Forex - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights

 23:48 (GMT) 17 Nov

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Asia Overnight Highlights - 18 Nov 2019


Asia Open - Overnight Highlights (0101-PSXZ-C01)

FX Highlights:

The Bloomberg dollar spot index extended the losses further on Friday amid a slide in US manufacturing indicators, even as some of the US-China trade deal optimism offset.

Supported by positive comments on US-China trade in the Asian session USD/JPY moved steadily higher, highs above 108.80. AUD/USD was also supported, moving above .68 though USD/CAD struggled to find direction. EUR/CHF continued its rebound from Thursday, getting close to 1.0950.

In the UK the Brexit Party was reported to stand down 43 candidates in non-Tory seats, further improving the market perception that Johnson might win a majority at the election. GBP/USD bounced above 1.29. EUR/GBP saw a low of .8548 but EUR/USD moved steadily higher from the mid-European morning, moving above 1.1050.

Data/Events Highlights:

- US Oct retail sales +0.3% vs 0.2% exp, ex autos +0.2% vs 0.4% exp.

- US Nov Empire State manufacturing fell to 2.9 from 4.0 vs 6.0 exp.

- US Oct industrial production -0.8% vs -0.4% exp, manufacturing -0.6% vs -0.7% exp, manufacturing ex autos -0.1%.

- European data was thin on the ground, Oct Eurozone CPI confirmed at 1.2% and Sep's trade balance up to 18.7bn from 14.7bn, higher than expected.

- VIX index: 12.05 (-7.66%)

- Gold Spot: $1,468.07/oz (-0.02%)

- ICE Brent front contract: $63.25 ($-0.05)

- Nymex WTI front contract: $57.69 ($-0.03)

- Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index: 181.00 (+0.51%)

- 10y UST: 1.831% (+1bp) (Asia morning)

- DJI: 28,004.89 (+0.80%); S&P: 3,120.46 (+0.77%); Nasdaq: 8,540.83 (+0.73%)

Data/Events Ahead:

Monday's data sees Nov's NAHB homebuilders' index and Sep Tics capital flows in the US.

UK Rightmove house price data may show another negative reading.


Asia Open - Overnight Highlights (0101-PSXZ-C02)

FX Highlights:

The week saw most Asian currencies weakened against the dollar. Cautious sentiment regarding the progress in the phase one US/China deal and worries over China's slowing economy continue to keep risk appetite in check. South Korean Won was seen leading losses, down by 0.80% against the dollar in the week. That was followed by INR (-0.7%), IDR (-0.45%), MYR (-0.43%), TWD (-0.40%), CNH (-0.29%), CNY (-0.17%) and SGD (-0.11%). Philippines peso was in mild losses of 0.30% against the greenback, and the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at its meeting in November. Thai baht was an outperformer, up by 0.54% against dollar.

USD/CNH managed to stay just above the 7 handle on Friday in the NY hours even as the USD was weaker. Watch the 7.0445 resistance level for any signs of breakthrough. USD/CNY onshore spot had meanwhile seen a dip below the 7 handle to 6.9982 on Friday but later rose to 7.0164 highs. Pair may edge higher towards the 7.0494 resistance. 1Y NDFs saw a big drop earlier on Friday from near-7.1000 levels and remained below 7.0850 this morning.

USD/SGD tested a break above 1.3620 a few times on Friday but returned lower again, sliding to lows of 1.3600 in NY. Risk of break below 1.3600 handle is seen, but expect losses to be capped at 1.3558 support. Risk aversion is however still likely to creep up, and may likely lift the pair to the 1.3647 resistance.

USD/IDR 1M NDFs dipped towards 14100 handle on Friday from 14150+ levels at the start of Friday's Asian session. Onshore spot gapped lower to open at 14055 on Friday from previous close of 14089, some downside pressures seen due to the surprise trade surplus in October trade data, but pair rose to 14070+ later. BI possibly capped gains at 14100 for now. Trade deal uncertainty however remains, and upside pressures are likely to test 14115 resistance in the absence of any positive trade news.
USD/INR 1M NDFs extended the downside further on Friday, slipping to sub-71.900 levels from an open near 72.200 on Friday morning. Onshore spot retreated back below the 72 handle into the close on Thursday and opened at 71.800 on Friday. Pair remained close to the 71.800-levels on Friday. Authorities are under pressures to undertake economic reforms and support the dwindling economy, while global trade volatility also continues to weigh. The break below the 72 handle may still be fragile, and expect downside pressures to remain limited.

Data/Events Highlights:

Malaysia's Q3 GDP growth softened to a 13-quarter low of 4.4% y/y from 4.9% y/y in Q2 as the acceleration in domestic demand was unable to offset external pressures.

Indonesia's October exports continued to decline - down by 6.13% y/y - for a 12th consecutive month. Imports however weakened more sharply - down 16.39% y/y in October - reflecting weak domestic demand. But this helped trade balance to return to a small surplus of $161mn.

India's October exports decline was softer than market expectations at -1.1% y/y while imports were weaker at -16.3% y/y, resulting in a narrow trade deficit of USD 11.01bn.

Data/Events Ahead:

Singapore's October NODX and electronics exports will be released on Monday, and the final print of Q3 GDP is also due anytime from today through next Monday.

Thailand's Q3 GDP is also on tap today.

HK police have sealed off a university after an all-night stand-off with protestors, and there are rising fears of a crackdown.


18-25 November: SG: GDP (Q3 F) 4cast: 0.3% y/y [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: 0.1]

00:01 GMT / 08:01 SGT - UK: Rightmove House Price Index (Nov) % m/m [Prev: 0.6]

00:01 GMT / 08:01 SGT - UK: Rightmove House Price Index (Nov) % y/y [Prev: -0.2]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - SG: NODX - Electronics (Oct) 4cast: -25% y/y [Prev: -24.8]

00:30 GMT / 08:30 SGT - SG: NODX (Oct) 4cast: -12% y/y [Mkt: -7.6, Prev: -8.1]

02:30 GMT / 10:30 SGT - TH: GDP (Q3) 4cast: 2.9% y/y [Mkt: 2.7, Prev: 2.3]

05:30 GMT / 13:30 SGT - JP: Tokyo Department Store (Oct) % y/y [Prev: 20.7]

15:00 GMT / 23:00 SGT - US: NAHB Builders survey (Nov) [Mkt: 71, Prev: 71]

21:00 GMT / 05:00 SGT - US: Net Long-term TICS Flows (Sep) USD bn [Prev: -41.1]


17:00 GMT / 01:00 SGT - US: Fed's Mester speaks in Maryland

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