Mkt: 0.1, Prev: 0.1]

21:30 GMT / 05:30 SGT - NZ: Business NZ Manufacturing PMI (Oct) [Prev: 48.4]

23:01 GMT / 07:01 SGT - UK: RICS Housing Survey (Oct) [Mkt: -3, Prev: -2]

EVENTS & AUCTIONS

09:45 GMT / 17:45 SGT - EU: ECB's Guindos speaks in London

11:00 GMT / 19:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Lane speaks in Frankfurt

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - US: Fed's Clarida speaks at Cato Institute

14:00 GMT / 22:00 SGT - EU: ECB's Knot speaks in Frankfurt

14:10 GMT / 22:10 SGT - US: Fed's Evans speaks in Philadelphia

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: Fed's Powell to testify to House Budget Committee

17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: Fed's Williams speaks at economic policy conference

17:20 GMT / 01:20 SGT - US: Fed's Bullard speaks in Louisville


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