Forex - Preview: due 4 Jan - Canada Dec Employment

 15:55 (GMT) 03 Jan

  [Economic Data]

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Preview: due 4 Jan - Canada Dec Employment (0101-GZRW-C01)

After a very strong Nov release, and the BoC meeting on Jan 9, Dec's Canadian employment report will be closely watched. We expect a 25k increase, still healthy if well below Nov's 94.1k surge, but would caution over making strong conclusions on the release. Both Nov and Dec in 2017 produced very strong employment reports, before a sharp correction lower in Jan of 2018. With the Canadian economy likely to experience some short term difficulties on lower oil prices, even a 25k increase in employment may flatter the picture.

Preview: due 4 Jan - Canada Dec Employment (0101-GZRW-C02)

If the Dec data somewhat overstates the underlying picture in employment, it may do so on the labour force as well, so we look for a correction higher in unemployment as the labour force increases, by 0.1% to 5.7%. This would follow a 0.2% decline in Dec that took the rate down to 5.6%, the lowest since comparable data became available in 1976.

Preview: due 4 Jan - Canada Dec Employment (0101-GZRW-C03)

We expect the breakdown to show Dec's job growth led by part time work, as was the case in Nov and Dec of 2017, but not Nov of 2018 when most of the new jobs came in full time work. Recent months have seen slowing in hourly earnings for permanent employees, to 1.5% yr/yr in Nov from a high of 3.9% in May. This slowing is in part due to past strength dropping out, but with Dec 2017 data not having seen quite a modest monthly gain we expect yr/yr growth to correct a little higher, to 1.6%.

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