We expect an initial claims total of 255k in the week to Oct 15, a bounce of 9k from the 43 year lows seen in the last 2 weeks. Hurricane Matthew could assist a correction higher, while the Columbus Day holiday makes seasonal adjustments tricky.
This week is the survey week for Oct's non-farm payroll. Even with our projected upward correction, the 4 week average will be down from Sep and implying a healthy payroll increase.
Continued claims cover the week before initial claims and should remain low, falling by 6k to 2.04m, a fifth consecutive decline. DS