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May 17, 2024

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Preview: Due May 31 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to round down to 0.2%
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May 17, 2024 4:04 PM UTC

April’s core PCE price index looks set to come in close to 0.25% before rounding, though we expect the index to be rounded down to 0.2%, while overall PCE prices are rounded up to 0.3%. We expect a subdued 0.2% increase in personal income to underperform a 0.4% increase in personal spending.

Chart USD/MXN Update: Under pressure
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May 17, 2024 3:23 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a drift lower

FX Weekly Strategy: May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 3:18 PM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

Chart USD/CAD Update: Balanced at 1.3590/00 - studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 3:14 PM UTC

Still little change

Chart AUD/USD Update: Positive background studies to limit downside tests
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:46 PM UTC

The anticipated test of support within the 0.6650/68 area is giving way to fresh consolidation

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Further gains to remain limited
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May 17, 2024 1:40 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at the 169.39 weekly high of 26 April

Chart USD/JPY Update: Further gains to remain limited
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May 17, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

Intraday gains have met anticipated selling interest just beneath congestion resistance at 156.00

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Gains to remain limited
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May 17, 2024 1:15 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 104.50 has given way to a break to 104.80

Preview: Due May 30 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit trending higher
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May 17, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

We expect April’s advance goods trade deficit to sustain a slowly deteriorating trend, with the deficit rising to $93.0bn from $90.5bn, reaching its highest level since April 2023.

Chart USD/TRY Update: Extending consolidation - background studies under pressure
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May 17, 2024 12:14 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at the 32.4000 break level

Psychology for major markets May 17th
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May 17, 2024 10:10 AM UTC

Underlying USD tone remains a little negative as yields edge lower, despite modest rally today. EUR/CHF hitting new 1 year highs

This week's five highlights
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May 17, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

This Week's Fed Speaker
U.S. April PPI Demonstrates Worrying strength
But U.S. CPI and Retail Sales are Seeing Some Loss of Momentum
UK Labor Market Shows Further Signs of Resilient Wage Pressure
Lopsided Growth and New Housing Measures For China

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 17th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 9:14 AM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - potential for a later test above 1.2700
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

Little change, as falling intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Extending gains to the 197.40/198.00 resistance
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 7:15 AM UTC

 Rebound at the 195.00 level see pressure returning to the upside to extend gains from the 191.30 low

JPY, GBP flows: JPY soft, GBP awaits Mann speech
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May 17, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

USD/JPY higher after Ueda and BoJ operations discourage tightening expectations. BoE hawk Mann has more power to weaken than strengthen GBP

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China: Lopsided Growth and New Housing Measures
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

Overall, the April industrial production suggests Q2 GDP should be reasonable, but weak retail sales suggests H2 2024 can be disappointing. We stick with a 4.6% forecast for 2024 GDP growth.    

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Remains in consolidation below 104.00 high
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May 17, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

Bounce from the 102.80 low see pressure returning to the 104.00 high 

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Choppy in consolidation above the 1.6218 low
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May 17, 2024 6:18 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above the 1.6218 low

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Under pressure, 1.0900 level at risk
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May 17, 2024 6:06 AM UTC

Break of the 1.0950 support extending the broader losses from the 1.1030 YTD high to reach the 1.0900 level

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 May
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 5:11 AM UTC

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says he has no immediate plan to sell the Bank's ETF holdings

Chart USD/INR Update: Still supported above 83.4425/83.4000 area
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May 17, 2024 5:06 AM UTC

Leaning lower from the 83.5350 high but the downside still limited

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 17th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 5:05 AM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

AUD/USD flows: Stronger dollar, weaker sentiment
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 5:02 AM UTC

China April y/y March Industrial output +6.7% and Retail sales +2.3%
China April new house prices -0.6% m/m 

USD/JPY flows: Following USD moves
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May 17, 2024 4:36 AM UTC

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says he has no immediate plan to sell the Bank's ETF holdings

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending bounce from 7.2040 low
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May 17, 2024 4:16 AM UTC

Bounce from the 7.2040 low through the 7.2200 level see pressure returning to the 7.2340 high of February

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Consolidating losses to the 15914 low
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May 17, 2024 3:07 AM UTC

Steadied at the 15914 low and bounce there see prices consolidating losses from the 16132 high

Chart USD/THB Update: Corrective bounce from 36.04 Fibonacci level
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May 17, 2024 2:57 AM UTC

 Turned up from test of the 36.04, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending bounce from 1343.00 support
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May 17, 2024 2:25 AM UTC

Extending bounce from the 1343.00 support and regaining the 1350.00 level opens up stronger bounce 

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending corrective bounce from 1.3420 low
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 2:09 AM UTC

Losses through the 1.3450 support saw deeper pullback checked ahead of the 1.3415, 50% Fibonacci level

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Rebound return focus to 169.40 resistance
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:31 AM UTC

Extending rebound from the 167.33 low to regain the 168.00 level to return focus to the 169.40 resistance

Chart USD/JPY Update: Turned up in consolidation from 153.60 low
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 12:59 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 154.00 level with bounce at the 153.60 low retracing pullback from the 156.78 high

Chart NZD/USD Update: Paused at the .6135/50 congestion area
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 12:40 AM UTC

Settled back in consolidation from test of the .6135/50 congestion area

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating below .6700 level, room for higher later
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 12:11 AM UTC

No follow-through on break above the .6700 level as prices settled back in consolidation from the .6714 high

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
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May 17, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the greenback followed the post CPI drop initially before rebounding in the New York session. KRW saw the largest gains of 1.79%, followed by THB 1.09%, IDR 0.65%, TWD 0.61%, MYR 0.5%, PHP 0.12% and HKD 0.11%; the biggest losers are

May 16, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 17th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating test of 1.3590/00 - studies leaning lower
Freemium Article

May 16, 2024 3:37 PM UTC

Little change, as unwinding oversold intraday studies and flattening oversold daily stochastics turn near-term sentiment cautious

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 17th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 3:14 PM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

Chart AUD/USD Update: Meeting sellers above 0.6700 - downside to remain limited
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:40 PM UTC

Anticipated gains have met selling interest just above congestion around 0.6700

U.S. April Industrial Production - Underlying picture looks flat
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:31 PM UTC

April industrial production was unchanged with a downward revision to March offset by an upward revision to February. Manufacturing was weak at -0.3% though outside a negative correction in autos the drop was only 0.1%, leaving a fairly flat underlying picture. 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

The break below 168.00 has bounced smartly from congestion support at 167.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Smart bounce, but gains to remain limited
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:18 PM UTC

The anticipated break below 155.00 has bounced smartly from congestion support at 154.00

Brazil: Possible Impacts of the Floods
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May 16, 2024 1:07 PM UTC

Unprecedented floods in Rio Grande do Sul, a state that contributes 6.4% to Brazil's GDP and 13.3% to its agricultural production, have submerged several cities. The immediate halt in economic activity may reduce Brazil's Q2 GDP by up to 0.4%. The federal government is increasing aid, potentially ra

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Limited gains from the 104.25 Fibonacci retracement
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:05 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached support at the 104.25 Fibonacci retracement

U.S. Initial Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed - No real surprises but consistent with a modest slowing
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

The latest data is all close to consensus, initial claims partially correcting a sharp rise last week, housing starts correcting a sharp fall last month but permits seeing a second straight dip while the Philly Fed corrected from a strong preceding month but remains positive.  All this is consisten

USD flows: USD continues recovery after data
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 12:59 PM UTC

The USD has extended gains after the claims and Philly Fed, but upside looks quite limited

Psychology for major markets May 16th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 10:08 AM UTC

USD softer post-CPI 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 16th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 8:59 AM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured