Forex - European Highlights - Thursday 28 November 2019


 10:49 (GMT) 28 Nov

  [Forex Highlights]

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European Highlights

European Highlights - Thursday 28 November 2019 (0101-PVQT-C01)

28 November 2019

Asia FX and News:

+ U.K. Tories May Get 359 Seats; Labour 211 Seats ~ Times/YouGov

+ Trump Signed Hong Kong Bill, China Reiterates Retaliation Threat After Trump Signs H.K. Bill

+ GBP extended gains after YouGov poll predicts a big victory for PM Johnson. GBP/USD rose to 1.2950 before settling around 1.2930. EUR/GBP fell to 0.85 and corrected to 0.8510. Risk-off moves were triggered as Trump signed the HK bill. USD/JPY dipped below 109.50 but found support around 109.35. AUD the worst-hit G10 though losses are still fairly limited. CAD also softer. NZD/USD recouped the losses following an unexpectedly solid rebound in business confidence. AUD/NZD at 3-mth low. China reiterated warnings of countermeasures but no formal actions yet.

Nikkei and JGBs:

+ Nikkei -0.19%, JGB 10yr yield at -0.095%

Europe FX and news

+ GBP edged a little lower in Europe after rising sharply overnight on the YouGov poll news. While the poll firms up expectations of a Conservative majority if the polls continue to show the Conservatives 11 points ahead, it was in line with other estimates of the likely impact of an 11 point lead on seats. Odds are little changed.

q EUR/USD edged a little higher, perhaps helped by the strength of GBP/USD overnight, as any positive Brexit sentiment is also mildly EUR/USD positive. Eurozone M3 growth rose slightly to 5.6% but private sector loan growth was steady at 3.5%. The Eurozone business climate index was a little weaker than expected in November, equalling the lows of the year seen in September, but the business and consumer survey recovered slightly.

+ SEK moved a little lower as the consumer confidence data proved slightly disappointing, though retail sales were a little stronger than expected later in the morning.

+ Swiss Q3 GDP was stronger than expected, rising 0.4% q/q but had no significant impact on EUR/CHF which held just below 1.10.

Bonds and equities

+ Contained as would be expected heading into US holiday, though with equities slightly offered (Trump signs HK bill, China reiterates warnings), European bonds gain a touch of support, also briefly lifted by German state CPIs coming in on the soft side. Gilts shrug off poll suggesting strong majority for Conservatives at election. Dax -0.3%, bunds and gilts in around 1bp. BTPs leak a little into supply, especially 5s

Data

JP: Retail Sales (Oct) -14.4% m/m (Mkt: -10.5 Prev: 7.2R)

JP: Retail Sales (Oct) -7.1% y/y 4cast: -7.1% y/y (Mkt: -4.3 Prev: 9.2R)

NZ: ANZ Business Confidence (Nov) -26.4 points (Prev: -42.4)

AU: Private Capital Expenditure (Q3) -0.2% q/q 4cast: -0.2% q/q (Mkt: 0 Prev: -0.5)

N/A - BE: CPI (Nov) % m/m (Prev: 0.36)

06:45 GMT - CH: GDP (Q3) % q/q (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0.3)

06:45 GMT - CH: GDP (Q3) % y/y (Mkt: 0.8 Prev: 0.2)

08:00 GMT - ES: CPI (Nov P) % m/m (Mkt: 0.2 Prev: 1)

08:00 GMT - ES: Flash HICP (Nov P) % m/m (Mkt: 0.1 Prev: 0.7)

08:00 GMT - ES: Flash HICP (Nov P) % y/y (Mkt: 0.5 Prev: 0.2)

08:00 GMT - ES: CPI (Nov P) % y/y (Mkt: 0.4 Prev: 0.1)

08:00 GMT - SE: Consumer Confidence (Nov) (Mkt: 92.3 Prev: 92.7)

08:00 GMT - SE: Economic Tendency Survey (Nov) Index (Mkt: 93.4 Prev: 93.6)

08:00 GMT - SE: Manufacturing Confidence (Nov) (Mkt: 94.8 Prev: 96)

08:30 GMT - SE: Retail sales (sa) (Oct) % m/m (Mkt: 0 Prev: 0.3)

09:00 GMT - EU: M3 Money Supply (sa) (Oct) % y/y (Mkt: 5.5 Prev: 5.5)

10:00 GMT - EU: Consumer Confidence (Nov Final) (Prev: -7.2)

10:00 GMT - EU: Economic Confidence (Nov) (Mkt: 101 Prev: 100.8)

Still to be released:

13:00 GMT - DE: HICP (Nov P) % m/m (Mkt: -0.7 Prev: 0.1)

13:00 GMT - DE: CPI (Nov P) % m/m (Mkt: -0.6 Prev: 0.1)

13:00 GMT - DE: CPI (Nov P) % y/y (Mkt: 1.2 Prev: 1.1)

13:00 GMT - DE: HICP (Nov P) % y/y (Mkt: 1.1 Prev: 0.9)

13:30 GMT - CA: Current Account Balance (Q3) CAD bn (Mkt: -9.55 Prev: -6.38)

21:45 GMT - NZ: Building Permits (Oct) % m/m (Prev: 7.2)

23:30 GMT - JP: Job-to-Applicant Ratio (Oct) (Mkt: 1.56 Prev: 1.57)

23:30 GMT - JP: Unemployment (Oct) 4cast: 2.4% (Mkt: 2.4 Prev: 2.4)

23:50 GMT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) % m/m (Mkt: -2 Prev: 1.7)

23:50 GMT - JP: Industrial Production (Oct P) 4cast: -2.5% y/y (Mkt: -5.2 Prev: 1.3)

Events

00:00 GMT - US: Thanksgiving

03:30 GMT - EU: ECB's Villeroy speaks in Tokyo

15:30 GMT - EU: ECB's Hernandez de Cos speaks in Colombia

20:00 GMT - EU: ECB's Coeure speaks in Dublin


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