View:
France and Japan: Debt Fuelled Growth Problem
May 16, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Most of the surge in debt/GDP in Japan and 40% in France is due to higher government debt and this should not be a binding constraint provided that large scale QT is avoided – we see the ECB slowing QT in 2025 and are skeptical about BOJ QT in the next few years. The adverse impact of higher deb
Asset Allocation 2024: Tricky Seven Months Remaining
May 10, 2024 1:06 PM UTC
Fed easing expectations for 2025 and 2026 can shift from a terminal 4% Fed Funds rate towards 3%, as the U.S. economy slows due to lagged tightening effects. Combined with Fed easing starting in September this should mean a consistent decline in 2yr yields. However, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields wil
China Equities: A Tactical Play
May 8, 2024 2:20 PM UTC
China equities can see a tactical bounce of 5-10% in the coming months. Cheap valuations and underweight global fund positions means that the scale of pessimism only has to get less bad on the economy and China authorities attitude towards businesses. While we see a tactical opportunity, we do
FOMC Preview For May 1: Signaling Concern on Inflation, Tapering Quantitative Tightening
April 25, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on May 1 and rates look sure to remain at the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. The statement is likely to see some adjustments to reflect recent disappointment on inflation while repeating that more confidence on inflation moving towards target is needed before easing. I
Bank of Canada Minutes Look to Gradual Easing, Divided on When to Start
April 24, 2024 6:44 PM UTC
Bank of Canada minutes from the April 10 meeting confirm a greater confidence on inflation falling, though there is disagreement within the Governing Council over when policy easing will become appropriate. There was agreement that easing would probably be gradual given the risks to the outlook and
The Pulse of the Nation: Insights into India's 2024 Election
April 22, 2024 7:54 AM UTC
As India braces itself for the upcoming elections, the political landscape is rife with anticipation, strategy, and uncertainty. With the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeking to consolidate its power and a diverse coalition of opposition forces vying for a chance to unseat them, the stage is
Preview: Due May 31 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to round down to 0.2%
May 17, 2024 4:04 PM UTC
April’s core PCE price index looks set to come in close to 0.25% before rounding, though we expect the index to be rounded down to 0.2%, while overall PCE prices are rounded up to 0.3%. We expect a subdued 0.2% increase in personal income to underperform a 0.4% increase in personal spending.
