Press Coverage

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4CAST stays on top of Reuters FX accuracy league

Source: Reuters | 06 October 2010

4CAST retained its top position in the Reuters foreign exchange year-to-date accuracy league for the third month running in September thanks to its consistently accurate call on the yen.

4CAST has held the top spot for four months this year, scoring 842 points out of a maximum possible score of 1,350.

Last month most strategists expected the yen to weaken against the U.S. dollar, but 4CAST stuck to its view that the yen would gain further ground. The currency hit a 15-year high of 82.84 on Sept 15.

The euro proved to be the most difficult currency to predict in September as all 60 strategists in the poll saw it ending lower than its actual close of $1.363 on Sept 30.

"Looking ahead, we suspect that the EUR/USD exchange rate will remain under upward pressure," said Ray Attrill, Director of Research at 4CAST, in an email interview.


4CAST maintains top spot in FX year-to-date league

Author: Ruby Cherian

Source: Reuters | 02 September 2010

4CAST retained top place for a second month in the Reuters foreign exchange year-to-date accuracy league in August with close calls on the yen and sterling.

4CAST, which has now held the top rank three times this year…

Growing uncertainty about the global economic recovery and dovish comments from top G7 central bankers in August favoured safe-haven flows in currency markets.

"Going into July, August and September we expected there to be a fairly risk averse market tone that was going to favour the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc," said Ray Attrill, director of research at 4CAST…

4CAST has been the most accurate on the yen so far this year. Just two months ago no one had expected the yen to breach the 85 mark against the dollar.

"We felt that the market was probably too optimistic in its view of the UK economy and also what it would likely mean for how quickly the BoE would be exiting its current monetary policy setting," Attrill said.

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A good week of US data forecasting…

Author: 4Cast

16th – 20th August 2010

The art to reading 4CAST data previews is to always compare 4CAST with the market expectation.

4CAST analysts are striving to be as accurate as possible of course but as importantly, to make sure they are always on the right side of the median. This allows them to give a strong bias in their strategies as to whether the market will be surprised by a weaker or stronger number.

This week they were fairly pleased with the following results:

Data ReleaseMarket4CASTActual% Var
Leading Indicator0.10.1*0.1*0
PPI0.20.20.20
Industrial Production0.5110
Capacity Utilization74.67574.80.003
Housing Starts5605505460.007
Initial Claims4784955000.01
Housing Permits5805405650.044
NAHB1514130.077
Empire State86.57.10.085
PPI ex food and energy0.10.20.30.333
Philly Fed72.5-7.71.325