We expect a 1.1% increase in Dec industrial production with a 0.5% increase in manufacturing. The gain should be led by a 5.0% increase in utilities to correct 3 straight declines that appeared to be related to unusually mild weather. Mining, sensitive to oil prices, is moving higher again and we expect a 1.0% increase, the third straight.
Manufacturing output should increase by 0.5% after a 0.1% decline in Nov, led by a rebound in autos. For manufacturing ex autos we expect a more modest acceleration, to +0.3% from +0.1%. Payroll aggregate manufacturing hours worked and ISM manufacturing data both picked up in Dec.
Capacity utilization should rise to 75.7% from 75.3% overall while manufacturing increases to 75.1% from 74.8%, putting both back to levels last seen since Jul. DS