USD/CNY: 1Y NDFs traded sideways around 6.9065 in the NY trading hours, continuing a weakness than began in the Asian hours. Then, once again, onshore spot could not find much headway above 6.7400, managing only a high of 6.7409, from 6.7355 even after poor IP data. The authorities were seen continually on the upside once again. 1Y NDFs might have traded to a low of 6.9075 before the GDP release but bounced straight higher to original levels of 6.9170+ after IP data disappointed. Up move shows no sign of abating, though we would advise against joining crowded longs, especially with the authorities seen vigilant on the topside. Dips towards 6.7200 in onshore spot should be well bought now.
USD/CNH: Pair was seen trading on either side of 6.7420 in the overnight session, further lower from the near-6.7440 levels seen in Asia on Wednesday after poor China IP data was reported. Despite obvious buying interest, the CNH/CNY is now within only 50 pips. With the PBoC not willing to let 6.7500 go without a fight, we do not expect the spread to widen anytime soon.
USD/SGD: Pair was seen trading sideways around 1.3860 ahead of the China GDP data in the morning. Some downside pressure was noted after China GDP came in-line with expectations, but the pair was stalled at 1.3833, remaining supported above 1.3860 thereafter until last check. Strong support is seen at 1.3820 and we expect it to hold, although clearing 1.3870 is now the hurdle to recapturing the 1.3900 handle.
USD/IDR: 1M NDFs consolidated lower at 13050, below the 13095 peak in the Asian session. Spot was sold off to the 13000 handle in the morning, printing a 1-week low as the BI meeting kicked off. Pair however recovered slightly and was seen trading on either side of 13010 subsequently. Upside pressures are expected to return, and we expect support at 12900 to hold ahead of the BI meeting on Thursday.
USD/INR: 1M NDFs settled just below 66.9500 in the NY hours, retreating from the highs of 67.0500 seen in Asia earlier. Spot USD/INR gapped lower to open at 66.6800 vs last close of 66.7200 and slid to a 1-week low of 66.6500 while trading on either side of 66.7000. We expect the downside to remain limited and support is seen at 66.5000 ahead of the stronger 66.3250.
DATA RELEASED TODAY MORNING AND DUE TODAY
- n/a GMT - ID: BI - Overnight BI Rate (Oct 20) [Mkt: 5, Prev: 5]
- 00:30 GMT - AU: Employment (Sep) 4cast:-7.4 chg k [Mkt: 15, Prev: -3.9]
- 00:30 GMT - AU: NAB Business Confidence (Q3) [Prev: 6]
- 00:30 GMT - AU: Unemployment (Sep) 4cast:5.7 % [Mkt: 5.7, Prev: 5.6]
- 08:00 GMT - EU: Current Account (nsa) (Aug) [Prev: 31.5]
- 08:00 GMT - EU: Current Account (sa) (Aug) [Prev: 29.5]
- 08:00 GMT - TW: Export Orders (Sep) [Mkt: 2, Prev: 8.3]
- 08:30 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Sep) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.3]
- 08:30 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (ex Auto Fuel) (Sep) [Mkt: 4.4, Prev: 5.9]
- 08:30 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Sep) [Mkt: 0.3, Prev: -0.2]
- 08:30 GMT - UK: Retail Sales (inc Auto Fuel) (Sep) [Mkt: 4.8, Prev: 6.2]
- 11:45 GMT - EU: ECB - Deposit Rate (Oct 20) [Mkt: -0.4, Prev: -0.4]
- 11:45 GMT - EU: ECB - Refinancing Rate (Oct 20) [Mkt: 0, Prev: 0]
- 12:30 GMT - US: Initial Claims (Oct 15) 4cast:255 k [Mkt: 250, Prev: 246]
- 12:30 GMT - US: Philadelphia Fed Survey (Oct) 4cast:5 index [Mkt: 5.3, Prev: 12.8]
- 14:00 GMT - US: Existing home sales (Sep) 4cast:5.38 mn [Mkt: 5.35, Prev: 5.33]
- 14:00 GMT - US: Leading Indicator (Sep) [Mkt: 0.2, Prev: -0.2]
- 21:45 GMT - NZ: External Migration (sa) (Sep) [Prev: 5600]
EVENTS & AUCTIONS
- EU: ECB President Draghi gives press conference following interest rate announcement
- EU: EU Leaders Summit in Brussels (to 21st)
- 07:00 GMT - EU: EU's Timmermans Speaks in Brussels
- 09:30 GMT - EU: EU's Juncker & Tusk Speak in Maastricht
- 12:00 GMT - UK: BoE's Shafik Speaks in New York
- 12:30 GMT - US: Fed's Dudley Speaks in New York