Forex - GOOD MORNING Latam! (FX HIGHLIGHTS BRL MXN ARS CLP COP PEN)...


 10:45 (GMT) 16 Apr

  [Forex Highlights]

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RECAP CURRENCIES, DATA AND EVENTS.

European FX and News -

GOOD MORNING Latam! (FX HIGHLIGHTS BRL MXN ARS CLP COP PEN)... (0100-ZCGQ-C01)

+ EUR/USD found some demand in Europe, no obvious catalyst behind the move to an eventual high at 1.2372. The move came despite France's FinMin Le Maire saying the current strikes are beginning to weigh on the economy, while the market remains inured to CFTC data showing the long EUR/USD position getting ever more stretched.

+ USD/JPY has been mainly inside 107.15/25 through the session, EUR/JPY doing all the chasing of EUR/USD.

+ Cable was initially left behind by EUR/USD but has since played catch-up and more, breaking above 1.4300 to put the YTD high at 1.4345 in the frame as EUR/GBP trades below .8650.

+ No great excitement elsewhere, all the commodity currencies holding in fairly tight ranges, EUR/NOK playing a small amount of catch up with EUR/SEK

Bonds and Equities -

+ 1A 'sell the fact' reaction for core bonds, albeit lacking in follow through. Bunds push below 159 to new recent lows, DE10s held up by 0.545% resistance. Gilts take back Fri's late short covering, with 10s +3.55 back to near 1.48%. T.note has a small look through 50dma. Equities more subdued though giving less confirmation of risk-on, S&P still within last week's bests and European bourses largely flat. Periphery steadier than core, Spain in line with rest after Fri's expected Moody's upgrade.

US DATA

GOOD MORNING Latam! (FX HIGHLIGHTS BRL MXN ARS CLP COP PEN)... (0100-ZCGQ-C02)

On Monday we expect Mar retail sales to pick up from 3 straight marginal declines with a 0.4% increase, 0.2% ex auto but 0.4% ex auto and gasoline. Also due on Monday are Apr Empire State manufacturing data, Feb business inventories, Apr NAHB homebuilders data and later Feb TICS capital flows. Moderate Fed voter Bostic will speak.

Recap EMGE Europe

GOOD MORNING Latam! (FX HIGHLIGHTS BRL MXN ARS CLP COP PEN)... (0100-ZCGQ-C03)

Market participants probably engaged in some collective breath holding when they saw the news on Saturday morning, but while we can expect the newswires to remain busy there does not appear to be any imminent threat of further attacks on Syria, and trade is looking altogether more routine as the week gets under way. The RUB is a shade firmer with tax payments probably lending a hand, but with crude lower we expect that a push below 62.00 will prove tricky, while on the technicals a break below 61.00 will be needed to suggest the worst for the RUB may be over. That, of course, will also depend on the geo-political picture, with President Trump's early morning Twitter activity always something of a wildcard.


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