Forex - Preview: due 7 Dec - US Nov Employment [nonfarm payrolls]


 15:16 (GMT) 06 Dec

  [Economic Data]

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Nov payrolls to rise by 205k with an above trend month from retail weighing against hints of slowing in initial claims data.

Average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3%, unemployment to hold steady at 3.7%.

Preview: due 7 Dec - US Nov Employment [nonfarm payrolls] (0101-GNLG-C01)

We expect a 205k increase in Nov's non-farm payroll, which would be in line with the 6 month average. Initial claims are a little higher, perhaps influenced by the California wildfires and also the likelihood that growth will slow somewhat in Q4 from strong Q2 and Q3 paces.

Preview: due 7 Dec - US Nov Employment [nonfarm payrolls] (0101-GNLG-C02)

Goods employment, which was surprisingly strong in Oct, is particularly vulnerable to a slowing, given some recent manufacturing and housing sector data having come in weaker than expected (Nov's ISM manufacturing data an exception). However a late survey week and early Thanksgiving may help inflate retail above trend, a sector that was above trend in Oct's ADP breakdown. Catch up in retail may see payrolls outperform the 179k ADP increase in Nov).

Preview: due 7 Dec - US Nov Employment [nonfarm payrolls] (0101-GNLG-C03)

Nov also has a historic bias to be on the firm side of consensus, more so on a 5 year average than the 10 year. There may still be some recovery to be seen from the hurricanes of Sep and Oct, though in Oct the recovery from Sep's Hurricane Florence seemed to outweigh any negative impact from Oct's Hurricane Michael.

Preview: due 7 Dec - US Nov Employment [nonfarm payrolls] (0101-GNLG-C04)

We expect average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% after a slightly below trend Oct that only reached 0.2% due to it being rounded up. We expect Nov's gain to be 0.26% before rounding, with a late survey possibly supportive. This would be consistent with an unchanged 3.1% yr/yr pace.

Preview: due 7 Dec - US Nov Employment [nonfarm payrolls] (0101-GNLG-C05)

We expect the workweek to hold at 34.5 hours, consistent with most recent months with Sep's 34.4 depressed by Hurricane Florence and Jun's 34.6 unlikely to repeat if the economy is losing some momentum in Q4.

Preview: due 7 Dec - US Nov Employment [nonfarm payrolls] (0101-GNLG-C06)

Unemployment should remain at 3.7% for a third straight month even with employment likely to rise by slightly more than the labor force. Oct's rate was slightly above 3.7% before rounding, Sep's slightly below. Even with the economy slowing, the unemployment rate should have further to fall, if not as soon as Nov.


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