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May 17, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 17 May
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 7:37 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced in Europe but moved lower in North America in a day with little fresh news.  

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Preview: Due May 31 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to round down to 0.2%
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 4:04 PM UTC

April’s core PCE price index looks set to come in close to 0.25% before rounding, though we expect the index to be rounded down to 0.2%, while overall PCE prices are rounded up to 0.3%. We expect a subdued 0.2% increase in personal income to underperform a 0.4% increase in personal spending.

Chart USD/MXN Update: Under pressure
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 3:23 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a drift lower

FX Weekly Strategy: May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 3:18 PM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

Chart USD/CAD Update: Balanced at 1.3590/00 - studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 3:14 PM UTC

Still little change

Chart AUD/USD Update: Positive background studies to limit downside tests
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:46 PM UTC

The anticipated test of support within the 0.6650/68 area is giving way to fresh consolidation

Chart USD/JPY Update: Further gains to remain limited
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

Intraday gains have met anticipated selling interest just beneath congestion resistance at 156.00

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Gains to remain limited
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:15 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 104.50 has given way to a break to 104.80

Preview: Due May 30 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit trending higher
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

We expect April’s advance goods trade deficit to sustain a slowly deteriorating trend, with the deficit rising to $93.0bn from $90.5bn, reaching its highest level since April 2023.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating gains - background studies remain positive
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 10:27 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade following the test of resistance at the 1.4820 Fibonacci retracement

Psychology for major markets May 17th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 10:10 AM UTC

Underlying USD tone remains a little negative as yields edge lower, despite modest rally today. EUR/CHF hitting new 1 year highs

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

This Week's Fed Speaker
U.S. April PPI Demonstrates Worrying strength
But U.S. CPI and Retail Sales are Seeing Some Loss of Momentum
UK Labor Market Shows Further Signs of Resilient Wage Pressure
Lopsided Growth and New Housing Measures For China

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 17th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 9:14 AM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

Chart USD/CHF Update: Limited tests higher
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 8:06 AM UTC

The test of support at 0.9000 and the 0.8980 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a minor bounce

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating - background studies continue to rise
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 7:38 AM UTC

Little change, as falling intraday studies and a tick lower in overbought daily stochastics extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 1.0900

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - potential for a later test above 1.2700
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

Little change, as falling intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

JPY, GBP flows: JPY soft, GBP awaits Mann speech
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

USD/JPY higher after Ueda and BoJ operations discourage tightening expectations. BoE hawk Mann has more power to weaken than strengthen GBP

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China: Lopsided Growth and New Housing Measures
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

Overall, the April industrial production suggests Q2 GDP should be reasonable, but weak retail sales suggests H2 2024 can be disappointing. We stick with a 4.6% forecast for 2024 GDP growth.    

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 17th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 5:05 AM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

AUD/USD flows: Stronger dollar, weaker sentiment
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 5:02 AM UTC

China April y/y March Industrial output +6.7% and Retail sales +2.3%
China April new house prices -0.6% m/m 

USD/JPY flows: Following USD moves
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 4:36 AM UTC

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says he has no immediate plan to sell the Bank's ETF holdings

Chart GBP/USD Update: Lower in consolidation from the 1.2700/10 resistance
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:52 AM UTC

Settled back from test of the 1.2700/10 resistance

Chart EUR/USD Update: Lower in consolidation below 1.0900 level
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:44 AM UTC

Turned lower in consolidation below the 1.0900 level as prices unwind the overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Turned up in consolidation from 153.60 low
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 12:59 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 154.00 level with bounce at the 153.60 low retracing pullback from the 156.78 high

Chart NZD/USD Update: Paused at the .6135/50 congestion area
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 12:40 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation from test of the .6135/50 congestion area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating below .6700 level, room for higher later
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 12:11 AM UTC

No follow-through on break above the .6700 level as prices settled back in consolidation from the .6714 high

May 16, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 17th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

North American Summary and Highlights 16 May
Freemium Article

May 16, 2024 7:45 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally firmer, though most clearly so versus the JPY and CHF.  

U.S. Fed's Mester - Prudent to hold rates for longer, but welcomes April CPI
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 5:45 PM UTC

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3590/00 - studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

May 16, 2024 3:37 PM UTC

Little change, as unwinding oversold intraday studies and flattening oversold daily stochastics turn near-term sentiment cautious

Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. May S&P PMIs - Slippage seen, particularly in Manufacturing
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 3:26 PM UTC

We expect May’s S and P PMIs to show slippage, manufacturing quite significantly to 48.5 from 50.0, but services only marginally to 51.0 from 51.3. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 17th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 3:14 PM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

Chart AUD/USD Update: Meeting sellers above 0.6700 - downside to remain limited
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:40 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have met selling interest just above congestion around 0.6700

U.S. April Industrial Production - Underlying picture looks flat
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:31 PM UTC

April industrial production was unchanged with a downward revision to March offset by an upward revision to February. Manufacturing was weak at -0.3% though outside a negative correction in autos the drop was only 0.1%, leaving a fairly flat underlying picture. 

Chart USD/JPY Update: Smart bounce, but gains to remain limited
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:18 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 155.00 has bounced smartly from congestion support at 154.00

Brazil: Possible Impacts of the Floods
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:07 PM UTC

Unprecedented floods in Rio Grande do Sul, a state that contributes 6.4% to Brazil's GDP and 13.3% to its agricultural production, have submerged several cities. The immediate halt in economic activity may reduce Brazil's Q2 GDP by up to 0.4%. The federal government is increasing aid, potentially ra

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Limited gains from the 104.25 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:05 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support at the 104.25 Fibonacci retracement

U.S. Initial Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed - No real surprises but consistent with a modest slowing
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

The latest data is all close to consensus, initial claims partially correcting a sharp rise last week, housing starts correcting a sharp fall last month but permits seeing a second straight dip while the Philly Fed corrected from a strong preceding month but remains positive.  All this is consisten

USD flows: USD continues recovery after data
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 12:59 PM UTC

The USD has extended gains after the claims and Philly Fed, but upside looks quite limited

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Fresh 2024 highs - pressuring resistance at the 1.4820 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 10:19 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have extended to fresh 2024 highs

Psychology for major markets May 16th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 10:08 AM UTC

USD softer post-CPI 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 16th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 8:59 AM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

Chart USD/CHF Update: Pressuring 0.8980/00 - room for lower
Freemium Article

May 16, 2024 8:06 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support at 0.9000 and the 0.8980 Fibonacci retracement

Chart EUR/USD Update: Strong resistance at the 1.0930 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 7:42 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached congestion resistance at 1.0900

Chart GBP/USD Update: Strong resistance at the 1.2755 Fibonacci retracement
Freemium Article

May 16, 2024 7:29 AM UTC

Late-April gains have reached congestion resistance at 1.2700

USD, JPY, EUR, NOK flows: NOK and JPY remain attractive
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 6:33 AM UTC

The dip in the NOK after this morning's GDP data looks like a buying opportunity. JPY strength has further to go.

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 16th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 5:05 AM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly softer CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD unlikely to move far on employment data

AUD/USD flows: Mixed jobs report evaporize early gains
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 5:03 AM UTC

Australian April unemployment rate 4.1% vs. 3.9% expected

USD/JPY flows: Preliminary GDP Deep in the Red
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 4:48 AM UTC

Japan's annualized Q1 GDP -2.0% vs -1.5% expected